XAUUSD is starting its new bullish leg to at least 2100.Gold (XAUUSD) hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again and this is technically completing the bottom phase that we called for 3 weeks ago (see chart below):
Our trading strategy hasn't changed, that was our long-term entry, bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the 7 month Channel Up and target a Higher High at 2100. Potentially, if it repeats another +10.60% rise, ut can even go as high as 2140. Regardless of that, this appears to be the start of the new bullish wave to a Higher High. Even the 1D RSI is on perfect symmetry with the February 02 - March 08 correction (bearish wave).
A 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100 however, thus the Channel Up, can potentially accumulate more selling pressure and accelerate the decline towards the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1840.
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Commoditysignals
WTI OIL Buy signal targeting the 1D MA100.WTI Oil (USOIL) reversed after hitting our previous target (see chart below) and is now rebounding again:
As you see it bounced off the previous Support Zone of the candle bodies, which we view it as a Pivot Zone similar to the one formed on December 16 2022. On both sequences the 1D RSI rebounded after almost turning oversold (below 30.00) and the current rebound was from the symmetrical 37.50 level.
The technical target is the Higher Highs trend-line and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), as it did on January 18, which we project to be at 75.00. Keep in mind that since November 04 2022 (almost 7 months) of long-term Channel Down trading, the price almost hit the 1D MA100 before getting rejected.
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XAUUSD Rebounding on the Channel Down bottom.Last week, as well as two weeks ago (see charts below) we called for a buy entry on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) on Gold (XAUUSD) and today it has started to deliver:
As you see, this is similar to the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up (March 08), with the price closing again above the 1D MA100. The confirmation was delivered once the price broke and closed above the 4H MA50 too (yellow trend-line). Our long-term bullish target is intact at 2100. If we get a closing below the 1D MA100 however, we will turn bearish instead and sell, targeting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 1840. On the current levels, the risk is low anyway.
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XAUUSD completed a 1W MACD Bearish Cross. Warning!Gold (XAUUSD) completed this week the first Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD since the week of April 25 2022 (a year+ ago). This is a strong bearish technical signal that cannot be ignored as its last two occurrences above the 0.00 MACD level, kickstarted multi-month declines, all exactly from the same 2070 - 2080 Resistance level.
In order for such a correction to be avoided we need a 1W candle to close above the last highest closing level of the peak candle. In the previous two cases it failed. On the current case, that is 2018. Until that happens, every rise is a sell opportunity as long as a series of Lower Highs is formed.
Since the price hit the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) yesterday and is rebounding, it is quite likely to see a medium-term rebound as high as 2000 for the next optimal sell opportunity. Unless of course the 1W candle closes below the 1D MA100 first. A sell closer to 2000 though with the invalidation level marginally above it (at 2018) offers a great Risk/ Reward ratio. In either case the first long-term target of the downside is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), with an early projected contact at 1850. On the other hand, a 1W close above 2018, is a bullish break-out signal targeting the 2083 All Time High.
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XAUUSD Rejected on the 4H MA50. Bottom process starting.Gold (XAUUSD) has started the final phase of the bottom process as we presented on the 1D time-frame last week:
This time we shift to the 4H chart, as some short-term parameters are more obvious. Following the 4H Death Cross, Gold made today an exact rejection on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a similar rejection to February 14, which also came after a 4H Death Cross. We have the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as the first line of Support (which held and made the price rebound on the March 08 Low) but if a -8.00% decline from the top is repeated, we may see the price break a little lower than the long-term Channel Up this time.
Our goal is anywhere inside the green circle, or on the 4H MACD's 3rd Higher Low. Our long-term target of 2100 is intact.
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Is Gold pulling up a Bitcoin correction?Gold (XAUUSD) is trading below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the second week in a row, something that hasn't done since early March. In striking fashion Gold's price action since the March 2022 High is astonishingly similar to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) price action from its April 2021 High to November 2021 (up until now, it remains to be seen if it continues to replicate the pattern).
Bitcoin started falling under Lower Highs, bottomed following a Death Cross and while the 1D RSI was on Higher Lows and a Golden Cross was the mid rally signal to buy for the new market High. It peaked on Higher Highs while the 1D RSI was on Lower Highs (Bearish Divergence) and after breaking below the 1D MA50 again, it never tested it again until leg (l), long after it broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as well.
Gold currently declined after the same 1D RSI Lower Highs Bearish Divergence and if it fails to re-establish successive trading days above the 1D MA50 again, it can hit the 1D MA200 (currently at 1828.35 and rising) on leg (j).
Do you think it will pull out that Bitcoin-like correction?
