Bearish market mood ahead of US CPI dataEven with strong Nonfarm Payrolls readings, lackluster economic data in other areas had investors pessimistic about a soft landing. As for US inflation data, market consensus had the core CPI retain 0.4% month-on-month growth, with the annual CPI growth rate slowing to 6.2%.
Mixed data also led to mixed stock market performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 169 points (+0.50%) to 33,869. The S&P 500 added 8 points (+0.22%) to 4,090, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 76 points (-0.62%) to 12,304.
GBP/USD declined 64 pips to 1.2058. Last Friday, UK GDP recorded a 0.4% year-on-year increase, though the monthly reading contracted by -0.5%, falling below Mitrade's expectations. EUR/USD fell 61 pips to 1.0677, and AUD/USD traded 17 pips lower to 0.6919. USD/CAD plunged 111 pips to 1.3344, and USD/JPY slid 21 pips to 131.41.
Spot gold closed $4 higher at $1,865.93 an ounce, and WTI oil futures moved up to $79.72 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum were last traded at $21,752.0 and $1,511.76 respectively.
Commoditytrading
Google extends disappointing runBoth Alphabet shares (GOOGL and GOOG) declined by over 4% as a result of the disappointing performance of its AI chatbot Bard. Just as Yahoo announced massive layoff plans, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 114 points (-0.91%) to 12,381. The S&P 500 slipped 36 points (-0.88%) to 4,081, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 249 points (-0.73%) to 33,699.
Germany’s year-on-year inflation rate moved up slightly to 8.7%, as EUR/USD added 27 pips 1.0736. GBP/USD increased 51 pips to 11.2122. Mitrade expects the UK's year-on-year GDP to slow from 1.9% to 0.4%.
AUD/USD traded 11 pips higher to 0.6935. USD/CAD and USD/JPY had minimal gains to 1.3451 and 131.56 respectively.
Spot gold plunged more than $13 to $1,861.74 an ounce, and WTI oil futures slipped $0.39 to $77.06 a barrel. Bitcoin dropped below $22,000 to $21,831.0, and Ethereum lost more than $100 to $1,545.99.
XAUUSD: 4H Death Cross forming. 1D MA50 the Support.Gold failed to stay above the 4H MA200 and is now getting heavily rejected to the 1D MA50, the long term Support that is intact since November 4th. The 1D technicals turned bearish after a very long time (RSI = 42.798, MACD = 4.900, ADX = 31.675).
The pattern is a Channel Down and a 4H Death Cross is about to be formed. If successful and the price closes under the 1D MA50, consider it a strong sell signal and continuation of the Channel Down. TP = 1,830 (Fibonacci 0.382) and if the 1D MA50 is rejected as Resistance, then new sell and TP = 1,790 (above Fibonacci 0.5).
The bullish trigger is a break above the 4H MA50, with TP = 1,940.
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WTI OIL: This uptrend has more fuel.As WTI Oil hit technical neutrality on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 51.471, MACD = -0.510, ADX = 37.488), it reached Pivot1 (P1) and the 4H MA200 to pause and consolidate. As with the previous two rallies, we expect this to have some more fuel left and we are aiming at the 1D MA100 (TP = 80.50) that rejected the last uptrend 3 times.
After that, our sell trigger is a break below P1, and we will aim at the top of S1 (TP = 73.50). We are not waiting for the extension to R1 but rather will wait for the HH to break (bullish trigger) and aim below R2 (TP = 87.00).
P.S. Perfect execution of our last Oil signal:
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Fed Chair speech slows the greenbackEUR/USD 🔽
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that US inflation has been slowing. However, he maintained rate hikes are still needed to bring price levels down further, without any hints at bigger or smaller increases. The mixed bag of information has slowed the US dollar, with EUR/USD trading slightly lower at 1.0723, and GBP/USD moving up 21 pips to 1.2042.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.35%, meeting Mitrade's expectations, as AUD/USD climbed 77 pips to 0.6958. USD/CAD declined 48 pips to 1.3498, and USD/JPY dropped over 150 pips to 131.05.
Spot gold rose more than $6 to $1,873.81 an ounce. WTI oil futures added $3.03 to $77.14 a barrel. Bitcoin recovered above the $23,000 level, currently trading at $23,298. Ethereum increased by $57 to $1,681.97.
A recent showdown between ChatGPT and Google’s Bard fuelled the Nasdaq 100 to surge 263 points (+2.12%) to 12,728. The S&P 500 was 52 points higher (+1.29%) at 4,164, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 265 points (+0.78%) to 34,156.
