Commoditytrading
Hawkish Fed message extends greenback rallyEUR/USD 🔽
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Last week, despite possible economic ramifications, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated the central bank’s priority to control inflation. As such, the US dollar continued its dominance over other currencies. USD/CAD rose to 1.3033, just reached 1.3065; USD/JPY added 100 pips to 137.52, then climbed to a month-high of 138.53.
Parity once again eluded the Euro, EUR/USD declined from 1.0064 to 0.9961. Fueled by energy security fears, some European Central Bank members also agreed with Chairman Powell’s comments to bring further rate hikes.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD fell to 1.1747, currently at 1.1668. The AUD/USD pair met resistance at the 0.700 level and returned to 0.689, Australian retail sales figures in July were at 1.3%, considerably more optimistic than the 0.3% forecast.
Gold futures prices were held back by a strong dollar, closing at $1,749.8 an ounce and dropping over $20. Investors are still speculating about the possible outcomes of the Iranian nuclear deal and the OPEC+ meeting in September, WTI crude futures mostly traded flat at $93.06 a barrel. Bitcoin dived below the key level of $20,000 to a closing price of $19,771.8.
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CRUDEOIL SEPTEMBER, 2022 LEVELSCrudeOil is currently in a range and giving volatile moves either sides based on market sentiments!
Important Levels to long and short have been marked with targets on either side! Longer TF is currently neutral and a breach of either side marked levels will trigger fresh move of 300-400 points!
Greenback slows down for next Fed rate decisionEUR/USD 🔼
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US and Germany have recorded minor contractions in their respective economies at 0.6 and 0.1% respectively, with optimistic projections expecting growth to reappear in the short term. The greenback retreated slightly against other major currencies, EUR/USD slightly moved up to 0.9974, and the British Pound closed at 1.1829 with minor gains.
The Chinese government has promised more stimulus packages to boost its economy, sending AUD/USD to 0.698 with minor oscillations. Although the US bond yield curve is still inverted, investors anticipated another rate hike from the Federal Reserve in September, USD/CAD then closed at 1.2924 and recovered to 1.2953.
Gold futures took up the role of an inflation hedge, increasing to $1,778.2 an ounce, only to fall to $1,771.4 afterward. As the final draft of the nuclear deal is ready, awaiting Iran’s confirmation, the possible daily injection of 1 million barrels of crude oil into the market once again saw WTI oil futures dropping to 92.52 and stabilizing at 93.00.
Later today, the US Core PCE Price Index and a speech from the Fed’s Chairman Jay Powell could prove to be insightful, but they are unlikely to confirm market bets of a 50 or 75 bps rate hike next month.
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Euro remained below parity against the greenbackEUR/USD ▶️
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Despite several attempts, the Euro met resistance and remained below parity, trading flat at 0.9965. Later today, the German and US Gross Domestic Product data will be available.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD fell to 1.1797 with fluctuations. China’s latest stimulus package didn’t do much to cheer the Aussie, AUD/USD dropped to 0.6906, and just climbed to 0.6941.
Recession fears kept underpinning the greenback, and to a lesser extent - gold. After retreating from 1.3018, USD/CAD closed lower at 1.2965, gold futures slowly ascended to $1,761.5 an ounce.
Without any breakthroughs in the Iranian Nuclear deal, oil supply stagnated and was spooked by possible cuts from Saudi Arabia. WTI oil futures seesawed from a low of $92.92 a barrel to recover at $94.89, the latest Crude Oil Inventories have decreased by over 3.2 million barrels, much high than market projections.
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Crude Oil is once again probing its 200-day maCrude Oil is probing key resistance - a close above which is likely to suggest another leg higher.
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Profit-taking halts the dollar's advanceEUR/USD 🔽
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A surge in dollar values throughout the first half of the day was followed by a decline against most of the dollar's key competitors. This was caused by unfavorable US statistics, such as the US Services S&P Global PMI dropping to 44.1. Manufacturing contracted at a slower pace than expected from 52.2 to 51.3.
S&P Global PMIs for the majority of the main economies, however, showed sluggish economic growth and even recession, demonstrating it is a global problem. Prior to Wall Street's close, the dollar made some gains as risk-off flows persisted. In the midst of extreme overbought circumstances, the dollar's slide appears corrective. Investors were able to record some profits thanks to tepid US data, but a trend reversal is not evident.
Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB Executive Board, gave a bleak picture. He stated that when the likelihood of a recession rises, the central bank may need to further modify its monetary policies. In the meantime, speculative interest is gradually but steadily rising on a 75 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in September.
The GBP/USD exchange rate is at 1.1830, while the AUD/USD rate is around 0.6920. The USD/CAD pair dropped significantly throughout the day, closing at 1.2950.
Safe-haven currencies saw gains against the dollar, with the USD/CHF rate circling at 0.9640 and the USD/JPY rate trading at 136.77.
