Long Soybeans1) Commodities are on a run
2) Soybeans is in an upward trend
3) Instrument $SOYB Teucrium Soybean ETF
Commoditysignals
WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance.
Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break.
A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling.
A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario.
The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone.
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XAUUSD Channel Up needs a 1D MA50 test before new All Time HighsGold (XAUUSD) has been trading inside a Channel Up on the 4H time-frame since the March 16 bottom. The 1D MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting. As long as the Channel Up holds, keep buying near the Higher Lows trend-line and selling near the Higher Highs trend-line.
Based on the 4H MACD, this Channel Up resembles that of December - January. That pattern upon reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, it pulled-back to the 0.236 Fib before eventually breaking above the 1877.75 Resistance. The 1D MA50 has been holding as Support ever since.
As a result, you can expect a potential pull-back towards the 0.236 Fib (1932) before a new rally.
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XAUUSD made a bullish break-out, one last barrier left to break.We saw Gold (XAUUSD) trading sideways last week but this Monday broke above the 1966 short-term Resistance:
As per our trading plan, that was a short-term bullish break-out signal that should be enough to test the 2010 level. We have this as the long-term bullish break-out level, above which Gold should target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the long-term Channel Up and our target zone will be 2085 - 2120.
Another strong bullish development is the fact that the price rebounded once it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 07. As long as the 1D MA50 supports, the trend should continue to be bullish and even a rejection on the 2010 invalidation level, should get a second chance at breaking it.
We have a bearish break-out signal if the price closes below the 1915 short-term Support. Another closing below 1880 will be another sell position for us, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Important Note:
The 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. Inside the past 12 months, this has been a bullish signal 5 out of 6 times.
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ALTSEASON might be right around the corner.This is the Crypto Total Market Cap excluding Bitcoin, which illustrates the Capitalization of the rest of the cryptocurrency market (altcoins essentially).
As you see, this index has been trading around the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since late January 2022, basically since the start of the year, with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) firmly supporting below. Practically the market has been consolidating in a sideways (wide though) trade since May 2021.
The last time we saw the price consolidating around the 1W MA50 was in Q3 - Q4 2019. That was the 1st Accumulation Phase of this Cycle. If it weren't for the Black Swan event of the COVID melt-down in March 2020, the index would have continued rising after breaking above the 1W MA50 for the last time.
This chart shows all Accumulation and Rally phases since 2014. The RSI patterns on all are similar. I speculate that the current Accumulation Phase (which is this Cycle's 2nd) is about to end because the 1W RSI is completing the curve pattern upwards as it has broken above its MA (black line) for the second time.
If it does, then the 2nd Rally of the current Cycle should start, which is essentially what we call an 'Altseason'.
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WTI OIL is correcting. Continue to fall or new rally ahead?A month ago when WTI Oil was testing historic Highs due to the escalation of the Ukraine - Russia war, I called for the need to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
That day turned out to be the market top (to this date) and Oil did pull-back to the 1D MA50. In fact after the first 1D MA50 test (and hold), the price rebounded but only managed to make a Lower High and eventually got rejected back towards the 1D MA50 again, which held (so far) for the 2nd time. It is obvious that as long as it holds, it makes a stronger case for a new rebound. If that breaks above the prior Lower High/ Resistance of 117.00, then we can claim that the long-term bullish trend will be extended and in the next 3 months we will see successive Higher Highs. The basis for this, as I also analyzed on my March 08 analysis, is the similarities of the past 6 months of Oil's price action with the September 2020 - March 2021 sequence.
On the other hand, if the 1D MA50 fails and a 1D candle closes below it, WTI should seek the next Resistance Zone which consists of the Prior High of 85.50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 80.75. A closing below the 1D MA200, could open the way to a new Bear Cycle.
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GOLD Giant Cup & Handle or new Bear Cycle long-term?This is a long-term perspective on Gold (XAUUSD) following the March top rejection, which was largely led by the geopolitical fundamentals (Ukraine - Russia war). In fact that was a Double Top near the 2075 Resistance of the August 2020 All Time High (ATH).