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WTI OIL Triangle closing decides the trend.WTI Oil (USOIL) has easily hit our short-term target (see chart below) and is now consolidating:
This consolidation is being done within a Triangle pattern, which as we saw on Friday it remained valid despite the fact that the price broke marginally above it, as the 4H candle closed eventually back inside it. This suggests that the (currently neutral trend) will change only when we have a 4H candle closing outside of the Triangle.
If that is above it, then we will buy and target within the 76.50 Resistance and the 4H MA200 at 75.50. If it closes to the downside, we will sell towards the Support and target 68.00. The fact that the 1D RSI is above its MA line, indicates that the bullish case is slightly favored.
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XAUUSD Will make a bottom lower but long term remains bullishGold (XAUUSD) closed yesterday a 1D candle below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 10 and that is a bearish continuation signal. As mentioned before, the long-term Support lever is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which provided the necessary support to rebound on the March 08 Low. That was a Higher Low at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started on the November 03 2022 bottom.
As a result, the trend remains bullish and that would be a great buy opportunity for the long-term, targeting 2100. Based purely on symmetry, the 1D RSI pivot suggests we could be at a similar level as February 09. In addition, watch how neatly the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level sits exactly on the Support level from previous Higher Low. On the Feb 28 Low, the price bottomed just before touching it.
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PALLADIUM Buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Last time we looked into Palladium (XPDUSD) is was almost a year ago:
This time the price has formed a Channel Up pattern after breaking above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line form the October 04 2022 High. The price is exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) now, near the bottom of the Channel Up, which makes it a technical buy. Our target is the top of the Channel Up at 1685. A break below the 1420 Support, will be a sell signal instead, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1200.
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XPTUSD Buy opportunity with High expected in June.Platinum (XPTUSD) is trading on a Triangle pattern which is within a larger Channel Up. Last time we had this sequence on patterns was last November-December. Once the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The current 1.5 Fib is at 1180 but we set a Target slightly lower at 1170. Notice how even the 1D MACD sequences between the two fractals are identical.
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XAUUSD Rebound on the 4H MA200. Strong bullish wave.Gold (XAUUSD) hit today the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 10 days and is rebounding towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up, which is what helped us take the break-out buy late last month as illustrated on the idea below:
This time the rebound is a clear bottom buy opportunity with a Higher Lows formation similar to April 03. A new closing above the 4H MA50 would basically confirm the buy signal. Both previous such rebounds targeted the 1.382 Fibonacci extension and the new one is at 2080.
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XAUUSD rising within the Channel Up on the 4H MA50Gold (XAUUSD) hit both of our targets on our previous short-term analysis (see chart below) as not only did it hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the March Channel Up, but it also pulled back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line):
As we pointed out, we expected that to be the Support and the recent rally since hitting it, validates that expectation. We expect this rebound to extend as high as the top of the Channel Up, hence target 2075. That is still under the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which was the target on the previous two Higher Highs waves.
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XAUUSD hit the August 2020 Resistance! Can it close above it?Gold (XAUUSD) hit the 2075 Resistance that was formed on the August 07 2020 market Top and was the level that made a new aggressive rejection on the March 08 2022 High, in the midst of the Russia - Ukraine war.
So far it has reacted with a rejection in the early trading sessions. They key in our view is the weekly (1W) candle closing. As long as it closes below the 2075 Resistance, we will short targeting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) on the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 1975. If the 1W candle closes above the 2075 Resistance, we will target 2190, assuming a similar rise range of +21.26% as the January 30 peak.
Keep an eye on the 1W RSI, which could be an early indicator. It has been trading under a Lower Highs trend-line since August 19 2019. Today it broke above it and turned overbought at 70.00 as it did recently on the January 2023 High. This may be an indication of a long-term break-out but at the same time getting overbought on 1W implying that a relief pull-back (that usually touches the 1D MA50 at least) may be in order.
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WTI OIL Very strong long-term Buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the last remaining targets as pointed out on our April 24 idea:
In fact, this completed our long-term 3 target approach as presented on our analysis three weeks ago:
That has come after a Double Bottom buy almost 2 months ago (March 16), which falls into our usual long-term swing trading approach that we apply successfully on our activities:
Right now we are on a similar buy opportunity like that idea above almost 2 months ago, as not only did the price bounce aggressively on the 64.50 Support (previous Low) but also the 1D RSI got oversold (30.00) and is rebounding. That has been a common feature on all previous Lower Lows within the long-term (8-month) Channel Down pattern that started on the August 30 2022 High.
