Stocks rally despite high US inflationEUR/USD 🔼
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Yesterday, the US Consumer Price Index data released had a 0.4% month-on-month increase and an 8.2% year-on-year increase, both higher than market estimates. Fear sentiment soon faded after an initial plunge in stocks, and a rally followed. All three major indices closed higher, with Dow Jones hitting a week-high at 11,056.
Instead of witnessing a strong greenback upon prospects for more Federal Reserve rate hikes, USD/CAD peaked at 1.3964 yesterday and last traded at 1.375 with minor losses. USD/JPY reached 147.66, a 32-year high, to a closing price of 147.22. AUD/USD recovered from a 2-1/2-year low of 0.6170 and closed at 0.6298 with minor gains.
The British Pound hit great strides as the market expects more U-turns regarding tax cuts mentioned in the proposed “mini-budget”. GBP/USD gained over 220 pips to 1.1329. EUR/USD hit a low of 0.9642, then bounced back to 0.9773. German Consumer Price Index had increased by 10% compared to last year.
Gold price briefly slumped to $1,644 and back to $1,666.26 an ounce. Although crude-oil inventories increased by 9.88 million barrels, against market projections of 1.75 million, WTI oil futures still rose and stabilized at $89.11 a barrel.
Commoditytrading
The Fed is likely to increase interest rates furtherEUR/USD 🔼
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The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve reiterate the general directions for the central bank would be more rate hikes, allowing USD/CAD to close at 1.3814 after considerable oscillations, USD/JPY also reached a 24-year high at 146.91. Later tonight, year-on-year US CPI figures are expected to run hot at 8.1% - though lower than 8.3% last month.
EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9704, recording minimal growth. The market awaits the German CPI tonight, forecasts estimate a steady 10% rise in September. Although the year-on-year UK GDP has contracted from 2.4% to 2.0%, GBP/USD still rose above the 1.110 level and closed at 1.1103.
AUD/USD traded marginally higher at 0.6276. The gold price gradually increased to $1,673.26 an ounce. Struck by recession fears, WTI oil futures fell further to $87.27 a barrel.
The Bank of England to end gilt purchase programEUR/USD 🔼
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Amidst domestic financial turbulences, the Bank of England announced an emergency program to purchase UK government bonds - which will end on Friday. The decision was made public earlier by the central bank’s governor, a sudden spike in the Claimant Count Change readings to 25,500 was also detrimental to the British Pound, which made GBP/USD plunge below the 1.100 level to 1.0963, losing over 100 pips.
EUR/USD first closed at 0.9703 with minor gains, then climbed to a high of 0.9773, currently at 0.9684. The European continent had growing tensions after the Russian retaliation targeted Ukrainian civilians, as a mobilization in Belarus becomes more likely.
Fearing a resurgence of the pandemic in China, AUD/USD closed lower at 0.627, and briefly peaked at 0.6342. A possible stall in oil consumption also sees WTI oil futures gradually declining to $89.35 a barrel. Gold was last traded at $1,666.29 an ounce amidst a volatile session.
USD/CAD fluctuated to 1.3796, though the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released early tomorrow morning, the market doesn’t expect new insights to swat the Federal Reserve’s determined hawkish stance.
GOLD Market updateHi friends, I hope y'all had a fantastic weekend!
Today, we're looking at a possible bullish uptrend to the 2nd Daily Key Lvl and 21 MA. Reason being, the price has reached the previous mini bearish half a bat patterns 3rd level. Usually when the price has reached the level, it forms a reversal pattern to confirm it. So, we're looking at two possible bullish reversal patterns that will likely form. Currently the price wants to form a bullish half a bat. If it bearish bounces off the 3rd Daily Key Lvl or Mini Monthly Neckline with a bullish reversal candle pattern, it will dis-confirm the half a bat pattern, and we'll be looking at a head and shoulder pattern formation that will lead to the bullish uptrend we're anticipating for this week.
That's it for today. I hope y'all found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.
