WHEAT Bearish pressure under the 1D MA50 and MA200.Wheat (ZW1!) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattenr since July 2022. The price is currently on a bearish sequence below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It appears that technically this is a Bearish Leg following the December 06 2023 Lower High rejection, similar to the one that started on the October 10 2022 Lower High.
That sequence reached the Channel Down bottom on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our long-term Target is 455'7.
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Commoditysignals
XAUUSD Channel Down is about to top.Gold has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 28 2023 High. The price is at the moment around the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and close to completing a +2.84% rise, which is the usual Bullish Leg % within this pattern and currently falls just below the 2045 Resistance.
The 4H RSI is already on the same Bearish Divergence that priced the Highs of February 01 2024 and December 28 2023. As a result, we are turning bearish again on the short-term, targeting the top of the long-term Support Zone at 1985.
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COPPER Sell opportunity within a Channel Down.Copper (HG1!) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), on a Bullish Leg following the February 09 2024 rebound. That was a Lower Low within the Channel Down that started in December. The long-term pattern is a Falling Wedge and being much closer to its top, after the January 31 2024 than its bottom, this is a strong sell opportunity.
The August 2023 Lower High rejection initially hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before making a Lower Low much later. As a result our target is 3.6250, which is just above the0.786 Fibonacci level and a technical Lower Low for the short-term (blue) Channel Down.
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XAGUSD Buy opportunity on a 1 month horizon.Silver (XAGUSD) is on the 2nd straight green 1D candle, the strongest two day rally since December 14 2023. The natural technical Resistance is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and if broken and the 1D candle closes above it, we will buy the break-out and target the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 25.000.
This is because based on the 1D RSI, the current Double Bottom rebound is similar to tthe late June - early July 2023 rebound. The RSI supported by a long-term Higher Lows broke above the top of a descending channel. That was an early signal 3 days before the 1D MA50 break-out which formed a peak on the 0.786 Fib on July 20 2023.
Note also how the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) has been an excellent buy level for short-term rebounds.
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WTI OIL on critical crossroads long-term. Rejection or breakout?WTI Oil (USOIL) is being rejected once more on the 1D MA100 (red trend-line). Even though we are constructing this analysis on the 1W time-frame, in order to utilize the long-term dynamics and stress the importance of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) as the long-term Support for exactly 3 years (since the weekly break-out of February 01 2021), the key that makes all the difference on the medium-term is the 1D MA100.
The reason is that with the exception of the April 03 2023 and July 10 2023 1W candles, all other tests on the 1D MA100 were emphatically rejected, closing the weekly below it and kick-started multi-week downtrends.
As a result, as long as WTI is closing below the 1D MA100, we are bearish on the short-term, targeting the 1W MA200 again at 73.00. Those who want to take more risk can extend selling to the top of the 3-year Higher Lows Zone (green circles) at 69.50, even though that would be the long-term buy entry with the lowest risk.
If the price closes a candle above the 1D MA100, we will buy the break-out and target the bottom of the (red) Symmetrical Resistance Zone at 82.50, which is marginally below the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the (blue) consolidation pattern. Similarly, if 1W closes a candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which has only broken and closed above once since November 2022, we will buy that (2nd) break-out and target the bottom of the upper (red) Symmetrical Resistance Zone at 92.50 but with moving the SL constantly higher.
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NATURAL GAS Ultimate Cycles cheat sheet shows sell isn't over.Those who follow us for long know that when trading Natural Gas (NG1!) we use a very distinct long-term pattern that has been in effect for more than ten years and last time (January 22 2023, see chart below) has helped us take a new short at 3.174, running so far +100% in profit:
As you see on this 1W chart, the price is now below the High Volatility Zone, but the bottom isn't in yet as there is still room before touching the 15 year Lower Lows trend-line nor has the Sine Wave reached its bottom. At the same time the 1M RSI is breaking below its own Higher Lows trend-line, which is a bearish signal. We estimate a Target Zone within 1.300 - 1.250. Note that a 1W Death Cross was formed in August 2023 and since the March 2009 formation, NG prices a bottom significantly (at least 9 months) later.
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XAUUSD Last Bearish Leg for a February bottom.Gold (XAUUSD) has dropped again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and contrary to our last short-term signal (February 07, see chart below), we look today on a longer term monthly basis on the 1D time-frame:
As long as the price stays below the 1D MA50, it is very likely to see the current rejection transition into a Bearish Leg for the whole month of February and test the strong long-term Support cluster of the 0.382 Fibonacci level, Support 1 and the 1W MA50 (green trend-line).
This pattern expectation emerges due to the similarities of the current price action with what led and followed the May 04 2023 High. The 1D RSI in particular between the two sequences are identical and suggests that we might be on a Bearish Leg similar to June's 2023, which bottomed on a double Low on the Support Zone.
Our Target is therefore 1983 (0.382 Fibonacci). It's worth mentioning that all 1W MAs were Supports in the past 12 months, the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) on the October 06 2023 Low and the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) on the February 28 2023 Low. That makes the 1W MA50 very relevant.
