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Commoditytrading

Oil Next BullRun ?? Hey Guys, This is a very similar setup to my Silver trade were they're showing signs of recovery and possible reversal to continue larger trends. Oil has now re-entered the channel it has been in since March and showing great strength busting past the 150 day MA with the trend line. on the on the smaller time frame it has broken out of its Bull Flag pattern so that means more upside to come. It has burnt off a lot of excess in the RSI giving it room to make a big push to my target at $83.75 target where it should take a breather on that resistance line. There is Still a downward trend line to beat for the move to confirm so possibly wait for that but I'm pretty convinced it will break. 3% risk to 15% reward With the warrants I'm buying its a: profit 30% loss 6%
OLong
by jackwheeler
Coffee Can Become Cheaper - Reaching Reversal FCP ZoneTraders, Coffee like other commodities has been on a huge run this year. But now it has reached a point of pause, correction and possibly reversal too. So coffee futures can fall down from the FCP zone. Wait for a confirmation as the market has been trending hard upwards. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by vikinsa
4
BITCOIN (BTC), quick update. When are we launching to Mercury?Hey, family! Quick update on Bitcoin. Nothing much has changed since our last analysis on Monday as the price is still consolidating around a possible entry zone. The chart analysis pretty much says it all about why our bias is bullish on this pair. Multiple technical confluences are being lined up perfectly: the formation of Higher Highs and Higher Lows, an ascending zone connecting the dips of the price and so forth. We are pretty positive about the setup and we will be opening long positions once the time is right and our target will be set at the ATH. Trade safe and with patience, dear community members! All the best, Investroy Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Investroy
30
GOLD (XAU/USD), detailed breakdown and next stepsTO begin with, the sentiment of the market is pretty bullish. After a massive drop last week, the price has formed a valid bottom and is now charging up for further bullish movements. During the market opening this week, a massive candle spike broke the sideways moving range to the downside, grabbed some liquidity, and then returned back into the range. We are patiently waiting for the market to give us some more confirmations before we open BUY positions and and aim for the target identified on the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Investroy
42
Substitution Spreads Can Identify ValueMarket structure is the various puzzle pieces that can reveal valuable clues about the path of least resistance of prices. Fundamental analysis involves pouring through supply and demand data to forecast price direction. However, market structure can simplify the process as each jigsaw puzzle piece will complete an emerging picture. Market structure reflects price relationships that develop over time. Each commodity has idiosyncratic supply and demand characteristics. Price differentials in intra or intercommodity spreads can assist market participants in arriving at high-odds directional forecasts. Substitution spreads are another part of market structure The platinum versus gold spread- Financial substitution leads to value assumptions Oil, coal, and natural gas- Energy substitutes can reveal clues Think outside the box when analyzing a commodity- It’s all about choices Over the past weeks, we have looked at how processing spreads provide clues about the supply and demand side of a commodity’s fundamental equation. We looked at term structure, backwardation, and contango and how price differentials for one delivery date versus another are real-time indicators of deficit or glut conditions. Location spreads shed light on the price of a commodity in one region versus another, while quality spreads tell us how different compositions or sizes can influence prices compared to benchmarks and put upward or downward pressure on futures prices. Those spreads are all intra-commodity spreads. This week, we will investigate how inter-commodity spreads play a role in price direction. Substitution spreads reflect the price of one commodity versus another when they can serve the same or similar purposes when prices dictate. Substitution spreads are another part of market structure Markets reflect the crowd’s wisdom. Crowds tend to be wise consumers; they search for value and the best deal. When the price of a commodity rises to a level where a substitute makes more economic sense, many consumers will alter their buying behavior. Think of a trip to the supermarket. When shoppers plan to make a juicy steak for dinner and find out that a pork chop is a far better economic choice, they often choose pork over beef. I like to call the live cattle versus lean hog futures spread the what’s for dinner spread, and it is an inter-commodity, substitution spread. The quarterly chart of the price of live cattle futures divided by lean hogs shows that while