WTI OIL Sell opportunity halfway through the bearish wave.WTI Oil (USOIL) is on a short-term bearish wave after getting rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line of January 23. As the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to form a Golden Cross with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), we are opening a new short-term sell targeting 74.50, right above the Higher Lows trend-line. As you see every 4H Golden Cross has been a respectable sell entry, all of which aimed ad the Higher Lows trend-line.
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Commoditysignals
XAUUSD Oversold RSI, bottom of the Channel = Buy opportunityGold (XAUUSD) got a massive rejection following Powell's comments on the potential of higher interest rate hikes. It hit the Symmetrical Support level of the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern we outlined on our previous analysis and so far seems to be rebounding. A potential Channel Up gives room for some more decline before an eventual recovery.
The 4H RSI just breached into the oversold territory and as it was a sell last Friday when it was overbought, so is a buy opportunity now that it is oversold. If broken, the final level of long-term Support is the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line), which provided the Support and big bounce last week. Our target is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), with a projected extension targeting 1860.
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XAUUSD We caught the bottom buy, now how high can it extend?Ten days ago we called a bottom on the exact market buy for Gold (XAUUSD) as the 1D RSI was approaching the oversold level:
This time we bring you an even more extensive perspective on the 2D time-frame, having found a fractal from 2019 that can lead Gold much higher than most anticipate, assuming of course the global market fundamentals continue to be the same.
As you see the two sequences (2022/23 on the left and 2018/19 on the right) share almost the exact characteristics, both starting a rally on an extremely oversold RSI (when most least expected it), having a rejection on a Lower Highs trend-line, finding Support on the 2D MA200 (orange trend-line) and forming a Golden Cross. This is where the current (2023) fractal stops as the first rally since the February High has started.
In 2019 the price broke easily above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) but was rejected on its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which made it fall more and make a marginally Lower Low, before th eventual hyper aggressive parabolic rally started that had a first stop on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension. On the 2023 fractal, the 0.618 Fib is at 1900. In 2019 this was formed exactly on the Golden Cross. The new Golden Cross will be completed tomorrow. If Gold doesn't reach 1900 by then and continues to rise, it is possible to ignore the bias of the 2019 fractal for one last Lower Low. A closing above the 0.618 Fib may also invalidate that. In any case, even in the event of one last pull-back, you can reserve a spot for one additional buy just under the 2D MA200. The target will more than make up for this risk as if the fractal is repeated, then the upside by the end of Summer can be anywhere within 2110 - 2190.
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XAUUSD Battling to stay bullish on this Resistance. $1870 eyed.We are updating on our view earlier this week:
Gold (XAUUSD) hit and got rejected today on the 1847.50 Symmetrical Resistance (February 20 High) as the 4H RSI turned overbought. Assuming the bottom reversal pattern is an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), we need a candle closing above the Symmetrical Resistance in order to extend buying towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and our 1870 medium-term target.
If instead it closes below the 1H MA50 (red trend-line) we expect to see a pull-back first to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and if closed below then the 1817.50 Symmetrical Support before rebounding.
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XAUUSD closed above the 4H MA50, first time since Feb 02!Gold (XAUUSD) is having the first major bullish break-out since it started its aggressive collapse on the February 02 top, as it closed a 4H candle today above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the top!
By doing so it also broke above the Falling Wedge pattern of the past two weeks and with the 4H RSI on Higher Lows (i.e. a Bullish Divergence), and this is a legitimate bullish reversal formation.
As the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line) formed the bottom, it is advised to buy initially the pull-backs to the 1H MA50 (red trend-line) and target the upper Fibonacci levels systematically. We will do this until the price approached the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), potentially within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib Zone and then re-evaluate.
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XAGUSD Our great masterplan continues to work to perfection.Since early last year, we have been following a certain buy low/ sell high approach on Silver (XAGUSD) after we identified that it has been trading inside a 2-year Channel Down:
We most recently turned bearish again on precisely the right time on our previous January 31 sell call:
Right now however, with the price having broken on Friday below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 30, it hit the 20.625 Support formed by the November 21 Low. This is potentially the formation of the Right Shoulder of a giant Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. With the 1D RSI deep below the oversold barrier, this is were we will attempt our first medium term buy targeting the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), any of the two gets hit first.
