Commoditytrading
Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 bps as expectedEUR/USD 🔼
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Earlier today, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, aligning with Mitrade's estimates. The expected slowdown in rate hikes, however, did not spell the end of tightening monetary policies in 2023. Despite acknowledging the disinflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation was far from his target of 2%.
Still, the news cheered market sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 soared 261 points to 12,363. The S&P 500 rose 42 points to 4,119. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had minimal gains and closed at 34,092. Meta Platforms (META) reported revenue of $32.17 billion, higher than projections of $31.53 billion. Its stock price continued to rally, currently at $153.12.
Meanwhile, major currencies have rallied against the greenback, with EUR/USD surging over 120 pips to 1.0989. GBP/USD added more than 50 pips to 1.2376, and AUD/USD rose 80 pips to 0.7135. On the other hand, USD/JPY plunged 110 pips to 128.93, and USD/CAD traded lower at 1.3287.
The US just added 4.140 million barrels to its Crude Oil Inventories, which sent WTI oil futures down to $76.80. Spot gold rose over $20 to $1,950.13 an ounce. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently trading higher at $24,096.0 and $1,685.29 respectively.
Increased inflation slows Australian retail salesEUR/USD 🔽
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After 11 consecutive months of rises, Australian retail sales in December decreased by 3.9% on the month, against Mitrade's estimates of -0.4%. It was likely caused by the unexpected rise in the inflation rate, which in turn sent AUD/USD losing 44 pips to 0.7059.
The greenback strengthened against other major currencies. USD/CAD added 75 pips to 1.3384, and USD/JPY rose 59 pips to 130.44. EUR/USD declined 23 pips to 1.0844, and GBP/USD lost 45 pips to 1.2352.
A stronger dollar pushed spot gold down to $1,923.2 an ounce. Strong global oil supply saw WTI oil futures slow to $77.9 a barrel. Bitcoin is currently trading lower at $22,812.0, and Ethereum slipped to $1,567.12.
All major US indices suffered notable losses yesterday, with the Nasdaq 100 plunging 254 points (-2.09%) to 11,912. The S&P 500 slid 52 points (-1.29%) to 4,017, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 260 points (-0.77%) to 33,717.
US dollar weakens ahead of Fed rate decisionEUR/USD 🔽
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The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, with Mitrade anticipating a 25 basis point increase. The US Dollar Index fell to a nine-month low of 101.56, currently at 101.95.
USD/CAD dropped 11 pips to 1.3309, and USD/JPY traded below the 130.0 level to 129.85, losing 36 pips. On the other hand, EUR/USD lost 22 pips to 1.0867, and GBP/USD declined 10 pips to 1.2397. AUD/USD decreased 11 pips to 0.7103.
Spot gold increased slightly to $1,928.15 an ounce, and WTI oil futures slipped below $80.00 to $79.68 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum rose to $23,659.0 and $1,638.33 respectively.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 115 points (+0.96%) to 12,166, while the S&P 500 added 10 points (+0.25%) to 4,070, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved up 28 points (+0.08%) to 33,978.
US GDP growth exceeds expectations againEUR/USD 🔽
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Earlier today, 2.9% on-quarter growth in US gross domestic product exceeded Mitrade's expectations of 2.6%, increasing hopes for a soft landing to avoid a recession.
Meanwhile, the greenback had a mixed performance against its peers. GBP/USD and AUD/USD traded slightly higher to 1.2406 and 0.7114 respectively, and EUR/USD fell 26 pips to 1.0889. USD/CAD declined 55 pips to 1.332, and USD/JPY added 62 pips to 130.21.
As a result of optimistic market sentiment, spot gold prices dropped over $16 to $1,929.11 an ounce. WTI oil futures moved up to $81.01 a barrel. Bitcoin fell below the $23,000 level, currently at $22,755.0. Ethereum was last traded at $1,567.29.
In the stock market, the Nasdaq surged 236 points (+2.00%) to 12,051, the S&P rose 44 points (+1.10%) to 4,060, and the Dow increased 205 points (+0.61%) to 33,949.
The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 bps as expectedEUR/USD 🔼
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During the Lunar New Year, market anticipation for smaller US rate hikes increased, weakening the greenback against other major currencies. EUR/USD added over 20 pips to 1.0915, and GBP/USD rose to 1.2400. AUD/USD climbed above the 0.7000 level, closing at 0.7106.
