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Fed rate hike fears trigger US stock sell-off EUR/USD ⬇️ GBP/USD ⬇️ AUD/USD ⬇️ USD/CAD ⬆️ XAU ⬇️ WTI ➡️ Since inflation does not seem to have peaked just yet, investors expect a mega rate hike of 75 basis points from the Federal Reserve on Thursday, which could bring the US economy to a recession. As a result, major US indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 have all declined. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield kept breaking the record high since 2008, currently at 3.385%. Major currencies remained bearish, the Euro and Aussie dropped to near month-low, EUR/USD closed at 1.0408 and AUD/USD at 0.6923. With its GDP data underperforming in all variations, GBP/USD went further to a near 3-month low at 1.2134. Later today (14 June), the UK Office for National Statistics will provide labor market related data such as claimant count change and unemployment rate. Regarding the interest rate decision in the UK, forecasts have projected a 25 basis point increase from the Bank of England. The USD/CAD pair rose and stabilized at 1.290 level, before closing at 1.2897 - a near month-high. A series of US retail sales data will be released tomorrow, the market anticipated an accelerated growth in core retail goods, and general sales to slow down due to soaring oil prices. Crude oil mostly traded flat yesterday to a closing price of 120.93, but today saw a rebound from below 118 to over 121 a barrel. Gold futures were at 1,831.8, edging towards a near month-low of 1,820. More market information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
UK to announce GDP figures todayEUR/USD ⬇️ GBP/USD ⬇️ AUD/USD ⬇️ USD/CAD ⬆️ XAU ⬆️ WTI ⬇️ Major currencies retreated over the weekend, alternating between sharp falls and trading flat. EUR/USD slowed at 1.0520, closed at 1.0515 and currently trading at 1.0482. Tomorrow (14 June), the Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices will provide insight into European inflation. The British Pound followed the Euro by dropping to a closing price of 1.2314, now at 1.2271. Later today in the afternoon, the UK Office for National Statistics will provide a series of GDP and Manufacturing Production figures, with employment data to follow afterwards. Meanwhile in the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) announcement on Tuesday is expected to increase from 0.5% to 0.8%, a further divergence to the core PPI forecast, indicating soaring energy prices to be the primary source of inflation. USD/CAD closed at 1.2781, and kept climbing to 1.2814. With new cases in Beijing faltering hopes of reopening, the Aussie was weakened against the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair declined to close at 0.7051, and just went further down to 0.7006. Gold futures were at 1,875.5 last week, the rally ended after meeting resistance at 1,880 level, eventually returning to 1,864. Crude oil experienced wild fluctuations from a closing price of 120.67, now bouncing between 116 and 119 a barrel. United States 10-Year Bond Yield ascended to 3.200%, a high since 2008. More information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
ECB raises key rate by 25 basis points in JulyEUR/USD ⬇️ GBP/USD ⬇️ AUD/USD ⬇️ USD/CAD ⬆️ XAU ⬇️ WTI ⬇️ The European Central Bank (ECB) finally relents, and prepares to increase the key interest rate by 25 basis points in July, while other interest rate categories remain unchanged. In its statement, the ECB claims “conditions have been satisfied” for a rate hike and net asset purchases will cease as means to tighten the monetary policy. In response to this update, EUR/USD dipped from 1.0760, stabilized at 1.0620 with a closing price of 1.0614. While the ECB decision is less aggressive than the Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia, the ECB is expected to raise the key interest rate again in September. Greenback also rallied against other major currencies, GBP/USD dipped from 1.2552 to 1.249. New lockdown measures were imposed in Shanghai and Beijing to meet China’s zero-case policy target, both Australian currency and economy were dampened, AUD/USD declined to 0.7097, after trading flat at 0.7095. USD/CAD climbed and plateaued at 1.270 level to close at 1.2696, as Canada’s Net Change in Employment is expected to have a 30,000 increase - a double over last month’s growth of 15,200. A strong dollar and higher US treasury yields have gold futures prices subdued, spot gold briefly fell to 1,842 per ounce but quickly recovered to 1,852.8. The downsizing of several US refineries did not deter the oil bulls, crude oil went down to 121.51 a barrel, now on its way back to 120. Later tonight (10 June), forecasts have projected a 0.5% increase in US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), and general CPI going even higher with oil prices soaring. More market information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
ECB rate hike, Norwegian strike spikes oil pricesEUR/USD ⬆️ GBP/USD ⬇️ AUD/USD ⬇️ USD/CAD ⬆️ USD/JPY ⬆️ XAU ⬆️ WTI ⬆️ Yesterday (8 June), Eurozone GDP recorded a modest increase in both yearly (5.4%) and quarterly terms (0.3%), beating market expectations. The good news has made the European Central Bank more likely to raise interest rates tomorrow (10 June), which sits at 0%. EUR/USD retreated from 1.0750, stabilized and closed at 1.0714. The GBP/USD pair experienced minor fluctuations to close at 1.2539 with a loss, possibly soured by the 56.4 reading from the UK Construction PMI, unable to meet the forecast of 56.6. AUD/USD had a closing price at 0.7192, unable to be lifted by the recovering Chinese economy. Meanwhile in Canada, the Purchasing Managers Index had improved from 66.3 to 72.0, and investors anticipated a notable 30,000 rise in employment, but the greenback proved to be stronger - USD/CAD rebounded from 1.2521 to 1.2557. The US dollar rally extended to the Japanese yen as well, USD/JPY sprung to a 20-year high at 134.24. As gold futures briefly went past 1,860.0 to 1,856.5, crude oil climbed from 119 to 122 a barrel, to a near 3-month high of 122.11. Even though US Crude Oil Inventories defied a negative outlook and increased by 2.025 million barrels, news of China easing lockdowns and Norwegian oil workers planning for a strike this weekend have increased demand and tightened supply. A collection of critical economic indicators will be released tomorrow, in the form of US consumer price index (CPI), most predicted an upswing in general CPI and core CPI going the other way, implying that surging oil prices are the primary driving factors for inflation. More details on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