the spread has an upward bias, the long-term average or pivot point is around the 1.40:1 level or 1.4 pounds of pork value in each pound of beef value. When the spread is above 1.4:1, pork is a wiser economic choice for consumers; when below the mean, beef is the optimal choice. While the spread can diverge from the midpoint, it has tended to revert to the norm since the turn of this century. The chart of the June 2022 live cattle lean hog spread shows the relationship is right around the long-term average, indicating that beef and hog prices are at a long-term “fair value” level. The beef versus pork spread is an inter-commodity barometer for consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the corn-soybean inter-commodity spread can serve as a guide for producer behavior. The chart of the price of nearby soybean futures divided by corn futures shows that the pivot point dating back to the late 1960s is around the 2.4 bushels of corn value for each bushel of soybean value. Farmers are business people who work each crop year to create the optimal return on their acreage. Many can plant either corn or beans on their land. They grow the crop that offers the best return. When the corn-bean ratio spread is above 2.4:1, soybeans tend to provide the best financial result; when below the pivot point, corn is the more profitable choice. The corn-bean relationship is most useful when looking at new crop futures before and at the beginning of the annual planting season. The chart of the price of new crop November 2022 soybean futures divided by new crop December 2022 corn futures illustrates at below 2.26:1, on November 12, 2021, farmers are more likely to plant corn than beans as the coarse grain is more expensive and offers a better historic return than the oilseed. The meat and grain inter-commodity spreads are guides. Many other factors could influence the levels, which are additional variables in the calculus of analyzing commodity prices. For example, a pork shortage in China because of disease could lift pork prices, or an outbreak that impacts cattle could do the same to beef. Since corn is the primary input in producing US ethanol, the shift in US energy policy could shift the corn-bean spread for fundamental reasons. However, these types of spreads that measure current price relationships versus historical means can be a helpful tool that may validate other assumptions. The platinum versus gold spread- Financial substitution leads to value assumptions In the world of precious metals, platinum and gold have far different supply and demand characteristics, but the two precious metals share some similarities. Platinum and gold have industrial applications, while they also have financial properties as means of exchange and stores of wealth for investors. It is a challenge to label the price of any commodity cheap or expensive because the current market price is always the correct price as it is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent market, the exchange. However, comparing the price of gold to platinum allows us to use the terms cheap and expensive on a historical basis. The chart of the nearby platinum futures price minus the nearby gold futures price dating back to the early 1970s shows that from 1974 through 2014, platinum mostly traded at a premium to gold. While the spread has been as high as over a $1,000 premium for platinum to as low as a $1,000 discount to gold over the period, over the past 47 years, platinum has traded at a premium to gold nearly 85% of the time. It has only been over the recent seven years, since 2014, that platinum has been lower than the yellow metal. Many factors can explain platinum’s weakness versus gold, but on a historical basis, platinum is historically inexpensive compared to its precious yellow cousin. At a $780 discount for platinum compared to gold, some investors have been stockpiling platinum because the inter-commodity spreads reflect compelling historical value for the metal. Oil, coal, and natural gas- Energy substitutes can reveal clues Energy prices can be highly volatile. While the world moves to address climate change by reducing the production and consumption of fossil fuels in favor of alternative renewable energy sources, hydrocarbons continue to power the world. When it comes to electricity production, power generation can come from many different sources. The world may be moving towards solar, wind, hydroelectric, and nuclear generations, but oil, gas, and coal continue to be significant energy sources. Coal has been a four-letter word for many years, and many mining companies abandoned coal mining. The recent surge in oil and gas prices caused an almost perfect bullish storm in the coal market. Low supply levels and rising demand pushed prices to record highs in October. The chart of thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, shows the rise to a high of $280 per ton in October 2021, surpassing the 2008 $224 previous high. The spike higher in coal was a function of rising oil and gas prices, which is the essence of the inter-commodity spread within the fossil fuel sector. Crude oil and