Fed minutes signal more rate hikes in 2023The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal they continue to believe ongoing interest rate increases will be appropriate to combat inflation, with the target rate range set at 2%. This raised the risk-aversion mood in the market while strengthening the dollar. USD/CAD added 12 pips to 1.3549, but USD/JPY slid 9 pips to 134.90.
Germany's year-on-year inflation rate in February was 8.7% as Mitrade estimates. EUR/USD then fell 45 pips to 1.0601. GBP/USD dropped 71 pips to 1.2044, and AUD/USD decreased 49 pips to 0.6803.
Spot gold plunged almost $10 to $1,825.29 an ounce, and WTI oil futures declined $2.41 to $73.95 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum closed lower at $24,150.0 and $1,641.40 respectively.
The Nasdaq 100 closed 5 points higher (+0.05%) at 12,066. On the other hand, the S&P 500 lost 6 points (-0.16%) to 3,991 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 84 points (-0.26%) to 33,045.
Commoditytrading
OIL(USoil ) massive sell off incoming 430 PipsWe clearly see a nice daily downward trend and price still respecting the lower high level which is also in confluence with EMA pointing downward, showing still continuation
As we move down to lower timeframe like H4 and H1 we see price breaking structure to downside and current price is testing it as resistance
also it respecting the 50% fib level we could see a fake-out to grab liquidity to downside, so wait for a nice reversal candlestick and bearish volume
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US equity markets post worst performance in 2023As the market awaits the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, recent strong economic data raised Mitradess anticipation for more Fed hawkish measures. The US 10-year Treasury yield then rebounded 13.8 basis points to 3.953%, sending spot gold $6 lower to $1,835.04 an ounce.
Therefore, the US stock market dropped over 2% on Tuesday, the poorest performance year in 2023 so far, with the Nasdaq 100 plunging 297 points (-2.41%) to 12,060. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 697 points (-2.06%) to 33,129, and the S&P 500 lost 81 points (-2.00%) to 3,997.
EUR/USD dropped 36 pips to 1.0646, and AUD/USD fell 53 pips to 0.6852, but GBP/USD rose 77 pips to 1.2115. USD/CAD surged 86 pips to 1.3537, and Canada recorded a 0.3% month-on-month increase in its core inflation levels. USD/JPY added 76 pips to 134.99.
WTI oil futures closed slightly lower at $76.36 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum were last traded lower at $24,316.0 and $1,644.19 respectively.
Extended inflation expected in Canada and EuropeOn Washington's Birthday, US President Joe Biden paid a surprise visit to Kyiv, reiterating his unwavering support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion. From military equipment and economic aid, to further sanctions on Russia, they will likely impact the global economy soon.
The US stock market remains closed. Later today, Mtrade expects inflation readings in Canada, Germany, and the UK to increase, with Canada's Core CPI jumping from -0.3% to 0.2%. USD/CAD then fell 19 pips to 1.3451.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD moved down 12 pips to 1.0682, and GBP/USD traded 3 pips higher to 1.2038. AUD/USD rose 26 pips to 0.6905, and USD/JPY added 7 pips to 134.23.
Spot gold slid $2 to $1,841.36 an ounce, and WTI crude futures saw a minor $0.86 uptick to $77.41 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum climbed steadily to $24,856.0 and $1,706.81 respectively.
US30 Sell setup 500 PipsBased on the H4 timeframe we seeing price action indicating a shift of momentum to downside as we break the H4 high low, currently the price has retraced to 50% fib level in both H4 and H1
This is also in confluence with other indicator like EMA cross over to downside and also supporting the previous support now got reject has resistance
Nice risk to reward
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USOIL Outlook - Bearish Sentiment .USOIL has been in a free-fall since I shorted at 127.00 (POI). Price is now where it broke structure at 77.00. I'm expecting it drop further to my LIQ SWEEP area (where it sweep liquidity to the downside).
My POI (Point Of Interest) is 4.50. I'm looking for BUY at that level.
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Patience is KING!!!
Hawkish Fed backed by resilient economic dataUS Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 194,000 against an estimate of 200,000. Combined with a growing Producer Price Index and relatively hawkish comments from Fed officials, Mitrade now expects more significant rate hikes to combat inflation.
As a result, the greenback strengthened against most of its peers. EUR/USD fell 21 pips to 1.0668, and GBP/USD lost 33 pips to 1.1993. Australia recorded an 11,500 decrease in employment, as AUD/USD lost 27 pips to 0.6876. USD/CAD climbed 64 pips to 1.3456, and USD/JPY slid 17 pips to 133.94.