Such Double Top rejections typically lead to selling sequences, and so far this is what we see in the weeks that followed (this chart is on the 1W time-frame). The RSI pattern of the March rejection is identical to that of the August 2020 ATH. This time, however, we can identify a giant Cup pattern, and technically what follows is the Cup formation of the pattern. This formation typically breaks higher, above the previous Resistance and into a strong rally. But how can we determine if that is indeed a Cup & Handle pattern (C&H) or if a new long-term Bear Market is ahead of us after the Double Top?
Well, one way to look at it is by seeing if the Symmetrical levels (Resistances and Supports) play any part. A break below the 1850 Symmetrical Support 1, would most likely hint to a new Bear Cycle on the long run as that would also mean a break below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line. When that happened in February 2021, it took the market more than 1 year to recover the November 2020 High and that was a Bear Cycle.
The November 2020 High is the Symmetrical Resistance. A break above that level, after the price trades within the Channel Down indicated, would mean that the C&H pattern is confirmed, and that the Handle will give way to a new Parabolic Rally, similar to the one that led the market to the August 2020 All Time High.
Which of the two do you think is the case? Cup and Handle into new All Time Highs or Bear Cycle?
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XAUUSD Trading plan depending on Resistance and Support levelsGold (XAUUSD) remained within the Triangle range that we suggested last week, and is so far consolidating, staying on neutral sentiment:
However, this neutral sentiment may change if certain Resistance and Support levels change and we should be ready to react. This is why I'm making the current analysis on the 4H time-frame, to better illustrate those break-out levels.
First of all, the price broke yesterday below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 07, so that alone is an early bearish signal. Until 1910 breaks though, Gold remains neutral within the 1910 Support and the 1966 Resistance, giving us a short-term opportunity for scalping profit. A break above 1966 is bullish towards 2010, while a break (4H candle closing) below 1910 is bearish towards Support Zone 1.
Based on Gold's price action since August 2021 within the former Channel Up, the price always tested the Support Zone of the previous low after a Higher High. That is currently at within 1875 - 1884. This is below the 1D MA50, so technically if 1875 breaks, we can easily see aggressive selling towards the 1D MA200 (red dotted trend-line) and then Support Zone 2, but of course that is on the long-term and until then we will make more short-term updates depending on how the price action goes.
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XAUUSD long-term bullish and bearish levels.Gold (XAUUSD) has exhausted the late February - early March rally and since the March 08 peak, has corrected back near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is the 1st Support and should be enough to hold the price for at least another 3 weeks.
Basically that rally and subsequently the blow-off top, resembles the rally and correction of the August 11 2020 peak. After the blow-off top, Gold consolidated within a Triangle and when the 1D MA50 broke, the price eventually turned bearish on the long-term with the next Support being the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
The reason it failed to turn bullish instead, was because it didn't make a Higher High outside the Triangle. As a result, we have that break-out level/ Resistance at around 2010, so above that level, we expect Gold to turn bullish again. On the other hand, a break below the 1D MA50, as in 2020, should add more selling pressure towards the 1D MA200.
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PLATINUM Perfect long-term Channel with 2 extremes to consider.Platinum (XPTUSD) got rejected two weeks ago on the 'war candle' on the 1W time-frame and is on the 3rd straight red week since. The importance of that rejection, is that the candle closed within the metal's long-term (almost 4 year) Channel Up that started half-way through 2018. As you see XPTUSD tends to trade exclusively within this Channel Up structure, unless a 1W candles closes outside (either above or below) the pattern.
In almost 4 years we had two such 'extreme' cases, one was the March 2020 market crash due to the COVID pandemic, which was the bearish extreme that reached as low as (marginally breaking) the -1.0 Fibonacci extension level and the other the Q1 2021 bullish extreme that reached as high as (marginally breaking) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. Notice who both distances are symmetrical on the extremes and that in both cases the candles, despite breaking marginally below/ above, they managed to close back inside the Fibonacci extensions.
This pattern provides a low risk frame-work to long-term investors. Buy low and sells high within the Channel and if the pattern breaks and closes a 1W candle outside its top/bottom, trade to the direction of the break-out, either towards the -1.0 Fib or the 2.0 Fib.