The price of gold is currently up for the day at $1,7477 per troy ounce, while the price of crude oil has continued its recent rise amid market speculation that OPEC+ may reduce production. Currently, WTI is $93.60 per barrel.
Asia's macroeconomic calendar will stay empty, with Wednesday's US Durable Goods Orders report taking center stage.
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Euro broke parity yet again against the greenbackEUR/USD 🔽
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The strong run from the US dollar has sent the Euro below parity once again, after a sharp drop to 0.9941. Russia also announced another natural gas supply cut in the coming weeks, aggravating the European energy woes. Later tonight, the Purchasing Managers Index for the Eurozone, Germany, and the UK will be available to update the situation in the manufacturing sector.
Although the Iranian nuclear deal is yet to be finalized, Saudi Arabia already warned to reduce oil production in the face of falling prices and a possible increase in supply. As a result, WTI oil futures recovered from a low of $86.44 a barrel, then closed at $90.36 at the same level.
Greenback's dominance has overshadowed its peers, GBP/USD declined to 1.1765, and USD/CAD rose above the 1.3000 level to 1.3057. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD experienced minor oscillations but mostly traded flat at 0.6875.
Gold prices remained under fire, losing over $15 to 1,748.4 an ounce.
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Interim Bulls could not halt the strong bearish XAUUSDGold against Dollar have been in a bearish trend way from Aug 15th, 2022 from the price of 1800 and last week its continues the downward trend and breaks the 1750 zone of concern ,
1750 is the zone of PUSHING DOWN, whenever the price breaks 1750 , it never missed to touch the support zone of 1683, this zone tested multiple times
This week , price may test the zone of 1750 again going down, there is a support available at 1735 , if it breaks further down , it will test down 1700 again
GOLD Aug W.4: Long-term trend alert!Hi friends, I hope y'all had a fantastic weekend, and are ready to tackle this week strong ;)
Today, we're looking at a possible long-term drop on this baby. These trades are derived from both the weekly and monthly. Starting with the monthly, the price is in the huge double tops 2nd leg formation that is bouncing off the bullish crossed short-term moving averages with a bearish shooting start candle pattern, triggering what I call a "Double Top A-E.1 signal".
The weekly, on the other hand, is currently bearish running in the double tops L2 and below the 50 moving average and bearish crossed short-term moving averages (8 and 21), triggering what I call a "Double Top A-E.1 signal", but it hasn't fully confirmed. Let us take a look at how this signal and its trades will trigger, and how it won't fully confirm our bias.
Bulls: -If the price bullish rallies to break and retest the 2nd Weekly Key Lvl and 8 m.a, that will dis-confirm both the weekly and monthly signals, and the price would be in prep to form a bullish reversal pattern that will be followed by a bullish trend.
Bears: -If the price bullish spikes or retests the Weekly Neckline 3 or 2nd Weekly Key Lvl and 8 m.a with a bearish candle pattern or reversal candle pattern formation/close (1st trade signal) that leads the price to bearish break and retest the Mini Daily Half a Bat Neckline (2nd trade signal), that will confirm our bias and the price will drop for this timeframes double top L3 and the monthly's double top accumulation phase.
That's it for today. I hope you found value in this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know you thoughts!
Stay Blessed.
Market split bets on the next Fed rate hikeEUR/USD 🔽
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There is a month between now and the next US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the investors are undecided about how high it would be. Given the falling gas prices, strong labor market, and the looming recession, the US central bank could favor a 50 bps rate hike. On the other hand, the latest comments from Fed officials maintained they are adamant about controlling inflation to 2%, hinting at another 75 bps rate hike.
As a result, the greenback extends its strong run against its peers. EUR/USD slid to 1.0034, and despite having slightly optimistic retail sales readings, GBP/USD stabilized at 1.1820 and closed at 1.1827. The Aussie was held back by a sluggish Chinese economy, AUD/USD went below 0.7000 to 0.6872, while USD/CAD climbed to 1.2993 and edged towards 1.3000.
With another rate hike marked on the calendar, gold’s safe haven status was overshadowed by the US dollar, gold futures declined to $1,762.9 an ounce. Oil prices were stuck between prospects of Iranian oil entering the market and a possible recession, which ended up closing at $90.44 with little change.
In US stocks, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) enjoyed a rapid rise that reached meme status, but it just lost 40.54% of its market cap, after a major shareholder sold his entire stake.
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Double-digit inflation for the UKEUR/USD ▶️
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As the Governor of the Bank of England warned months prior, the UK CPI has recorded a 10.1 increase, compared to the market estimate of 9.8%. Such a high reading is not seen for four decades, and the British central bank is likely to bring more rate hikes to tame the raging inflation, possibly slowing the economy in the process. As a result, GBP/USD declined and stabilized at 1.2047.