Every bullish leg towards the Channel Down Top, has always hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is currently at 75.66 but declining aggressively and we expect contact to be made at 73.90, which is the top of the 5-month Pivot Zone (that has been a Support for 3 months straight). The previous Lower High (April 13) was made exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which is the long-term Resistance, so it is very likely to hit that level also on the long-term but until then we will have our outlook updated.
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XAUUSD Made the expected bullish break-out. 2070 on sight.Our Gold (XAUUSD) outlook is intact since last week's buy signal after the closing above the 4H MA50:
Our target remains 2070 which is the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the medium-term Channel Up pattern. Every pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is a buy opportunity.
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WTI OIL Channel Down extended selling to 72.50.Perfect execution of our plan last Monday for WTI Oil (USOIL) as the price initially rebounded to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), got rejected and hit our 74.00 target:
That is the top of the Pivot Zone that started back in mid-December. We are now expecting a (near) test of the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) as a Resistance to see if we'll get the rejection for bearish continuation as it happened on April 25. Our short-term target in this case is 72.50, the bottom of the Pivot Zone.
All this is part of course to our long-term trading plan:
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XAUUSD on a breaking point. Get ready for the big move.Gold (XAUUSD) closed above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday for the first time since April 14. This is the first major bullish signal in a while but it is not confirmed yet as the price remains and in fact got rejected on the (dashed) Channel Down.
A 4H candle close above it will be a buy signal for us, targeting the top of the Channel Up at 2070. On the contrary, a closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) will be bearish, targeting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1940.
Note the there is a Higher High Bullish Divergence on the 4H RSI, having rebounded after getting oversold.
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WTI OIL Filling the downside gap but short-term rebound.The WTI Oil (USOIL) got, as we expected, heavily rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), starting to fill the gap of March:
Our next target is 74.00, just above the Pivot Zone, but on the short-term, with the 4H RSI rebounding after getting oversold (has given a 100% buy signal short-term in the past 4 months), we expect a rise towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for rejection.
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XAUUSD - Long
As per my earlier post XAUUSD impulse down is completed and now price action is correcting the impulse in an ABC fashion in 5-3-5 pattern.
My target for this ABC is 2020. 2018 and 2030 are the .618%/.786% retracements from the impulse down wave from 2048-1969.
If we see any rejections on daily on these levels one can go short.
Trade Safe!
XAUUSD One step away from a major sell-offGold (XAUUSD) is testing the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that started a month ago (March 20). The previous two times it hit this line, the price rebounded and a new Higher High was made.
This time however the price has already been rejected twice on the 4H MA50, which keeps the short-term bearish (until it closes a 4H candle above it). With the 4H RSI oversold below 30.000 for the first time since March 07, we expect at least a short-term rebound towards the 4H MA50 and target 1995. If the candle closes above the 4H MA50, we will extend our buying strategy towards the top of the Channel Up, targeting 2060. If however we see a candle closing below the Channel Up, we will go short, targeting 1940 initially and upon a new 4H MA50 rejection, 1900 on the 0.618 Fibonacci.
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WTI OIL Broke below the 4H MA50. Sell confirmed.WTI OIL (USOIL) broke yesterday below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today upon re-testing it as a Resistance, it is currently being rejected. This is a major sell signal as since December 2022 inside the Resistance Zone, every such break-out was a confirmed sell. All prior 5 cases hit the Support Zone shortly after. Even an oversold 4H RSI doesn't mean a bottom will be formed. As a result we are confident to keep our medium-term sells (opened last week after the price got rejected on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line)) and target 74.00.
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XAUUSD Short-term pull-backs mean nothingThis is Gold (XAUUSD) on the 1M (monthly) chart where the long-term direction is best seen. Apart from the fast that it has been rebounding on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) since October, we can see that it has been trading within a Pitchfork, treating each trend-line as Resistance/ Support. At the same time, it gathers buyers every time the 1M RSI hits its Higher Lows trend-line and starts strong rallies when the MACD makes a Bullish Cross. The last such cross was completed on March.
This indicates that every short/ medium-term pull-back on Gold doesn't affect a strongly bullish long-term trend in a market that based on the Pitchfork has incredible upside potential.
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XAUUSD Sell this pull-back, buy on the low.Gold (XAUUSD) broke bellow the Inner Higher Lows trend-line (dashed) and is headed for the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again. The long-term pattern is a Channel Up but we see also a Diverging Channel Up that that formed the April 13 High. Sell this pull-back and buy when the 4H RSI hits the bottom of its Rectangle which has provided the previous 3 buy opportunities. This is likely to take place on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). Our medium-term target on that projected bounce is 2055.
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