This Week in the Markets (October 3-7)October 3 (Monday)
German Manufacturing PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
October 4 (Tuesday)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
RBA Interest Rate Decision
October 5 (Wednesday)
US JOLTs Job Openings
UK Composite PMI
US ADP Employment Change
October 6 (Thursday)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Australia Trade Balance
UK Construction PMI
Eurozone Retail Sales
Canada Ivey PMI
October 7 (Friday)
US Nonfarm Payrolls
Canada Unemployment Rate
What You Need to Know This Week:
🔸 The RBA Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 2.35%
🔸 Estimates have the Nonfarm Payrolls to add 250,000 jobs into the market.
🔸 No major earnings report this week.
More information on Mitrade website.
Brazil to enter the next round of the presidential electionEUR/USD ▶️
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A fine margin in the results has denied an outright victory in the Brazilian presidential election, both former and current presidents will go head to head in the next round. While the people are divided by their choice of leader, potential unrest lies ahead if the final result sparks controversies.
As an oil producer and commodity exporter, this could further disrupt the global supply chain. WTI oil futures declined to $79.49 a barrel and just surged to $81.67. Despite experiencing considerable fluctuations, recession fears kept gold prices mostly steady at $1,660.98 an ounce.
After rebounding from 0.9744, the Euro then closed to 0.9799 against the US dollar, and GBP/USD went higher to 1.116. Later today, both Germany and the UK will provide their manufacturing PMI readings for September, the market expects the manufacturing sectors would not change in terms of performance.
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to announce its interest rate decision, current estimates anticipated a 50-basis point increase to 2.85%. Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovered from a low of 0.6397 to 0.6402, recording a loss of over 100 pips. USD/CAD closed at a high of 1.3826, and the US manufacturing PMI will be available early tomorrow.
More information on Mitrade website.
US Oil - is the bearish move still valid ? Hey all,
On a montlhy chart, prices are giving a bearish signal with a cross of EMA, on the MACD indicator .
This bearish signal open a wider window for a more important retracement. First target is located at 73$ , flat of monthly Kijun. Then, 70$ with the golden ratio of Fibonacci extension.
On short term the situation is definitely bearish, with prices below the daily cloud .
Let's see how it goes !
USOIL - MONTHLY TIME FRAMEHi there,
#USOIL
The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy
US GDP decline sees stocks closing lowerEUR/USD 🔼
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US GDP readings for the second quarter of 2022 were at -0.6%, aligning with market estimates. On the other hand, Initial Jobless Claims have decreased from 213,000 to 193,000, slightly more optimistic than the original projection of 215,000. A contracting economy has sent US stocks further down, all three major indices fell to over a two-year low, Nasdaq 100 dropped the most to 11,164.78, losing 2.86% in the process.
Despite Canada’s GDP rising by 0.1% over a -0.15% forecast, USD/CAD still managed to close higher at 1.3677, after retreating from 1.3752. German CPI has reached double figures at 10%, and the Eurozone CPI this afternoon is also expected to have a 9.7% spike. But high inflation didn’t stop the Euro from regaining territory lost earlier this week, EUR/USD regained upward momentum after falling from 0.9640, to a closing price of 0.9814.
The British Pound continued to bounce back fiercely after the previous dive, by surging 188 pips to 1.1115. Meanwhile, the Aussie / Dollar pair experienced some oscillation and closed with a modest loss at 0.6499.
A strong dollar and recession fears led to more risk-aversion in the market, and gold prices were little changed at $1,660.61 an ounce, despite dropping to $1,642.0 prior. WTI oil futures went slightly lower to $81.23 a barrel, although oil prices could rise since OPEC is likely to cut production, and civil unrest in Iran made the nuclear deal more difficult to close.
More information on Mitrade website.
Non-US Major currencies recovered after major lossesEUR/USD 🔼
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The decline among major currencies was replaced by a rapid rally yesterday, EUR/USD closed at 0.9734 with a high of 0.9745, and AUD/USD was last traded at 0.6522. As the Bank of England announced a purchase program for long-dated bonds, the British Pound / Dollar pair had the most notable gains. The currency pair bounced back from 1.0557, peaking at 1.0900, and closed at 1.0888.
USD/CAD had lost over 110 pips while slumping to 1.3605. Later tonight, Statistics Canada will provide its GDP data, where investors expected a 0.1% decline. In addition, the US will also update its GDP and Initial Jobless Claims readings this evening.
