XAUUSD Pull-back expected. See where you can buy.Gold (XAUUSD) gave us another excellent buy entry on our most recent analysis last week (December 28) as we caught the exact low entry on the 4H MA50 (red tredn-line) and hit our 1830 target:
The price made a Higher High at the top of the Channel Up (green) that started after the November 15 High, exactly at 1850. The Double Sell signal was triggered not just because of this Higher High but also because the 4H RSI hit (even broke) its 2 month Lower Highs Resistance. This turns into a buy once the RSI enters the low dotted Higher Lows trend-line.
In price terms this should be within the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 (green trend-line) and with a new buy positions we will target the 1850 - 1860 zone. A closing below the 4H MA200 should put to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support for Gold on this 2-month uptrend.
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WTI OIL Struggling on the 1D MA50.It has been almost 20 days since our buy signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) after it hit the bottom of the (diverging) Channel Down (dashed lines):
As you see, the price hit our target on the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the previous Channel Down, but yesterday failed to break the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and gor rejected downwards. If it breaks and closes above the 1D MA50 (which happens to be around the 0.5 Fibonacci), we expect one last extension to the 0.618 Fib (84.80) and max the 0.786 Fib (88.80) and test the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Diverging Channel Down.
If however the price breaks and closes below the 4H MA50 (yellow trend-line), we will turn bearish instead, targeting the 73.30 Support and potentially (we will update the conditions with a new analysis) the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down.
As you may remember, the basis for our buy signal early in December was the similarities with the September sell-off fractal. See how on the 1D RSI the indicator got rejected exactly on the level where on October 04 the price hit the 1D MA50. Unlike yesterday and today, the price broke above it on Oct 05 as a result giving as a significant divergence from our model.
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XAUUSD Still within a medium-term Channel UpSince November 15 there hasn't been a more accurate pattern on Gold (XAUUSD) offering solid buy and sell levels:
As you see, the price made two excellent technical rebounds on the bottom of the Channel Up since our last analysis and yesterday made a new Higher High. The 4H RSI Triangle pattern did its job well again and at the moment, the price marginally broke the dotted buy zone and seems to be rebounding. Even though the price can drop into the 1790 - 1785 zone before rebounding, this is a good level to start building up buy positions and target 1830.
A break and close below the 4H MA200 (green trend-line) would however turn the medium-term momentum bearish towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which is the ultimate long-term Support during uptrends.
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WTI OIL Important test for the uptrend on the 4H MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been closely following our recent projections, both the perfect buy entry caught 12 days ago after spotting the Lower Lows bottom fractal similar to September 26, as well as the most recent buy 6 days ago after the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) held as Support:
We are again on the 4H time-frame, with the price continuing to replicate the post September 26 rise. At the moment it is testing the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price took a 1 day pause on October 04. Our signal to continue this uptrend is a closing above the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), where we will expect a new Lower High near the diverging Channel Down (dashed line) around the Rectangle.
Failure to do so, should have the price pull back and test the 4H MA50 again where a 1D closing below, will be a bearish signal for us targeting 72.00.
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XAUUSD Be careful with this RSI Bearish DivergenceGold (XAUUSD) is rising today supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The pattern is so far a Rising Wedge since the November 15 High and the next Higher High limit is currently at 1835.
At the same time, the 1D RSI has been within a Falling Wedge, indicating a Bearish Divergence. Though this is not a long-term sell signal, it certainly shows the potential of a technical pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which Gold hasn't had since the November rally started. The RSI though remains supported on a Higher Highs trend-line that started on the September 26 Low (and was what helped us predict the November rally), so as long as it does it remains short-term bullish.
As a result, we remain bullish as long as the price trades within the Rising Wedge, targeting 1834, but a break below it (also the 1D MA200) will be a short-term bearish signal for us towards the 1D MA50.
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XAUUSD Still bullish inside the 1 month Channel UpGold (XAUUSD) managed to break again today above the 4H MA50 (red trend-line), recovering yesterday's early session drop and that keeps it on bullish track, at least for the short-term as the Channel Up that started a month ago (On the November 15 High) remains intact.