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WTI OIL Can the death fractal of 2008 be repeated?We haven't looked into WTI Oil recently, the last post I made was on March 08, calling what I thought at the time as the medium-term peak:
The price did eventually pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded as it constitutes the medium-term Support, following the March 2021 sequence.
On a much larger scale though, and since the war isn't over yet and inflation runs wild, I thought it would be beneficial looking at the last time similar conditions were leading the Oil market higher. Sadly, that was during the 2008 peak of the U.S. Housing Bubble.
As you see, today's 2021-2022 fractal can be related to a great extent to the 2007-2008 sequence. If the market dynamics have been indeed aligned as in 2008, then Oil has entered the final phase towards the blow-off top, as it rebounded on its 1D MA50. Now of course, reaching the 2.382 Fibonacci extension around $178.00 for a blow-off top, seems even under the latest aggressive conditions, as unrealistic. But a value around $150.00 as a Higher High to the March 08 shock, could very well be printed.
Do you think the market will follow in 2008's footsteps and if so what is your projected top?
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XAUUSD Megaphone about to break downwardsGold has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone since the February 03 Low. At the moment, the price is testing the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone for the first time since February 25. This is exactly where the 4H MA100 (green trend-line is).
In RSI terms, the 40.500 level has been supporting the Higher Lows since the start of the Megaphone, but today it broke. Naturally if the Higher Lows trend-line breaks, the Fibonacci retracement levels will be targeted: the 0.5 Fib at 1925.75 and the 0.618 Fib at 1891.30, which is where the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is.
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XAGUSD Pull-back are a buy to $29.00 - 30.00What was set in motion last October when the price rebounded on the 1W MA100, is taking place now, as Silver (XAGUSD) broke above its 1W MA50.
On the shorter time-frame of 1D (current chart), the price appears to be replicating the December 2020 aggressive rise, which initially reached almost the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (28.000) and after a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) pull-back, tested the 30.000 Resistance.
This time, the rally broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 16 2021. Our long-term strategy is to buy every pull-back up to the 1D MA50 and look to book profits within the 29.000 - 30.000 Zone.
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COMMODITIES running wild everywhere. Decade-long cycles in play.The talk of the street, since the war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, has been how aggressively commodities have been rising. Of course this rise hasn't started this month or the previous but is the outcome of inflation running high on historic levels since the March 2020 COVID crash, when global central banks (more importantly the Fed and the ECB) engaged in enormous economic rescue packages through liquidity by money printing at a historic pace.
I have excluded Gold (XAUUSD), which is the obvious counter to inflation and safe haven during times of geopolitical unrest and instead have included WTI Oil, Corn, Lumber and Wheat as representative commodities. I will not go into detail for each one separately, as the charts are pretty much self-explanatory. The goal here is to illustrate their long-term Cycles and how similar today's rise is to those of the previous cycle.
As you see, what is happening today is no different to what happened in the previous Cycle. All commodities seem to be approaching their respective symmetrical tops when compared to their previous Cycle. That is more evident on WTI Oil, Corn and Lumber. When their previous Cycles peaked, the price always went back to the 1M (monthly) MA200 (orange trend-line).
If you are a long-term investor, such charts help at giving a very clear perspective as to what action should be taken in portfolio making.
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XAUUSD Targets in case of further war escalation or deescalationGold has seen a rapid rise in recent weeks as investors seek safe haven shelter during the start of the Ukraine - Russia war. The result has been an aggressive detachment of the price from its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), where Gold has been trading around using it as a pivot since August 2021.
There is a long-term Channel Up involved so, as long as Gold manages to make 1D candle closings within it (roughly below 2050), it is more likely to see a relief pull-back to the 1D MA50 again.
On the other hand though, a consistent close above the top of the Channel Up could set course for a new All Time High (ATH) at 2200. As you see, this case is supported by the hyper aggressive May - August 2020 fractal. After a consolidation (blue ellipse pattern), the price broke to the upside and a Channel Up (green) fueled the final rapid rise to the ATH at the time. Right now, the 1D RSI seems to agree to the scenario that we've just breaking above the green Channel Up. Be prepared to trade according to the 1D candle closings.