Commodities also enjoyed a recovery run, gold price rose to $1,662.1 and closed at $1,660.01 an ounce. WTI oil futures went above $80 to $82.15 a barrel, due to a decrease in crude oil inventories by 215,000 barrels.
As the greenback retreats, US stocks and indices reclaimed lost territory. S&P 500 reached a high of 3,734.88, Dow Jones met resistance at 29,800, and Nasdaq 100 was highest at 11,540.98. Apple saw its stock prices fall to 146, currently at 149.84 - due to its decision to hold back production boosts for its latest iPhone 14.
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The Bank of England steps in after pound hits record lowEUR/USD 🔽
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The UK’s “mini-budget“ with numerous tax cuts proved to be disastrous to the British Pound, as the GBP/USD fell to a record low. The currency pair briefly went below 1.0500, closed at 1.0684, and currently recovered to 1.0750. The Bank of England has swiftly responded by closely monitoring the market, and will adjust interest rates to control price levels while its currency weakens.
Other major currencies too suffered from a strong greenback and recession fears, EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9606 with a low of 0.9585, and the Aussie/Dollar pair suffered fewer losses at 0.6454. USD/CAD returned from 1.3797 to 1.3732, gaining 137 pips. The Bank of Japan’s latest intervention did not stop USD/JPY from rising almost 130 pips, which closed at a high of 144.75.
After declining to $1,622.53, gold prices just bounced back from $1,621.81 an ounce. WTI oil futures spiked to $80.00 but slid to a closing price of $76.71 a barrel afterward, citing potential supply disruptions from a brewing hurricane on the US southeastern coast.
In the stock market, the slump in major US indices has slowed down, with Dow Jones losing the most at -1.11% to 29,260. A scheduled return of Chinese tour groups has cheered the entertainment sector, especially resorts and casinos, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd (MLCO) jumped to 7.0696, gaining over 25% in the process.
More information on Mitrade website.
Today's forex news: UK borrowing plans sends the pound tumblingEUR/USD 🔽
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The British government announced its plan in response to the economic challenges, it proposed massive tax cuts and increased borrowing following the 50 bps rate hike last week. GBP/USD then plunged over 400 pips, to a three-decade low of 1.0401, finally recovering to a closing price of 1.0856.
Meanwhile, recession fears have also haunted other non-US major currencies, the Euro / Dollar pair declined further to 0.9600, before closing at 0.969 - a level not seen since 2002. Later this afternoon, the German GDP and Business Climate Index will be available, as the market expects the German GDP growth for the third quarter this year to remain at 0.1%.
AUD/USD fell to 0.6527, losing more than 110 pips in the process. The greenback climbed to 1.3589 against the loonie, currently higher at 1.3613. Risk-off sentiment also suppressed global demand for commodities, gold was traded lower at $1,643.57 an ounce, and WTI crude futures slumped to an eight-month low at $78.74 a barrel.
Fueled by a strong dollar, Both US stocks and crypto markets recorded considerable losses, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the Dow all lost over 4%, and Bitcoin broke through the $19,000 level to $18,935.0.
More information on Mitrade website.
September Commodity Trading at a GlanceSummary of the last September WASDE Report:
***WHEAT***
– U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month
– Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs. The Ukraine production forecast is increased as higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones
***CORN***
– U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol as on reductions to harvested area and yield
– Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ukraine, Canada, and Mozambique more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Serbia. China corn production is raised as abundant rainfall
***RICE***
– U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies. Lowest U.S. rice production since 1993/94
– global outlook is for lower supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade, and lower stocks.
***SOYBEANS***
– US Soybean production is projected down with lower harvested area and yield. Higher cottonseed production.
– Worldwide, Ukraine’s soybean production is raised on higher area. China soybean imports for 2022/23 are lowered. Global soybean ending stocks are down mainly on lower U.S. and China stocks. EU soybean imports are lowered with higher supplies of other oilseeds.
***SUGAR***
– U.S. sugar stocks are reduced as combined lower production and imports are only partially offset by lower use. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced.