In fact it seems to be replicating the previous Higher Low formation below the 4H MA50. From an RSI perspective, see how well it rebounded on the Triangle's bottom (even though it marginally broke it). Keep an eye on the upper Lower Highs trend-lines, for levels were profit can be booked if you are trading this on the short-term. On the medium-term as long as the 4H MA200 holds (green trend-line), the next Higher High can be a little lower than the 0.5 Fibonacci (1840).
A break below the 4H MA200 though, turns the medium-term trend bearish, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support during uptrends and is where we are waiting for a long-term buy entry.
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WTI OIL We caught a perfect buy entry, proceed as plannedOn our last WTI Oil (USOIL) analysis 6 days ago we caught the perfect buy entry after spotting the Lower Lows bottom fractal similar to September 26:
That chart was on the 1D time-frame and as you see, we got a perfect rebound that, moving into today's analysis on the 4H time-frame, broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We now have a similar pull-back to September 30 and the price is testing the 4H MA50 as Support. If we get the 1D closing above it, we expect this rebound to continue at least 79.50 (which is the former Channel Down top (1st red flag), below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). If the price closes above the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), be prepared for a potential new Lower High on the diverging Channel Down (dashed lines, 2nd red flag).
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XAGUSD Hit the extreme top of the 2 year Channel Down.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
So what now? With a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that the rejection 3 days ago is so far as strong as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically as long as the price is below the 1.382 Channel Fib, we should see a 1D MA50/ MA200 test, at least on the short-term. If after that the price fails to regain the 1D MA50, we can even see a nose-dive back to the 0.382 Channel Fib.
Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame just entered the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD not just closing above the 1.382 Channel Fib but above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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XAUUSD hit our target now waiting for break-outGold (XAUUSD) extended the rise as shown on our buy signal last week and tested the 1808 (August 10 High) Resistance:
We see no reason to diverge from our usual strategy and although the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) is holding, we consider the Higher Lows trend-line the real Support. As long as it holds, it makes a great short-term scalping opportunity within itself and the 1808 August 10 High. If the latter is broken we will aim for the top of the Higher Highs trend-line, with the 0.5 Fibonacci at 1842.50.
If the price breaks below though, which ahead of this week's heavy fundamentals (Tuesday U.S. CPI, Wednesday Fed Rate Decision) isn't at all unlikely, we will finally see the much necessary pull-back of the November materialized. First the 4H MA200 (green) bust mostly the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) are expected to provide Support around the 0.236 Fib (1722.50). Below the 1D MA50, the price should complete an Ascending Triangle pattern by attempting to test the 1615 Support (Triple Bottom).
Note the Triangle that the 4H RSI has been trading in since the November 03 Low. It can be very useful for short-term buy and sell entries.
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US Crude Oil At Support Level for Long Trade.US crudeoil is at support level . it is also trading at very support level of channel pattern . According to chart pattern analysis we might see bounce back in us crudeoil from current level towards the 80 level .
trade with stop loss and own capital risk management.
views / opinions are welcome to discuss.
WTI OIL Set to rebound back to $84 based on this patternWTI Oil (USOIL) is repeating the September correction pattern, which made a September 26 Low and then rebounded aggressively. A common feature is the symmetrical Lower Lows on the 1D RSI sequences. If that rebounds here next week, we expect Oil to reach, first the top of the June Channel Down (blue circle) and if broken, then move at least to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a diverging Channel (dashed lines).
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WTI OIL Shouldn't rebound before testing this levelWTI Oil (USOIL) failed emphatically last week to break the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it was rejected just below it and made yesterday and today a new market Low. Based on the RSI sequence as well, the rejection seems similar to September 14 that ended up making a new Low on the Lower Lows Zone (since July 14) on the -0.3 Fibonacci extension.
This extension is currently at 67.55 and we don't expect any meaningful rebound before testing that level. If it does, a rebound back to the 1D MA50 to test again the strength of this multi-month correction is very likely.
Alternatively you can keep an eye on the 1D RSI. Once it gets oversold near 30.00, buy and if it breaks the Lower Highs trend-line, confirm the 1D MA50 target.