Has Silver started a new leg lower? Hello, TradingView community. We hope you’re all having a solid session so far. Silver's daily chart has caught our attention today as price formed a solid move lower yesterday, and sellers have broken the low in today’s session. This could be a confirmation that the recovery trend has started to fail. On top of the price pattern, the MA is pointing lower, and the CCI is in its bearish zone. We want to see price close below yesterday’s low and test/break the May 19th low to give this idea more credit. If we sellers can hold momentum and break 21.27, this could show strong seller momentum, and if other factors back up the momentum, we could even see a new move back to the 20.60 area. But, we are looking for sellers to close below yesterday’s low to give yesterday’s move further confirmation. The same pattern can also be seen on gold’s daily chart. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDShort
by Eightcap
USOUSD Oil, continuation higher watch.Good morning/good afternoon TradingView community. Today's video idea is focused on oil as we saw a solid reversal yesterday sellers did their best to get a new leg lower going. Buyers not only stopped the run but put in a solid reversal bar that finished above the 50% point of the previous lower bar. This action has us thinking, could this be the start of a new trend continuation? We are watching to see if buyers can break yesterday's high. A break could be the starting point of confirmation of this idea. The MA and CCi both support further buying, but we really want to see yesterday's high beaten to show that buyers retain momentum. Please check out our video for more detail on our trade idea. Good trading. We hope everyone has a great weekend.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Eightcap
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed multi-timeframe chart breakdown Let's take a look at the chart of GOLD on different timeframes and make a detailed chart analysis of it! As it can be noticed from the WEEKLY timeframe perspective, the price has nicely rejected the zone of previous resistance later turned support that lines up with the ascending trend-line illustrated on the chart. This means that the price has successfully retested the area of the previous Higher High and is now on its way to form a new Higher Low. Zooming into the DAILY timeframe chart, we can see that the area of $1918 serves as a crucial zone of resistance, which means the price is most likely to visit that particular zone in the short-run. Lastly, the H8 chart show us that the price is currently at the doors of the Previous Lower Low and it has printed some nice bullish reversal candlestick patterns. Thus, if the price manages to break above the local zone of resistance and re-test it, we can expect for the price to keep rising till the area illustrated on the graph.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Investroy
11
Sugar and FCOJ Take the Bullish BatonThe soft commodities sector of the commodity market can be highly volatile. Historically, sugar, coffee, cotton, cocoa, and frozen concentrated orange juice futures that trade on the Intercontinental Exchange have doubled, tripled, and halved in value over short periods. While clothing and other consumer goods depend on the cotton market, the other sector members are foods. The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022 Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022 FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high Sugar could be next for three reasons Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips Brazil is the world’s leading producer and exporter of three of the soft commodities; sugar, coffee, and oranges. Sugar comes from two sources, sugar beets and sugarcane. Brazil’s tropical climate makes it the leading sugarcane producer. Arabica coffee beans are popular in the US and other areas, while Robusta beans produce espresso coffees. Brazil leads the world in Arabica production. While many people associate orange production with Florida and California, Brazil is the world’s top orange producer. Cocoa, the primary ingredient in chocolate confectionery products, comes mainly from West Africa, as the Ivory Coast and Ghana produce over 60% of the world’s annual supplies. Soft commodities are agricultural products, so the weather in growing areas typically determines the prices each year. Since the 2020 pandemic, the price action has been anything but ordinary. The two latest soft commodities to lead the sector on the upside have been sugar and FCOJ futures. The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022 In 2021, the composite of the five soft commodities that trade in the futures markets on the Intercontinental Exchange rose 31.57%. In Q1 2022, the softs added to gains, rising 6.58%, with all five members posting gains. Cotton futures led the softs higher with a 20.51% gain. Cocoa futures moved 5.16% to the upside, with FCOJ posting a 3.86% gain. Sugar rallied 3.23%, and Arabica coffee futures eked out a 0.13% gain. Meanwhile, coffee and cotton rose to new multi-year highs during the first three months of 2022. Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022 In June 2020, coffee futures made a higher low under the $1 per pound level before taking off on the upside. The weekly chart shows the bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs that took coffee futures to $2.6045 per pound in early February 2022. Coffee futures rose to the highest price since 2011. Cotton futures also rose to the highest level since 2011, peaking at the $1.4614 per pound level in April 2022. Coffee futures were over the $2.20 level, with cotton above $1.40 on April 14. FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high Frozen concentrated orange juice futures are the least liquid of the five soft commodities, based on daily volume and open interest metrics. While the FCOJ futures arena rose to a new multi-year high in Q1 2022, the bullish price action continued in April with higher highs. The chart shows that nearby FCOJ futures rose to $1.8660 per pound last week, the highest level since March 2017. The all-time high in the orange juice market came in 2016 at $2.35 per pound. Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of oranges and Arabica coffee beans. The South American country also is the leader in free-market sugarcane production and exports. Sugar could be next for three reasons Sugar futures rose to 20.69 cents per pound in November 2021, the highest price since February 2017. The weekly chart shows that sugar futures were above the 20 cents per pound level last week. Sugar is approaching the first technical resistance level at the November 2021 20.69 cents high. Above there, the next target is at the October 2016 23.90 high, which is a technical gateway to the 2011 36.08 cents per pound peak. Three factors support sugar prices in April 2022: Rising inflation is lifting all commodity prices, and the trend is always your best friend in markets across all asset classes. Rising crude oil and natural gas prices support sugar. Crude oil is over the $100 per barrel level, and natural gas stopped just short of $7 per MMBtu last week. Multi-year highs in the energy market support sugar as it is the primary input in Brazilian ethanol production. As more sugarcane goes into ethanol production, less is available for exports. Sugarcane production costs are increasing as they are labor-intensive. The rising Brazilian real makes sugar more expensive to produce. The chart illustrates the technical breakout to the upside in the Brazilian currency against the US dollar. A higher real increases the cost of production, putting upside pressure on sugar’s price. Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips Stocks and bonds have been shaky in 2022, and cryptocurrencies have not yet of the slump that took prices lower since the November 2021 highs. Commodities have been the place to be for investors and traders over the first four months of 2022. The latest inflation report will likely keep the bullish party in raw material markets going. I remain bullish on soft commodities as they are highly volatile and can offer explosive returns. Sugar is my top choice as of April 15, as the sweet commodity loosed poised to eclipse the 2021 high on its way to higher ground. Meanwhile, I favor all soft commodities in the current environment. The optimal approach to the sector has been buying on price weakness, and I expect that to continue. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and corrections can be the best route to optimizing returns over the coming weeks and months. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
12
Crude Oil Idea Nr_one (WTI)Hello Traders This is my opinion on Crude Oil. The price is at strong resistance: - Trendline --> Dec./ Jan. Highs & Jan.- Mar. Lows - 78.6 Fib --> Mar. Rally - Resistance --> 1 & 4 April Lows - 50 Day EMA @ 99.29 - Descending Triangle on Price and TDI (RSI) The price will probably push back from strong resistance I mentioned, between ~98 & ~99 and move lower till the 50% Fib. support at 95.90 and the triangle support + the March low at 93.50. A break through will give the price more downside Momentum till the support levels below: - Oct. / Nov. highs @ ~85 - 161.8 Fib. Retracement --> March Rally - Very Strong Support between ~ 75 & ~77 --> 78.6 Fib. Retracement from March highs + Oct. '18 & Jul. '21 highs + 2022 Open Long-term I think the price will go higher again up to the 2008 high @ ~150 maybe more.
TVC:USOIL
by FiXTUX
2
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed market outlook and MTF analysisAfter tapping into the zone of all-time high last week, the price of gold has been rapidly dropping ever since. From the DAILY timeframe chart, it can be witnessed that the previous DAILY candlestick has left a huge wick to the downside and closed in the favour of buyers. Yet, the current DAILY candle looks super bearish. It had been forecasted that the price is probably making a correctional move and visiting the area of $2000 before continuing its bullish movements. However, the price closed below that level of previous support and formed some sort of a Head&Shoulders pattern. At the moment, the price is sitting on the $1960 zone of support, and it can be inferred that quite a few nice bearish candles have been printed, which indicates a possible continuation to the downside. If the price manages to break below this area of demand, we can observe a further drop till the next zone of crucial support, which is $1915.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Investroy
12
GOLD (XAU/USD): the beast will most likely keep growingAs it can be noticed from the chart, the price has been on a bullish run for quite some time. A nice uptrending curve illustrated on the graph serves as a powerful line of support. Moreover, the price is currently sitting on a zone of previous resistance now turned support. Therefore, we are waiting for a nice bottom to be formed before we can open long positions and aim for the zone of ATH. If the price manages to break below the zone of local support, the idea will become invalid. Happy trading, family!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Investroy
7