Earthquake in Turkey disrupts oil supplyEUR/USD 🔽
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A huge earthquake in Turkey and Syria has led to numerous casualties and disrupted the oil supply from the west Asia region. This caused WTI oil futures to climb to $74.11 a barrel. Spot gold also rose to $1,867.71 an ounce. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to weaken to $22,830.0 and $1,624.26 respectively.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is about to announce its Interest Rate Decision, in which Mitrade expects a rate hike of 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the US dollar extended its strong run with AUD/USD dropping 38 pips to 0.6881.
EUR/USD declined 63 pips to 1.073, and GBP/USD slid 35 pips to 1.2021. USD/JPY surged 148 pips to 132.65, and USD/CAD closed 50 pips higher at 1.3446.
The Nasdaq 100 plunged 108 points (-0.87%) to 12,464, while the S&P 500 slipped 25 points (-0.61%) to 4,111. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 34 points (-0.10%) to 33,891.
Nonfarm Payrolls surprise reduce recession fearsEUR/USD 🔽
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The US economy has shown remarkable resilience through robust data, with Nonfarm payrolls readings of 517,000, exceeding Mitrade's expectations of 185,000. As a result, investors are less worried about a recession than continuing rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
The greenback then extended its rally to its peers. USD/CAD added 81 pips to 1.3496, and USD/JPY surged more than 200 pips to 131.17. EUR/USD declined 117 pips to 1.0793, while GBP/USD and AUD/USD plunged over 150 pips to 1.2051 and 0.6919 respectively.
Spot gold took heavy losses after falling to $1,864.93 an ounce, and WTI oil futures also traded lower to $73.39 a barrel. Bitcoin slipped below the $23,000 level and is currently trading at $23,017.0. Ethereum was last trading at $1,634.07.
Despite disappointing earnings results, Apple's (AAPL) share prices still rose above the $150 level to 154.50, though not enough to prevent the Nasdaq 100 from plunging 229 points (-1.79%) to 12,573. The S&P 500 dropped 43 points (-1.04%) to 4,136, and the Dow lost 127 points (-0.38%) to 33,926.
Meta Platforms posts the biggest daily gain since 2020EUR/USD 🔽
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After posting better-than-expected revenue of $32.17 billion, followed by a $40 billion share buyback program, Meta Platforms (META) soared 23.28% - the highest daily gain in over two years. This fueled the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 to jump 440 points (+3.56%) to 12,803.
Meantime, Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) reported slightly disappointing earnings at $117.2 billion and 76.05 billion respectively. The S&P 500 added 60 points (+1.47%) to 4,179, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 39 points (-0.11%) to 34,053.
Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank met Mitrade's estimates with a 50 basis points rate hike, but recent weak economic data weakened EUR/USD to 1.091, dropping 79 pips. GBP/USD and AUD/USD declined over 50 pips to 1.2223 and 0.7076. USD/CAD climbed 28 pips to 1.3315, as USD/JPY decreased 28 pips to 128.65.
Spot gold traded lower at $1,912.57 an ounce, and WTI crude futures suffered minor losses at $75.88 a barrel. Bitcoin retreated to $23,550.0, as Ethereum slowed to $1,650.00.
Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 bps as expectedEUR/USD 🔼
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Earlier today, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, aligning with Mitrade's estimates. The expected slowdown in rate hikes, however, did not spell the end of tightening monetary policies in 2023. Despite acknowledging the disinflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation was far from his target of 2%.
Still, the news cheered market sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 soared 261 points to 12,363. The S&P 500 rose 42 points to 4,119. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had minimal gains and closed at 34,092. Meta Platforms (META) reported revenue of $32.17 billion, higher than projections of $31.53 billion. Its stock price continued to rally, currently at $153.12.
Meanwhile, major currencies have rallied against the greenback, with EUR/USD surging over 120 pips to 1.0989. GBP/USD added more than 50 pips to 1.2376, and AUD/USD rose 80 pips to 0.7135. On the other hand, USD/JPY plunged 110 pips to 128.93, and USD/CAD traded lower at 1.3287.
The US just added 4.140 million barrels to its Crude Oil Inventories, which sent WTI oil futures down to $76.80. Spot gold rose over $20 to $1,950.13 an ounce. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently trading higher at $24,096.0 and $1,685.29 respectively.
Increased inflation slows Australian retail salesEUR/USD 🔽
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After 11 consecutive months of rises, Australian retail sales in December decreased by 3.9% on the month, against Mitrade's estimates of -0.4%. It was likely caused by the unexpected rise in the inflation rate, which in turn sent AUD/USD losing 44 pips to 0.7059.