Spot gold and WTI oil futures suffered minor losses to close at $1,836.49 an ounce and $78.49 a barrel respectively. Bitcoin lost momentum and dropped to $23,753.0, whereas Ethereum was last traded at $1,658.62.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1.26% to 33,696. The S&P 500 declined 57 points to 4,090, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 245 points to 12,442.
XAUUSD: Near a sell entryGold is trading inside a Channel Down on a technically bearish 4H time frame (RSI = 42.428, MACD = -8.260, ADX = 23.790). Every time the price rises near the 4H MA50, it gets rejected, makng it the technical Resistance.
The structure of this Channel Down is as follows: First the price drops by -2.00%, then it rises by +1.00% and repeat. The rise is being carried out by a short term Channel Up. Right now the price is inside such a Channel Up and is approaching the +1.00% rejection point. We are short on this one, targeting another -2.00% decline (TP = 1,812.50).
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Bitcoin rebounded to an eight-month highThe dollar strengthened amidst strong US retail sales data, but cryptocurrencies managed to recover significantly. Bitcoin jumped over 9% to $24,300, the highest level since June 2022. Ethereum also surged over $140 to $1,688.18.
US retail sales recorded a 3.0% growth in January. This outperformed Mitrade's estimates of 1.8%. This allowed USD/CAD to climb 58 pips to 1.3392, and USD/JPY 100 pips higher at 134.11.
Although the UK year-on-year inflation rate slightly slowed to 10.1%, GBP/USD still plunged 144 pips to 1.2026. EUR/USD declined 46 pips to 1.0689, and AUD/USD dropped 82 pips to 0.6903.
Spot gold fell $18.5 to $1,835.97 an ounce. As the US added over 16 million barrels to its crude oil inventories, WTI oil futures traded $0.47 lower at $78.59 a barrel.
The Nasdaq 100 increased 97 points (+0.77%) to 12,687 thanks to a rally among major tech shares. The S&P 500 rose 11 points (+0.28%) to 4,147, and the Dow added 38 points (+0.11%) to 34,128.
NATURAL GAS: Short term buy signal may be emerging.Natural Gas is very bearish on the 1D time frame (RSI = 36.041, MACD = -0.435, ADX = 40.625) with the RSI a few days back even oversold as since the December 15th Triple Top it has been falling non-stop.
That fall was initiated not just because of the Triple Top but also because of the RSI's Lower Highs (LH), which flashed a Bearish Divergence.
The price this month has been ranging sideways within the 2.340 Support and the 2.655 Resistance. Being this time on a Triple Bottom and with the RSI on HL (Higher Lows) we expect a short term rise to start if the price crosses the 4H MA100, which is untouched in 2 months. We will target the 4H MA200 (TP = 3.000).
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XAGUSD: Bearish. Has more space to drop before a rebound.Silver is completely bearish on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 30.745, MACD = -0.501, ADX = 35.018) with the RSI almost oversold. The long term pattern since early 2021 is a Channel Down and the last time inside this pattern the 1D RSI hit 30.000 was on September 1st 2022, which was a market bottom and Lower Low on the Channe Down.
In order to help us get a better understanding if this is a buy zone, we have identified all other times the the 1D RSI broke below 30.000. Those circles as shown on the chart, most of the times have made the price rebound instantly and hit the 1D MA50 but on two occassions, the price dipped significantly more before it rebounded. One was on April 27th 2022, which was a sequence similar to what we experience today as the price was also coming off a Lower High on this multi year Channel Down.
The blue zone that supported the initial peak fall on the 1D MA200 during the June 18th 2021 oversold RSI, didn't do so in April 2022 and XAGUSD fell significantly more to almost reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level, before making the bounce to almost hit the 1D MA50. The 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci Zone (green zone) held in 2021 as well.
Our long term strategy on Silver is based exactly on this. We will buy on the 4H MA200 and will target the 1D MA50 (TP = 22.500) but if the price crosses under the blue zone, we will take the loss and short to the middle of the green zone, where we'll take a short term buy again to the 1D MA50. The risk is low due to the SL placement while the reward is high.
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Market slows after US inflation dataThe latest inflation data from the US mostly met market estimates, with an annual rate of 6.4% slightly higher than expected. The readings were still well above the Federal Reserve's inflation targets, so investors expected more rate hikes in 2023.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD moved up 4 pips to 1.3334, and USD/JPY rose 71 pips to 133.11. GBP/USD climbed 32 pips to 1.2170. Mitrade projected the UK inflation rate to rise by 10.3% year-over-year. EUR/USD added 15 pips to 1.0735, and AUD/USD gained 20 pips to 0.6985.