We will attempt an additional buy entry near the Higher Lows trend-line (holding since the September 01 Low), as this would complete a -19.50% decline, similar to the June 06 - July 14 pattern. Its target was a +15.10% rise to the 0.618 Fibonacci, but again we will settle for just the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 as targets.
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WTI OIL Two break-out buy signals11 days ago we took the best possible sell entry we could have as we shorted the exact top, calling for the best sell opportunity since December:
Right now the price is on a strong rebound, slightly higher than Support 1 (73.25) but with the 1D RSI on a confirmed reversal within its range. If you missed the bottom buy opportunity, wait for a 4H candle closing above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as this was a confirmed buy opportunity on all previous three occasions (circles). First target at 78.50 and if the price closes above the Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line, we will re-buy targeting 80.00.
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XAUUSD Major Support Cluster approaching. Strong buy.Gold (XAUUSD) is about to test the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line) after breaking the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Following the sell signal we gave last week, with the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) as Resistance/ entry point, we are starting to turn bullish on Gold after a long time.
The 1D RSI is very close to the 30.000 oversold barrier and that is our first buy entry. The last two times the 1D RSI breached that oversold territory, Gold rallied by +7.08% and +7.47% respectively, reaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on both occasions. If the 1W MA50 breaks, our second buy entry will be on the huge Support Cluster consisting of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and Support Zone 1.
On the short term we are targeting the 1D MA50. If we close a candle above it, we will re-buy and target 1935 (if the low is in today) or 1900 (if the rebound starts lower). In both cases this represents a +7.00% rise.
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WTI OIL Approaching the best sell entry since December.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been rising within the short-term Channel Up as presented on our analysis last week:
As previously mentioned, since December 12, WTI hasn't closed below the 72.40 Support or above the 83.30 Resistance. That keeps the price ranged and recurring patterns emerge. One of those is the current Channel Up which is quite similar to the Channel Up patterns of December 16 - 27 and January 05 - 18.
This is what helped us take the buy last week above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) gave a boost on February 09. The price is now approaching the orange Resistance Zone and technically a price near 81.50 is a Sell despite the presence of a Higher Highs trend-line.
The reason is that the previous two Chanel Up patterns took approximately 36 and 38 candles respectively from bottom to top. A 36 bar sequence gets completed tomorrow so by Wednesday the latest (if this fractal gets repeated again), the Channel Up should top. We are waiting for that top, or better yet Double Top, to sell again and target the 73.25 Support.
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XAUUSD Closing below the 1D MA50. Major bearish break-out.Gold (XAUUSD) got rejected just below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is following the downtrend as presented on our previous analysis:
We are re-adjusting the Fibonacci levels as they make a much more accurate fit for the uptrend, but right now we are about to make a strong bearish break-out as the price is attempting to close a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 03 2022, which was practically the bottom of the previous multi-month downtrend.
A new Channel Down has emerged, with three Lower Highs already, while the the 4H time-frame has completed a Death Cross (4H MA50 (blue) crossed below the 4H MA200 (orange)) for the first time since October 16 2022.
As you see, the Higher Lows and Higher Highs of the uptrend have so far formed the Lower Lows of the Channel Up. The next one is Support Zone 1 within 1827 - 1823.50 and its top is our first target. If it breaks, we will extend selling towards Support Zone 2 but will target the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) a little higher.
We will shift back to buying only if the price breaks above the 4H MA200.
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WTI OIL Recurring pattern turning it neutral mid-term?Our previous WTI Oil (USOIL) signal couldn't have gone any better as the bearish reversal was confirmed and we took the sell:
Following the rebound however after the (marginal) fake-out just below the 72.40 Support, we see the medium-term scene turning neutral. The reason is that since December 12, so effectively in the past 2 months, WTI hasn't closed below the 72.40 Support or above the 83.30 Resistance. And on top of that, the current rise looks quite similar to the Channel Up patterns of December 16 - 27 and January 05 - 18.
As a result, a clear candle closing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, is a buy signal targeting at least the 81.05 December 26 High. Also look how well the 1D RSI also fits into a range itself.
