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XAU/USD - SHORT set-up Explained Using Chart PatternsIn this technical analysis I will break down the major things happening to GOLD at the moment. After hitting a recent all time high gold has been dropping ever since. First we found a very strong rejection and later a more sustainable and clear downtrend. There are currently two main technicals that I want to emphasize for this next trade. First of all we can see a descending parallel channel. This channel shows the slow average bearish sentiment that gold is enduring. This gives me a bearish bias on my next trades as well. Since we are seeing that the price is relatively high in this descending channel we can get a short trade in with a very good risk reward. The reward would travel all the way to the bottom and the risk would be a stop loss on a breakout of the top. Another symbol that is bearish is the head and shoulders that is most clearly seen on the 1H. In this 4H chart you can still see it relatively clearly. This is a bearish chart pattern. Together I believe these suggest a short trade set-up. All other info can be found on the chart. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trading-Guru
14
Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 19-23Gold replicated last week’s candle with just a difference in direction and a notable higher low on weekly timeframe, thus still remaining in consolidation/range bound. With the U.S presidential elections now mere 15 days away and a massive surge in new virus cases forcing most of the European countries into partial lockdown again, uncertainty is really spiking up now which should definitely bode well for the yellow metal. Movements in the asset classes are likely depicting a setup/speculative positioning as none are showing any sort of linear/paired move which usually happens when the markets are relatively calmer and it would be real harsh to blame any asset class for other’s direction in the given scenario. While on technical front gold remains safely pouched in bullish grip with breakouts remaining intact. To watch next week – Stimulus talks, earnings and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold mirrored last week’s move but on the downside ending just shy of $1900. A close below $1900 might raise eyebrows again but as mentioned earlier gold had likely found its actual demand zone near $1850s which was its recent low and that this crucial support area ($1920s) might now be not that very superlative. As breakouts remain in play along with 20 day moving average being respected in every fall it clearly indicates the trend which is bullish. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1901. If this is crossed it can move towards $1921. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1945. 2. Short trades still remain outcast as supports are held. Bullish view – Bulls failed to hold onto $1900 ending the week just shy of it as the dollar had a green week though this relation might not hold any meaning as markets are busy positioning themselves for the next big event which should cause extreme volatility. This close should not be treated as a gloomy picture at all as the deeper supports/demand zone continues to hold along with pattern breakouts remaining intact. While technically gold remains bullish, fundamentals aiding higher prices continue to pour in as uncertainty and chaos engulfs the world again with virus cases hitting the highest daily count forcing many countries to reimpose strict restrictions which should dent the already slow economic recovery. Bearishness remains off the table in such uncertain environment. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1914 for the targets of $1921 and $1945 with a stop loss placed below $1905. Longer term target $1963. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Silver in Uptrend channel.Silver (Spot) - Short term - We look to Buy Trading within a Corrective Channel formation. Prices have reacted from 23.58. The trend of higher lows is located at 24.00. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels resulting in improved risk/reward. Pivot resistance is at 25.53. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 25.53 and 26.50 Resistance: 24.55 / 25.21 / 25.53 Support: 24.00 / 23.75 / 23.51
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by Signal_Centre1
Gold Intraday Setup.Gold - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1910 (stop at 1915) Prices have reacted from 1910. This has resulted in a large symmetrical triangle formation being posted on the intraday chart. The trend of lower highs is located at 1910. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 1910, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 1893 and 1849 Resistance: 1927 / 1992 / 2075 Support: 1849 / 1763 / 1690
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Signal_Centre1
COFFEE FUTURE : POTENTIALLY SOMETHING BIG TO COMEENGLISH - Prices have been evolving below a bearish trendline, registering lower highs but no significant new market bottoms since May 2011. The long-term trend is then neutral. - However, even though prices have still been consolidating laterally over the last year, they also managed to clear their bearish trendline by successfully rebounding multiple times over the 87.00/103.75 zone, registering what looks like a reversal rounding bottom pattern . In addition, volumes have been on the rise during all the testing phase of the support zone while the DMI shows an increasing bullish pressure inside a more and more directional movement. - It is still hard to talk about a strong bullish reversal here as the market hasn’t registered any new highs. However, this year’s bullish breakout tells us the bearish trend is now over while positive signs on technical indicators (transaction volumes and DMI) demonstrate buyers ‘interest for the asset. It seems the slow dance around the strong psychological and technical level of 100.00 has been an opportunity for bull traders to try to regain control of the market. In this configuration, the bullish scenario remains the most likely but a market close below the 103.75/95.00 zone would invalidate or, at least, delay the bullish potential towards 140.00, 172.00, 198.00 and 224.00 by extension. NB : Coffee has been overperforming the Bloomberg Commodity Index since October 2019 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ FRENCH - Les prix ont évolué sous une ligne de tendance baissière, enregistrant des sommets de plus en plus bas mais aucun nouveau creux de marché significatif depuis mai 2011. La tendance