The greenback strengthened against other major currencies. USD/CAD added 75 pips to 1.3384, and USD/JPY rose 59 pips to 130.44. EUR/USD declined 23 pips to 1.0844, and GBP/USD lost 45 pips to 1.2352.
A stronger dollar pushed spot gold down to $1,923.2 an ounce. Strong global oil supply saw WTI oil futures slow to $77.9 a barrel. Bitcoin is currently trading lower at $22,812.0, and Ethereum slipped to $1,567.12.
All major US indices suffered notable losses yesterday, with the Nasdaq 100 plunging 254 points (-2.09%) to 11,912. The S&P 500 slid 52 points (-1.29%) to 4,017, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 260 points (-0.77%) to 33,717.
US dollar weakens ahead of Fed rate decisionEUR/USD 🔽
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The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, with Mitrade anticipating a 25 basis point increase. The US Dollar Index fell to a nine-month low of 101.56, currently at 101.95.
USD/CAD dropped 11 pips to 1.3309, and USD/JPY traded below the 130.0 level to 129.85, losing 36 pips. On the other hand, EUR/USD lost 22 pips to 1.0867, and GBP/USD declined 10 pips to 1.2397. AUD/USD decreased 11 pips to 0.7103.
Spot gold increased slightly to $1,928.15 an ounce, and WTI oil futures slipped below $80.00 to $79.68 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum rose to $23,659.0 and $1,638.33 respectively.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 115 points (+0.96%) to 12,166, while the S&P 500 added 10 points (+0.25%) to 4,070, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved up 28 points (+0.08%) to 33,978.
US GDP growth exceeds expectations againEUR/USD 🔽
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Earlier today, 2.9% on-quarter growth in US gross domestic product exceeded Mitrade's expectations of 2.6%, increasing hopes for a soft landing to avoid a recession.
Meanwhile, the greenback had a mixed performance against its peers. GBP/USD and AUD/USD traded slightly higher to 1.2406 and 0.7114 respectively, and EUR/USD fell 26 pips to 1.0889. USD/CAD declined 55 pips to 1.332, and USD/JPY added 62 pips to 130.21.
As a result of optimistic market sentiment, spot gold prices dropped over $16 to $1,929.11 an ounce. WTI oil futures moved up to $81.01 a barrel. Bitcoin fell below the $23,000 level, currently at $22,755.0. Ethereum was last traded at $1,567.29.
In the stock market, the Nasdaq surged 236 points (+2.00%) to 12,051, the S&P rose 44 points (+1.10%) to 4,060, and the Dow increased 205 points (+0.61%) to 33,949.
The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 bps as expectedEUR/USD 🔼
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During the Lunar New Year, market anticipation for smaller US rate hikes increased, weakening the greenback against other major currencies. EUR/USD added over 20 pips to 1.0915, and GBP/USD rose to 1.2400. AUD/USD climbed above the 0.7000 level, closing at 0.7106.
Last night, the Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%, meeting Mitrade's estimates. USD/CAD traded higher at 1.3387, but USD/JPY fell more than 60 pips to 129.59.
Spot gold advanced to a nine-month high of $1,946.22 an ounce, and WTI oil futures slightly declined to $80.15 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum just rose to $23,227.0 and $1,628.11 respectively.
The US stock market recorded minor changes yesterday. The Dow added 9 points (+0.03%) to 33,743. The S&P 500 closed just lower at 4,016, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 31 points (-0.27%) to 11,814.
XAUUSD Bullish on a consistent Channel UpGold is trading inside a Channel Up for the whole month of January.
Every impulse rise has been +/- 2.80%. At the moment we are in the middle of the latest impulsive wave.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the spot.
2. Sell if the MA50 4H breaks.
Targets:
1. 1950 (2.80% rise)
2. 1880 (top of the Demand Zone).
Tips:
1. The MA50 4H hasn't been crossed since Dec 29th. This means that Gold is very clear on its current bullish trend but even clearer on what its support is and what will follow when it breaks.
2. The RSI is moving downwards posting Lower Lows. Possible bearish divergence.
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Japanese inflation reaches 41-year highEUR/USD 🔼
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Japanese year-on-year core CPI readings just rose to 4.0%, meeting market estimates, while also reachings levels not seen since 1981. Such a result would likely lead to further tightening from the Bank of Japan, USD/JPY fell 46 pips to 128.42, and USD/JPY declined 45 pips to 128.42.