Though the Fed meeting minutes are fairly dovish, the subsequent lower CPI data continues to increase bets for another 50 or 75 bps bump in the interest rate. The greenback rallied against its peers, USD/CAD rose to 1.2909, moving further toward the 1.3000 level.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD was little changed at 1.018, Eurozone CPI for July will be announced this afternoon. The Aussie suffered from falling iron prices and slid to a closing price of 0.6932, as the latest employment change results showed more than 400,000 people in Australia are no longer employed in a supposedly compact labor market.
Gold futures broke through 1,780 to 1,776.7 with minor fluctuations, extending its weakened run. US Crude Oil Inventories were reduced by over 7 million barrels, and a tightened supply moved WTI oil futures slightly higher to $88.11 a barrel, after meeting resistance at $88.00.
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Slowing Chinese economy sends US dollar higherEUR/USD 🔽
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Yesterday, the latest Chinese Industrial Production readings recorded a 3.8% growth - falling short of the 4.6% forecast, and raised concerns of a possible recession. On the same day, the Chinese central bank lowered its interest rate from 3.70% to 2.75%, in order to stimulate the economy while dealing with the pandemic.
As such, a weakened global demand saw WTI oil futures fall to $89.41 a barrel. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand is increased with growing recession signs, the US dollar gained much momentum, USD/CAD rose and stabilized at 1.2904, gaining over 100 pips.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has released its meeting minutes this morning, expecting to raise rates even further to “normalize monetary conditions over the months ahead”. The Aussie almost dropped a full 1% against the greenback, declining and slowing at 0.7020, to a closing price of 0.7022.
Euro and Pound both suffered noticeable losses, EUR/USD slid to 1.016, and the GBP/USD pair closed at 1.2054. Gold futures went below the $1,800 level to $1,798.1 an ounce.
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Has Gold a found a stopping point?Welcome to Monday’s market update. The focus of today’s update video is on Gold. We are currently watching the selling that continues to develop today after buyers failed to carry on with Friday’s rally.
Buyers made a good attempt at clearing supply on Friday, but today’s has seen a reversal after USD strength and selling pressure came back into the market. In today’s video, we break down levels we are watching at a possible new level of resistance that has started to present.
We are asking if buyers are out of juice and if these points could become a new short-term turning point, or could buyers come back into the market and make a new push at breaking supply and the new resistance level?
Thanks for stopping by and watching our latest update. We hope you are all enjoying your Monday.
Good trading.
Market continues betting on another US 50 bps rate hikeEUR/USD 🔽
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A tight labor market and slowed inflation have increased market anticipation for another 50 bps interest rate increase from the US Federal Reserve, thus strengthening the greenback against its peers. EUR/USD declined and stabilized at 1.0260, finally closing at 1.0258. GBP/USD fell to 1.213, with forecasts of lower Average Earnings on Tuesday.
The latest meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will be available tomorrow morning, given the gradual economic recovery in China and Australia being less impacted by inflation, the Aussie was slightly cheered to 0.7121 with minor gains. The USD/CAD pair was relatively stable at 1.2773.
WTI oil futures went further down to $92.09 a barrel, as investors received reports from Iran about a possible thawing of diplomatic relations, while Saudi Arabia’s leading oil producer is ready to boost production.
Gold prices reached $1,815.5 an ounce, thanks to a strong dollar. Bitcoin just surged over $600 to $24,822.8.
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Getting reading for the next bull-run in CORNFinally, I've started scaling in on corn again. It's planned to be a thing of several weeks/months. Then let it go. By the time we're reaching the "scale out" point marked on the chart, the prices should be relatively higher than now. How high? I don't know. But it could be really high.
Gold / U.S. Dollar - 2 Scenarios (NEW)If the price breaks down the support level, we expect that the price will decrease in the long term. Bollinger Bands indicates that it is almost time to sell.
On the other hand, if the price breaks the resistance level, we expect that the price will increase. Then it will test another resistance levels.
Market participants are alert ahead of US inflation statisticsEUR/USD 🔽
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On a weekly basis, the American dollar continued to lose ground throughout the early part of the day, but gained some ground during the US session. The volatility of the market was rather low, despite persistent US inflation figures.
According to the US Consumer Pricing Index, investors are expecting that the price pressures started to ease in July. However, the core annual reading is expected to increase from 5.9% to 6.1%. In the end, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be priced into the market rapidly by speculative interest. The Chinese and German inflation data will be released prior to the US inflation data.
The EUR/USD pair came close to touching the 1.0250 level but lost about 50 pip before the closure. The news that Russia has stopped shipping oil through the southern Druzhba pipeline due to problems with transit payments weighed on the common currency.
The UK government is preparing for organized electricity outages for businesses and homes this winter as a worst-case scenario due to the energy crisis plaguing Europe. Prior to the start of Asian trading, GBP/USD is trading at about 1.2060.