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XAUUSD Can it extend the November rally without a pull-back?Gold (XAUUSD) found Support on its 4H MA50 (red trend-line), trading on it since yesterday. There is a Higher Lows trend-line also supporting right below and as long as it does, it will aim at the 1808 August 10 High again and the top of the Higher Highs trend-line, with the 0.5 Fibonacci at 1842.50.
If the price breaks below though, we will finally see the previously overbought level of the November rally getting normalized. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is expected to provide Support around the 0.236 Fib (1722.50) where the 1D RSI could hit the Higher Lows. Below the 1D MA50, the price should complete an Ascending Triangle pattern by attempting to test the 1615 Support (Triple Bottom).
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WTI OIL Inverse H&S completed. Ready for a $90 rebound?The WTI Oil (USOIL) materialized the rebound that we called on Monday exactly on the 73.60 bottom:
The pull-back since yesterday's High is close to the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) and is similar to the one during September 29/30, which is within the rebound sequence we've been modelling the new rebound from. The Channel Up (green) doesn't need to be as aggressive as then but the 1D RSI seems to be right on track also rebounding near oversold levels.
This time we see a clear Inverse Head & Shoulders forming (IH&S), basically about to get completed, which is a technical reversal pattern found on market bottoms. Short-term traders can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. On the longer term we expect the price to reach the Zone within the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (89.45) and the 90.15 Symmetrical Resistance.
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XAUUSD Closed above the 1D MA200 but important Resistance ahead!Gold (XAUUSD) closed yesterday above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since June 16, making a Higher High on the trend-line that started on the October 04 High. We've discussed about the Ascending Triangle pattern since the September 28 low and with yesterday's move, Gold finally hit our long pursued 1800 target:
Even though closing above the 1D MA200 is a huge development after so many months, we currently see a strong Resistance cluster. First of all, the 1808 Resistance from the August 10 High. Even in the event of a closing above the Higher Highs trend-line, the upside is limited to the 0.5 Fibonacci level (1842.50) and the Pivot Zone (blue) it typically creates. See how the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibs acted as Resistance Zones (the 0.236 recently as Support, thus treating them as Pivots).
As a result this can only be a short-term target, in the event that Gold closes above the 1808 August 10 High. On the other hand, a closing below the 1D MA200 can first test the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) as a short-term Support and then the 0.236 Fib as it did on November 23. The long-term Support, and best buy entry is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A closing below it, turns the long-term trend back to bearish, targeting 1,630.
Notice how the 1D RSI has a Higher Lows trend-line that since September 26 has caught all three bottoms, thus most optimal buy entries. Use that if the RSI touches the trend-line again.
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PLATINUM The 1D MA50 is the key. Potential long-term bull.Platinum (XPTUSD) has been trading within a (very) long-term Triangle pattern since the September 24 2020 Low. That was the low that initiated a massive rally to the February 16 2021 High that started the long-term Lower Highs trend-line, which lastly rejected the price November 11 2022.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the key here. As long as it holds, there are good chances that Platinum will push for another Lower Highs test and potentially a break-out, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will pursue the Symmetrical Support Zone as our short-term target and the September 24 2020 low (830.00) as our long-term.
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WTI OIL Strong rebound on oversold RSI Resistance.The WTI Oil (USOIL) almost turned oversold on its 1D RSI today and the last time it approached the 30.000 level was on September 26. That was the low of the multi-month downtrend, with Oil making a counter trend rebound to 93.65 in just 10 days!
On the short-term, the Resistance that has been intact since November 15 is the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). Breaking above it would be confirmation of the rebound extension. On the medium-term the target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). On the long-term it can be within 89.50 - 90.00, the first is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the second represents a +22.60% rise, identical with the rise of September 26 - October 10.
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XAUUSD Bullish break-out targeting 1800Gold (XAUUSD) broke and closed above the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since November 18 and turned the short-term trend bullish again. The target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is just below the 1800 psychological level, and has been unbroken since June 23.
Notice how perfectly the November 23 low and rebound was made on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Next long-term buy signal, when the 1D RSI hits its Higher Lows trend-line.
