Get started

Commoditytrading

Are we entering a commodity super-cycle?Definition of a commodity super-cycle: Commodity super cycles are decade-long periods in which commodities trade above their long-term price trend. Technical Analysis: Using a weekly candlestick to see the bigger picture. DBC is breaking out of a 10 year long downtrend. On Balance Volume is supportive, as it is also breaking higher, reaching levels from a decade before. We are breaking and testing $18.5, which is a very long-term resistance; now potentially turning into support. This is a long-term setup. R1, R2 and R3 are potential targets to take some profits. Fundamental factors: Weakening dollar Supportive central banks Fiscal stimulus geared for infrastructure spending Pent-up demand once as global economies re-open. Government and private companies increasingly pledging carbon reduction measures. Inflation ticking higher, as the Fed is taking a new approach of waiting, rather than anticipating, as it has done in the past.
AMEX:DBCLong
by dorfmanmaster
XAU USD - the pathwaysHello traders and analysts A Note before reading - this is a technical qualitative analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Volume is used on occasion as well as quantitative features - which will be explained. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See the SPX or US500 analysis here: Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Below are the imbalances which are clearly outlined; (i) the first imbalance, shows the 2020 low whereby price has retested the zone between 1112 - 1180, the previous imbalance identified is comprised of the Spinning top - while on a monthly body, the evidence is clear here where price will experience a buyer, sellers imbalance - giving the high probability of price closing out sells and creating a high buying imbalance upon the low. (ii) the second imbalance is between 1447 - 1554 (despite this being a huge range - the reason for this zone is due to the price creating a high of 1554, which price has established - imbalances will be retested and filled successfully . Notice the monthly doji - before the bullish engulfing candle** (see screenshot two) to understand where the imbalance has filled the low closing of the high. Price reacted and created the buying imbalance - converting the sellers to close out or buyers hedging positions. ** imbalance filling example (iii) Price then established a high of 2077.XX - 1966 imbalance upon the monthly. This is now the Fibonacci monthly top - or the weekly target using Fibonacci on the extension target for further evidence of the high reaching the target top. From here though, the imbalance converted the high - to the Fibonacci 38.2*, whilst this is only a confirmation, the real reason for this is price will close out the imbalance at 1673 - which needed filling. This created a pivot point within the market structure to establish further longs. Now adding the weekly imbalances Here are the highlighted zones which are where the imbalances have occurred. Notice how these zones align within the monthly imbalances. These are clearly defined as outlined by the second chart. . Whereby price has touched the imbalance low and closed out the wick. This has proved the monthly level imbalances and determines the pivot structure. Four day, 16 hour is privatised Daily Imbalances The Daily levels are shown and on the imbalance wick - before price has created an engulfing candle. The price shows the target of the range at 198X.XX - this will form a range top before the four day, weekly imbalance and daily imbalance above. Price will look to leave a wick here for a high towards 1990 where the previous wick high was. This will be needed where the imbalance. Where gold is heading using trendlines and patterns. The idea of what price is looking to achieve - using the eight hour chart as a drawing tool. Cross-asset comparison Here is the XAU XAG sector index for a cross comparison showing the levels of commodities - showing the rise in precious metals are back with the imbalances. Weekly overlay of XAU sector index vs XAU XAU XAG Here is the chart of Gold and Silver correlation - where price is floating around the 61.8%* Fibonacci retracement. The reason for using this chart is to fully understand the relationship of the undervalue of XAU XAG against the market sentiment. Inflation ETF Vs XAUXAG Here is the monthly chart with the overlay of the Pro Shares Trust Inflation Expectation. Below is the weekly chart - where 0% interest rates have been applied, since this moment repeating again since 1930's - this is a critical pattern piece of the market to understand. Attached is the Fred Federal Reserve balance sheet The monthly chart represents the S&P500, US02Y and the FRED/WALCL all together. Notice the cross patterns between 2008/09 and of course with the most recent Pandemic. A further detailed version of this is . GBP JPY is privatised Key SPX = Orange US02Y = Light blue WALCL = Dark Blue The returns of the US02Y correlation is negative against the SPX & FRED. Although the SPX is completing the Fibonacci extension - this is a cause for concern. This is a huge macro-economic shift and is now becoming concerning. For a further understanding, of QE and inflation measures - please do your research on said topics. To put things into perspective - the Repo market has now created an over supply of cash in the market which has essentially no where to go.. where, the increase of USD at 0% has been part of the asset purchase and drawdowns on the balance sheet causing a Reverse Repo situation. This has not been helped in the slightest by states, and other financial measures providing stimulus onto the end user . Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LupaCapital