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XAUUSD Trading plan on 4H break-outs.Gold (XAUUSD) is technically neutral on the 4H time-frame, ranged within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). The 4H RSI is on a pattern which usually denotes a short-term peak, similar to January 19 and 12. We will apply a break-out trading plan.
As long as the price remains within a Channel Down similar to that of Jan 19 - 25, we will be bearish, targeting 2020. If the price closes above the Channel Down and Resistance 1 (2045), we will dump it and turn bullish, targeting 2065 (Resistance 2 and +2.47% from the Low, which is a standard rise % in the past 4 weeks.
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WTI OIL Bullish reversal very likely here.WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us one of the best bullish break-out signals two weeks ago (see chart below):
Since almost touching the 79.75 Resistance, the price pulled back significantly and hit (even marginally breached but never closed) the bottom of the 2-month Channel Up. With the 4H RSI making a Bullish Cross, which was the absolute Buy Signal on the previous two Higher Lows of the Channel Up (January 03 2024 and December 13 2023), we see the start of the new Bullish Leg very likely here.
A break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) should complete the buy signal. As long as that's the case, we will be bullish targeting a +14.41% rise at $81.50 (such as the one that peaked on the January 28 2024 Higher High). If the recent Low breaks, it would mean that the price will be going for a bearish extension such as December 2023 (yellow pattern). In that case we will take a quick sell and target Support 1 at $69.30.
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XAUUSD is still Bearish long-term and this is why.Following the two day price surge after the Fed kept the Interest Rates unchanged and communicated their intensions of being in no rush to cut rates, we believe it would be beneficial to look Gold (XAUUSD) from a long-term perspective again and in doing so, we are updating our December 27 2023 (see chart below) comparison between the 3 Cycle Tops since August 2020:
As you can see, we were spot on with shorting the rejection on the 0.618 Fibonacci level (which was the case on the previous 2 Cycles (their first Lower High)) but even though the price did break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the recent 2-day rise is delaying the 1975.00 Target (Support 1).
However Gold is not completely unfamiliar to this as during September 2020, the price made several Lower Highs as well, before hitting Support 1. The 1D RSI break-out sequence above the Falling Wedge, confirms this exact expectation that Gold may trade sideways for as long as a month before a new Lower Low.
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XAUUSD 4H MA200 and to of Channel Down Sell.Gold (XAUUSD) is about to test the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the 4th time in 10 days having already 3 failed bullish break-out attempts (all 4H candles broke but failed to close above it). At the same time, all this price action is being done at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-month Channel Down pattern, which strengthens the sell sentiment.
Technically since the December 03 2023 All Time High (ATH), the metal has been on a neutral medium-term trade within a Resistance and a Support Zone, the latter being the ideal target at the moment. Every Lower Lows leg of the Channel Down has been approximately -3.00%. Since we have a Diverging Lower Lows trend-line involved this time, we will target 1983.50, marginally above the top of the Support Zone.
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WTI OIL Major bullish signals last seen in July.WTI Oil (USOIL) Closed last week above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since July, which technically puts an end to the October - December 2023 downtrend but perhaps that's not the strongest bullish signal we've seen now. The asset completed on Friday a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such formation since July 10th 2023.
That was at the start of a very aggressive rally up to late September to $95.00. We can yet speculate on such high target prices but on the shorter term, as long as the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line gives us another rebound, it should be enough not just to break above the Lower Highs of the price's Triangle but also above Resistance 1 (76.15). Our short-term target is 79.40, just below Resistance 2.
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XAUUSD Is this a dead-cat-bounce?Gold (XAUUSD) is on the 2nd straight bullish 1D candle after Wednesday's 2001.50 bottom. With this rebound it has recovered the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which it broke and closed below it on Wednesday. However this is the only (so far) divergence from the early 2023 pattern, which started with a massive reversal on the 1811.50 - 1805.00 Support Zone, the rally turned into a Channel Up and then reversed to a Channel Down below the 1D MA50 that hit in succession the 0.382, 0.5, 0.618.
As a result, as long as the (dotted) Channel Down holds, we remain bearish, aiming at 1973 (the 0.382 - Support 1 Zone), which is marginally above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Notice also how symmetrical the 1D RSI sequences between the two patterns are.
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WTI OIL Bullish squeeze. Strong rally incoming.WTI Oil (USOIL) is under a heavy technical squeeze as it has been trading for days within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line as Resistance) and the 1W MA200 (red trend-line as Support) and the width has now gotten extremely tight that a break-out is inevitable.
The very same squeeze was last spotted on July 03 2023, when the price marginally broke above the 1D MA50 but failed to close above it, only to rally over it two days later. This is what happened on Friday. With the 1D RSI also on Higher Lows (i.e. Bullish Divergence) as in July, we expect a bullish break-out that as with the July rally, will reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Our Target is 82.50.
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XAUUSD First 4H Death Cross in 4 months. Will it reverse?Gold (XAUUSD) followed our January 08 buy signal (see chart below) and rebounded on the 1D MA50, easily hitting the 2040 Target:
This time we have a distinct technical formation arising as the pair is forming the first 4H Death Cross since September 28 2023. In fact, the price action is very similar to the Death Cross that was formed a few days prior that (September 14). After a 0.786 Fibonacci rebound, the price collapsed to a new Low.
