XAUUSD Is it starting the new cyclical Mega Rally?Gold (XAUUSD) broke the previous All Time High (ATH) yesterday as expectations over a June rate cut intensified. In order to determine our short-term strategies on Gold we often tend to look at the long-term time-frames for trend recognition.
This time we look at the 1W chart and in particular how Gold's previous Cycle compares to today. We could look at those from a 1M (monthly) standpoint but we are particularly interested in making a case of the 1W RSI as it plays a critical role here.
As you can see Gold's previous Cycle from 2013 - 2020 is so far highly similar and symmetrical with the recent Cycle of 2020 - 2024. The current ATH break is slightly diverging from the September 04 2017 High as Gold didn't make an ATH then but so did the December 04 2023 High, which was priced purely on fundamentals (geopolitical unrest).
You can clearly see the RSI's key role here as despite Gold's new ATH, the RSI has only entered its 4-year Resistance Zone. On those terms, it is no different than the September 04 2017 High. As a result, if we don't see a considerable extension of the current rally, for example a 1M candle closing above the Resistance Zone, it is more likely to see a correction back to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). If not and the rate cut expectations prevail, the Mega Rally Phase should start earlier on this Cycle. And as always it will be brutally bullish with the 1W MA50 in support.
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Commoditysignals
SOYBEANS Excellent buy opportunity.Soybeans (ZS1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since early 2023 just last week, it almost hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). So far the price has reacted with a minor rebound, while the 1D RSI has been on a major Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows).
This is the best buy signal since the May 31 2023 bottom where again after an RSI Bullish Divergence, the price rebounded aggressively to the 0.618 Fib on a +12.56% rally. So far within this long-term Channel Down, we have had similar rebounds of +12.56%, +14.26% and +11.86%.
Assuming the minimum of +11.86%, we are setting a Target on Soybeans at 1263'5, which may almost make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the natural technical Resistance since April 24 2023.
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CORN Excellent 4-month buy opportunity.Corn's (ZC1!) price action since the COVID recovery in early 2020 is showcasing an amazing resemblance with the previous full Cycle of 2009 - 2014. This is better illustrated on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. Both started the Bull phase on a roughly +175% rebound on the 17 year Support Zone, topping on a Higher Highs (which was a Bearish Divergence with the Lower Highs of the 1M RSI) and then declined both astonishingly by -51.93%.
This is where the market is at now. In 2014 the price rebounded by +28.78% back above the 1W MA50 marginally and just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, before resuming the long-term decline to the 17 year Support Zone.
As a result, this presents an excellent 4-month buy opportunity with 506'4 as the Target (+28.78%). Notice also that the 1M RSI is on the exact same level (33.75) as it was on the January 2014 Low, and is reversing.
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XAUUSD Break-out to $2200 or pull-back $2030?Gold (XAUUSD) is rising and has gotten very close to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started in November 2023. As long as it gets rejected within the pattern, it is a sell opportunity targeting $2030, which is above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone and near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. The 1D MACD appears to be in a similar sequence as on July 20 2023, which initiated a strong sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
On the other hand, if Gold breaks and closes above the Channel Up, we will not hesitate to take the loss on the sell and open a buy, as it will have stronger probabilities of imitating the December 04 2023 bullish break-out, which completed a +11.37% rise before correcting as well to the 0.786 Fib and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As a result in that case, our target will be $2200, which would represent a +11.00% rise from the February 14 Low.
In fact, +11% rallies have been common in the past 12 months for Gold, delivering 3 such occasions. Each one has corrected to an MA period and the one that has been untouched for longer is the 1D MA200, which by the time of a correction will be very close to the bottom of the Channel Up.
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WTI OIL Sell opportunity targeting the 1D MA50.Oil (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 13 2023 market bottom and currently is on the 3rd Bullish Leg towards the top (Higher Highs trend-line). This indicates that on a R/R basis, there is greater incentive selling with the price being closer to the pattern's top than the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
As a result we are bearish, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the bottom of the Channel Up at 76.00, which is also marginally above Support 1. Notice also how symmetrical the Higher Highs and Higher Lows legs have been within the pattern.