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COPPER looks doomed on the long-term. Sell the rallies.Copper (HG1!) on the 1W time-frame appears to be repeating the previous major Bear Cycle that started in 2011/12. Based on this fractal analysis, the recent 1W rejection just below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) puts us at a proportionate level as on the February 06 2012 1W candle. Having rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) both on the July 11 and September 26 candles, we expect initially to reach it again and then rebound to make a Lower High and form a trend-line similar to that of 2012 - 2014 that made structured Highs to sell that took Copper to the 2.000 - 1.9360 Support Zone.
This long-term bearish pattern will get invalidated if the price breaks above the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, which was where (slightly below) the price was rejected on the February 06 2012 1W candle.
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XAGUSD Huge sell opportunitySilver (XAGUSD) has been trading since September exactly like we wanted it to, as we have been tracking its long-term Channel Down pattern correctly:
Our 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target has been hit, with the price also marginally breaking above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down (Fibonacci level 1.0). That doesn't call for a bullish extension towards the 1.382 Fib like the Ukraine - Russia was extreme did, as the price quickly retraced back below the 1D MA200.
This continues to replicate the rebound after the Internal Lower Lows, which is the fractal that helped us take that buy trade on September. That sequence, following the 1D MA200 rejection, pulled-back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Since the current top on the September - November bullish leg was made a Fib level higher, we are setting the targeted low higher as well, on the 0.382 Fib instead of the 0.236.
The next buy opportunity would be when the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold barrier again.
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XAUUSD Short-term weakness. Buy lower or if this level breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) broke below its 4H MA50 (red trend-line) on Friday for the first time since November 04, which was when the strong rally started on the Triple Bottom. Having failed to reach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the long-term Resistance and difference maker between a long-term bullish and long-term bearish trend, this is most likely the start of a much needed technical pull-back.
The Support levels are the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). If this repeats the October 04 - October 21 Bearish Leg, then it could reach 1670 but looks unlikely as this is below not only the 1D MA50 and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (1681).
Perhaps the best indicator to buy is when/ if the 1D RSI hits its Higher Lows trend-line from the September 26 Low. If the pull-back is discontinued and the price rises instead, then we will buy the break-out above the 4H MA50. The target in both cases is the 1D MA200.
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XAUUSD Approaching the 1W MA100. Bullish above, bearish below.Gold (XAUUSD) is approaching the most critical level of its long-term trend. That is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which is currently at 1802.69 and tends to be the deciding factor between Gold's Bull and Bear Cycles.
This sample on the 1W time-frame starts from late 2009 and it shows that when Gold is in an uptrend and the 1W MA100 supports, the Bull Cycle remains. When it is broken decisively with successive candle closings below, the 1W MA100 from Support turns into the Resistance of the new Bear Cycle.
That last happened in mid June 2022. Based on both the 1W MACD and RSI, it would appear that the 2020 - 2022 price action follows the 2011 - 2013 sequence that initiated the Bear Cycle of the mid 2010s. As you see, the 1W MA100 didn't break until February 2016, where a three year consolidation/ accumulatio phase started that gave way to the recent Bull Cycle.
As a result, we are on pivotal crossroads on Gold right now as it approaches yet again the 1W MA100 like in early August 2022 where it failed. Successive closings above it, would mean that the Bear Cycle is invalidated and at worst we enter a new accumulation period, waiting for the new Bull rally. Until that happens, expect the price to get rejected near or on the 1W MA100, which maintains the bearish long-term trend.
Which direction do you think Gold will break to?
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WTI OIL Strong Support cluster. Fractal pointing to $93.00.The WTI Oil (USOIL) followed the exact projection we made earlier this week, as after a rebound to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it got rejected again and even broke as low as the Support Zone 1:
By doing so it reached the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is the most important long-term Support. Last time it hit that level (September 26), it made an incredible rebound immediately. As you see we projected this drop on the bearish fractal of October 10 - 18. Plotting (yellow line) it on the price action since the November 07 rejection, it made a fairly accurate projection. This time we even looked at the September 14 - 26 bearish leg and as you see, the yellow fractal fits that one fairly well too. Also the resemblances between their 4H MACD sequences are evident.
Technically the 1W MA100 should hold and provide a rebound first to the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and then towards the 93.75 Resistance. As with the September 26 bottom, we give it a small tolerance limit to allow for a fake-out. If this is exceeded, we'll take it as a sell break-out signal, targeting the 77.25 - 76.25 Support Zone (2).
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