***LIVESTOCK***
– Beef production is raised for the second half of the year with higher expected slaughter for the period. Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current strength in demand, but forecasts for 2023 are unchanged.
***COTTON***
– U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks this month.
– The 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption.
The Bank of England raised rates by 50 bps as expectedEUR/USD ▶️
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After the Federal Reserve's decision to increase the interest rate by 75 bps, the expected 50 bps rate hike from the Bank of England seemed tame in comparison. The UK fell on hard times as economic issues and the passing of its long-reigning monarch presented great challenges to the new Prime Minister, and the British Pound declined to 1.1257 against the greenback.
On the other side of the British Channel, the European continent did not fare much better. EUR/USD recorded little change at a closing price of 0.9836, after returning from a high of 0.9900, still staying below parity. AUD/USD was last traded at 0.6643 with minor losses.
In the US, the labor market displayed some signs of improvement, although the latest Initial Jobless Claims reading was at 213,000, it was slightly lower than the market estimates of 218,000. Riding on the waves of Fed rate hikes, USD/CAD fluctuated to 1.3487, but USD/JPY plunged to 142.35, rebounding from a low of 140.61.
Gold futures were particularly volatile yesterday, swinging between $1,695 and $1,665, finally closing at $1,681.1 an ounce. WTI oil futures briefly went to $86.65 a barrel, but eventually traded flat at $83.49.
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GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed breakdown. What is the next step?As it can be clearly observed from the 3H timeframe graph, after breaking out of the ascending channel illustrated on the chart, the price has managed to re-test the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and complete the break+retest pattern.
At the moment, the price is trading within the borders of the rectangular range portrayed on the graph. Considering the strength of the USD and the recent price development of GOLD, we are pretty positive that bearish impulses will continue from here on.
With the Stop Loss above the upper barrier of the consolidation box, we are entering short positions and aiming for the bottom of the ocean.
Market braces for more record-high US and UK rate hikesEUR/USD 🔽
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The dollar renewed its strength against other major currencies, as the Federal Reserve interest rate decision edges closer. The market expects a 75 to 100 bps rate hike, while the Bank of England also had a projected 75 bps interest rate increase - a high in over three decades. Thus, EUR/USD slumped below parity again, closing at 0.997, and GBP/USD to 1.1379.
A mixed bag of housing market data did not deter the dollar train, USD/CAD climbed and slowed, finally reaching a closing price of 1.3362, gaining over 100 pips in the process. The AUD/USD pair recorded a modest loss, due to declining oil and gold prices.
The yellow metal was overshadowed by the prospect of an even stronger US dollar, gold futures went down by $7 to $1,671.1 an ounce. Oil prices went bearish as investors anticipated the US crude oil inventories to increase by 2.1 million barrels, last traded at $83.94 a barrel.
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US Bond yields rising as the market slows downEUR/USD ▶️
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As the US bond yield curve remains inverted, bond yields are fueled by the imminent interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 3.514%, and the 2-year bond yield went higher to 3.934%. Although the stock market did slightly recover from yesterday’s losses, the forex and commodities markets looked quiet otherwise.
Major currencies recorded minor gains against the greenback, EUR/USD closed at 1.0022, GBP/USD added 17 pips to 1.1429, and USD/CAD decreased to 1.3248. The latest meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained their monetary tightening policy to control inflation, and expect further rate hikes ahead, the Aussie / Dollar pair mostly traded flat, with a closing price of 0.6727.
For now, recession fears have canceled out positive signals in the market. Gold futures were little changed at $1,678.2 an ounce, WTI oil futures briefly dipped to $82.15 per barrel before returning to $85.36.
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US stocks plunge further ahead of Fed rate decisionEUR/USD 🔼
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As the market awaits the latest interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve, the stock market returned its gains last Thursday. S&P 500 fell to 3,873.33 with a 0.72% loss, whereas Nasdaq 100 dipped to 11,861.38 and Dow Jones to 30,822.42, a foreboding report from FedEx ultimately sees its stock prices going down by a staggering 21.40% to 161.02.
The Euro / Dollar currency pair ended the week by returning firmly above parity, slowly climbing to 1.0015 with minor gains. GBP/USD slightly decline to 1.1412, recovering from a low of 1.1370. AUD/USD traded higher at 0.672 after considerable fluctuations, as the meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will be available tomorrow.