Last night, the Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%, meeting Mitrade's estimates. USD/CAD traded higher at 1.3387, but USD/JPY fell more than 60 pips to 129.59.
Spot gold advanced to a nine-month high of $1,946.22 an ounce, and WTI oil futures slightly declined to $80.15 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum just rose to $23,227.0 and $1,628.11 respectively.
The US stock market recorded minor changes yesterday. The Dow added 9 points (+0.03%) to 33,743. The S&P 500 closed just lower at 4,016, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 31 points (-0.27%) to 11,814.
Long Based off [ 79.10 ] Daily Demand Zone // 3:1 RRTaking Partial Positions off at 3:1 RR. Going to hold through the new Daily Candle. Need a top wick on next daily candle
Cotton prices on the stepping stone?As described here - I see the signs are right for a bullish move in cotton.
XAUUSD Bullish on a consistent Channel UpGold is trading inside a Channel Up for the whole month of January.
Every impulse rise has been +/- 2.80%. At the moment we are in the middle of the latest impulsive wave.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the spot.
2. Sell if the MA50 4H breaks.
Targets:
1. 1950 (2.80% rise)
2. 1880 (top of the Demand Zone).
Tips:
1. The MA50 4H hasn't been crossed since Dec 29th. This means that Gold is very clear on its current bullish trend but even clearer on what its support is and what will follow when it breaks.
2. The RSI is moving downwards posting Lower Lows. Possible bearish divergence.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Japanese inflation reaches 41-year highEUR/USD 🔼
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Japanese year-on-year core CPI readings just rose to 4.0%, meeting market estimates, while also reachings levels not seen since 1981. Such a result would likely lead to further tightening from the Bank of Japan, USD/JPY fell 46 pips to 128.42, and USD/JPY declined 45 pips to 128.42.
EUR/USD added 35 pips to 1.083, GBP/USD increased 43 pips to 1.2389, and AUD/USD lost 33 pips to 0.6910.
Spot gold surged to $1,932.24 an ounce, a high since April 2022. WTI oil futures traded slightly higher at $80.61 a barrel. Bitcoin climbed above $21,000 to $21,100.0, and Ethereum rose to $1,553.22.
The US stock market extended losses on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 falling 114 points (-1.00%) to 11,295. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 252 points (-0.76%) to 33,044, and the S&P 500 dropped 30 points (-0.76%) to 3,898.
Weak US data increases recession risksEUR/USD 🔼
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A series of US economic data have pointed to a slowing economy, including a 1.1% drop in retail sales and a 0.7% decrease in month-on-month industrial production. Investors then raised concerns about a recession, with the stock market dipping.
The Dow plunged 613 points (-1.81%) to 33,296, the S&P 500 declined 62 points (-1.56%) to 3,928, and the Nasdaq dropped 146 points (-1.27%) to 11,410.
Both the Eurozone and the UK had their year-on-year inflation readings meet Mitrade's estimates, at 9.2% and 10.5% respectively. EUR/USD added 4 pips to 1.0792, and GBP/USD climbed 58 pips to 1.2346. AUD/USD dropped 34 pips to 0.6941, as Australia recorded a 14,600 drop in employment. USD/CAD increased over 100 pips to 1.3491, and USD/JPY traded 75 pips higher to 128.88.
WTI oil futures slipped below $80, closing at $79.8 a barrel. Spot gold lost over $4 to $1,904.37 an ounce. Bitcoin just declined to $20,698.0, and Ethereum is currently trading lower at $1,516.68.
Correlation – Crude Oil & CPIStudies indicated Crude Oil is the best indicator to track the current inflation.
It is also a leading indicator to inflation numbers? If that is true, we will have to track the crude oil prices very closely.
Content:
i. The most inline commodity with CPI
ii. Can the Crude Oil track CPI?
iii. Direction of Crude Oil
Crude Oil Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.01 = $10
0.10 = $100
1.00 = $1,000
10.00 = $10,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Inflation slows down in Canada and GermanyEUR/USD 🔽
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December’s readings for Canadian and German inflation have slowed, with Germany’s year-on-year inflation decreasing from 10.0% to 8.6%, and Canada’s month-on-month inflation turning negative from 0.1% to -0.3%. Later today, Mitrade expects the UK year-on-year inflation rate to come down from 10.7% to 10.5%.
Slower inflation then makes it more likely for respective central banks to reduce their rate hikes. Meanwhile, EUR/USD closed lower at 1.0788, GBP/USD rose over 90 pips to 1.2288, and AUD/USD climbed more than 30 pips to 0.6987. USD/CAD decreased 19 pips to 1.3388, and USD/JPY dropped 41 pips to 128.13.