natural gas are highly volatile commodities. There is always the potential for substitution when prices diverge from historical means. The quarterly chart of the price of nearby NYMEX crude oil futures divided by the price of nearby NYMEX natural gas futures shows that the average of the high and the low since 1990, when natural gas futures began trading, is around the 20-25:1 of the natural gas price measured against the crude oil price. Below that band, natural gas tends to be historically expensive, while above the average level, crude oil becomes historically expensive compared to gas. The daily chart of the relationship in the December futures contracts shows below the 17:1 level; natural gas is cheaper than oil based on the historical relationship over more than three decades. Think outside the box when analyzing a commodity- It’s all about choices Inter-commodity or substitutions spreads create a basis for comparison. Many other factors can explain deviations from historical norms but understanding and comparing the current levels to history is a valuable tool that can lead to a more robust level of analysis. On their own, substitution spreads are insufficient to make conclusive trading or investing decisions as deviations can last for years or even decades, moving pivot points higher or lower. However, used in conjunction with processing spreads, term structure, location, and quality spreads, they are another puzzle piece that can reveal and validate assumptions about the path of least resistance for a commodity’s price. I will be off next week but will return on Monday, November 29, with the final piece in this series and the final piece of the puzzle, the power of the crowd. --- Sign up for our Monday Night Call using the link below. You can also sign up to receive these articles early using the other link provided below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
2
Are Commodity Prices Going Up? Lumber, Cash Crops, And Iron OreSome interesting factors are currently affecting commodity prices. Supply chain bottlenecks, unpredictable demand from economies reopening, geo-political tensions, climate change policies are just a few examples. I find it helpful to review the state of the commodities market periodically. In this article, we will examine Lumber, Cash Crops, and Iron Ore. Commodity prices: Lumber Lumber Mills have done their best to increase timber supply in 2021, with production hitting a 13-year high to meet the unpredicted demand from new house builds and renovations. After reaching a peak of over US $1,600 per thousand board feet in May this year, Chicago Lumber Futures have retraced to US ~$640 per thousand board feet as of early November. It could be said that the psychological level of US $600 is very supportive of this commodity. November 2021, and January and March 2022 Future prices are also trading above this level. Speculation is rife that Lumber is due for another price run-up, with Sawmills cutting production to counter the gluttonous output earlier in the year. One indicator supporting this theory is Chicago Lumber Futures increasing by just-under ~40% since plateauing in August, at one point hitting US $820 in mid-October. Commodity prices: Cash Crops Corn and many other grain Futures are currently trading at premiums or multi-year highs, including Wheat and Oats. As of writing, Corn, Wheat, and Oats are trading at 555 USd/Bu, 781 USd/Bu, 716 USd/Bu, respectively. Several factors have led to inflation in grain prices. For one, we can thank (or curse) the high cost of crude oil. Due to WTI and Brent trading US ~$80 per barrel, demand for ethanol has been pushed to the extreme. It is important to note, that in the US, Ethanol is produced predominantly by fermenting Corn (25% of the Corn grown in the US is used for ethanol production). Kluis Commodity Advisors does not believe the prices of grains is sustainable, even in the short term. The Advisors go so far as to suggest that farmers should be hitting the sell button right now to make the most of the grain rally. Butting up against this prediction are forecasts for a continuation of unfavourably dry weather, which have already put the supply of Cash Crops, including Wheat and Oats, in a precarious position. Commodity prices: Iron Ore From mid-September until the end of October, Iron Ore appeared to have found a safe space above US $100. Now, after a steep decline beginning October 27, 2021, Iron Ore has started to test May 2020 lows, close to US $90 per metric tonne. The commodity is grating against predictions by ANZ Bank (ASX: ANZ) for it to “find a floor around current levels”. Demand (or lack thereof) from China is what has driven the price of Iron Ore sub-100 dollars. Chinese authorities have ordered its steel manufacturers (large consumers of Iron Ore) to cut production to meet targets to reduce energy consumption and pollution across its provinces. China’s production restrictions are scheduled to last until mid-March 2022. According to S&P Global, Iron Ore outlook is unfavourable, with “pricing risk is to the downside” as supply tends to increase in the latter half of the year.
L
by BlackBull_Markets
Commodity prices: Iron OreFrom mid-September until the end of October, Iron Ore appeared to have found a safe space above US $100. Now, after a steep decline beginning October 27, 2021, Iron Ore has started to test May 2020 lows, close to US $90 per metric tonne. The commodity is grating against predictions by ANZ Bank (ASX: ANZ) for it to “find a floor around current levels”. Demand (or lack thereof) from China is what has driven the price of Iron Ore sub-100 dollars. Chinese authorities have ordered its steel manufacturers (large consumers of Iron Ore) to cut production to meet targets to reduce energy consumption and pollution across its provinces. China’s production restrictions are scheduled to last until mid-March 2022. According to S&P Global, Iron Ore outlook is unfavourable, with “pricing risk is to the downside” as supply tends to increase in the latter half of the year.
COMEX:TIO1!
by BlackBull_Markets
GOLD, detailed breakdown and next stepsThe price is currently located at the lower boundary of the uprising range. We will closely monitor the price action and open positions for GOLD after enough confirmations have been provided. If the price manages to break the lower boundary of the channel and re-test the broken structure, we will be looking forward to opening SELL positions and aiming for the area identified on the chart. On the other hand, if the price forms a nice bottom and prints powerful bullish candles, we will be opening long positions and aiming for the $1830 zone of crucial resistance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Investroy
24
Silver Expected to Breakout Towards 24.75Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. The commodity Silver appears to have broken above 23.20 resistance from an ascending triangle setup. The support trend line was made with the higher lows of 21.50 and 22.35. Expectations are for Silver to head higher towards 24.75. Indicative stop loss is set around 22.15. Technical Indicators Silver is currently trading above its short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. There has been positive crossovers on the respective MAs, indicating a bullish trend move. The RSI is also currently above 50 with the KST in a positive mode. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 22.15 and a target of 24.75. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.31. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. I currently have a position in Silver.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ceddy86
GOLD, detailed breakdown and next targetThe sentiment of the GOLD market is clearly bullish. As we can observe from the graph, after series of long and dull consolidations, a massive candle was able to break the upper boundary of the sideways moving range last week. The price dropped again right after, in order to correct the massive bull candle and re-test the area of the broken resistance. Now, as we can see from the chart, the price is currently testing a zone of previous resistance turned support on lower timeframes, which also aligns with the golden fibonacci ratio. We are now waiting for the price to carefully retrace this zone and form a nice mini-bottom, before we open long positions and aim for the previous Higher High. Happy trading, family!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Investroy
24
When Might The Price Of Natural Gas Decompress?Traders that have taken a long position on Natural Gas will have been feeling lighter than air for the better part of 2021. Remarkably, the trading price of Natural Gas has rocketed up 115% since the beginning of the year, outperforming price increases in other commodities currently sitting close to record highs, Oats (up by 63.83% YTD), Copper (up by 19.65% YTD), and steel (up by 38.27% YTD). As of writing, Natural Gas is trading at $5.592 per million British thermal units, a thirteen year high for the commodity. What Is The Reason For The Meteoric Rise In Natural Gas An unusually scorching 2021 summer in the US drove demand for air conditioning and Natural Gas beyond normal levels, resulting in a lower stockpile of the commodity for an unusually cold winter. Following this, extreme weather conditions, such as Hurricane Ida, interrupted Natural Gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico’s most productive zone. Will The Price Of Natural Gas Recede? Typically, when the price of a commodity rises, new investment will enter the market to scoop up the high prices. Regarding Natural Gas, the new investment could be from gas companies lifting output at existing gas wells or exploring new wells that will raise production. Counter-productively, the new investment and resulting lift in gas supply would help suppress the price rises in the commodity. New investment in Natural Gas has stalled as of late. While fossil fuels will still be needed for a long time, so-called ‘Zero Carbon’ policies from governing bodies worldwide are disincentivising Natural Gas exploration. The long-term prospects of Natural Gas wells are less certain and less attractive when contending with the likes of the Biden Administration throwing its full support behind renewable energy sources as the US engages in a wide-scale upgrade to its infrastructure. One project for the Biden Administration is for the US electric grid to be powered by 50% solar within the next thirty years. Achieving this goal would severely squeeze demand for Natural Gas, which, according to the EPA, generated approximately 40% of the country’s electricity in 2020.