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Cotton # 2 Futures. The Epic 52-Week Highs BreakthroughThe main technical graph is for Cotton # 2 Futures that firmly up this year, with solid 13.5 percent performance in 2024 to this time.
The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders dropped 6k existing shorts and added 11.6k new longs during the week that ended 2/6. That raised their net long to 46,344 contracts. Commercial cotton hedgers added 17.5k short hedges for a 90,540 contract net short as of 2/6.
NOAA’s 7-day QPF has another band of heavy precip for the South/East. From the Gulf of TX through TN/NC/KY accumulations top out near 4”. Most of Northern LA, North/Central MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA will get ~2”. Central TX cotton area will also get ¾ to 1 ½” of precip to build up soil moisture reserves. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor confirmed there was still some D3-D4 in Northeast MS, but the total D3-D4 area has fallen from 29% to 2% since December 5th for the South-Southeast.
The monthly WASDE update showed a 150k bale lighter domestic cotton use, now at 1.75 million bales. Exports, however, were raised by 200k bales to offset. On net ending stocks tightened by 100k to 2.8 million in the report.
The main technical graph for Cotton # 2 futures ICEUS:CT1! indicates on 52-week highs breakthrough, as massive 20-years SMA supported the price over the past 12-15 months.
Weekly RSI(14) sub chart is to confirm this epic breakout, while COT data says, Largest speculators are still positive in net position all the time, keeping calm above Zero-level, while producers are to massively sell the production.
XAUUSD One more bearish leg left to 1930.Gold (XAUUSD) maintains its Channel Down status since last December and so far has established the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as the current Support having been nearly tested 2 weeks ago. The current analysis is on the 1W time-frame, which offers a highly reliable long-term outlook.
As you can see Gold has been on a highly symmetrical 4-year Channel Up pattern (since December 2019) with the recent top (week of December 04 2023) being the latest Higher High. Even though the natural technical target on such pattern is the bottom of the Channel (0.236 Fibonacci retracement level), it is more likely for the downtrend to stop on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is headed straight for the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which has also been a standard target within this pattern.
For us, since there is a Higher Lows trend-line coming straight from the October 31 2022 bottom involved, we will initially target that on the medium-term, on a 193 target and then see if we can short again upon a rebound if the downtrend remains intact.
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WHEAT Bearish pressure under the 1D MA50 and MA200.Wheat (ZW1!) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattenr since July 2022. The price is currently on a bearish sequence below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It appears that technically this is a Bearish Leg following the December 06 2023 Lower High rejection, similar to the one that started on the October 10 2022 Lower High.
That sequence reached the Channel Down bottom on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our long-term Target is 455'7.
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XAUUSD Channel Down is about to top.Gold has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 28 2023 High. The price is at the moment around the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and close to completing a +2.84% rise, which is the usual Bullish Leg % within this pattern and currently falls just below the 2045 Resistance.
The 4H RSI is already on the same Bearish Divergence that priced the Highs of February 01 2024 and December 28 2023. As a result, we are turning bearish again on the short-term, targeting the top of the long-term Support Zone at 1985.
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COPPER Sell opportunity within a Channel Down.Copper (HG1!) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), on a Bullish Leg following the February 09 2024 rebound. That was a Lower Low within the Channel Down that started in December. The long-term pattern is a Falling Wedge and being much closer to its top, after the January 31 2024 than its bottom, this is a strong sell opportunity.
The August 2023 Lower High rejection initially hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before making a Lower Low much later. As a result our target is 3.6250, which is just above the0.786 Fibonacci level and a technical Lower Low for the short-term (blue) Channel Down.
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XAGUSD Buy opportunity on a 1 month horizon.Silver (XAGUSD) is on the 2nd straight green 1D candle, the strongest two day rally since December 14 2023. The natural technical Resistance is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and if broken and the 1D candle closes above it, we will buy the break-out and target the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 25.000.