long-terme est donc neutre. - Cependant, même si les prix ont consolidé latéralement au cours des dernières années, ils ont également réussi à s’affranchir de leur ligne de tendance baissière de long-terme en rebondissant à de multiples reprises au-dessus de la zone 87.00/103.75, en s’inscrivant dans ce qui semble être une figure haussière de creux en soucoupe. De plus, les volumes ont été en hausse durant toute la phase de test de la zone support alors que le DMI affiche une pression acheteuse grandissante au sein d’un mouvement de plus en plus directionnel. - Il est toujours compliqué de parler d’un fort renversement à la hausse alors que le marché n’a toujours pas effectué de plus haut significatif. Cependant, le franchissement technique de cette année nous confirme que la tendance baissière de long-terme est désormais terminée alors que les signes positifs rapportés par les indicateurs techniques (volumes de transaction et DMI) nous démontrent un regain d’intérêt des acheteurs pour l’actif. Il semblerait que la lente dance des prix autour du niveaux technique et psychologique fort des 100.00 a été une opportunité pour les acheteurs de tenter de reprendre le contrôle du marché. Dans cette configuration, le scénario haussier reste le plus probable mais toute clôture de marché en-dessous de la zone 103.75/95.00 invaliderait ou, du moins, diffèrerait le potentiel haussier vers 140.00, 172.00, 198.00 puis 224.00 par extension. NB : le café superforme l’indice Bloomberg des matières premières depuis Octobre 2019.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by PierreVeyret
Gold Bullish Sentiment Personality, I feel that we have met the GOLD bottom for the year. Possibly forever. Well, my $1830 target 🎯 missed by $12, but that's OK. So, why do I think the bottom is in the past? Dollar Devaluation The US Fed has devalued the dollar through a number of tools. This has and will have an effect on the equity & commodity markets. See, when the dollar is weak, the equity markets will rally - this has an implication that there will be no stock market crash any time soon. How the FED actions affect the market - -> In addition to this, as long as the equity markets rally and DXY remains weak Gold, silver, lumber, and agricultural futures will rally. Dollar Devaluation impact - - > Gold & Silver as a store for value. It's no secret that the DXY currently isn't the best for storing value as a reserve currency. Near-term bonds & yields are also at record low levels hence making it unattractive for hedge funds to stick to the traditional 60:40 portfolio allocation models as central banks are already flirting with the possibility of negative interest rates. So, what can they use as a store for value? [* Mining If you follow gold mining, you already know that there has been no gold discovery recently. This translated to basic demand-supply economics means that the price might shoot up. See, gold demand is going to rise in 2021. Last month's delivery of gold from futures was high and this is going to rapidly rise as we approach the December deadline for the GC1! continuous futures. You could also trade the VANECK gold miners ETF for a nice highly correlated compounding trade. CFTC COT WEEKLY DATA Hedge funds remaining bullish with record high net positions seen from last week's report with 323k long positions open. On the other hand, we are in volatile times, therefore, be careful. We are not yet out of the woods. Price is currently testing a breakout from a descending wedge. If it successfully stays above the $1912 support level, it's safe to assume that $1960 and $2000 are the next targets. If you agree with the idea, like or leave a comment below 👍🏿 👍🏿
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 12-16Gold printed another green candle on back of dollar weakness ending the week not only above $1900 but above the crucial level of $1920s which tends to be the gatekeeper for the further price movement. As ever so important event of U.S election draws closer volatility will continue to ramp up irrespective of the nature of news flow rather even small things will be looked through magnifying glass just for the sake of speculation which definitely suggests that gold will remain in an uptrend due to its safe haven status. The ongoing fundamental issues like geopolitical tensions and round two of the pandemic continues to keep the world enveloped in uncertainty while on the vaccine front October is a critical month as most of the trial results are due this month. Net net all factors remain supportive of the bullishness. To watch next week – Earnings, Fedspeak, Brexit talks and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold closed above the important $1920s level broadly on account of a falling dollar clearly suggesting the ongoing trend as all dips towards supports are being bought. The bounce from the 20 day moving average defines a short term low and likely cracks open the deeper demand zone. Again last week gold broke out from the triangle/wedge which poses as a sufficient cause of bullishness apart from the ongoing concerns and the broader chart which is extremely bullish unless it turns otherwise which is a low probability. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1945. If this is crossed it can move towards $1963. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1989. 2. Bearish bets remains isolated as gold closed above the support except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls came roaring back as gold closed above the important level of $1920 as dollar remained in downtrend. Not only did the bulls manage to close above the crucial support but also made another breakout from triangle/wedge on daily timeframe showcasing their prowess. Factors/fundamentals promoting bullishness remains intact rather it just adds on every week like the surge in virus cases across the globe and the ongoing Asian drama. Technicals remain largely supportive of higher prices due to pattern breakouts and supports being respected. Till November 03 event all asset classes will likely remain volatile with gold benefiting the most out of this scenario. Bears remain exiled as the gold closed above the support. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1936 for the targets of $1945 and $1963 with a stop loss placed below $1925. Longer term target $1989. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
1
