XPTUSD Strong Higher Low buy opportunity. 1D Golden Cross formedPlatinum (XPTUSD) gave us an excellent bottom buy signal last time (March 13, see chart below), as the metal entered a Channel Up pattern following the bottom just below 880.00:
Currently we are on the 2nd Bearish Leg of the Bullish Megaphone pattern that emerged and will complete a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame today. As per the December 02 2023 Golden Cross, which was formed after a similar rebound, but on a more aggressive Channel Up instead of a Megaphone, we should be expecting another Higher High near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is 1060.
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Commoditysignals
XAG/USD rising towards 50% Fibo resistance, could it reverse?Price is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 27.861
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 28.872
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 26.399
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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XAUUSD Technical profit taking started.Last week (April 15, see chart below), we discussed the 'necessity' of Gold (XAUUSD) for a medium-term technical pull-back based on its 5-year Cycles:
As you can see, we did get indeed the expected rejection at the top on Friday and this week we have started with almost a -5% already. The 1D RSI Double Topped on overbought territory and now is on a Lower Low. This RSI pattern since the October 06 2023 Low is very similar to the sequence that started on November 03 2022. As you can see on both occasions, Gold traded on Bullish Megaphones.
The 2022/23 Megaphone hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) once its RSI started printing the correction sequence it has now. In fact the 1D MA100 provided the last bounce on both Megaphones (February 14 2024 and March 09 2023).
As a result, we remain bearish on Gold, targeting 2200 (0.382 Fib and potential contact with the 1D MA200) on the medium-term. Ideally, the best level to buy again for the long-term would be when the 1D RSI hits the oversold barrier (30.00) again, but until then we will follow up with many updates.
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WTI OIL On the 1D MA50 & bottom of the Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today for the first time since February 07 and touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, forming a Higher Low. This is only 2 weeks after the formation of a 1D Golden Cross, the first since August 22 2023.
That Golden Cross was also formed during a correction, which eventually kept the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) intact and initiated a new Bullish Leg towards the 2.0 and 2.382 Fibonacci extensions.
As a result, we remain bullish as long as Oil closes 1D candles above the 1D MA200, and target $94.00 (Fib 2.0 ext). If it closes even a single candle below it, we expect a new long-term Channel Down, similar to the one that was initiated after the September 28 2023 High, and we will take the small loss, open a short and target 71.50 (Support 1).
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COPPER New Bull Cycle confirmed. 6.7600 possible.Copper (HG1!) has emphatically broken above the last Resistance of the 2-year Bear Cycle as it smashed through the top of the long-term Triangle pattern. The same pattern kept Copper on a Bear Cycle up until June 2020 when it started the remarkable rally to the 5.000 High (1.786 Fibonacci extension).
As you can see on both fractals, the formation of a Death Cross on the 1W time-frame signaled the bottom (Feb-March 2020 is the COVID crash exception, if that hadn't happened, the Triangle could have even broken upwards earlier).
Our minimum Target on the emerging (green) Channel Up is 6.7600 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension).
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NATURAL GAS Can turn bullish on the short-term.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been posting Higher Lows, three so far since the February 20 Low, despite the fact that it remains within a Channel Down since the October 27 2023 High. This might be a short-term trend change similar to the Channel Up that started on the April 14 2023 Low following a sharp and long-term selling sequence. Notice also the Higher Lows Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI patterns.
As long as the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up holds, we will be bullish short-term, targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 2.050. If the bottom of the Channel Down breaks, we will turn bearish, targeting the Lower Lows trend-line at 1.400. The risk is low on both sides.
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XAGUSD New Bull Cycle but pull-back possible. Buy it.Silver (XAGUSD) easily broke through the 25.000 Target we set 2 months ago (February 15, see chart below) and invalidated the Triangle pattern as it is entering into a new long-term Bull Cycle:
This was achieved as it broke above the 2-year Resistance Zone 1 and the Triangle transitioned into a Channel Up. Last week it hit Resistance Zone 2 and technically we should be expecting a medium-term pull-back as this is close to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. Note that Resistance Zone 2 was formed after the August 2020 High.