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XAUUSD Broke below the 4H MA200 after 3 months! What's next?Gold (XAUUSD) has its strongest 1D losses (-2.45%) in 7 months (since July 05 2022/ -2.47%) and managed to break below its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 3 months (since November 04 2022). Obviously this is a major technical development as the 1D RSI Bearish Divergence that was building up in January, eventually materialized the loss of strength into loss of price.
The long-term bullish trend hasn't been broken yet but is loosely supported after the 4H MA200 break on the Channel Up that started on November 10. Practically the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) just below is the true test of the uptrend. The 4H MA200 is now a Resistance but with the 4H RSI getting oversold and rebounding, it is likely to see a bullish market reaction (the last if this is the start of a downtrend) towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the current price is the lowest in a month.
A rejection on the 4H MA50 practically empowers the trend reversal but the true confirmation would be closing a day below the 1D MA50. The role of the Support Zones we display is crucial as they were both Resistance and Support levels previously. As you see currently the price is support on Zone 2. As a result we are willing to sell only below the 1D MA50 and target Support Zone 3. Below that we will target the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line).
In order to resume buying, we need to see the price break above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level again, which is both a bullish break-out point and rebound point inside the Channel Up.
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XAGUSD Hanging on a tight thread about to turn bearish.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 ( orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension .
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
At the moment, with a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that Silver is has been pushing downwards on the 1.382 Fib treating it as strong of a Resistance so far as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically since the price broke below the 1D MA50, the confirmation of the downtrend will come if it breaks inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which is exactly where today's low hit. That was the Bearish Signal on the April 19 2022 Ichimoku breach.
If that happens, we can see a nose-dive even as low as the 0.382 Channel Fib. Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame is being rejected on the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD closing above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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WTI OIL Bearish reversal confirmedWTI Oil (USOIL) is so far following the trading plan we presented 11 days ago, rising first towards the 83.40 Resistance and as it failed to break above it, it instead broke the short-term Channel Up downwards:
This basically confirms the bearish reversal of January's rally, with the price breaking below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but at the moment finding Support on both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). A new rejection on the 4H MA50 and closing below the 4H MA200/ 1D MA50 cluster, will be a sell signal for us, targeting first the Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line and the 70.10 in extension on the longer term.
Check also how the 1D RSI got rejected emphatically on its own Lower Highs trend-line.
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XAUUSD 1H Death Cross and the break-out levelsGold (XAUUSD) is close to forming a strong bearish pattern on the 1H time-frame, the Death Cross, which is when the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line). Last time it formed this was a month ago (December 26).
This is the first bearish signal on Gold in a long time and we are going to approach this by candle closings and Resistance/ Support levels. In the past 7 days, all 1H candles have closed above the 1919.50 Support (1) so we will go short upon a closing below it and target the Higher Lows trend-line (1) and the 4H MA100 (red trend-line). We are willing to extend this selling only if we close a candle below the 1911 Support (2) and target Support 3 (1895.50), where contact will most likely be made with 4H MA200 (yellow trend-line), which is the long-term Support during such uptrends.
Similarly, a break above the 1935 Resistance (1) will be a buy signal, targeting Resistance 2 (1949.50).
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XAUUSD Channel Up at the limitGold (XAUUSD) is now at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 1-month Channel Up. It has been closing above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 28, above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) since December 15 and above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since November 04! Needless to say, a closing below each MA would target the one below it.
As long as the Channel Up and 4H MA50 hold, we see a recurring +3.00% rise, three straight times, which at the moment targets 1955, where the April 22 2022 High was formed. The 4H RSI being on its Support Zone, is also a buy signal for as long as it holds and a sell if it breaks.
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XAUUSD This level separates buying from sellingGold (XAUUSD) is overextending its long-term bullish trend which we first called on our early November idea:
The overextension is being done within a Channel Up (green) pattern after the broke above the October 04 2022 Higher Highs and after the 1D RSI turned overbought above the 70.000 barrier on January 12. As long as the Channel Up holds, the price should aim at a new +3.00% (at least) Higher High extension, translated into a 1955 target.
