Copper (to break July's high)Experimental probability of breaking 13/07/20 high (2.9756) > 80%
Entries @ discount zones highlighted on chart -high chance price will not retrace :(...
Note: discount zone are invalid if price broke the high.
Commoditysignals
WTI Crude Oil Trading Strategy for this weekWTI Crude oil following the support trendline and dynamic resistance. At present, it's in an uptrend for short-term investors. According to this chart, the last descending triangle pattern is the broken upper side.
Still, we cannot trust this breakout because of excess at the support line. Buy position can initiate at 43 for 43.4 - 44 targets.
If WTI comes below descending resistance or at the red circle area, jump for 42 - 41.6 levels as a target.
Note: keep your eyes open at the uptrend channel.
I have updated a report on Gold on Sunday. Wherein I listed a few events/inventories that can affect to Bullion & Energy sector commodities. You must read that.
OIL Pull back will create a buy opportunityPattern: Triangle on 4H within a Channel Up.
Signal: Sell as long as the Triangle doesn't make a Higher High. Buy the dip afterwards.
Target: 44.50 the dip buy target.
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XAUUSD Break-out Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy only if 1992 breaks as at the moment the 4H MA50 is applying sell pressure.
Target: $2040 (+6.00% extension and Lower High limit).
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XAUUSD How low can it go? $1670 possible?Following yesterday's strong sell-off, it would be useful to see how far Gold can correct to in order to be prepared for the next big buy entry.
This is a highly speculative projection though based on the previous time (early March) that Gold posted such a strong decline.
As you see it was when the MACD on the 1D chart turned bearish. Gold broke the 1D MA50 on March 12 and continued aggressively lower, even broke the 1D MA200 and found relief (and buyers) on the 2 month Support trend-line (green line). The fundamentals played a big part as it was when the U.S. announced strong economic stimulus to save the falling stock markets and the Fed lowered the interest rates twice in a week. The expected inflation made investors rush into Gold heavily.
Right now, the 1D MA50 is holding, in fact the price rebounded exactly on the (dashed black) trend-line that is holding since the March bottom. We can assume that if the MA50 breaks, we may see another crash wave as low as the 1D MA200 and the 2 month Support, which is now at $1670. That would be the most optimal long-term buy entry.
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USOIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up.
Signal: Buy when the price completes the roughly -8.00% decline from the recent top. There is an obvious declining pattern on the pull-backs within the Channel Up.
Target: 44.50 (+2.20% from the most recent High, in accordance to all previous Higher Highs made).
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XAUUSD Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Buy within the 0.382 Fibonacci and -3.80% from the top, (B) Sell if the 4H MA50 breaks (it will be the first time since July 17).
Target: (A) 2120 (Higher High on the Channel below the -0.50 Fib), (B) 1900 (projected contact with the 4H MA200).
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#Silver : Possible bull flag setupWe need to watch the price action on silver
The structue of the flag needs to keep forming and a rsi/stoch reset with a pin bar shakeing out traders at the bottom flag support may be a sign of good entry.
If the flag structure does not appear, or fails then we are looking at 23$-22.5$ again
OIL Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Bearish as long as the 42.50 Resistance holds, (B) Bullish if it breaks.
Target (A) 43.30 (Higher High of the wider Channel Up), (B) 40.50 (just below the 4H MA50 and above the dashed Higher Low trend-line)
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XAUUSD Sell SignalPattern: Channel Down on 1H.
Signal: Sell as the MACD is repeating a previously bearish formation that is associated with a Lower High within the pattern and subsequent drop to a Lower Low.
Target: 1790 (the Support level).
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position vendeuse bois de construction! LUMBERBonjour !
J'ai décidé cette fin de semaine de vous présenter cette analyse très intéressante avec un fort potentiel et une probabilité de gain.
Analyse long terme sur le bois de construction.
* Depuis avril 2020 le prix du bois a grimpé de plus de 50% après son plus bas de mars 2020 à 255$ US. Cette hausse se traduit malgré le covid-19 aux prévision macro concernant les mises en chantier aux usa comme au canada .
Il faut noter que le marché de la construction américain et le niveau de sa demande suit l'évolution des restriction de construction par rapport à l'évolution sanitaire qui sévit aux usa actuellement.
Un deuxième élément qui m'a intéressé sur cette matière première est la baisse de la demande qui est entrain d’emmener structurellement les gros producteurs canadiens et américains à ajuster leurs productions et même à suspendre certaines de leurs activités.
Techniquement: depuis 01 Janvier 1985 le cours du bois a oscillé entre les bornes supérieurs et inférieures du canal haussier représenté par les trendlines vertes .
Il faut noter que la trendline rouge représente la droite marquant l'histoire du bois de construction depuis 1973 .