We are looking for a buy within 26.500 - 26.000 to target the top of the Channel at 32.000. A Resistance Zone 2 break-out practically confirms the new Bull Cycle. We have to point out also the the 1W RSI broke last week above the 70.00 overbought barrier and is at the highest level since September 2020.
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XAUUSD Is this a legitimate correction?There is no doubt that Gold (XAUUSD) has entered a new Bull Cycle after last month's bullish break-out. Last week though it closed its 1W candle almost on a Doji which can potentially be a trend reversal, at least on the short-term.
As you can see on this 1W chart, which displays the similarities between the previous Cycle and the current, such 1W candles have been on global market tops: May 01 2023, January 16 2023, March 07 2022 etc.
If we are indeed at the phase past the Accumulation (Rectangle pattern) simular to February 2020, then we can expect a short-term correction. Of course the March 2020 price collapse that touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) had solely to do with the COVID asset-wide crash. Still though, in February 2020, the market posted a red 1W candle that erased the gains of two weeks in a row.
As a result, if the current week doesn't post a new High, we expect a pull-back towards at least 2250. Beyond that, in order to approach the 1W MA50 again, we need a fundamental catalyst.
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WTI OIL Consolidation before rise to $91.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 28 High supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone. The Bullish Legs have so far recorded rises within a +8.24% to +10.24% range.
Right now it appears that Oil has finished the latest Bullish Leg as the 4H RSI made its standard Peak formation and declined. According to the previous RSI patterns, this decline is the most optimal buy entry.
Now we should be expecting a consolidation around the 4H MA50 and not lower than the 4H MA200 before the next rally. Taking the lowest +8.24% rise scenario, we are targeting for a minimum Higher High at 91.50.
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XAUUSD Bullish extension expected. Unless this level breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a very aggressive (blue) Channel Up, which today hit the top of the logarithmic (dotted) 6-month Channel Up. If it is indeed symmetric with the first Bullish Leg of that Channel Up, then it is close to completing a +10.60% rise which should call for a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) pull-back.
As a result we expect a quick fall to 2305 and then sharp rebound targeting 2500, for a new Higher High on the (blue) Channel Up. If however the price closes below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which has been supporting since February 23 2024, and Support 1 (2270), we will sell for the medium-term and target 2150 (Support 2), near the bottom of the (dotted) 6-month Channel Up, which will be a very comfortable buy entry for the long-term.
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XAUUSD New Bull Cycle mapped! Approaching first Resistance Zone?Gold (XAUUSD) has technically started its new Bull Cycle after breaking above the Resistance and previous All Time High (ATH) into green overbought territory. Being overbought in such instances isn't necessarily bearish but suggests that even though the long-term trend is now heavily bullish (and should be for the next year or so), we should look for key Resistances to offer relief pull-backs.
As you can see on this 1W chart, there are strong similarities of the current Cycle (both Bear and Bull) with the previous one (June 2016 - August 2020). The Bear Cycle's come in the form of Cup patterns, while the Bull Cycles start on Channel Up patterns at the bottom of the Bear ones. During the previous Bull Cycle, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has supported all the way from its bullish break-out (December 24 2018) until deep into the next Bear (February 01 2021).
Right now the 1W MA50 has been supporting since October 09 2023, which is shortly after the dashed Channel Up started. That is an important pattern as it currently has a maximum upside to 2350 for a Higher High. The dotted Channel Up on the contrary, which was initiated at the bottom of the Bear Cycle has already touched its Higher High.
This means that Gold's new Bull Cycle is facing its first significant Resistance Zone of the current run: 2300 - 2350. Relative to the previous Bull Cycle, Gold had it's first Resistance rejection on August 26 2019, making a Higher High and started to pull-back for almost 100 days (3 months). As the current bullish trend is significantly stronger than the 2019 one, the dashed Channel Up being narrower, I doubt that Gold will correct for that long, but on the next red 1W candle, we have to consider the possibility for a short-term correction.