This is because based on the 1D RSI, the current Double Bottom rebound is similar to tthe late June - early July 2023 rebound. The RSI supported by a long-term Higher Lows broke above the top of a descending channel. That was an early signal 3 days before the 1D MA50 break-out which formed a peak on the 0.786 Fib on July 20 2023.
Note also how the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) has been an excellent buy level for short-term rebounds.
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WTI OIL on critical crossroads long-term. Rejection or breakout?WTI Oil (USOIL) is being rejected once more on the 1D MA100 (red trend-line). Even though we are constructing this analysis on the 1W time-frame, in order to utilize the long-term dynamics and stress the importance of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) as the long-term Support for exactly 3 years (since the weekly break-out of February 01 2021), the key that makes all the difference on the medium-term is the 1D MA100.
The reason is that with the exception of the April 03 2023 and July 10 2023 1W candles, all other tests on the 1D MA100 were emphatically rejected, closing the weekly below it and kick-started multi-week downtrends.
As a result, as long as WTI is closing below the 1D MA100, we are bearish on the short-term, targeting the 1W MA200 again at 73.00. Those who want to take more risk can extend selling to the top of the 3-year Higher Lows Zone (green circles) at 69.50, even though that would be the long-term buy entry with the lowest risk.
If the price closes a candle above the 1D MA100, we will buy the break-out and target the bottom of the (red) Symmetrical Resistance Zone at 82.50, which is marginally below the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the (blue) consolidation pattern. Similarly, if 1W closes a candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which has only broken and closed above once since November 2022, we will buy that (2nd) break-out and target the bottom of the upper (red) Symmetrical Resistance Zone at 92.50 but with moving the SL constantly higher.
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NATURAL GAS Ultimate Cycles cheat sheet shows sell isn't over.Those who follow us for long know that when trading Natural Gas (NG1!) we use a very distinct long-term pattern that has been in effect for more than ten years and last time (January 22 2023, see chart below) has helped us take a new short at 3.174, running so far +100% in profit:
As you see on this 1W chart, the price is now below the High Volatility Zone, but the bottom isn't in yet as there is still room before touching the 15 year Lower Lows trend-line nor has the Sine Wave reached its bottom. At the same time the 1M RSI is breaking below its own Higher Lows trend-line, which is a bearish signal. We estimate a Target Zone within 1.300 - 1.250. Note that a 1W Death Cross was formed in August 2023 and since the March 2009 formation, NG prices a bottom significantly (at least 9 months) later.
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XAUUSD Last Bearish Leg for a February bottom.Gold (XAUUSD) has dropped again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and contrary to our last short-term signal (February 07, see chart below), we look today on a longer term monthly basis on the 1D time-frame:
As long as the price stays below the 1D MA50, it is very likely to see the current rejection transition into a Bearish Leg for the whole month of February and test the strong long-term Support cluster of the 0.382 Fibonacci level, Support 1 and the 1W MA50 (green trend-line).
This pattern expectation emerges due to the similarities of the current price action with what led and followed the May 04 2023 High. The 1D RSI in particular between the two sequences are identical and suggests that we might be on a Bearish Leg similar to June's 2023, which bottomed on a double Low on the Support Zone.
Our Target is therefore 1983 (0.382 Fibonacci). It's worth mentioning that all 1W MAs were Supports in the past 12 months, the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) on the October 06 2023 Low and the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) on the February 28 2023 Low. That makes the 1W MA50 very relevant.
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XAUUSD Trading plan on 4H break-outs.Gold (XAUUSD) is technically neutral on the 4H time-frame, ranged within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). The 4H RSI is on a pattern which usually denotes a short-term peak, similar to January 19 and 12. We will apply a break-out trading plan.
As long as the price remains within a Channel Down similar to that of Jan 19 - 25, we will be bearish, targeting 2020. If the price closes above the Channel Down and Resistance 1 (2045), we will dump it and turn bullish, targeting 2065 (Resistance 2 and +2.47% from the Low, which is a standard rise % in the past 4 weeks.