As a result, we see a rise to 2070 (just below the 0.786 Fib) as a realistic short-term action, but below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) we will short the break-out and target Support 2 at 1972.40 (just above the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line)).
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WTI OIL is a strong long-term buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) has hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 24 2023. Today's analysis is on the 1W time-frame but we have explained the reasoning behind a long-term buy once the 1D MA50 would break, a month ago (December 19, see idea below):
That Buy Zone offers a low risk action ground for longs and as you can see on today's chart, it is also supported by the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which hasn't allowed a 1W candle to close below it for almost 3 years (since January 25 2021). At the same time the 3-year Support Zone has had 7 times that was hit and held, with the most recent being on December 11 2023.
As a result, if Oil closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, there are high chances of a strong medium-term rally on the 1W scale. So far the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is the Resistance. All 3-year Support Zone rallies rose very aggressively and the two most recent hit at least the 82.50 level, which will be our Target.
This is just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a line that has been approached 4 times already since November 28 2022. Practically the market has been ranging within a 16-month Rectangle after the 2022 High.
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NATURAL GAS Long-term High has been made. SELL.Natural Gas (NG1!) is having a strong bearish reversal since the January 09 High, which on this 1D time-frame can be identified as a Lower High on a 3-month Channel Down pattern. On top of that, the 1D RSI got overbought above 70.00 and is correcting.
This appears to be the new Bearish Leg of the Channel Down and we expect it to last around 1 month. Our Target is a new Lower Low on Support 2 at 2.135.
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XAUUSD Target hit, approaching bottom of Channel Up and 1D MA50.Gold (XAUUSD) followed the Channel Up 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection pattern and as per our last week's idea (January 04, see chart below), it hit today our 2020 Target:
The price is now only a few pips away from hitting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) which has been untouched since October 13 2023 and near which both previous Higher Lows on the Channel's bottom (December 13 2023 and November 12 2023) where priced.
As a result that would be a buy opportunity with a tolerance extension as low as 2003, which would represent a -4.08% from the top, symmetrical to both previous two Bearish Legs. As long as the Channel Up Higher Lows trend-line holds, we will stay bullish, targeting the 4H MA50 at 2040. If the bottom trend-line breaks, we will take the relatively small loss and open a sell instead, targeting Support 1 at 1972.50. The 1D MA20 (yellow trend-line) is the final supporting trend-line before Gold gets a confirmed bearish reversal on the long-term horizon.
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NATURAL GAS Strong sell on the 1D MA50.Natural Gas has been so far following the sell strategy we shared with you a month ago (December 04, see chart below), having already hit one Target (2.425):
Yesterday the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and managed to close the 1D candle below it, which stands out as the most efficient sell opportunity since the October 27 2023 High. Technically we can see a new Channel Down emerging with two Lower Lows and two Lower Highs already. Our long-term 2.135 Target on Support 2 remains, but technically the downside can be considerably bigger (-38.67% was the previous Bearish Leg).
If the price breaks above Resistance 1 (2.990), we will take an additional short-term buy, targeting 3.275 (Resistance 2).
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XAUUSD Bear Flag on 4H.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually did get rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci level as per our last week analysis (see chart below):
This is so far consistent with all previous All Time Highs since August 2020 and our long-term target remains 1975. On the shorter term though we see a quick sell opportunity following today's bounce after the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) break-out, as it is consistent with all such break-outs (red ellipses) within the 2-month Channel Up.
Every Bearish Leg of this Channel Up declined by more than -4.00% but on our short-term horizon we will settle for a 2020 target, which will be a 1D MA50 (red trend-line) test. See also how consistent the 4H MACD sequences are.
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WTI OIL Bearish below the 1D MA50.WTI Oil (USOIL) got rejected two days ago near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the downward Resistance since October 24, despite the fact that the price marginally broke above the 3-month Channel Down.
As long as it stays below the 1D MA50, the trend is bearish and we will target the 68.00 Low. On the long-term though, this is a huge Buy Zone since March but the price only rallied sustainably when a 1D candle closed above the 1D MA50. The 1D RSI is technically repeating the December 2022 bottom pattern, but we will only engage in buying above the 1D MA50, in which case we will target 82.50, which is a level reached both on the March and July's rallies.
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XAUUSD Approaching the cyclical rejection level. Strong Sell.Gold (XAUUSD) hasn't so far diverged from the previous two ATH peak patterns (March 08 2022 and August 07 2020) as following this Cycle's new All Time High, it got heavily sold to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which held and initiated a price rebound.
This rebound sequence is now approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the Lower Highs of the previous peak patterns were formed. The price got immediately rejected to at least the previous Low (in our case 1975). In 2022 the sell-off continued immediately, while in 2020 it was more structured and gave another Lower High to sell.
As a result, we expect Gold to reverse soon within the 2070 - 2100 range and target at least 1975 by the end of January 2024.
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