3
XAG USD - May update [Full breakdown]Hello analysts and traders, Please see the previous chart below for Silver. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original idea here: Monthly Here are the clear paths for silver, to provide clear indications of where price will drive from and to. The inefficiencies are clearly marked and have previously reacted at these points in the past. The buy zone - price had tested the low of 2009 - at a testing of the imbalance at $11.6XX, which falls inline with the three month chart view* With the initial first time imbalance providing a clear buying path - the opportunity here was to buy upon confirmation of the low rejection, by looking to the weekly for a confirm. The price was showing a high probability of inefficiency, allowing the price to pivot off the bottom of the wick. Three month view* The zones applied here are crucial to understand the monthly and weekly zones placed on top. Yes, the zone on the top is a huge wick - however, this had provided price to grow into the pivotal and vital zone where price has provisions to show an opportunity here for the zone to become a great opportunity to obtain a future outlook breaking said zone. What price can indicate at this moment - is a large gap for price to freely test. See the follow up chart ** ** Weekly the weekly imbalances have been marked - where; 1. the inefficient pricing imbalance from the low point of 2020 - which marked the test of the monthly zone, price had rejected and created a new formulated zone above, where price had created a great opportunity and highly probable long position . the relevance of this candle marked, is where price has reacted - whereby sellers are closing out positions as the price is creating long orders. The mid zone opportunity was based on the 2014 candle formation - where, price had begun to sell off upon a retest of the sell off from 2013 monthly imbalance. This acted as a swap zone - but created a testing of the structure for sell imbalances to look to add positions. The top imbalance is hiding within the monthly zone. Where price had rejected the monthly zone but needed to be retested. Price created a weekly low which allows the price to create the low. From here, allow a retest - which forms a formation lower high. Historical Fractal Here are two weekly fractal formations where price had created an imbalance opportunity. Price made a low which reaches the key level desired imbalance. Four day Here is the current four day imbalances applied to the chart - where price currently does not have an imbalance as yet - some would consider the $29.9 zone an imbalance but looking left - the next zone looks to be a high probability at $35.XX The current state of the market - will see price 'move' where the market determines the range - which is well established. Price during a bear market, will provide a high probability to keep price moving up to $35 range and beyond, but keep in mind the caveat of price falling first to shake out smaller buyers. 16 Hour time frame Here is the 16 hour time frame, where price has established the area of the imbalance at the top of the range. Price has reacted multiple times in this zone. Now price will be looking to test this area again for a third time. Once it has now - the imbalance will become a new additional zone to keep the long positions. Cross over assets Here is XAU XAG with the US10years as a cross over asset. The Yields have always been entrusted as a good indication from a macro-economic prospective. Using the weekly chart - price has established lows - which equate to a 'bottom out' . Price created a great monthly imbalance on the monthly chart* The low zone $45 - 30 - price moved to create a new high which is -0.618 as intended using the Fibonacci extension tool. Using Fibonacci - the 61.8% shows that price is at a strong level to react and pivot to push towards the all time high - but extend further. ** Adding the Vix (volatility index) on the weekly timeframe. Price has has shown the yield correlation between the VIX and Yields. Using the XAG chart vs the gold and silver sector index - this is for correlation purposes. . XAU VS DXY DXY is showing a weakening further of the US dollar , but has touched upon a critical imbalance as previously analysed, comparing the imbalance upon XAU in correlation to the SPX, XAU has created an