P.S. As an investor, it may be useful for you to trade based on the long-term pattern. Going back in my literature, see how Gold now broke above the Handle of its multi-year Cup & Handle pattern, potentially eyeing prices as close as $3000 within this decade:
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WTI OIL in need of a pull-back to the 1D MA50.One of the biggest (if not the biggest) winner of the current war between Russian and Ukraine, is Oil. Energy crises are almost a certainty in times of geopolitical conflicts involving major producers. Even though it is tough predicting technically WTI prices while war is ongoing, charting past fractals could give an idea to where, at least the next consolidation phase could be.
The price action from November 2021 to today has been so far fairly similar to the sequence from November 2020 to March 2021. Both have gone on a slightly above +100% rise since their November lows. Right now the current 1D RSI sequence is exactly on the February 17 2021 RSI top, which prompted the price to enter a Channel Up that eventually led to a Top two weeks later.
Based on this and of course assuming that the war is entering its final stage and will not escalate into a multi-month conflict involving more countries, WTI Oil may be entering an exhaustion channel that will eventually lead to a pull-back on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is what happened in March 2021. After that, and depending on how the geopolitical stage will look like, we will re-evaluate our thesis.
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NATURAL GAS Head & Shoulders of Donbas annexation vs 2014 CrimeaThis is Natural Gas on the 1D time-frame. The recent acts of war by Russia in Ukraine and the annexation of the Donbas region has created a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal sequence forming market tops. This is similar to some extent with the pattern formed in February - March 2014 when Russia again committed acts of war against Ukraine by annexing the Crimea region.
In both cases the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was is Support. In March 2014, the situation was de-escalated by a Channel Down, following the peak (head) of the formation. At the moment NG may be forming a similar Channel Down. Could this be a sign of de-escalation and follow up of lower prices in the coming months for Natural Gas?
P.S. Always keep in mind Natural Gas' multi-year cyclical behavior as I accurately displayed on the following chart:
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WTI OIL at $100! Best short for the next 12 - 18 months!WTI Oil is among the major gainers of the current geopolitical conflict in Ukraine, hitting the $100 mark for the first time in roughly 8 years. Fundamentally this happens most of the times during periods of unrest or even worse war, such as the one that broke out yesterday. In times like these, it is very useful and most efficient to zoom out of short-term charts and look into the longer term picture. Long-term investors should be particularly interested in what this analysis reveals about WTI's outlook for the next 12 months.
This is on a 1W time-frame and displays Oil's in Eras of 10 years (roughly). The current spans from the June 2014 Top until today and is very similar so far with the one from October 1990 to October 2000. Given the fundamentals of the two periods, with roughly similar geopolitical tensions in a 10 year span, it is no surprise that the Cycles' legs are identical. What's left of the current Cycle is leg (6), which represents a major correction back to the High Volatility Zone, which currently is within roughly the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels (as opposed to the 1990s which was within 0.5 - 0.618). This suggests that based on Oil's cyclical behavior, its systemic response should be a correction within roughly $53 - $43. It may seem, and surely is, a long way from the current $100 landmark but so was the $100 target we at Tradingshot suggested back in June 07 of last year when the price was still at $69.20, but clearly had broken above a 13 year Lower Highs trend-line:
In our opinion, as this energy and geopolitical crisis will come to an end, WTI will turn into one of the best sell opportunities for the next 12-18 months.
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WTI Oil Turning Parabolic 82.50Since WTI Oil broke the former two Resistance levels (74.15 and 77.00), the price turned parabolic outside the Channel Up that dominated most of the price action in September. There seems to be a Buy/ Support Zone consisting of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and a Resistance Zone on the RSI Higher Highs trend-line.
Technically those two pressure levels should provide the next dip buy and target. I've applied the Fibonacci Channel to assist in finding the target and as you see every Fib extension prices a Higher High (1.0, 1.5, 2.0). Naturally the 2.5 Fib extension is next, I project a Higher High around $82.50.
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UKOIL short position selling from the 80sAs the new year begins, the markets are a little quiet but in the oil , markets seem a little confusing, Based on OPEC-JMMC Meetings we made our view on the oil market.