En 2003 après avoir buté sur la trendline rouge ; les prix sont passés de 213.5$ à 315.2$ soit un bond de prés de 36.15% pour ensuite aller chercher la borne supérieure su canal à 456$ approximativement au même niveau que les sommets de 1999,1996.
De septembre 2015 à Mai 2018 le bois à progressé de près de 188% (209$ plus bas 2001,2003,2009) à (604.4$ plus haut jamais enregistré) cassant même de force la borne supérieure du canal pour après le réintégrer.
A l'heure où je vous partage cette analyse , nous sommes dans une zone fort intéressante dont l'issue pourrait se concrétiser techniquement par une répétition de l'histoire , donc cassure de la trendline suivi d'in pull back et réintégration du canal sinon; on va assister à de nouveaux records(2018 630$).
La première hypothèse est celle que je porte . Selon ichimoku les prix se sont trop éloignés de la kijun et de al tenkan , un scénario de retour vers la tenkan est donc à considérer . Pour le moment la lagging n'a pas encore confirmée son signal de vente car pour le moment aucun obstacle devant elle. j'attends la validation de la lagging après la clôture hebdomadaire de la semaine prochaine. Si cassure après clôture la semaine prochaine la probabilité d'aller tester le sommet de 2018 est forte .
Bon weekend !
XAUUSD Sell SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bearish as the price hit the Higher High trend-line of the Channel Up with the RSI also reaching the Resistance.
Target: 1,780 (near the 4H MA50 and Higher Low trend-line of June 15) and 1,770 in extension (Higher Low trend-line of the Channel Up).
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Platinum powerful buy signalsPlatinum, monthly chart: 11 years long(!) support zone + Triple divergence + Morning Star
XAUUSD Sell SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Bearish as the price has hit the Higher Low trend-line of the pattern.
Target: 1705 (just above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level).
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bullish as a bottoming fractal has been formed after the price bounced near the Higher Lows trend-line since May 27 and the RSI bounced near the Lower Low trend-line of its Channel Down.
Target: 42.00 (just below the Higher High of the Channel Up).
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Previous WTI signal:
S&P500 Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up within a Bearish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: (A) Bullish as long as the 4H MA200 supports, (B) Bearish if the 3,015 Support breaks.
Target: (A) 3140 (the Lower High trend-line of the Bearish Megaphone), (B) 2960 (the Lower Low trend-line of the Bearish Megaphone).
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Most recent S&P500 signal:
XAUUSD Trading planPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: (A) Bearish is the (red) Higher Lows trend-line breaks. Bearish extension below Support 1. (B) Bullish if the 1746 Resistance breaks.
Target: (A) 1695 (Lower Low of the Channel Down), (B) 1760 (just below the Yearly High).
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XAUUSD Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Bearish as long as the price is trading below the Resistance, (B) Bullish if it trades above.
Target: (A) 1695 (above the Symmetrical Support), (B) 1760 (just below the yearly high).
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Previous XAUUSD signal:
XAGUSD Sell SignalPattern: Channel Down on 1D.
Signal: Bearish when the price breaks the 1D MA200. The MACD already made a bearish cross.
Target: 15.800 and 14.500 in extension.
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GOLD Gearing up a long-term move to $2600.This is a simple macro projection using the LMACD on the 1M chart and the MA20 and MA50.
It appears that Gold is reproducing the early 2000s bullish run that led to its All Time Highs of 1900 is 2011. The MA20/MA50 Golden Cross has taken place and those MA periods have never crossed paths again, giving way to a strong 2019/2020 rise.
The LMACD is on the Resistance of the 2004 price fractal. Back then, Gold was supported the whole year on the 1M MA20 but upon contact, never broke. This March (2020) we almost had contact with the MA20. If we have another similar event, it will be the strongest confirmation if an upcoming hyper bullish extension to $2600 (roughly +160% from the 2015 bottom as it happened in 2004 on the 1999 bottom).
Do you agree with this macro idea? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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XAUUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Bullish as the price is close to the Support Zone (green rectangle) of the wider 1D Channel Up marked by the 4H MA200 and the outer Higher Low trend-line.
Target: 1740 initially (Symmetrical Resistance) and 1790 in extension if you want to seek more risk
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Most recent XAUUSD idea:
XAUUSD Sell SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bearish as the pattern was rejected on the Higher High zone of the pattern and is on a potential top formation.
Target: 1720 short-term (just above the Higher Lows) and 1695 medium-term with higher risk if the blue dotted line breaks.
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Most recent XAUUSD signal:
NATURAL GAS Buy SignalPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 1D.
Signal: Bullish as the price bounced off the bullish trend-line. The 1D RSI is on an ascending Channel since February, indication that the bullish trend is getting stronger.
Target: 2.050 (Resistance).
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