GOLD4-hour time frame gold analysis
Gold is still bullish in the 4-hour time frame and can see higher prices and as long as it is below the price of 24
Commoditysignals
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,498.84
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,529.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 2,463.56
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
WTI OIL This is why it's going to $95.00 if the 1M MA50 helps.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has been practically neutral within a Triangle pattern since September 2023, trading under the Resistance pressure of the Lower Highs but at the same time supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. The latter has been placed just below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the key to Oil's price action in the coming months.
As you can see, even when the price breaks below it, Oil manages to close the 1M candle (month) above the 1M MA50. In fact the last time it closed a month below it was more than 3.5 years ago (January 2021)!
As a result, if we manage to close August above it again, we expect a strong rebound for Oil. In fact, a similar Triangle pattern was spotted back in 2011 - 2013. As you can see, after several breakings but also closings above the 1M MA50, it eventually initiated a rally that hit the Resistance 2 level.
The 1M RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar as well, so we find no reason why Oil won't stage a similar rally as long as the 1M MA50 keeps holding. Our long-term Target is $95.00.
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XAUUSD made HISTORY above $2500 for 1st time ever! What's next?Gold (XAUUSD) broke last Friday above the $2500 threshold for the first time in its history. Amidst growing economic slowdown and geopolitical concerns, the yellow metal seems again to be winning the 'safe haven race' against its peers. But can it continue this aggressive rise?
To answer this we revisit today the April 15 (see chart below) analysis that helped us project the medium-term correction following the early 2024 rally:
The essence of this analysis was the high degree of symmetry in Gold's price action since the December 2015 Low. What helped us anticipate the April - June 2024 correction was the similarities of the Bull Phase that started after the October 2023 Low with the August 2018 - July 2020 Bull Phase.
The 2019 mid-Bull Phase correction took place after a +34.80% rise within the 0.5 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels. The December 2023 - Jan 2024 correction took place after a +32.70% rise and if we place it within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci level, we can assume that Gold is now on the final stage of this Bull Phase.
It technically tops at 2900 but we will be satisfied with a 2800 Target as proportionally it will be closer to the post 0.382 Fib rise of the previous Bull Phase (41.80% against 43.80%). Note that in all cases, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held as Support and as long as it does, the trend will be bullish long-term.
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Could Gold reverse from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,431.92
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,412.83
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 2,460.29
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
XAUUSD Next stop 2545.Two weeks ago (July 29, see chart below), we gave a strong buy signal on Gold (XAUUSD) right at the bottom of June's Channel Up:
The price hasn't yet hit the 2545 Target as it posted yet another Higher Low but is on good course to hit it, as the Higher Lows structure resembles that of June's. One more pull-back and we believe that Gold will then make its next technical Higher High at +8.30% (similar to the previous Bullish Leg).
Note that throughout this whole time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting and currently is just below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
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Could Gold reverse from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,482.47
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 2,509.10
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 2,441.80
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 2,432.17
1st Support: 2,402.82
1st Resistance: 2,451.17
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could price reverse from here?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could potentially reverse to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 2,378.49
1st Support: 2,354.61
1st Resistance: 2,421.83
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GASOLINE Strong buy opportunity.Last time we looked into Gasoline (RB1!) was exactly 2 months ago (June 06, see chart below) and the price action gave us the most optimal buy opportunity on the 0.618 Fibonacci level and hit straight on our 2.6000 Target:
Since then, Gasoline declined aggressive along with most of the energy sector and even broke below the 0.618 Fib on Monday. This however is technically the ideal long-term buy entry as not only the dominant pattern remains a 2-year Channel Down but also in symmetrical terms, it appears that the price action may be on similar levels as the June 23 2023 Low.
As a result, we turn bullish on Gasoline again, targeting the Internal Lower Highs trend-line at 2.7500.
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Potential bullish bounce?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,355.76
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 2,321.23
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 2,393.02
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
PALLADIUM Will be among the biggest winners of this correction.Palladium (XPDUSD) is in the process of forming a Double Bottom on February's Low, following the rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). That level has been unbroken as a Resistance since the week of October 10 2022. Once the 1W MA50 breaks, we will have a confirmed buy signal, whose first emergence was when the 1W RSI formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
Technically this is a recurring cyclical bottom formed on a 6-year Cycle as the previous ones (January 11 2026 and December 01 2008). All took place on a 1W RSI Bullish Divergence. We expect Palladium to reach at least the 'Russia-Ukraine war peak' at 3450 by mid 2026 - mid 2027.