The August 2019 one pulled as low as the previous High before the rejection (bold black line). This suggests that 2220 - 2200 is Gold's floor at the moment and shouldn't be broken. Back to its overbought status, the 1W RSI gives a clear indication of that. Once it starts reversing inside an Arc pattern, we will confirm the correction we're discussing now. And after it forms systematically Lower Highs on quarterly intervals, we can expect by the 3rd Lower High to be close to the Top of the Bull Cycle.
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XAUUSD target hit. Now expect a 2100 reversal.Gold (XAUUSD) hit this morning our long-term 2260 Target, which we called for on our March 2021 (see chart below) idea:
That not only made a Higher High formation at the top of the 5-month Channel Up that started on the November 03 2023 Low but also hit the symmetrical 1.382 Fibonacci extension as the last Higher High on May 04 2023.
This has indeed been a long rise for Gold, which is now looking ahead of an equally lengthy correction, assuming the Channel Up and its top stay intact. If they do, we expect a 6-8 week pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 0.618 Fibonacci extension from Gold's last Low.
That gives us a 2100 Target, which could make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 13 2023.
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XAUUSD Bullish unless this trend-line breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) is on a short-term uptrend on the 1H time-frame as it is supported by a Higher Lows trend-line since Friday's bottom. As long as this trend-line holds, we are bullish, targeting 2220 (marginally below Resistance 1).
If the price breaks and closes a 1H candle below the Higher Lows trend-line, we will see and target 2150 (marginally above Support 1).
We follow this break-out approach as it was exactly what Gold did on March 20, after it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned aggressively bullish.
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WTI OIL Strong sell aheadWTI Oil (USOIL) eventually held the short-term uptrend within the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up and hit our 81.85 Target, as explained on our last idea (March 14 2024, see chart below):
Moving out to the 1D time-frame, we can see that the price has started to pull-back after reaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern. In addition, it was rejected on the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line).
As the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross, selling may start to gain momentum and transition into the new Bearish Leg. The previous one hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the top. It also made the last contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which has been Oil's multi-year Support.
As a result, we are now turning bearish on WTI, targeting the 0.618 Fib at 76.00.
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XAGUSD Rejection at the top of the 1 year pattern. Huge SELL.Silver (XAGUSD) reached the 25.000 Target that we set more than a month ago (February 15, see chart below) easily surpassing the 0.786 Fibonacci level and getting heavily rejected exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1 year Triangle pattern:
On July 20 2023, a rejection slightly lower started wave (e-f) towards the bottom of the High Volatility Zone and touched the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). This trend-line has made contact with all corrective waves of the long-term Triangle pattern.
As a result, taking also into account the 1D RSI which has hit the exact 70.00 overbought barrier like on July 19 2023, we are now bearish and targeting 22.500 (expected contact with the 1W MA100).
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XAUUSD Starting a new Mega Cycle. One last pull-back in order?Two weeks ago (March 07 2024, see chart below) we explored the possibility of Gold (XAUUSD) starting a new cyclical Mega Rally on the 1W time-frame after the recent bounce on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):
This has turned out to be the reality as Gold closed a 1W candle above the Resistance Zone. That is the first signal of the start of the new Mega Cycle and it will get confirmed if the price closes a 1M candle above the Resistance Zone in 10 days time, which is at 2150. If not, one final test of the 1W MA50 before a new All Time High (ATH), may be in order.
Until then, we need to consider the implications shown on the 1D time-frame, where the dominant pattern is a Channel Up. As you can see, the current Bullish Leg has so far repeating the previous one very closely and we are at the (blue) Channel Up stage that may price the new Higher High near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous High. The 1D MACD invalidating a Bullish Cross, confirms that we may be in a similar situation as on April 04 2023.
As long the 2145 Support holds, we expect 2260 as a Higher High, which should of course close the 1M candle above the Resistance Zone, indicating that the new cyclical Mega Rally may start earlier, without a 1W MA50 (red trend-line) pull-back.