By day's conclusion, commodity-linked currencies had depreciated against the dollar, though losses are small. While USD/CAD is centered at 1.2890, AUD/USD trades around 0.6950.
One of the top performers was gold, which reached an intraday high of $1,800.49 per troy ounce. It was $1,795 at day's end. Although the day started with higher crude oil prices, it ended with only slight increases. The price of WTI is $90.70 per barrel.
Following in the footsteps of its European counterparts, Wall Street dipped, albeit losses were restrained. On the other side, the 10-year note's yield, which is currently 2.79%, increased a fraction.
#market #AUD #GBP #USD #DOLLARS #CAD #INVESTING #INVESTMENT #MITRADE #TRADING #PRICING #INDEX #INFLATION
Wednesday’s Inflation data to determine Fed rate hike policyEUR/USD 🔼
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Without any major economic data announced just yet, the market slows down as it awaits the latest US CPI data. The strong labor market gave a confidence boost to the Federal Reserve, if US inflation managed to decline to 8.7% as expected, the string of mega rate hikes is likely to continue.
On the other hand, the greenback slightly retreats against its peers, EUR/USD and GBP/USD closed at 1.0195 and 1.2076 respectively with minor gains. The Australian currency was cheered by increasing Chinese export figures, AUD/USD rose and met resistance at 0.700, finally closing at 0.6988.
USD/CAD slid and stabilized at the 1.2860 level, last traded at 1.2854. Recession fears once again send gold futures surging, adding over $10 to $1,805.2 an ounce.
Mixed sentiment stalled WTI oil futures, reaching $90.76 a barrel after recovering from $89.45.
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Strong nonfarm payrolls send greenback flyingEUR/USD 🔽
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US nonfarm payrolls in July added 528,000 jobs, shattering the original estimate of 290,000 and reaching a five-month high. The strong employment readings seemingly dispelled recession fears, and would likely extend the string of aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
The surprise boost for the greenback sent its peers to a sharp decline, GBP/USD recovered from 1.2025 to a closing price of 1.2071. EUR/USD closed lower at 1.0181, despite optimistic industrial production data from Germany and France. Mixed Chinese economic data didn’t stop the Aussie from falling to 0.6909 against the US dollar.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair gained over 210 pips to 134.97 as the notable performer, and USD/CAD rose to a high of 1.2977 then stabilized and closed at 1.293. Gold futures were also spooked to $1,781, then rebounded to 1,791.2 an ounce.
WTI oil futures experienced minor fluctuations, mostly traded flat at $89.01 a barrel.
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Oil futures return to pre-war levelsEUR/USD 🔼
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Months of almost unstoppable oil bulls have returned to the starting line, and both Brent and WTI oil futures prices have returned to levels not seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with WTI oil futures closing at $88.54 a barrel. Recession fears have weakened manufacturing data, and as the US summer driving season will end by September, lackluster global oil demand sends prices downward.
The loonie was dragged by the falling oil prices, USD/CAD got to 1.2864 and kept climbing, currently trading at 1.2875. New American and Canadian employment data will be available tonight, forecasts set the US unemployment to remain at 3.6%, while the benchmark nonfarm payrolls in July added 290,000 jobs - dropping from 372,000 in June.
As another central bank that has announced a 50 bps rate hike, the Bank of England also aligned with market estimates. Although the decision was the most aggressive since 1995, the central bank claims further actions are required to address the soaring inflation. The GBP/USD pair briefly went below 1.2070, but soon recovered to a closing price of 1.2157 with minor gains. AUD/USD rose above the fluctuations, gaining over 20 pips to 0.6968.
After slowing at the 1.0250 level, EUR/USD was last traded at 1.0243. Gold futures reached a monthly high at $1,806.9 an ounce.
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Surprise data strengthens the greenback and weakens oil pricesEUR/USD ▶️
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Yesterday's US economic data indicated an increase in industrial production and crude oil inventories, cheering the greenback while sending WTI oil futures to slide from $96.23 to $90.66 and stabilize. The addition of 4.467 million barrels of crude oil and OPEC slightly boosting production have relieved oil prices to a six-month low.
Oil bears have also sent the loonie on a downwards trajectory, USD/CAD closed at 1.2838 with a high of 1.2883. Later tonight, the US Initial Jobless Claims readings will update the US labor market later tonight. Meanwhile, economic data in Europe slightly missed market estimates, after rebounding from 1.0127, EUR/USD reached a closing price of 1.0169 with negligible gains.
The Bank of England is likely to announce another rate hike, market bets mostly spread between 25 and 50 bps, noticeably lower than those of the Federal Reserve. The British Pound last traded at 1.2143 against the US dollar, and the AUD/USD increased slowly to 0.6943.
Gold futures experienced some oscillations, and rose to $1,776.4 an ounce.
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