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Silver has a strong bearish momentum, could it fall further?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 27.68
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 28.16
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 26.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could price reverse from here?WTI oil is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 75.42
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 76.92
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 72.78
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
XAUUSD Bull Cycle still intact, targeting above $3000Exactly 4 months ago (April 04, see chart below), we made a long-term bullish call on Gold (XAUUSD), after it confirmed the new Bull Cycle:
The consolidation that followed and successfully double bottomed like the November 2019 Support bounce, is now over and Gold has started the 2nd phase of this Bull Cycle. In March 2020 we had the Black Swan event of the COVID crash, and if we avoid such a danger again, we expect the bullish trend to continue.
The last Cycle's peak (August 03 2020) was just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. This gives us a rough Target of $3100, but of course this can be revised as we go, depending on the global macroeconomics and geopolitics.
Note also that the last Cycle's peak was formed when the 1W RSI made its 3rd overbought top above 70.00.
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Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 75.95
1st Support: 72.88
1st Resistance: 77.55
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XPTUSD Strong buy on this 1W MA50 rebound.Our April 24 analysis (see chart below) on Platinum (XPTUSD) saw us struck Gold as we caught the exact Bullish Megaphone bottom which hit our 1060 Target:
The situation isn't all that different now as Platinum got close to those April levels, with last week's Low marginally breaking below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), managing however to close the candle above it.
This has been followed with a strong green 1W candle this week, which we expect to be the technical rebound towards at least Resistance 1 if not a new Higher High. Our Target is slightly lower than this at 1095.00.
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COPPER signaling the start of rate cuts? Potential danger ahead.Copper (HG1!) completed two straight red months following May's High at the top of the 3-year Rising Wedge pattern. Last time the commodity formed this pattern was back from May 2006 to September 2008. In fact the recent May 2024 Higher High resembles that of May 2008, whose rejection broke the Rising Wedge downwards.
As you can see, during both patterns, the US10Y (orange trend-line) stopped rising and turned sideways on Lower Highs, while the U.S. Interest Rate had peaked and started falling.
What 2006 - 2008 suggests, is that possible rate cuts may be ahead of us, pragmatically the markets have already priced this to a large percentage in September. But at the same time, it highlights the danger of a market-wide collapse, as the first month after the September 2007 rate cut, the stock markets peaked and the U.S. Housing Crisis begun.
What could be different this time and avert a new financial crisis of such proportions is that the stock markets haven't shown any signs of correcting yet. As a result, potential rate cuts may have a mostly positive bullish continuation effect as post July 2019.
What do you think will happen next? Bullish continuation or new Bear Market?
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NATURAL GAS Expecting a dead-cat-bounce. Get ready to sell it.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been trading within a long-term Falling Wedge pattern since the April 2023 Low, with its latest Lower High coming right at the top of June 11 2024.
With a short-term bullish divergence on the 1D RSI, we expect to see a 'dead-cat-bounce' in August, which even though it might get as high as the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level to price yet another Lower High, an acceptable level to get a sell entry again, would be the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Our Target is 1.400, which would be the -0.5 Fibonacci extension (where the February 20 2024 Lower Low was priced), even though the Wedge's technical Lower Low extends as low as 1.200.
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Bearish reversal?The Silver (XAG/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 28.67
1st Support: 28.03
1st Resistance: 29.42
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
WTI OIL on the 3.5 year Support!WTI Oil (USOIL) is attempting to form yet another bottom below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate long-term Support since February 2021. As you can see, since May 2023, Oil has been forming Higher Lows just below this level.
Despite the presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since September 25 2023, the pattern shows a break-out above Resistance 1, every time such a low is formed. Our long-term Target remains 90.50 (potential Higher High on an emerging Channel Up).
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XAUUSD Trading plan for August.Gold (XAUUSD) has been rebounding following a hit-and-hold on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on Thursday, having closed 2 straight 1D candles above it. As long as this continues, we have a bullish development and a new Higher Low on the (dotted) Channel Up, which targets 2545 (+8.30% as the previous Bullish Leg).
If it closes below the 1D MA50 however, we expect a longer accumulation phase (blue arc) similar to June's around or even marginally below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). In this case, we will open an additional buy and target 2500 (top of the blue Channel Up and target for both open buys).
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Could Silver rise from here?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 28.02
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 27.43
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 28.65
Why we like it:
A pullback resistance level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
