Gold-ing down...Not something to short, but finally an opportunity to get ready for a second bite of the cherry, if not the last stop to boar the train is coming up... this expected pullback (mentioned before that it can pull back as deep at 1400-1600 technically, despite all rational reasoning) mane deeper than expected. Regardless, it allows an opportunity to look for entry points.
Technically, there has been a series of lower highs, albeit a lack of lower lows for now. It is resting at a horizontal support as well as the triangle support. Later next week, with a risk to break out of the triangle, and breakdown below 1910 (also meeting the 55EMA orange line support), it would be clear as daylight that Gold is retracing and not consolidating.
Other technicals suggest more downside to follow, for example, the MACD has crossed down in the bear territory. Other correlations include a strong bullish divergence of the USD to put downside pressure on USD denominated commodities like gold and oil (Crude oil gave way first).
1800 is the immediate target over the next two weeks. Watch for it.
By the way, the white arrows indicate my last trade entry and exit points. I walk my talk.
Commodity
Buy The Dip - Trading 101After the hard crash of the stock markets (and cryptocurrency markets) we've seen gold suddenly take a big plunge. Obviously, you remember your trading lessons and you don't panic sell here. Instead, you buy the dip.
I marked a yellow area on this chart where I highlight the area I would still feel comfortable buying. If the price goes above $1940 a new uptrend might have started towards $2000 and I would say you missed the train.
Make sure to always have proper risk-reward for your trades. Don't buy too far in the middle between support and resistance.
I suggest a nice long trade here towards the ~$2000 region with a buy close to support around ~$1920. Good luck!
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Disclaimer!
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Elliott Wave View: Further Correction in Gold Still PossibleGold 1 hour chart below shows that the metal has ended the cycle from August 18 high in wave 1 at 1911.20 low. From there, the metal then bounced higher and ended wave 2 at 1994.06 high. The bounce unfolded as flat Elliott Wave Structure. From wave 1 low, wave ((a)) ended at 1962.18 high. Wave ((b)) then ended at 1902.30 low. The metal then extended higher in wave ((c)), which ended at 1994.06 high. This ended wave 2 in larger degree.
Down from wave 2 high, the metal has resumed lower in wave ((i)), which ended at 1921.66 low. The subdivision of wave ((i)) unfolded as 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (i) ended at 1955.70 low and the bounce in wave (ii) ended at 1967.45 low. Wave (iii) then ended at 1926.80 low and wave (iv) ended at 1945.94 high. The push lower in wave (v) ended at 1921.66 low. Currently, wave ((ii)) is in progress. While below 1994.06 high, expect bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside. However, gold needs to break below August 12 low to confirm that next leg lower has started. If that low is broken, then the target to the downside is the 100% extension from August 7 high at 1800 level.
Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 31 – Sept 04Gold finally had a green week after a gap of 14 days as U.S Fed reaffirmed its easing monetary policy rather it extended the timeline to few years from the earlier 2022 end. This move by the Fed indicates that the economic revival will be slow and painful as the pandemic is still creating fresh turbulence and will likely continue for sometime as historically seen during the Spanish Flu outbreak. Ample liquidity combined with bullish breakouts certainly makes gold the most desirable option mainly due to its safe haven class in times of uncertainty. Though the money from the dollar is also flowing towards equities pretty strongly as most world indices are hovering near/above all time highs, it might be getting fairly overstretched in terms of valuation and risk-reward and may well demand a pullback for further followup which again will be bullish for gold prices. The stage is set for gold to make a commendable move once again. To watch next week – Important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold posted its first weekly gains after the massive fall mainly on back of a lower dollar continuity which was confirmed by the Fed last week. The yellow metal at last broke out of the triangle consolidation which it was in for last 15 trading sessions signalling a fresh leg of upmove which should now test new highs. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1989. If this is crossed it can move towards $2008. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2033.
2. Short bets again go in limbo after the fresh bullish breakout except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls finally made a green bar as dollar continued to decline breaking out of the triangle consolidation. This breakout opens up a new wave of uptrend allowing the metal another run towards its pattern target of $2700 plus which can be deemed quite optimistic in short run but nonetheless it is the breakout target which should be achieved in mid-long term. Factors supporting higher gold prices remain ultra supportive as pandemic continues to wreck havoc on global economies and geopolitical tensions remain elevated with no signs of any near term respite. Technicals have turned super bullish after the breakout with price expected to test new highs.
Bearishness remains unmindful after the breakout.
On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1970 for the targets of $1989 and $2008 with a stop loss placed below $1955. Longer term target $2033.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Last Thoughts Before The Weekend - Gold's Most Important LevelsThe weekend is coming and in this analysis I wanted to share with you my final thoughts before the market closes.
For GOLD it will be very important to keep an eye on the resistance I marked in yellow. This is an area that brought lots of resistance over the last week.
Every time the price hit this level, the bulls were quickly chased away by the bears. Right now the price is at this level again.
When the price is close to a resistance zone, two things can happen. It can bounce back to lower levels such as a support zone, or it can break through and spike upwards with high volatility.
This happened already one time during a false breakout at the 27th of August.
In general, I find it not a good moment to buy your way into gold. The price is in the middle of the channel between the major support and resistance and therefore have bad risk reward going either direction. I will be keeping an eye on this smaller yellow resistance, and depending on what happens a direction might show itself.
For an explanation about the other levels, see my previous idea here
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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 24-28Gold made another $100 plus candle on back of a falling dollar nestled between the support and the resistance with actual movement being less than $5. Once again price movement reiterated the trend as the support remained firm with buying emerging at every dip. One can point out the rejection of $2000 but again it can be treated as flushing out retail longs before going higher which is often the case in every asset class. Coming to fundamentals, the globe remains challenged by the pandemic which maybe formally entering into 2nd wave as many countries are overwhelmed by a spike in fresh cases while geopolitical risks continue to weigh on the economies. On the positive side a new method of cure might be in place soon as early vaccine hopes remains dashed. Net net the scenario remains as it is rather its worsening which should augur well for gold. To watch next week – Jackson Hole Symposium and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold made an inside pin bar candle which suggests the low might be in and uptrend should restart once the high (of pin bar candle) is taken out. In another viewpoint it is in consolidation/flag which again will prove into a directive move once it breaks. With support being held in all the falls it is quite likely the breakout would happen on the upside as it is fundamentally supported as well. Also the inverse head and shoulders breakout remains respected adding to the bullish imprint. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1963. If this is crossed it can move towards $1989. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2008.
2. Short bets remain unwanted in such a scenario except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls fired up above $2000 after a five day gap but were unable to sustain as the price corrected back towards the support on back of a retracing dollar. The move may look ugly but its pleasantly bullish as the candle formed suggests a reversal and a near term bottom formation. The main factor moving the prices higher is the ample liquidity and its aftermath which should remain consistent till the end of 2022 or until the Fed takes a u-turn on its easing policy. As mentioned above the uncertainty surrounding global growth due to the pandemic remains a worrying factor along with the cross border tensions which should keep gold fundamentally lifted while technicals remain strongly supportive of higher prices with $2700 plus being a mid – longer term outlook.
Bearishness continues to remain out of context.
On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1945 for the targets of $1963 and $1989 with a stop loss placed below $1932. Longer term target $2008.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Soybean Meal Making A Bearish Flat - Elliott waveHello traders,
Soybean meal made a five-wave decline, down from 336.4 level, which is a strong indicator that bears are taking charge in the near-term. We can see a completed five-wave move at the end of May, when price started again recovering, however only for a three legged move. We believe a flat pattern is unfolding within a higher degree wave II now, because legs A and B have three sub-waves, and latest recovery, labelled as leg C is sharp and straight, in impulsive fashion.
Ideally, wave C of II will recover towards the Fib. ratio of 50.0 and 61.8 (310/312 level), where resistance will be seen, and a bigger, bearish reversal will resume its path.
Trade well,
The EW-forecast team
WTI Crude Oil Trading Strategy for this weekWTI Crude oil following the support trendline and dynamic resistance. At present, it's in an uptrend for short-term investors. According to this chart, the last descending triangle pattern is the broken upper side.
Still, we cannot trust this breakout because of excess at the support line. Buy position can initiate at 43 for 43.4 - 44 targets.
If WTI comes below descending resistance or at the red circle area, jump for 42 - 41.6 levels as a target.
Note: keep your eyes open at the uptrend channel.
I have updated a report on Gold on Sunday. Wherein I listed a few events/inventories that can affect to Bullion & Energy sector commodities. You must read that.
Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 17-21Gold had a huge week with a candle of over 180 points where it saw one of the biggest intraday fall lately all getting accounted for the overbought state of the metal since fundamentals didn’t change a bit nor did the dollar see a reversal in trend. This move, probably a historical one was largely a technical pullback/retest of previous highs as things were getting far too overstretched for any kind of risk reward to fit in nicely. Post the retest which was highly anticipated though not so swiftly the trend just gets stronger than ever as global situations remain murky since pandemic continues to wreck havoc and geopolitical tensions remain simmering. The week’s move may have irked a lot of bears as their hopes for a trend reversal were dashed at the similar speed at which they were cultivated. To watch next week – FOMC meeting minutes, earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold saw one of the swiftest and biggest intraday fall in recent times without much/none fundamental backing. The intensity of the move was such that interim supports were melting like a hot knife through butter but the agony was short lived as the price catapulted back after testing previous high which was always the expected scenario. This fall was definitely on cards as technicals were posing a corrective pattern but the ferocity and depth was a surprise which may have taken out most of the retail longs. Amidst all the gloom, a bullish pattern of inverse head and shoulders breakout likely got confirmed reaffirming the trend. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1963. If this is crossed it can move towards $1989. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2008.
2. Short bets still remain neglected except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls took a breather after 9 straight weeks of gains as the price corrected from highs mostly due to technical reasons. Overall the negativity was indeed a positive for the bulls as their tenacity got retested and the price resumed its upward journey. Not only the previous highs but the neckline of inverse head and shoulders was also retested pointing towards a sustained bull run as global tensions remain in similar state which they were a week back rather it is getting worse only. Fundamentals and technicals remain strongly in favor of higher prices with $2300 plus now seeming an attainable target in short-medium term.
Bearish bets were hooked in for a short while but failed to capitalize.
On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1945 for the targets of $1963 and $1989 with a stop loss placed below $1932. Longer term target $2008.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Usoil Looks ready to move to upside.!!! Buy setupHello Guys, This is a quick break down of the pair and my perspective on the market, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, what you would like to learn from me, or anything of value that you wanna share,All entry will be based on multiple confirmation as stated on the videos, I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist & use proper risk management.
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this was last week similar outlook still to upside i recommend watching it
Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 10-14Gold scooted past $2000 in another large ranged week as dollar continued its downtrend. Another milestone in matter of 3 weeks simply puts across a stern message regarding the trend and its follow through, this parabolic move does indicate a lot towards FOMO rally but again the precious metals basket got an overall lift when silver mobilized real hard suggesting the move is more of actual than a traditional retailer trap. When stimulus talks hit a bottleneck, a major cause of pullback last week, President Trump signed an executive order in the weekend providing much needed relief which again should set the course back to a lower dollar and higher gold as globally things remain equally murky as it was rather the pandemic still grows which should keep the QE pursuant till 2022. On the brighter side, a possible vaccine might be launched in the coming days by Russia whose authenticity is yet not confirmed fully again causing a flutter of uncertainty. In the current scenario, its the liquidity which is driving up all the asset classes excepting dollar which should continue further until free money flow is stemmed. To watch next week – Earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold hurried over $2000 as shorts continued to get punished partly due to immense liquidity and party cause of technical push. Its getting more and more stretched on the upside but still this overbought state is not acting as much of a roadblock for further gains since charts can stay in such a condition if situations persist/demands which is the actual reality at the moment. With more stimulus, this is not looking like stopping anytime soon until an exhaustion limit is reached. Technicals remain favorable as its creating fresh highs and new closing ones as well moreover every week with no reversal pattern in sight. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $2061. If this is crossed it can move towards $2090. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2109.
2. Short bets still remain an ill fated option except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls achieved another milestone as they conquered $2000 for the first time on back of a lower dollar and ample liquidity. This straight $230 point rally in span of 3 weeks does showcase the prowess of the bulls as they were unforgiving to any shorting opportunity rather the recurring shorts fueled the upmove. There was a slight hiccup at the end of last week where the metal pulled back quite sharply from highs (maybe due to week ending adjustment) as stimulus talks hit a roadblock, but all seems well now post signing of an executive order in the weekend by President Trump to keep the stimulus going which should put back gold into its ascending course as likely the dollar will get another blow. Other than this, ongoing concerns remain elevated as pandemic continues to rattle the economies while geopolitical tensions fail to ease. With the above considerations its highly likely for gold to reach $2300 and maybe even higher before a major correction sets in.
Bearishness still remains off grid.
On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $2045 for the targets of $2061 and $2090 with a stop loss placed below $2030. Longer term target $2109.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.