Gold breaking out again, but wait...The Gold GC1! Weekly chart shows a repeated pattern where a corrective wave forms a wedge and then breaks out. This has had happened previously, and it is followed by a relatively strong bull rally. Also plotted are the net positions of the Non-Commercials and the Top 8 Traders, according to CFTC data. And again, it shows a repeated pattern where there is a breakout of Non-Commercials net positions (Orange line, lower panel) with a concomitant breakdown of Top 8 Traders net positions (Yellow line, lower panel). The cyan horizontal lines mark the week where the breakouts occur, and you can see the repeated pattern. One observation is that in the last two times, MACD cross up occured after retracement to near the zero line. This time, all else appearing similar, the MACD is falling with momentum instead of crossing up. This could be an indicator to suggest that this breakout might be limited, and could be the last one before resumption of further downside. At this point, it is worth a cautionary note, which otherwise, appear to see Gold being on a bullish breakout.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 05-09Gold retraced back almost 50% of last week’s loss as uncertainty continued to weigh in and with U.S elections not being even a month away the volatility will continue to muddle investment instruments. Again with gold seemingly looking a bit torn down post the fall below $1920s, fundamentals continue pouring in support and this time its a massive cause of uncertainty in form of U.S President Donald Trump being diagnosed with the novel coronavirus which will definitely impact forthcoming elections thus generating wide array of speculative bets across asset classes. On the ongoing crisis as in the pandemic, new infections are rising at a very rapid speed compared to a month before in almost every corner of the world signalling more economic pain ahead with no vaccine in sight in the near term while on geopolitical front things haven’t taken a backseat either which only adds to uncertainty if not anything else. To watch next week – Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, Powell’s speech, Stimulus talks and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold immediately made a green candle after a big red one suggesting the trend might not have changed at all even after the break of crucial support of $1920s rather it continues to remain in an uptrend as the 20 day moving average was tested and the price bounced back. The breakout from inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact as it also got tested during the fall clearly pointing towards a next leg up till the support holds. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1901. If this is crossed it can move towards $1921. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1945. 2. Bearish bets might have finally received a wake up call but again the support was held keeping the trend bullish except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls managed a near 50% recovery of past week’s loss mainly on back of increased uncertainty caused by the nearing presidential elections along with the rise in rate of infections across the globe as the pandemic intensifies. For bulls, forgoing $1920s might just be a step backwards to prepare for the next set of rally as across the table all factors be it technical or fundamentals remain largely supportive as it is the best safe haven at the moment with dollar looking comparatively weak. For the price to keep moving higher, bulls need to defend the supports while aiming for fresh highs. Bears yet again got duped as the supports were held and price bounced back higher. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1921 for the targets of $1945 and $1963 with a stop loss placed below $1908. Longer term target $1989. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
4
Iron Ore - where to next?Thanks for viewing. This will just be a short one. My reasons for bearishness are: - bearish RSI divergence (higher price high shown as a lower high on the RSI - at a minimum indicates reduced momentum but normally precedes changes in price direction), - MACD histogram is trending downward quite steeply, - MACD moving averages look like they are starting to head towards a cross-over to the downside, - Declining volume over the past 18 months (seems to average over 400 in May 2019 and is about 120 now), - A generalised global industrial slowdown. I may be wrong, or I may be right but just too early, and there may be residual upside remaining. Medium term I see price heading back to ~$40 level. Protect those funds.
COMEX:TIO1!Short
by flyinkiwi10
MCX Aluminium Intraday Tips For TodayAccording to this chart, aluminium is moving flat under the rectangle pattern. The top of this rectangle is the resistance , and the bottom of this rectangle is the support . The trend is making frequent parallel channels between the support and resistance of this rectangle. At present, aluminium is playing into support trendline (B) . There is a crucial support. Fakeout, volume spike, tail, massive buying pressure, and S-RSI crossover is made in that area. So, break out of the crucial support means downfall for the levels of 143.6 - 142.6 . ...but aluminium will try to climb because of 50 & 10 MA crossover. Therefore we may see prices at 146.6 - 147.4 - 148+ soon.
MCX:ALUMINIUM1!Long
by freestocktips
Elliott Wave View: Support Area for SilverElliott Wave View of Silver (XAG) suggests the cycle from September 1 high has ended as wave (1) at 25.82 low. From there, the metal bounce higher in wave (2). The correction unfolded as zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Up from wave (1) low, wave A ended at 27.48 high. The dip in wave B ended at 26.54 low. Afterwards, the metal resumed higher and ended wave C at 27.60 high. This ended wave (2) in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the decline lower. Down from wave (2) high, wave 1 ended at 26.26 low. The subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 26.98 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 27.43 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 26.69 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 26.94 high. The push lower in wave ((v)) ended at 26.26 low. The metal then bounced higher in wave 2, which ended at 27.22 high. Afterwards, the metal resumed lower in wave 3, which ended at 23.67 low. The bounce in wave 4 ended at 25.24 high. Currently, wave 5 is in progress. As long as 27.60 stays intact, expect the bounces in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside. The 100 – 161.8% extension from August 7 high is at 18.36 – 22.39 area. If reached, that area can see support for 3 waves bounce at least.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast