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Commoditysignals

XAUUSD could be on the brink of collapse.This is a chart that no-one in the Gold (XAUUSD) market (or as a matter of fact in the metals market) wants to see fulfilled as the 1M (monthly) time-frame presents a devastating scenario for the next 1 year at least. As you see this is based on a fractal taken from Gold's previous Cycle Top (September 2011). The 1M RSI particularly has been on a bearish trend since the July 2020 peak and is following almost precisely the peak pattern of Aug 2011. Right now it appears that the market could be after the September 2012 final High which started a violent 1 year correction below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). See that both the candle action and the MA periods involved, align almost perfectly with the price right now trading below the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line), having broken below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) which on February 2013 was the trigger signal for the collapse. Being close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, we may have the first Support involved but watch for a 1D MA200/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross. That should be enough technically to hit at least the 1M MA50 in the coming months. That level has been holding since the start of Gold's mega rally in December 2018. Closing below that on a monthly basis would be devastating as the market can lose confidence completely and go on to test the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), which surprisingly or not has been untouched for almost 20 years since August 2003! We have to note that the macro-environment is different now as 1) we are not getting out of a crisis/ recession as severe as the 2008/09 Subprime Mortgage crisis and 2) the Fed Interest Rate is not flat as in 2013 but is rising aggressively instead. As a result this technical fractal may not repeated because such fundamentals are strong enough to invalidate it. As a result a proper investor should keep an eye on the macro-economic developments (Fed, war, inflation) and be ready to close a technical position if it gets invalidated as quickly as possible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
11
XAUUSD completed 2 months below the 1D MA50. What's next?Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the March 31 2021 Low, with the exception of two extremes, one Low (August 09 2021) caused by the NFP report and one High (March 08 2022) caused by the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war. What's even more interesting is that Gold has been trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 2 full-months (since April 25). In fact the latest rejection on June 13 has turned the price action neutral around the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). However as long as we remain above the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Up, there is a strong chance of getting a rally. Needless to say, a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 is required. This sideways price action since the May 16 Low seems like a bottom formation that (in RSI terms also) resembles July-August 2021. This would create numerous buy low sell high trading opportunities before a rally to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Fundamentally as long as the macro condition on stocks stays that way, Gold takes the hit of they high US10Y. Keep an eye on a potential reversal there if you want to better time a break upwards. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
1
PALLADIUM Buy signal to the 1D MA50.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since late March and below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since April 21. With the 1D Death Cross having been formed (when the 1D MA50 crosses below the 1D MA200), the market seems to be pricing a bottom, rather than preparing for a deeper fall. This is similar to the late September - October 2021 Support formation, which gradually rose above the 1D MA50. As a result, with the 1D MACD also on a Bullish Cross, we are turning bullish on Palladium, aiming at the 1D MA50. Note that the ultimate long-term Support of the 1W MA300 is now above 1600. This is holding since January 03 2017. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XPDUSDLong
by TradingShot
1
PLATINUM Buy opportunity long-termPlatinum (XPTUSD) is trading close to a Support Zone that is holding since the September 2021 Low. It does remain under two Lower Highs trend-lines, the one from the February 16 2021 High and the other from the March 09 2022 High. Technically that is the most optimal buy level for a short-term rebound towards the Internal Lower Highs trend-line and if broken, long-term extension to the Feb 2021 Lower Highs. If on the other hand we break below the 900.00 Support, we will take that minor loss and turn bearish instead towards the 830.00 September 24 2020 Low. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XPTUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
COPPER High probability for a reboundCOPPER (HG1!) has been trading within a Channel Down ever since the March 07 High caused of the Russia - Ukraine war escalation. Right now the price isn't just approaching the Channel's Lower Lows trend-line (bottom) but also the March 04 2021 Low of 3.8500. With the RSI dropping below the oversold 30.00 barrier on the 1D time-frame and making a Double Bottom. the market may soon reverse towards the Channel's top again. The last time we saw all these parameters aligned in the same order was during the May - August 2021 Channel Down, where the price after the RSI Double Bottom on the 30.00 mark, it rebounded above the 0.618 Fibonacci to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel. Our strategy is to initially settle for a short-term target just below the 0.618 Fib extension at 4.3000 and then re-evaluate as a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is most likely needed in order to reverse the trend completely. If on the other hand 3.8100 breaks, we expect a sharp sell-off towards the 3.4500 Low of December 10 2020, where the price can also make contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Trading plan until the end of summer.This Gold (XAUUSD) analysis is on the 4H time-frame where the current consolidation becomes clearer. As you see all three 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) have converged is a similar (almost) Double Bottom fashion as the March 2021 and July 2021 fractals. On all three occasions, the 1D RSI hit the 30.00 oversold level and the price rebounded (attention again, the candle action is on the 4H time-frame while the RSI on the 1D). With the exception of the August 04-06 2021 flash crash on fundamentals, the market hit the 0.5 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels for the July and March fractals respectively. On the August flash crash the price plummeted as low as the -0.382 Fib extension. As a result, we maintain a buy position on Gold throughout the Summer targeting 1920 (just below the 0.5 Fib) and then with the SL moved on profit, pursuing the 2000 mark (just below the 0.786 Fib) in extension. However with a break below the 1787 Support, we will book losses and switch to a sell instead, targeting the -0.382 Fib ext at 1680. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
NATURAL GAS Strong sell towards at least the 1D MA200Natural Gas (NG1!) broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week for the first time since February 11 and upon the first re-test as a Resistance, it got rejected. This indicates strong sell bias on the medium-term. The likely target is the zone within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (green trend-line) or when the 1D RSI turns oversold. With the long-term pattern being a Bullish Megaphone since July 2020, the 1D MA200 was reached on both previous Higher Lows formation. Depending on the news at the time, as long as the pattern holds, the price is then more likely to bounce back up. However NG's multi-month cyclical behavior shows that it is close to the end of the current Cycle. So if the Megaphone breaks to the downside, be ready to invest in a long-term sell. Updates will follow until then. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Still bearish unless the 1D MA50 breaks.A lot of volatility lately on Gold (XAUUSD) with the inflation data weighing on the technically bearish long-term pattern, which as we outlined last week was a Channel Down: As you see, the price got indeed rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line on the current chart, red on the previous analysis), which is just below the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. Naturally, the price is heavily bearish, trending towards the 1789 Support, i.e. the May 16 Low, as it broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Still, there seems to be a strong medium-term Support around the 1D MA200. So best to do is trade upon confirmation, i.e. bearish continuation with a sell trade if the 1778 bottom of the 2021 Support Zone breaks (target the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a Lower Low) and buy if the price closes above the 1D MA50, or even better above the 0.382 Fib (target progressively the higher Fibonacci levels). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL heading to $160 long-termThis is not a new chart I'm sharing with you on WTI Crude Oil today, I've initially posted it 2 months ago, calling for a medium-term consolidation and then bullish break-out when the Resistance breaks, based on the striking similarities with the September 2020 - March 2021 pattern: It is time to update my thesis, as the Resistance broke and the similarities continue to be striking both in candle and RSI terms. The analysis is on the 1W time-frame, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) standing out. On the May 31 2021 1W candle, when the price broke and closed the week above the prior High/ Resistance, Oil eventually reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Currently that Fib level is at 159.00. With the 1W RSI well above its MA, it appears that WTI has enough momentum to break its prior High/ Resistance by July. This is a long-term thesis. I will be making updates on the 1D time-frame for shorter term trades. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
9
XAUUSD Still bearish unless this level breaksGold (XAUUSD) has established a Channel Down pattern since its March 08 peak during the Ukraine - Russia war. Since May 16 it has been forming its new leg to a Lower High but three sessions ago it got rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), cutting the uptrend from a 1D MA50 test (red trend-line) which is the long-term pivot for Gold between a bullish and a bearish trend. Being a barometer, it won't be until Gold breaks the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, that a sustainable bullish reversal can be achieved. Until then, every such rejection, is a sell opportunity towards roughly 1790, which is the top of the 2021 Support Zone. Notice also that the 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 crosses above the 4H MA200) got held up with that 4H MA200 rejection last week and then last time we had such a Golden Cross was on February 11, right at the start of the enormous war rally. As a result if a new 4H Golden Cross is achieved and the Lower Highs break, be ready to buy the break-out with short-term targets the Fibonacci retracement levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD One last dump possible before a 2000 rallyGold (XAUUSD) is consolidating for the 6th straight day after the mid-May rebound. So far the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) is being used as the short-term Support. As long as this holds, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the immediate target. If broken and a 1D candle closes below it, we may see an aggressive correction of the rally towards 1800 - 1785, in the same manner as March 2021, whose fractal the current price action seems to be following. Both sequences bottomed at around -10.50% from their tops, were under Lower Highs with 2021 briefly consolidating on the 4H MA100 before dropping to the previous Low. Notice that in both sequences the initial rebound stopped and got rejected on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. What followed after that in 2021 was an aggressive rally to the 1.236 Fib extension. If we complete the current pattern in the same fashion, then a 1.236 leg would be just above 2040. It might be safer to target the start of this correction just below 2000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
4
XAUUSD Targeting the 4H MA200 short-termGold (XAUUSD) has turned the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support as it broke the Lower Highs trend-line of the April/ May downtrend. As you see this is now the Pivot line and last week it successfully held as Support upon testing. The 4H RSI got rejected exactly on the 70.00 overbought barrier and should turn neutral as the rise will most likely continue in a more sustainable manner. As long as the 4H MA50 pushes the price, the short-term target is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) with our projections showing contact within 1885 - 1890. See also how well the Fibonacci retracement levels have acted as Resistances and provided short-term rejections. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
XAGUSD Maybe temporary bounce unless the 1D MA50 breaks.Silver (XAGUSD) has been on a short-term rise since the May 13 Low. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down since May 18 2021, so practically a whole year of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The recent one, isn't a solid Lower Low however, in fact it resembles the August 09 2021 Low, which despite a short-term rise, it failed exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and got rejected to a Lower Low. It was only when the price later broke above the 1D MA50 that the uptrend was sustained and eventually made a new Lower High. As a result, with the 1D Death Cross imminent (when the 1D MA50 crosses below the 1D MA200), it is best to buy either on the exact bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line of the Channel Down or if the 1D MA50 breaks first. Notice how in the rise to the Lower High, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) also rejected the uptrend twice. Keep those in mind if you engage into long-term trading within this pattern. It is also important to have the 1W RSI Resistance and Support Zones in the equation. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Can scratch 1900 but watch the 1D candle closesGold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since its March 08 top due to the 'fear' mix of war and inflation. On Thursday it broke below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 07 2022 and Friday saw the price touch the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down. Today it marginally broke below it, with the 1D RSI hitting the 30.000 oversold mark but the price is recovering and we should pay close attention to the 1D candle closings. As long as we close inside the Channel Down, it is more likely to see a rebound towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the last Lower High, as seen on the previous rebound within the Channel. If done within May, it may test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance. If however a 1D candle closes below the Lower Lows trend-line, I expect the price to seek the lower Channel Fibonacci extension of -1.00 around 1720 - 1715. Below 1700, the way opens for a 1W MA200 (red trend-line) test, for the first time since December 06 2018. Note that in order for the long-term bullish trend to be restored, Gold has to break the previous Lower High which was marginally below 2000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
1
GASOLINE Buy the dip for the next 2 monthsGasoline (RB1!) has been supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since January 2022 and after the most recent contact with the trend-line (April 07 2022), it has been on a strong rise. This shouldn't surprise us as the 1D RSI has been printing the same pattern as the March - June 2021 period, when Gasoline formed a Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50. This suggests that every dip towards the Support should be bought until at least the end of July. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
4
WTI OIL 1 month of scalping with 12 successful tradesAs mentioned on my last two ideas (April 19 and May 02), WTI Oil has been neutral on the medium-term where scalping was favored: Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame where you can see the range more clearly (Resistance at 116.60 and Support at 93.00). On this post I present the golden combination that offered 100% profitable results during this 1 month of scalping. The 4H MA100 (green trend-line) can be used as the Pivot Line. I've also plotted the Bollinger Bands (blue range). As you see, every time the 4H RSI touched either its Resistance (sell signal) or Support Zone (buy signal), it bounced towards at least the 4H MA100 and in most cases even the top/ bottom of the Bollinger Bands before the next signal emerged. So far this approach has given 100% success rate with 12/12 correct signals. We will continue scalping this until either the Resistance or Support level breaks. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD approaching the 1D MA200. Strong medium-term buy signal.One and a half month ago, I posted the following analysis, making a case of the similarities of the Ukraine - Russia war parabolic rise, with the blow-off top of August 2020: The long-term levels were clearly stated and as you see, Gold's (XAUUSD) price action has followed my projection fairly well. The bullish invalidation level (green trend-line), remains intact, and the longer it does, the more likely it is for Gold to dive lower. However, it has come close to the first important Support level of this correction, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As you see, this happens to be exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up that started after the August 09 2021 Low and broke parabolically with the war in Ukraine. In the late September 2020 fractal, that led to a medium-term rebound to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. That level is a little above 1960 and swing traders can use this as a short-term target. On top of that, the 1D RSI has entered its multi-year Buy Zone. Notice also the lower Fibonacci extensions of the Channel (-0.5 and -1.00). Similar to the 1.5 and 2.0 upper extensions that were hit as the war escalated, those are the lower extensions that may be hit as the war deescalates and Gold loses its value as a safe haven to the USD, which has seen enormous strength lately. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL Scalping medium-term. Check these break-out levels.On my last WTI Oil analysis, I stated that the price action was neutral, which favored scalping: Two weeks later, that still remains the case as we remain within the 117.00 Resistance and 93.10 Support, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) being used as the pivot trend-line. For now, a high return strategy would be scalping the 1D Bollinger Bands (chart on the left). On the longer-term 1W time-frame though (chart on the right), we see that the last 5 months resemble the price action of late 2020/ early 2021. The 1W TSI sequence is fairly similar and the longer we trade sideways on the medium-term the more it favors the consolidation bias of the accumulation scenario of March - April 2021 and then bullish break-out towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. A break below the 'Prior High' level of 85.00 would break both the 1D MA200 and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-lines on both charts) and should target the 66.10 December Low at least. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
2
NATURAL GAS Multi-year Cycles.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been one of the most profitable trading assets of the year offering great returns. On a long-term scale though (1W time-frame on this chart) it has starting to form a peak pattern, which we have seen previously in the past 20 years. I've plotted the Sine Waves on the chart to more efficiently illustrate NG's long-term cycles. Currently it is within a Bull Cycle having formed a Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) last June. However after every 1W Golden Cross since 2000, the market made a Top shortly after. This was disrupted this year due to the Ukraine-Russia war and as a result the price negated the peak of October 2021 and broke outside the Sine Wave. This is not the first time we see that. On the upside this took place in December 2003 - January 2004 and on the downside in June 2015. If 2004 - 2005 is repeated, we should see the price pull-back immediately towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and within this year towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), and then rebound on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows towards the next Sine Wave to form a Top. On the other hand, this is negated if we get 2 straight weekly (1W) candle closings below the 1W MA200 or if the December 2021 low of 3.535 breaks first. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
GOLD on a buy opportunity but watch this invalidation level.On my last Gold (XAUUSD) analysis, I stressed the importance of a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test while the price was at the top of the Channel Up before discussing a new rise. However, the price broke even below the 1D MA50 and is now approaching the 1890 low of March 29. As long as it trades above that level, Gold is a buy especially as the 1D CCI is just above its 1 year Support Zone. A break below 1890 level though, would invalidate the structure that is similar to the late 2021/ early 2022 pattern, so be ready to adjust by either taking the loss and opening a sell on a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target or hedging. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
5
WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance. Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break. A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling. A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario. The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
5