A closing below the Channel Up though, should target the last known bounce level of January 05, the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and then the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which last made contact with on December 23. However given the fact that overextensions typically burst more emphatically, they test lower support levels. As a result, in our opinion, the next Support level will most likely be the zone within the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
A daily close below the 1D MA50 opens the way for the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line), which is the strongest long-term buy level, but less likely to get tested. Another long-term buy indicator to look out for is when the 1D RSI approaches the 30.000 oversold barrier.
In both cases, the long term target is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 1972.
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WTI OIL 4H Death Cross. Trade the break-outs.WTI Oil (USOIL) formed yesterday a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such (bearish) formation in almost 2 months (since November 17 2022). The price got rejected exactly on both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) following last week's rejection (January 03) on the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). We covered this on our last week analysis:
The only pattern that is in favor of Oil rising is the Channel Up of October 18 to November 07, which held the Medium-term Support. A similar Channel Up can re-test the 1D MA50 but as always on risky set-ups, it is best to trade the break-out. That is the 76.70 Resistance, between the 4H MA200 and 4H MA50.
On the downside, a break below the 72.50 Support, targets a Lower Low on the long-term Channel Down (dashed) close to 68.00.
As before, keep an eye on the 1D RSI, which has a clear Lower Highs trend-line that offers solid sell entries.
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XAUUSD Hit the June 2022 High. Potential pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) hit the 1880 Resistance, which was formed on the June 12 2022 High. As we mentioned in previous analysis the region within the October 04 Higher Highs and the 1880 June High is a strong Supply Zone and as you saw it already gave a short-term rejection.
If it fails to close a 1D candle above it, we are more likely to see a pull-back first towards the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) and then the 4H MA200 (green trend-line) and eventually the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact for 2 months (since November 08 2022). The 1D RSI also hit its Lower Highs trend-line that started on the November 15 High, indicating that we are on a major medium-term Resistance.
On the other hand, if Gold closes above the 1880 Resistance, expect a quick test of the 0.618 long-term Fibonacci at 1896 followed by the 1910 and 1920 May 05 and April 29 Highs respectively.
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XAUUSD 1D RSI Bearish Divergence before the Golden Cross.Gold (XAUUSD) is about to form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame (around next week), which is the bullish pattern when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The price has been trading within a Channel Up pattern, while at the same time the 1D RSI has been within a Channel Down. This is a technical Bearish Divergence.
A similar price action was last spotted around the January 15 2019 Golden Cross. Gold was again recovering within a Channel Up on an RSI Bearish Divergence, with the price having breached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level just before the Golden Cross. After a short 3-week pull-back, Gold resumed the uptrend even above the 0.786 Fib, and a little before completing the full reversal. Then it made a 2-month correction below the 1D MA50 and towards the 1D MA200.
This time however, the price hasn't made contact with the 1D MA50 at all in 2 months (since November 07 2022). If the USD and the US10Y search for their own 1D MA50, it is possible to see the price test 1D MA50 before rising further. In any case, keep dry powder for that, but the long-term trend remains bullish, which is something we projected would happen on our November 07 2022 analysis, after spotting the Triple Bottom on the RSI Higher Lows:
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NATURAL GAS Potential rebound but bearish long-term.Last time we gave a signal on Natural Gas (NG1!) in late November, we caught a perfect rejection and sell entry for a strong bearish December trend:
As you see, the price even closed below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), breaking its previous 1 year Bullish Megaphone pattern, so the trend is confirmed as bearish long-term. By doing so, it has formed a Channel Down whose bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) was hit and the price bounced yesterday. Today though it resumed the downtrend.
We believe the key here is the RSI on the 1W time-frame and the Falling Wedge pattern we identified last time. This is now on its bottom as it was on October 21 2022 Low, which caused the short-term rebound to a Lower High for the Channel Down.
As long as it holds, we expect the price to rebound on the short-term in order to test the 1W MA100 and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A rejection there should extend the Channel Down to a new Lower Low. A break of the Channel Down downwards earlier, will simply accelerate the downtrend to the 0.618 Fibonacci and the long-term Support Zone just above the 0.786 Fib. Notice that right now the price is on the 0.5 Fibonacci.
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