If however the 2145 Support breaks, the above gets invalidated and we will have a sell confirmation. In that case, we will turn bearish, targeting the 1W MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the Internal Higher Lows trend-line (as on June 29 2023) with 2035 as our Target.
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GASOLINE Sell signal approachingGasoline (RBOB1!) is staging a short-term rebound towards the top of the (dotted) Channel Up ahead of a 1D Golden Cross. The 18-month pattern is a Channel Down and last time we saw those technical dynamics was during the previous Bullish Wave/ Channel Up that peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (April 12 2023) exactly on the Golden Cross and then corrected below the (dotted) Channel Up.
As a result, we are starting to take a bearish stance on Gasoline, targeting 2.400 (bottom of the Channel Up).
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XPDUSD Sell opportunity near the 1D MA200.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 04 2022 High and the recent Feb 13 2024 Low rally is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is where the last Lower High of the Channel Down was priced (Dec 22 2023), thus a sell opportunity is being presented. On top of that, the 1D RSI just hit the 70.00 overbought barrier.
As a result, we turn bearish on Palladium, targeting just above the Support 1 level at 865.00. We will turn bullish only if the price breaks above Resistance 1 and then pulls back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting 1630 (just below Resistance 2).
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WTI OIL Trade according to this Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading within a short-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame, with the wider pattern still a Channel Up since the December 13 2023 market bottom. As long as the price keeps closing the 4H candles within the Channel Up, we remain bullish, targeting 81.85 (+6.64%, which is the rise of the previous Bullish Leg of the dashed Rising Megaphone).
If a 4H candle is closed below it, we will take the loss and open a sell aimed at the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) at 77.70.
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XAUUSD Is this a legitimate correction?Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke above the Channel Up on our last signal (March 04 2024, see chart below) and almost hit the 2200 Target:
It may be time to take profit on the break-out buy as the Bullish Leg since the February 14 Low is so far in perfect symmetry with the previous that peaked on December 04 2023 and potentially with the one before that peaked on October 27 2023. Both pulled-back to at least the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, the December one even as low as the 0.786 Fib. Even March 20 2023 even pull-back to the 0.382 Fib.
With the 1D MACD about to form a Bearish Cross (all previous ones were a Sell Signal) and the price being near the top of the wider Channel Up, Gold flashes the strongest sell signal in months. Target 1 is 2115 (Fib 0.382) and if we close a 1W candle below it, then re-sell with Target 2 at 2030 (Fib 0.786).
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XPTUSD broke above the 1D MA200 and is ready to rally.Platinum (XPTUSD) broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), and being on 1D RSI Higher Lows, we may be having a strong rally in its early stages. At least this is what the very same Higher Lows RSI pattern has led to when Platinum made the very same 1D MA200 break-out on October 26 2022.
The result was a +28.50% instant rally from the bottom and then a finaly blow-out just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are bullish on Platinum targeting a minimum at 1060 (sub 1.382 Fib), even though it may very well reach the upper (red) Resistance Zone.
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COPPER Best sell entry of the year.Copper (HG1!) has entered the 3.9740 - 4.0235 Resistance Zone that has been in effect since May 01 2023. It has provided the rejections of August 01 2023 and December 27 2023, with the latter hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement upon its reversal and the former the 0.786 level.
Technically the current 1D CCI pattern is almost identical to the one that preceded the August 01 2023 peak. We will pursue Target 1 at 3.800 (Fib 0.618) and Target 2 at 3.7400 (Fib 0.786).
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NATURAL GAS Last pump to the 1D MA50 before selling.Natural Gas (NG1!) gave us an excellent sell signal on our last 1D analysis (January 11 2024, see chart below) and easily hit our 2.135 Target:
That Channel Down broke and the new that has emerged is more aggressive, headed into a 1D MACD Bearish Cross. If that happens, we will sell on the spot, if not we will wait until a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test, ideally even marginally higher (+46% from the bottom). Our Target is 1.400 (-38.50% from the top, similar to the December 13 2023 Lower Low).
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