N
by BlackBull_Markets
Descending Triangle in Natural Gas, Downside Target of 4.70Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. The commodity Natural Gas is currently in a descending triangle setup with lower highs around the 5.20 and 5.08 price levels and support observed around the 4.95 price level. If the commodity breaks through the 4.95 support it can head towards the 4.70 price level. Failure of this pattern will occur if Natural Gas were to rally above 5.10. Technical Indicators The commodity is currently trading below is short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. There has been negative crossovers on the short and medium as well as the medium and long term moving averages. These moves are bearish indications. To corroborate these signals of upcoming declines are the RSI being below the 50 level as well as a recent negative crossover in the KST. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 5.10 and a target of 4.70. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.31. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
NShort
by Ceddy86
Potential Break in Brent Crude Oil Towards 74.25Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. The consolidation in Brent Crude Oil over the last couple of days has produced 2 chart pattern setups, a Rectangle as well as a Reverse Head and Shoulders. Resistance for the Rectangle is around the 72.50 price level while support is seen at the 70.85 price level, which is also the Head of the Head and Shoulders pattern. The Left and Right Shoulders are around the 71.35 price level while the Neckline is around the 72.30 resistance. The completion of these chart patterns will take the commodity between 73.65 and 74.25. Technical Indicators Brent Crude Oil is trending higher as it is currently above its short (25-MA), medium (75-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. Also the short MA is above both the medium and long term MA and the medium term MA is above the long term MA. This denotes an uptrend over the respective timeframe. The RSI is above 50 and there has been a positive crossover on the KST. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 70.80 price level and a target of 74.25. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 1.12. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Brent Crude Oil.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by Ceddy86
Crude Oil Correction - Another US Policy MisstepIn early July 2021, nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to the highest price since 2014 after rising to a high of $76.98 per barrel. The price eclipsed the October 2018 $76.90 high by only eight cents. The crude oil futures market ran out of upside steam at the early July high and has made lower highs over the past seven weeks. At around the $62 per barrel level at the end of last week, the September futures contract was in a short-term bearish trend. Meanwhile, over the past year, the energy commodity made great strides on the upside. Virus variants and China weigh on the energy commodity US energy policy is bullish for crude oil A bull market since April 20, 2020 The US administration and crude oil- Comedy or Tragedy? Levels to watch in crude oil The most recent selling reflects a long-overdue correction. The slowing Chinese economy, along with other factors, is likely weighing on crude oil. Crude oil futures take the stairs to the upside during rallies and an elevator lower when the price corrects. While we could see lower prices over the coming weeks and months, the underlying support issues facing the energy commodity suggest that it is not a time to become too bearish on petroleum as it continues to power the world. Virus variants weigh on the energy commodity As the delta variant of COVID-19 spreads throughout the unvaccinated population, with reports of some breakthrough cases in those who received vaccines, economic activity has begun the slow. Fears of a return of widespread cases have caused economic growth to slow. Meanwhile, China has cracked down on some sectors of its business sector that raise capital in the west, causing its economy to cool over the past weeks. The demand for energy has begun to decline, sending the crude oil price to its lowest level since late May over the past week. The chart of the now active month October NYMEX crude oil futures highlights the decline from a high of $74.77 per barrel on July 6. In July and August, crude oil has made lower highs and lower lows, falling to $61.82 on August 20, the lowest price since May 21. The next level of technical support stands at the May 21 $60.68 low on October futures. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the NYMEX crude oil futures market, has declined from 2.414 million contracts on July 6. The decline reflects long liquidation. Falling price and declining open interest are not typically a technical validation of an emerging bearish trend. Price momentum and relative strength indicators have dropped to oversold territory. As crude oil has been correcting slowly and not taking an elevator shaft lower, daily historical volatility was just below 27% on August 20. Over the past week, the prospects for higher US interest rates lifted the US dollar index to its highest level in 2021. The dollar index rose over the 93.47 March high. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on commodity prices, and crude oil is no exception. However, the Fed canceled its in-person Jackson Hole event, citing the rising number of delta variant cases. We will soon find out if the central bank decides to stall tapering quantitative easing because of the virus. A prolonged period of inflationary monetary policy could cause raw material prices to resume their ascent. US energy policy is bullish for crude oil President Biden pledged to address climate change during his 2020 campaign. Following that promise, he canceled the Keystone XL pipeline project on his first day in office by issuing an executive order. In May, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. While crude oil demand has been booming over the past months, US output stood at 11.4 million barrels per day as of August 13, 13% below the record high of 13.1 mbpd in March 2020. Meanwhile, US crude oil and oil product inventories have declined in 2021. According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude oil stockpiles declined by 51.508 million barrels from January 1 through August 13, 2021. Gasoline stocks were 4.9509 million barrels lower, and distillate inventories dropped by 9.571 million barrels. The Energy Information Administration data shows a 57.8 million barrel drop in crude oil stocks, with gasoline inventories 8.4 million barrels lower so far this year. Distillates have declined by 13.9 million barrels. US daily production has increased from 11.0 mbpd to 11.4 mbpd since early January, but it is insufficient to keep stockpiles from falling. US energy policy is weighing on output as increased regulations, and a shift to a greener path for powering the US causes fossil fuel production to decline. Meanwhile, crude oil and oil product prices have moved substantially higher in 2021: Nearby NYMEX crude oil futures closed 2020 at $48.42 per barrel. At $62.32 per barrel on August 20, the energy commodity was over 28.7% higher even after the recent correction. Nearby NYMEX gasoline futures closed 2020 at $1.4238 per gallon. At $2.0236 on August 20, the fuel was 32.1% higher for the year. Nearby NYMEX heating oil futures, a proxy for distillate prices, settled at $1.4832 per gallon at the end of December 2020. At $1.9082 on August 20, distillate prices rose by 28.7%. While the US is on a greener path of energy production or consumption, the US and the world continue to rely on crude oil and oil products for power. For decades, the US struggled to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, home to over half the world’s crude oil reserves. Over the past years, rising shale production and a drill-baby-drill and frack-baby-frack policy caused the US to take the leadership role in output, achieving its goal. The change in energy policy under the Biden administration has shifted crude oil’s pricing power back to OPEC and the cartel’s partner, Russia. As the Saudi oil minister said earlier this year, “Drill-baby-drill is gone forever.” A bull market since April 20, 2020 At the height of the global pandemic, energy demand evaporated. Nearby Brent crude oil futures fell to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel. NYMEX futures fell below zero as the landlocked crude oil ran out of storage as inventories exploded. As the monthly chart shows, at over the $62 level on August 20, 2021, crude oil futures remain over $100 per barrel higher than the April 20, 2020, negative $40.32 low. While the nearby futures have corrected by nearly $15 since the early July high, they remain in a bullish trend since the April 2020 low. The US administration and crude oil- Comedy or Tragedy? If the Biden administration should have learned anything from the current debacle in Afghanistan, timing is everything. The administration misjudged the Taliban’s ability to swoop across the country’s 34 provinces and capture its capital, Kabul, in short order. Transporting US citizens and Afghanis that assisted the US became a tragic chapter for the world’s wealthiest nation and leading military power. Two weeks ago, before crude oil corrected, the Biden administration appealed to OPEC+ to produce more oil as gasoline prices had risen to multi-year highs. Opposition party Republicans and environmentalists noted that the President casts himself as a climate warrior moving the US towards cleaner energy to protect the planet. The request for OPEC to increase output only makes sense if their production comes from sources away from the earth. After suffering under increasing shale production over the past years, OPEC+ does not have the US’s best interests at heart. The cartel is more likely to structure production policy to squeeze US consumers. After all, producing one barrel at $100 yields a better return than two at the $40 level. The Biden administration has been in office for the past seven months. Immigration, Afghanistan, and energy policies have been far from successes over the period. One sector of the market could benefit from the events transpiring in Afghanistan. With banks closed, one of the few ways people can leave with life savings is to protect them in computer wallets in the cloud. Cryptos allow for transport on flash drives or access in other areas of the world via a secure password. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, posted gains over the past five consecutive weeks. The correction after the parabolic rally found a bottom. Flight capital is another reason supporting cryptos in a volatile world. Levels to watch in crude oil US energy policy remains bullish, despite the current correction in the crude oil futures market. OPEC and the Russians are not likely to cooperate with the Biden administration and heed the call for more output. They are more likely to cut production given the foreign policy tensions and signs of weakness in Afghanistan. The NYMEX crude oil’s weekly chart shows support levels at $61.56, $57.25, and $33.64 per barrel. As crude oil is heading towards the end of the driving season, delta variant cases are rising, and the US and Chinese economies are slowing, a deeper correction is possible. Meanwhile, with OPEC+ back in control of the marginal oil barrel, the medium and long-term prospects for the energy commodity remain bullish. I expect higher highs in crude oil in 2022 and beyond. US energy policy towards a greener path will change the oil market’s dynamics over the coming decades. Still, as petroleum continues to power the world in the medium term, the move to protecting the planet will lift oil’s price and fill OPEC+’s pockets over the coming years. I am short crude oil from a trend-following perspective, but US energy policy is likely to cause the fossil fuel to find a bottom at a higher level over the coming weeks. Follow those trends, they are your only friends. ----- Use the link below to sign up for free early access to articles. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
27
Gold in a Double Top Setup with a Target of 1720Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. The precious metal Gold is currently exhibiting a double top pattern setup, with the resistance area around the 1795 price level. The metal is currently testing 1780 support. If support holds, it may be temporary and the metal will find resistance around the downward trend line highlighted in red. If support breaks, it is expected that the trend reversal will continue, taking Gold towards 1720. Failure of this pattern would be observed if the precious metal breaks above 1800. Technical Indicators Currently Gold is trading below its short (25-MA), medium (75-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The key identifier in the change in trend is the break below the 200-MA. The RSI is also trading below 50 as the metal tests support. The longer timeframed KST is also in a negative zone, which is bearish for Gold. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1800 price level and a target of 1720. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 3.69. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ceddy86
Gold - Analysis of 7/28/2021The Algotrading Multiday system is: short from July 16, 2021 from $ 1815 position performance: 1.11% YTD performance: 10.04% 1 year performance: 12.13% At the end of the day: maintain position Number of transactions closed in the last year : 24 Average profit / loss per trade last year: 0.51% Trade in gain percentage last year: 58.33% Trade in loss percentage last year: 41.67% Graphic Analysis Sentiment remains bearish today as well. I maintain the same objectives: first tp 1790 and second tp 1775 Supports: $ 1790 $ 1750 Resistors: $ 1802 EMA 200 ($ 1808) I recommend observing, discussing, Like if you like, but as always, always use your head for operations !!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MarkRoboTS
Corn Futures Expected to Move Lower Towards 563'4Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Corn Futures ( ZC1!). Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. ZC1! Hit some resistance around the 572’2 price level and is expected to move lower in the short term. This resistance is a lower high on the commodity and is expected to make another leg lower. Technical Indicators ZC1! is currently above its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages. This price increase appears to be a counter trend move of an overall decline in the commodity. The RSI was overbought and is now trending lower towards the 50 level. Moreover, the KST is also displaying negative divergence as the indicator had a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing ZC1! is trading around 563’4. The short- term target price is observed around the 548’6 price level, towards the medium term SMA. A stop loss is set at 572’2. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.56.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Ceddy86
Natural Gas Heading Towards 3.20Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Natural Gas. Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. Natural Gas has been in a rangebound or rectangular trading pattern since the end of June and is currently making another move lower towards 3.50 support. The key move will be a breakdown from support which will take the commodity towards 3.20. Technical Indicators Natural Gas is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and its RSI is trading below 50, heading towards oversold levels. Moreover, the KST is in a bearish move . Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing Natural Gas is trading around 3.61. The medium-term target price is observed around the 3.2 price level. A stop loss is set at 3.85. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.77.
NShort
by Ceddy86