The stock market closed with mixed results. The Nasdaq 100 increased 88 points (+0.71%) to 12,590. The S&P 500 only slid 1 point (-0.03%) to 4,136, and the Dow lost 156 points (-0.46%) to 34,089.
Spot gold increased $1 at $1,854.47 an ounce, and WTI crude futures declined $1.00 to $79.06 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading higher at $22,126.0 and $1,547.71 respectively.
XAUUSD: 4H Death Cross is triggering a sell off.Gold formed a Death Cross on 4H turning bearish both on 4H (RSI = 38.637, MACD = -8.760, ADX = 19.351) and the 1D time frames (RSI = 40.973, MACD = -1.230, ADX = 37.908). If the February 02 Top is anything like April 2022 top as we brought to you with the following idea, then a break down of the 4H Death Cross of that period and comparison with today's may be indicative of the price action that will follow:
Both Death Cross patterns were formed while the RSI was on HL, a Bullish Divergence with the candles' LL. This indicates that one last rebound to the 4H MA50 will follow with a rejection down to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We are selling with TP = 1,825.
Both falls from the top up to the Low before the Death Cross were exactly the same (-5.25%). The rebound that was rejected on the 4H MA50 on April 29th 2022 dropped another -6.80%, below the 1D MA200. It never broke over the 0.618 Fibonacci or the 4H MA200. If this periods new fall is of the same magnitude as -5.25% was, then the price can drop to even 1,760. But best to settle for a TP = 1,775 (over the 1D MA200) in case the 1.382 Fibonacci is crossed.
The fractal is negated with a bullish trigger above the 4H MA200. In that scenario the bullish trend changes back to long term buy and we will long TP = 1,950.
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Resurging inflation dims Australian consumer sentimentHigh inflation and interest rates have dented Australian consumer sentiment by 6.9%, though the labor market remains tight. Meanwhile, AUD/USD increased 46 pips to 0.6965. Most major currencies also rallied against the greenback, with EUR/USD adding 43 pips to 1.072, and GBP/USD climbing 77 pips to 1.2138.
On the other hand, USD/CAD recorded minor losses to 1.333, and USD/JPY surged 99 pips to 132.40. Bitcoin just slipped to $21,731.0, and Ethereum was last traded at $1,500.31.
Although oil supply from Turkey has partially resumed after the earthquake, WTI oil futures still moved up slightly to $80.14 a barrel. Spot gold dropped $12 to $1,853.45 an ounce.
The Nasdaq 100 rebounded 197 points (+1.60%) to 12,502. The S&P 500 increased 46 points (+1.14%) to 4,137, and the Dow surged 376 points (+1.11%) to 34,245.
Bearish market mood ahead of US CPI dataEven with strong Nonfarm Payrolls readings, lackluster economic data in other areas had investors pessimistic about a soft landing. As for US inflation data, market consensus had the core CPI retain 0.4% month-on-month growth, with the annual CPI growth rate slowing to 6.2%.
Mixed data also led to mixed stock market performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 169 points (+0.50%) to 33,869. The S&P 500 added 8 points (+0.22%) to 4,090, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 76 points (-0.62%) to 12,304.
GBP/USD declined 64 pips to 1.2058. Last Friday, UK GDP recorded a 0.4% year-on-year increase, though the monthly reading contracted by -0.5%, falling below Mitrade's expectations. EUR/USD fell 61 pips to 1.0677, and AUD/USD traded 17 pips lower to 0.6919. USD/CAD plunged 111 pips to 1.3344, and USD/JPY slid 21 pips to 131.41.
Spot gold closed $4 higher at $1,865.93 an ounce, and WTI oil futures moved up to $79.72 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum were last traded at $21,752.0 and $1,511.76 respectively.
Google extends disappointing runBoth Alphabet shares (GOOGL and GOOG) declined by over 4% as a result of the disappointing performance of its AI chatbot Bard. Just as Yahoo announced massive layoff plans, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 114 points (-0.91%) to 12,381. The S&P 500 slipped 36 points (-0.88%) to 4,081, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 249 points (-0.73%) to 33,699.
Germany’s year-on-year inflation rate moved up slightly to 8.7%, as EUR/USD added 27 pips 1.0736. GBP/USD increased 51 pips to 11.2122. Mitrade expects the UK's year-on-year GDP to slow from 1.9% to 0.4%.
AUD/USD traded 11 pips higher to 0.6935. USD/CAD and USD/JPY had minimal gains to 1.3451 and 131.56 respectively.