The inflation data for Canada is also to be released on Tuesday, USD/CAD rose to 1.326 with a high of 1.3307. Gold futures surged to $1,687.1, then closed at $1,683.5 an ounce. Despite the major Chinese city of Chengdu having lifted its lockdown measures, WTI crude futures decreased to $84.76 a barrel.
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Upbeat US economic data increases mega rate hike betsEUR/USD 🔼
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Investors seem to have braced for a 100 bps rate hike from the Federal Reserve, as US retail and labor market data indicated an improving economy. August’s retail sales figures reported a 0.3% increase over the original estimate of 0.2%, while Initial Jobless Claims exceeded expectations by only adding 213,000 to the unemployed population.
Thus, the US stock market and indices are still firmly in the red, with a slowing pace but still downward nonetheless. Nasdaq 100 went below 12,000 to 11,927.49, losing over 1.7%; Dow Jones was last traded at 30,961.82, and S&P 500 slipped to 31,124.68.
The yellow metal took the news especially hard, gold futures plunged and closed at $1,677.3, then stabilized at $1,672 to a two-year low. A tentative deal has prevented a railroad strike, which would increase price levels in the US, and WTI oil futures were cooled to a closing price of $85.1.
EUR/USD closed just next to parity at 0.9999, as the Eurozone CPI has a projected growth of 9.1%, the same as last month. The market anticipated a 0.5% decrease in UK retail sales, while GBP/USD slipped to 1.1463. AUD/USD was on a gradual decline, closing at 0.6702. USD/CAD climbed to 1.3227, currently at 1.3240.
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US Stock market recovers slightly after sell-offEUR/USD ▶️
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Upon the release of the US Producer Price Index, a -0.1% reading met market expectations, while a minor decrease in price levels has allowed some breathing space for the stock market and other major currencies. NASDAQ 100 just recovered 0.84% to 12,134.40, Dow Jones up 0.1% to 31,135.09, and S&P 500 gained 0.34%, currently at 3,946.01. A slowed dollar rally maintained gold futures prices at $1,709.1 an ounce.
The UK Consumer Price Index recorded a growth of 9.9% on year in August, considerably more optimistic than the estimate of 10.2%. As a result, GBP/USD closed at 1.1535 with modest gains. Euro retold its woes as last week - failing to stay above parity, briefly peaking at 1.0022 and slumping back to 0.9977.
Australia’s employment figures were less cheerful, despite less employment and a higher jobless rate, the AUD/USD pair still traded slightly higher to a closing price of 0.6748. USD/JPY fell and stabilized at the 143.0 level to 143.15, and USD/CAD traded flat at 1.3163.
US crude oil inventories added 2.44 million barrels, over market projections of a mere 830,000 barrels, WTI oil futures fluctuated between $86 and $90 a barrel, finally closing at $88.48.
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US Inflation missed the target, gold and stocks are downEUR/USD 🔽
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Rate hike expectations were heightened once again - as the US CPI readings revealed an 8.3% year-on-year increase in August instead of 8.1%, while month-on-month was up by 0.1% against a -0.1% estimate. The market then feared the Federal Reserve will resort to even more aggressive rate hikes to control inflation, in the range of 75-100 bps.
As a result, the stock market and all three major US stock indices recorded significant losses, and gold futures also followed. After taking a nosedive, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 are currently at 12,033.62, 31,104.97, and 4,037.12 respectively. Gold futures were last traded at $1,708.7 an ounce, suppressed by a greenback with renewed strength.
Meanwhile, other major currencies suffered heavily as well, EUR/USD fell sharply back under parity to 0.997. The interest rate decision from the Bank of England was postponed to next week due to the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, and GBP/USD also dropped to 1.1491. The AUD/USD pair closed at 0.673, losing over 150 pips in the process.
On the flip side, USD/CAD enjoyed a rally to 1.3167, and USD/JPY is edging back to the 24-year high, with a closing price of 144.55. Undecided between increasing demands and inventory projections, WTI crude futures mostly traded flat at $87.57 a barrel.
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