imbalance between $1670- 1730 on the monthly rejection. This imbalance here can be retested as the SPX moves towards completing the Fibonacci extension sequence and forms its new imbalance upon a monthly time frame. DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action. Applying Fibonacci to prove the price extension target lines with the imbalance on the four day, and weekly. Inflation - simplified: Types of inflation Cost-push inflation – when a rise in prices is caused by a rise in the cost of production, such as higher oil prices Demand-pull inflation – when a rise in prices is caused by rising aggregate demand and firms pushing up prices due to the shortage of goods The most likely scenario will be a cost push inflation scenario Rising wages If trades unions can present a united front then they can bargain for higher wages. Rising wages are a key cause of cost-push inflation because wages are the most significant cost for many firms. (higher wages may also contribute to rising demand) Import prices Using the UK as an example, where 1/3rd of all goods are imported in the UK. If there is a devaluation, then import prices will become more expensive leading to an increase in inflation. A devaluation/depreciation means the Pound is worth less to the EUR GBP, GBP USD, GBP AUD etc. Therefore the payment is more to buy the same imported goods as before, where these prices are pushed on to the consumer to keep profits, the same. Where are we with the inflation outlook? Currently it is uncertain, but applying using the charts above where the VIX has been supressed but should not be ignored — plus the economy has never reopened from a pandemic before — and because the way the government approaches economic policy has shifted over the past year - where the FED (US) have adopted an approach of printing and keeping rates at very low rates to obtain and justify continuing a huge bond-buying program that the Fed began at the start of the pandemic downturn. Those policies make money cheap to borrow, ultimately bolstering demand for goods and services and helping prices to rise. Keep in mind, the federal government has drastically loosened its purse strings, spending trillions of dollars to pull the economy out of the pandemic recession. Both the fiscal and the monetary response are meant to keep households economically whole through a challenging period, so there was also a risk to having less-ambitious policies. Watch the chart to see price move in our favour to the upside or sink? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
WTI - RANGE BOUND!WTI - RANGE BOUND! Commodities overall since last yr are on a rise as seen on commodity index, I mean look at lumber and various others the % of return has been great and this has been increasing due to inflation, lower dollar etc. For now WTI - We are still within the range technically. Pattern: Pennant Support: 62.62, 60.30, 59.15, 57.20, 55.40 Resistance: 67.15, 69.75, 72.65, 75.15 A break to either direction for further clarification, the key trendline up staying above the bulls are still in control if we break below trendline up bears may start coming in. Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
FX_IDC:USDWTI
by Trade_Journal
Silver: Wait After WaitThe last couple of weeks have been relatively tiring as we are desperately waiting for the silver to make a move. This market is developing very slowly. Our expectation is that we will see declining prices for silver, as we expect it to move under $24.04. Somewhere around $22.23, we should see a short correction before the price gradually moves under $20. As long as we stay above $24.04, however, there is a 35% chance that the bulls take over and push for new highs above $30.35. Patience pays off!
COMEX:SI1!
by MarketIntel
📈 (3/14)-(3/15) ES Trade Plan 📈 Hello Traders, today we'll be following up from last week's 3/12 Trade Plan. The last time we took a look at ES I mentioned healthy pullback to about 3901 or so before another attempt at last week's high near 3958.50-3959.25 - Well thats exactly what happened. Here's the new plan: 🔸 Long after a healthy pullback to minor supports 3933 or ideally 3923 🔸 PT Near @3945, 3958-3959 (ATH), Low 4000's. 🔸 Short rejecting @3946-3948 or failing to break over 3958-3959 (ATH) 🔸 PT Near @3935, 3922, 3901.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Kindredd
1
Are you ready for some Natural Gas ?I believe Nat Gas is approaching a crucial demand zone! WHAT NEXT? My current view remained neutral and speculative with Natural Gas being in a range of 2.9xx - 3.400. However, Natural Gas could develop a bullish move if the weather condition in the US continued to strengthen. For Intraday traders, you could look for Buy setups as it approaches 2.9xx with R:R ratio at 3.04. To be more clear, your target will be at 3.400 and stoploss at 2.740. If you want to be risky your stop loss could be at 2.550. For Swing traders and Position traders, I will not take this trade. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! ~ Tuan Anh Commo
NYMEX:NG1!
by TheCommoTrader