"That's one way of looking at it OPEC plus seems confident that despite omicron spreading rapidly around the world and with cases rising it's not going to have that much of an impact on oil demand the group is expecting the oil market to be in a supply surplus in the first and second quarters"
While the U.S airlines have canceled and delayed thousands of flights since 23 December 2021, The energy sector will depend on storage more than consumption in the coming period.
OPEC plus is probably not almost certainly not going to actually add 400 000 barrels a day to the market because of supply problems incertain members in the oil club.
I see OPEC crude oil production increasing since Jul 2020 :
24.82M bbl /d on Jul 2020
to be 28.87M bbl /d in Aug 2021
Making the oil production increase +16.31% in one year.
The technical view
you will see 83.00 -82.00 area as a supply area on the chart,
also, 86.50 - 85.00 area is a strong historical supply area.
The Market tend to sell from these areas, we may see some increase in the price shortly
but in the volume indicator the average volume is in decline
For the position
I recommend a sell order from 83.00 -81.50 area
Sell limit on 84.5- 86.5 in case the market still growing before retrograding
Targets
1st target 77. 40 - 77.00 demand area
2nd target 68.40- 69.10 demand area
The period of the Positon is more than 1 month up to 5 months (estimated )
This is a swing trade so be patient we estimate +16% to +20% profit for 5 months
The news and numbers source coming from
theoilsellers.com/
news.cn/
ycharts.com/
COPPER is one of the best investments on a 2 year basisInvestors looking for value long-term better have a look at Copper, which has been consolidating ever since its May 2021 All Time High (ATH). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting all this time, indicating that the market has found a new long-term demand zone where buyers step in.
The last time a similar demand level on the 1W MA50 took place was half-way through Copper's historic parabolic rally of the 2000s. In particular, in February 2004, the market made a similar High (red flag), then turned sideways into a +1 year accumulation period, when again the 1W MA50 was supporting. Eventually that demand level initiated the last and more aggressive part of this rally during 2005-2006. The 1W RSI sequences between the accumulation phases of today and 2004 are also identical.
The 2006 rally peaked a little higher than the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That should be a solid benchmark for long-term investors looking for value.
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XAUUSD Time to start selling?Gold has been one of the major winners of the recent geopolitical crisis in Ukraine and while capitalizing also on the growing inflation, it is approaching the top of the Major Channel Up it's been trading in since the August 09 2021 bottom.
As I explained on my previous XAUUSD analysis at the start of the month, the Higher High is technically on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension:
On the current chart we can see that this 3.0 Fib metric for tops has been consistent for a 12 month basis as the same happened with the March 2021 Channel Up. Since we've already hit the 2.5 Fibonacci level, you should all have made respectable profit already from buying low in February, so now I turn my attention to build up sell positions. The previous two corrections from 3.0 Fib tops have pulled-back to at least the 1.0 Fib, which is now at 1814.50. A more conservative target is the 1D MA50, which is currently at 1822.90 and rising.
As a conclusion, when investing/ trading Gold, I urge to keep always in mind the long-term technical trend and fundamentals. In January I published the following chart on the 1W time-frame, indicating that when Gold breaks above its 1.5 years Triangle, it resume the long-term bullish trend:
A long-term bullish trend, which I analyzed in more detail yesterday, comparing it to the rising inflation. You may even go further back in my literature and see how Gold now broke above the Handle of its multi-year Cup & Handle pattern, potentially eyeing prices as close as $3000 within this decade:
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WTI OIL Head and Shoulders top on the Megaphone?I haven't updated my WTI Oil thesis since the start of the month when I first started calling for a potential market top and a stop to buying activity.
Well this top may have been formed now as WTI has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, right at the top (with the Head actually slightly above it) of the Megaphone pattern. Also that took place exactly on the Ichimoku Squeeze which was a marker for the prior Higher High of the Megaphone on October 25 2021. On top of all that, the 1D RSI got rejected, in fact made a Double Top rejection exactly on its 77.00 Resistance, which made the rejections of the two previous Higher Highs of the Megaphone on July 05 and October 25 2021.
I am expecting the price to start pulling back this week or by next the latest (depending of course on the Ukraine conflict) and correct towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term.
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