WTI oil futures traded slightly higher to $80.45 a barrel, while spot gold retreated to $1,908.62 an ounce. Bitcoin surged past the $21,000 level, currently at $21,250.0.
The Dow plunged 391 points (-1.14%) to 33,910, the S&P slid 8 points (-0.20%) to 3,990, and the Nasdaq added 15 points (+0.14%) to 11,557.
THE BIG XAU SHORT! (part 2)Over last 2 weeks, the market has stopped responding to fundamentals which are showing a stronger labor market than the Fed is willing to tolerate; should have pushed XAU lower.
We're 2 weeks away from the next rate hike (February 1st) and we could see a correction in this time, especially if the market is expecting a less aggressive Fed. In that case, price will likely correct going into the hike and then explode higher on Feb 1-2.
With DXY & Yields moving higher, we're likely going to get this retest of 1900.
*NOTE: either the big short is in play right now or we will get a push higher towards 1960 before it occurs; one thing is for certain - price needs to correct going into Feb 1st rate hike
US dollar recovers against major currenciesEUR/USD 🔽
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After several sluggish sessions, the US dollar recovered against other major currencies. USD/CAD closed 11 pips higher at 1.3407, and USD/JPY increased 66 pips to 128.54. Meanwhile, the US stock market was closed.
EUR/USD and AUD/USD declined over 10 pips to close at 1.0816 and 0.6954 respectively, and GBP/USD lost more than 20 pips to 1.2191. Later today, Mitrade expects the German year-on-year inflation rate to remain at 8.6%.
Spot gold prices retreated to $1,915.36 an ounce, and WTI oil futures traded lower to $78.81 a barrel. Bitcoin fell below the $21,000 level to $20,992.0.
catching THE BIG GOLD SHORT!Over last 2 weeks, the market has stopped responding to fundamentals which are showing a stronger labor market than the Fed is willing to tolerate; should have pushed XAU lower.
We're 2 weeks away from the next rate hike (February 1st) and we could see a correction in this time, especially if the market is expecting a less aggressive Fed. In that case, price will likely correct going into the hike and then explode higher on Feb 1-2.
XAU is reaching a key monthly lvl by tomorrow (1937) - valid short.
*NOTE: I'm looking to catch a large reversal and 1937 is 1 of 2 scenarios for this potential upcoming move (see chart for more details)
More tightening measures expected from JapanEUR/USD 🔽
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As the Bank of Japan loosened bond yield control last year, Mitrade anticipated further tightening from the central bank, including a possible rate hike on Wednesday. Meanwhile, USD/JPY plunged over 140 pips to 127.88, and USD/CAD increased to 1.3396.
EUR/USD rebounded from 1.0793 to close at 1.0828 with an 18-pip loss. GBP/USD added 26 pips to 1.2226, and AUD/USD traded slightly higher to 0.6976.
Spot gold climbed above the $1,900 level to $1,920.13 an ounce. WTI oil futures rose past $80 to $80.11 a barrel, and Bitcoin continued to rise steadily, last traded at $21,159.0.
Before reopening on Tuesday, the Nasdaq was up 81 points to 11,541. The S&P rose 15 points to 3,999, and the Dow rose 112 points to 34,302.
Slowing US inflation cuts rate hike estimatesEUR/USD 🔼
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The US month-on-month inflation rate turned negative at -0.1% in December, while the year-on-year reading remained at 6.5%. As a result, Mitrade now expects a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in February is more likely.
Less tightening spells good news for the stock market. The Dow increased 216 points (+0.64%) to 34,189, the Nasdaq rose 57 points (+0.50%) to 11,459, while the S&P climbed 13 points (+0.34%) to 3,983.
Major currencies then strengthened against the greenback. EUR/USD surged over 90 pips to 1.0846. GBP/USD and AUD/USD added more than 60 pips to 1.22 and 0.6972 respectively. USD/CAD dipped 62 pips to 1.3362, and USD/JPY lost over 300 pips to a seven-month low at 129.22.
Spot gold climbed to $1,896.91 an ounce, and WTI oil futures advanced slightly to $78.39 a barrel. Bitcoin is currently trading higher at $18,786.0.
