Gold to post a corrective bounce in the coming monthsThe anticipated bounce from the USD1123.50 (76.4%) retracement of the December-July rally is unfolding, with Gold prices now approaching USD1200 as oversold studies begin to stabilise.
A push above here is looked for, as investors sentiment gradually improves, but the USD1300 break level is expected to prove difficult to reach, as the Tension Indicator (not shown) continues to weaken and background studies turn mixed.
An unexpected close below the USD1122.80 low of December 2016, however, will negate higher levels, and open up congestion around USD1100, as the July bear trend gathers traction
Commoditytrading
Still biased to the long side(GOLD)GLD held the broken trendline and the $110 level.
The price action at these levels does not jump off the screen at me, meaning it looks shaky IMO.
I would not be surprised if we revisit $100.
I still believe the long-term R/R is to the upside from these levels.
I will be looking to buy dips b/w 100-110. I would stop out under 100.
Let's breakdown the R/R.
I am willing to risk up to $12 to the downside.
I like the upside to be 3x my risk. My initial upside target is $147.75-(3*12)+111.75.
In trading you are looking for positive expected value propositions.
To get this you take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain.
It is an imperfect measure, but it allows you to frame your trades on a consistent basis so you can compare what the best available trades are at a given moment.
Any comments or question, please leave below, look forward to hearing your opinions.
Caleb
SB1! @ daily @ 1of2 (44) Commodities with a bearish 100/200MATake care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
44 COMMODITIES of Chicago, New York & londo (MA 100 & 200 inside bullish) @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
CC1! @ daily @ worst Commodity (-33%) 2016, closed yearly lowTake care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
44 COMMODITIES (2016 Yearly Performance) from Chicago, New York & London @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
CRUDE OIL, DAY CHART, NEUTRAL (18-DEC-2016)Note: Crude Oil
Now we see the price of crude oil is near the strong
resistance zone at 52.2x level.
There are 2 trading plans for this:
1. If the price breaks the resistance zone strongly,
wait for pullback to the resistance zone or 20-EMA
and bullish signal to long again
2. If there are 1-2 more bearish signal around the
resistance zone, it might be good to short!
CORN, MONTHLY CHART, BUY, LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PLAN(11-DEC-2016)Long-Term Investment Opportunity:
Corn price is trading down since year 2013 and
the current price is near 8-year history low.
It is good to buy at the MARKET CYCLE LOW and
hold for long term.
Here are few ways to accumulate your long term
investment in Corn:
1. Buy now with little % as the price is already
quite low
2. Buy with more % when the price further drop
to 8-year history low level
3. Buy more % when price drop to 10-year
history low
WTI CRUDE OIL, DAY CHART, LONG (11-DEC-2016)Crude Oil is trying its 2nd attempt to break the
resistance zone.
There are 3 possibilities here:
1. If it break the resistance zone, wait for PB
to the resistance zone and a bullish signal to long.
2. Eventually, it might form consolidation near
the resistance zone. If breakout, can directly long
3. If there are 2-3 "2 BARS REVERSAL" to trigger
the BEARISH movement, we will change our
view to short!
A Risk to Reward of 1:3 for this trade :)
Fundamentally, the crude oil price rally is due to the oil production cut by OPEC and potential cut from Russia and NON-OPEC Countries. The production cut might not able to reduce the current global stockpile significantly. It might be the reason to hold the crude oil price trading in the range!
XAUUSD, US Election Shock overMarkets reacted pretty well to Donald Trump being elected as US President with SPX500 reaching all time high. Therefore, GOLD has tanked below 1200!
With USD being over-priced and GOLD failing to break 0.2Fib, it could be time for to buy XAUUSD. RSI and MACD also bullish. Blue line also shows important previous structure with GOLD unable to break it.
WTI CRUDE OIL, SHORT, DAY CHART (13-NOV-2016)Recently quite strong bearish market behavior.
A weak flag also appeared which might suggest the bearish trend will be continued.
If it breaks the support zone around 43.00-43.10, it will be good to short.
R/R ratio will be around 1:1.32
If after breaks the support zone, it pulls back to the zone, look for another bearish signal to short again.
Will Putin's Intervention Rally Oil? Watch 46.00 For CluesAccording to a new Bloomberg interview Mr Putin is pushing for OPEC and Iran to halt oil supply in order to rally prices above $50 a barrel.
The measure of success will be a close above $46.00 as it was breakout above this level that previously took oil above $50.00.
Given the nature of oil any major exporter announcing they want to cut supply should provoke a short term rally and 46.00 is in view given Friday's close failed to break the 61.80% fib level.
A sell trade is still on the cards with price failing to close above 44.64 where we have prior structure so now it's a matter of waiting for exhausted candles at this level or if we see a spike upwards from Mr Putin's words.
XAUUSD : Potential Reversal Suspected to 1419Bulkowski's Inverted Scallop in sight on Daily.
Has Trendline Resistance at around 1325-1327
EMA20 on daily at 1325 may provide necessary bounce.
A: 1305.38
B: 1375.92
(B - A) x 61% = Height of Impulse
B + Height of Impulse = Target Price.
($1375.92 - $1305.38) X 61% = $42.82
1375.92 + 42.82 = 1418.74
PlatinumI'm already long. I will add to my longs in that pretty little red zone.
Gotta respect that trend!