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WTI OIL Bullish reversal very likely here.WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us one of the best bullish break-out signals two weeks ago (see chart below):
Since almost touching the 79.75 Resistance, the price pulled back significantly and hit (even marginally breached but never closed) the bottom of the 2-month Channel Up. With the 4H RSI making a Bullish Cross, which was the absolute Buy Signal on the previous two Higher Lows of the Channel Up (January 03 2024 and December 13 2023), we see the start of the new Bullish Leg very likely here.
A break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) should complete the buy signal. As long as that's the case, we will be bullish targeting a +14.41% rise at $81.50 (such as the one that peaked on the January 28 2024 Higher High). If the recent Low breaks, it would mean that the price will be going for a bearish extension such as December 2023 (yellow pattern). In that case we will take a quick sell and target Support 1 at $69.30.
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XAUUSD is still Bearish long-term and this is why.Following the two day price surge after the Fed kept the Interest Rates unchanged and communicated their intensions of being in no rush to cut rates, we believe it would be beneficial to look Gold (XAUUSD) from a long-term perspective again and in doing so, we are updating our December 27 2023 (see chart below) comparison between the 3 Cycle Tops since August 2020:
As you can see, we were spot on with shorting the rejection on the 0.618 Fibonacci level (which was the case on the previous 2 Cycles (their first Lower High)) but even though the price did break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the recent 2-day rise is delaying the 1975.00 Target (Support 1).
However Gold is not completely unfamiliar to this as during September 2020, the price made several Lower Highs as well, before hitting Support 1. The 1D RSI break-out sequence above the Falling Wedge, confirms this exact expectation that Gold may trade sideways for as long as a month before a new Lower Low.
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XAUUSD 4H MA200 and to of Channel Down Sell.Gold (XAUUSD) is about to test the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the 4th time in 10 days having already 3 failed bullish break-out attempts (all 4H candles broke but failed to close above it). At the same time, all this price action is being done at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-month Channel Down pattern, which strengthens the sell sentiment.
Technically since the December 03 2023 All Time High (ATH), the metal has been on a neutral medium-term trade within a Resistance and a Support Zone, the latter being the ideal target at the moment. Every Lower Lows leg of the Channel Down has been approximately -3.00%. Since we have a Diverging Lower Lows trend-line involved this time, we will target 1983.50, marginally above the top of the Support Zone.
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WTI OIL Major bullish signals last seen in July.WTI Oil (USOIL) Closed last week above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since July, which technically puts an end to the October - December 2023 downtrend but perhaps that's not the strongest bullish signal we've seen now. The asset completed on Friday a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such formation since July 10th 2023.
That was at the start of a very aggressive rally up to late September to $95.00. We can yet speculate on such high target prices but on the shorter term, as long as the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line gives us another rebound, it should be enough not just to break above the Lower Highs of the price's Triangle but also above Resistance 1 (76.15). Our short-term target is 79.40, just below Resistance 2.
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XAUUSD Is this a dead-cat-bounce?Gold (XAUUSD) is on the 2nd straight bullish 1D candle after Wednesday's 2001.50 bottom. With this rebound it has recovered the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which it broke and closed below it on Wednesday. However this is the only (so far) divergence from the early 2023 pattern, which started with a massive reversal on the 1811.50 - 1805.00 Support Zone, the rally turned into a Channel Up and then reversed to a Channel Down below the 1D MA50 that hit in succession the 0.382, 0.5, 0.618.
As a result, as long as the (dotted) Channel Down holds, we remain bearish, aiming at 1973 (the 0.382 - Support 1 Zone), which is marginally above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Notice also how symmetrical the 1D RSI sequences between the two patterns are.
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WTI OIL Bullish squeeze. Strong rally incoming.WTI Oil (USOIL) is under a heavy technical squeeze as it has been trading for days within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line as Resistance) and the 1W MA200 (red trend-line as Support) and the width has now gotten extremely tight that a break-out is inevitable.
The very same squeeze was last spotted on July 03 2023, when the price marginally broke above the 1D MA50 but failed to close above it, only to rally over it two days later. This is what happened on Friday. With the 1D RSI also on Higher Lows (i.e. Bullish Divergence) as in July, we expect a bullish break-out that as with the July rally, will reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Our Target is 82.50.
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