Dollar stabilizes ahead of inflation dataEUR/USD 🔼
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Later tonight, Mitrade expects the US year-on-year inflation rate will decrease from 7.1% to 6.5%, giving more leeway for the Federal Reserve to use smaller rate hikes to combat inflation. Meanwhile, the greenback did not show any significant weakness, though EUR/USD steadily climbed to a seven-month high at 1.0755.
GBP/USD had minor losses at 1.2142, and AUD/USD added over 10 pips to 0.6899. While USD/CAD closed slightly lower at 1.3424, USD/JPY rose to 132.47, adding 22 pips.
Spot gold retreated from an eight-month high of $1,885.84 an ounce and closed at $1,875.58. Despite an 18.96 million barrel increase in the US Crude Oil Inventories, WTI oil futures still moved up to $77.41 a barrel. Bitcoin extended its strong run, currently at $18,181.0.
The Nasdaq rose the most, adding 196 points (+1.76%) to 11,402. The S&P surged 50 points (+1.28%) to 3,969, and the Dow rose 268 points (+0.80%) to 33,973.
Australian inflation rebounded in Q4EUR/USD 🔼
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The latest quarterly inflation reading in Australia shows a minor uptick at 7.3%, which Mitrade expects the Reserve Bank of Australia could increase rate hikes. On the other hand, Australian retail sales in November rose from 0.4% to 1.4%. AUD/USD was down over 20 pips to 0.6887.
EUR/USD had minor gains at 1.0734, while GBP/USD declined to 1.2155. Both USD/CAD and USD/JPY increased more than 30 pips to 1.3423 and 132.25 respectively.
WTI oil futures traded slightly higher at $75.12 a barrel. Spot gold climbed to $1,876.97 an ounce, and Bitcoin reached $17,461.0.
The stock market enjoyed modest gains yesterday. The Nasdaq 100 rose 97 points (+0.88%) to 11,205. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 186 points (+0.56%) to 33,704, and the S&P 500 gaining 27 points (+0.70%).
Oil sellers gearing up for a push lower? Are oil sellers gearing up for a push lower?
Hi traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. After yesterday's fade, oil sellers remain in control today. Today's video looks at the last several day's price action with a focus on yesterday's and today's selling.
Was yesterday's fade a warning that we could see a new test lower by sellers? The main trendline remains intact, and we have seen the fast-up trend broken and a new short-term downtrend start to form.
Levels to watch:
Resistance 74.90
Support 73.15 & 71.63
A close below 74.15 could set off a new push lower, but if we see a new higher close above resistance, this could be a warning that seller numbers are not that strong.
Good trading, and happy Tuesday.
EUR/USD reached a 7-month highEUR/USD 🔼
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Major currencies continued their rally against the US dollar. EUR/USD rose to a 7-month high of 1.0759, then closed at 1.0728. GBP/USD added over 80 pips to 1.2183, and AUD/USD has modest gains at 0.6911.
Inflation in Tokyo climbed to 4% in December, the highest level in four decades. Meanwhile, USD/JPY decreased 20 pips to 131.88, and USD/CAD fell 55 pips to 1.3387.
Spot gold gained $5 to $1,871.79 an ounce. WTI oil futures traded slightly higher at $74.63 a barrel. Bitcoin retreated from $17,400, currently at $17,212.0.
Although the Nasdaq 100 climbed 68 points (+0.62%) to 11,108, the S&P 500 only lost 2 points (-0.08%) to 3,892, and the Dow plunged 112 points (-0.34%) to 33,517.
Slowed Nonfarm Payrolls weakened the greenbackEUR/USD 🔼
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After numerous rounds of voting, the US Congress finally elected a speaker. Meanwhile, the Nonfarm Payrolls reading for December was 223,000. The number was slightly higher than Mitrade's estimate of 220,000, but the steady decline in recent months is indicative of a slowed economy.
Thus, investors anticipated that the Federal Reserve would carry out smaller rate hikes, and major currencies rallied against the US dollar. GBP/USD rose 190 pips to 1.2098, as the Euro and Aussie added over 120 pips against the greenback to 1.0644 and 0.6875 respectively. USD/CAD dipped more than 120 pips to 1.3442, and USD/JPY plunged 132 pips to 132.07.
The Nasdaq 100 added 299 points to 11,040. The S&P climbed 86 points to 3,895, and the Dow increased 700 points to 33,630.
Spot gold climbed to $1,865.97 an ounce. U.S. WTI oil futures traded slightly higher at $73.77 a barrel. Bitcoin just rose to $17,190.0.