EUR/USD added 35 pips to 1.083, GBP/USD increased 43 pips to 1.2389, and AUD/USD lost 33 pips to 0.6910.
Spot gold surged to $1,932.24 an ounce, a high since April 2022. WTI oil futures traded slightly higher at $80.61 a barrel. Bitcoin climbed above $21,000 to $21,100.0, and Ethereum rose to $1,553.22.
The US stock market extended losses on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 falling 114 points (-1.00%) to 11,295. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 252 points (-0.76%) to 33,044, and the S&P 500 dropped 30 points (-0.76%) to 3,898.
Weak US data increases recession risksEUR/USD 🔼
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A series of US economic data have pointed to a slowing economy, including a 1.1% drop in retail sales and a 0.7% decrease in month-on-month industrial production. Investors then raised concerns about a recession, with the stock market dipping.
The Dow plunged 613 points (-1.81%) to 33,296, the S&P 500 declined 62 points (-1.56%) to 3,928, and the Nasdaq dropped 146 points (-1.27%) to 11,410.
Both the Eurozone and the UK had their year-on-year inflation readings meet Mitrade's estimates, at 9.2% and 10.5% respectively. EUR/USD added 4 pips to 1.0792, and GBP/USD climbed 58 pips to 1.2346. AUD/USD dropped 34 pips to 0.6941, as Australia recorded a 14,600 drop in employment. USD/CAD increased over 100 pips to 1.3491, and USD/JPY traded 75 pips higher to 128.88.
WTI oil futures slipped below $80, closing at $79.8 a barrel. Spot gold lost over $4 to $1,904.37 an ounce. Bitcoin just declined to $20,698.0, and Ethereum is currently trading lower at $1,516.68.
Correlation – Crude Oil & CPIStudies indicated Crude Oil is the best indicator to track the current inflation.
It is also a leading indicator to inflation numbers? If that is true, we will have to track the crude oil prices very closely.
Content:
i. The most inline commodity with CPI
ii. Can the Crude Oil track CPI?
iii. Direction of Crude Oil
Crude Oil Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.01 = $10
0.10 = $100
1.00 = $1,000
10.00 = $10,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Inflation slows down in Canada and GermanyEUR/USD 🔽
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December’s readings for Canadian and German inflation have slowed, with Germany’s year-on-year inflation decreasing from 10.0% to 8.6%, and Canada’s month-on-month inflation turning negative from 0.1% to -0.3%. Later today, Mitrade expects the UK year-on-year inflation rate to come down from 10.7% to 10.5%.
Slower inflation then makes it more likely for respective central banks to reduce their rate hikes. Meanwhile, EUR/USD closed lower at 1.0788, GBP/USD rose over 90 pips to 1.2288, and AUD/USD climbed more than 30 pips to 0.6987. USD/CAD decreased 19 pips to 1.3388, and USD/JPY dropped 41 pips to 128.13.
WTI oil futures traded slightly higher to $80.45 a barrel, while spot gold retreated to $1,908.62 an ounce. Bitcoin surged past the $21,000 level, currently at $21,250.0.
The Dow plunged 391 points (-1.14%) to 33,910, the S&P slid 8 points (-0.20%) to 3,990, and the Nasdaq added 15 points (+0.14%) to 11,557.
THE BIG XAU SHORT! (part 2)Over last 2 weeks, the market has stopped responding to fundamentals which are showing a stronger labor market than the Fed is willing to tolerate; should have pushed XAU lower.
We're 2 weeks away from the next rate hike (February 1st) and we could see a correction in this time, especially if the market is expecting a less aggressive Fed. In that case, price will likely correct going into the hike and then explode higher on Feb 1-2.
With DXY & Yields moving higher, we're likely going to get this retest of 1900.
*NOTE: either the big short is in play right now or we will get a push higher towards 1960 before it occurs; one thing is for certain - price needs to correct going into Feb 1st rate hike
US dollar recovers against major currenciesEUR/USD 🔽
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After several sluggish sessions, the US dollar recovered against other major currencies. USD/CAD closed 11 pips higher at 1.3407, and USD/JPY increased 66 pips to 128.54. Meanwhile, the US stock market was closed.
EUR/USD and AUD/USD declined over 10 pips to close at 1.0816 and 0.6954 respectively, and GBP/USD lost more than 20 pips to 1.2191. Later today, Mitrade expects the German year-on-year inflation rate to remain at 8.6%.
Spot gold prices retreated to $1,915.36 an ounce, and WTI oil futures traded lower to $78.81 a barrel. Bitcoin fell below the $21,000 level to $20,992.0.