Spot gold plunged more than $13 to $1,861.74 an ounce, and WTI oil futures slipped $0.39 to $77.06 a barrel. Bitcoin dropped below $22,000 to $21,831.0, and Ethereum lost more than $100 to $1,545.99.
XAUUSD: 4H Death Cross forming. 1D MA50 the Support.Gold failed to stay above the 4H MA200 and is now getting heavily rejected to the 1D MA50, the long term Support that is intact since November 4th. The 1D technicals turned bearish after a very long time (RSI = 42.798, MACD = 4.900, ADX = 31.675).
The pattern is a Channel Down and a 4H Death Cross is about to be formed. If successful and the price closes under the 1D MA50, consider it a strong sell signal and continuation of the Channel Down. TP = 1,830 (Fibonacci 0.382) and if the 1D MA50 is rejected as Resistance, then new sell and TP = 1,790 (above Fibonacci 0.5).
The bullish trigger is a break above the 4H MA50, with TP = 1,940.
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WTI OIL: This uptrend has more fuel.As WTI Oil hit technical neutrality on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 51.471, MACD = -0.510, ADX = 37.488), it reached Pivot1 (P1) and the 4H MA200 to pause and consolidate. As with the previous two rallies, we expect this to have some more fuel left and we are aiming at the 1D MA100 (TP = 80.50) that rejected the last uptrend 3 times.
After that, our sell trigger is a break below P1, and we will aim at the top of S1 (TP = 73.50). We are not waiting for the extension to R1 but rather will wait for the HH to break (bullish trigger) and aim below R2 (TP = 87.00).
P.S. Perfect execution of our last Oil signal:
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Fed Chair speech slows the greenbackEUR/USD 🔽
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that US inflation has been slowing. However, he maintained rate hikes are still needed to bring price levels down further, without any hints at bigger or smaller increases. The mixed bag of information has slowed the US dollar, with EUR/USD trading slightly lower at 1.0723, and GBP/USD moving up 21 pips to 1.2042.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.35%, meeting Mitrade's expectations, as AUD/USD climbed 77 pips to 0.6958. USD/CAD declined 48 pips to 1.3498, and USD/JPY dropped over 150 pips to 131.05.
Spot gold rose more than $6 to $1,873.81 an ounce. WTI oil futures added $3.03 to $77.14 a barrel. Bitcoin recovered above the $23,000 level, currently trading at $23,298. Ethereum increased by $57 to $1,681.97.
A recent showdown between ChatGPT and Google’s Bard fuelled the Nasdaq 100 to surge 263 points (+2.12%) to 12,728. The S&P 500 was 52 points higher (+1.29%) at 4,164, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 265 points (+0.78%) to 34,156.
Earthquake in Turkey disrupts oil supplyEUR/USD 🔽
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A huge earthquake in Turkey and Syria has led to numerous casualties and disrupted the oil supply from the west Asia region. This caused WTI oil futures to climb to $74.11 a barrel. Spot gold also rose to $1,867.71 an ounce. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to weaken to $22,830.0 and $1,624.26 respectively.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is about to announce its Interest Rate Decision, in which Mitrade expects a rate hike of 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the US dollar extended its strong run with AUD/USD dropping 38 pips to 0.6881.
EUR/USD declined 63 pips to 1.073, and GBP/USD slid 35 pips to 1.2021. USD/JPY surged 148 pips to 132.65, and USD/CAD closed 50 pips higher at 1.3446.
The Nasdaq 100 plunged 108 points (-0.87%) to 12,464, while the S&P 500 slipped 25 points (-0.61%) to 4,111. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 34 points (-0.10%) to 33,891.
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The US economy has shown remarkable resilience through robust data, with Nonfarm payrolls readings of 517,000, exceeding Mitrade's expectations of 185,000. As a result, investors are less worried about a recession than continuing rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
The greenback then extended its rally to its peers. USD/CAD added 81 pips to 1.3496, and USD/JPY surged more than 200 pips to 131.17. EUR/USD declined 117 pips to 1.0793, while GBP/USD and AUD/USD plunged over 150 pips to 1.2051 and 0.6919 respectively.
Spot gold took heavy losses after falling to $1,864.93 an ounce, and WTI oil futures also traded lower to $73.39 a barrel. Bitcoin slipped below the $23,000 level and is currently trading at $23,017.0. Ethereum was last trading at $1,634.07.
Despite disappointing earnings results, Apple's (AAPL) share prices still rose above the $150 level to 154.50, though not enough to prevent the Nasdaq 100 from plunging 229 points (-1.79%) to 12,573. The S&P 500 dropped 43 points (-1.04%) to 4,136, and the Dow lost 127 points (-0.38%) to 33,926.