Brent Oil Short Trade Consideration(1)We are looking at Brent oil for a potential short trade only if the following occurs:
1.Wait for Daily bottom to confirm
2.Then for top to confirm before taking shorts till Weekly Confirmation Bar
low is taken out at 83.46
**We will only be considering this short trade for a very small period as Weekly is in Uptrend**
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
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Refn weekly Image
Commoditytrading
XAUUSD: Very alarming MACD Bearish Cross long term.Gold continues to flash bearish signals and besides the weekly (RSI = 34.620), it is about to turn technically bearish on the monthly timeframe as well (RSI = 48.938, MACD = 40.760, ADX = 33.051). On an even larger scale (3M), we have detected the latest sell indication, as the MACD formed a Bearish Cross.
With the price inside a giant Megaphonoe pattern where all candles have closed inside it, we can expect the current correction to extend as low as its bottom. During Gold's last accumulation phase (2015-2018), it was the 3M MA50 that saved the day and after testing and holding, it started the 2019 parabolic run.
Is this test inevitable?
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Live Trading Session 240: Live positions on Gold and EurIn this live trading session video,we look at our live running position on gold and the closed trade on EURUSD. Both these trades were take live on the RTCT webinar and still running. They are based on the Smart money framework,cycle methodolgy and volume principles.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
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US Oil Approaches $90 Amidst Supply Scare and Cooling DemandIntroduction:
The oil market is heating up, and there's an exciting opportunity knocking at our doors. Brace yourselves as we delve into the recent surge in US oil prices, which have approached the $90 mark due to a scare in supply and cooling demand. In this article, we will explore the factors driving this upward trajectory and present a compelling call-to-action for those ready to seize this golden opportunity and long oil!
The Supply Scare:
In recent months, the global oil market has been grappling with a series of supply disruptions, sending shockwaves through the industry. From hurricanes disrupting offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico to geopolitical tensions impacting major oil-producing regions, the supply scare has created a perfect storm for oil prices to skyrocket. As traders, we understand the significance of such disruptions and the potential for them to create lucrative opportunities.
Cooling Demand:
Simultaneously, we have witnessed a cooling in demand, primarily driven by concerns over the resurgence of COVID-19 and its impact on global economic recovery. Travel restrictions, reduced industrial activity, and shifting consumer behavior have all contributed to a temporary dip in oil demand. However, as the world adapts to the new normal and economies gradually reopen, the demand for oil is expected to rebound, further fueling the potential for significant returns.
The Perfect Storm for Traders:
The convergence of supply disruptions and cooling demand has created an ideal environment for traders to capitalize on the oil market's upward momentum. With US oil prices inching closer to the $90 mark, there's an undeniable opportunity to long oil and ride the wave of potential profits.
Call-to-Action: Long Oil Now!
Fellow traders, it's time to seize the moment and embrace the exciting prospects that lie ahead. Here's a compelling call-to-action to encourage you to long oil:
Conduct Thorough Research: Dive deep into the current market dynamics, examining supply trends, geopolitical factors, and demand projections. This will enable you to make informed decisions and identify the best entry points for long positions.
Diversify Your Portfolio: Consider incorporating oil-related assets into your trading portfolio to leverage the potential upside. Options such as oil futures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or even energy sector stocks can provide exposure to the oil market's upward movement.
Set Realistic Targets and Manage Risk: Establish clear profit targets and implement risk management strategies to protect your investments. Utilize stop-loss orders, trailing stops, or other risk mitigation tools to ensure you don't get caught off guard by unexpected market fluctuations.
Stay Informed and Adapt: Monitor market news, industry reports, and expert opinions to stay ahead of the curve. The oil market can be volatile, and being proactive in adjusting your positions based on new information is crucial for maximizing returns.
Conclusion:
Traders, the time has come to embrace the exciting opportunity presented by the surge in US oil prices. With supply scares and cooling demand paving the way for potential gains, it's time to long oil and ride the wave of profits. By conducting thorough research, diversifying your portfolio, setting realistic targets, and staying informed, you can position yourself for success in this dynamic market. So, let's seize this moment and make the most of this exciting trading opportunity!
S&P quick Bounce but don't be fooledES made some considerable moves to the downside this week. Now it is time to partially rebalance those scales.
My expectations for the first few days of this week:
Monday-Tuesday-
Upwards retracement with price being pulled upwards by 4553.
Once there I will look for area rejection signs for our next leg down to the 4483.25 target.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Double Buy entry on this Channel Up.WTI Crude Oil hit the HL trendline inside the 1H Channel Up pattern, which was enough to turn the 1H technical outlook bearish (RSI = 37.852, MACD = 0.140, ADX = 31.002). A 1H RSI that low has previously been a buy entry two days ago. The lowest it has been during this Channel Up was 35.400.
In response to the above, we deem the HL hold good enough to make a first buy attempt and target the top of the Channel (TP = 92.00) on another +3.21% increase. If the price crosses under the HL we will make a second buy attempt at the bottom of the Channel Up (assuming the 1H MA200 holds) and target the 0.382 - 0.236 Fibonacci range on R1 (TP = 91.10)
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Is gold going to continue further south?We have entered Gold on the daily confirmation bar on a short trade. This is based on a daily P1 trend continuation move, and along with a weekly continuation trade move according to our smart money framework indicator. You can see on the image below on which part of the cycle we are in on the weekly timeframe and how that matches up with the daily. According to our OE tables, we can see that there is a 70% chance that the weekly potential low will be taken and for the short move to continue further.
Gold(Short)
E - 1925.6
ISL - 1953
T - TBC
Trailing stop at 1932
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Is silver going to run further south?(2)We had a great clean move on silver past our 50% OE target. It has now hit our trailing stop.
Trade order summary position:
Silver(Short)
Trail stopped out at 2320.
Net P/L: 1.51% Profit
@1% =$1000,
1.51% = $1510
Do refer to our previous chart image where we took the trade last week.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Palladium Analysis: Is price starting a swing higher? Today's focus: Palladium
Pattern – Descending triangle / Range
Support – 1223
Resistance – 1320
• Palladium added 4.37% on Thursday
• Palladium and Platinum ignored USD strength to finish firm on Thursday.
Hi, and thanks for checking out today’s analysis. We’re looking at Palladium primarily in today’s video, but we have also mentioned Platnuim, as it also posted a solid session on Thursday.
After yesterday’s rally, we have looked at a few things that have stood out in the buyer's favour, but we have also broken down the remaining hurdles and what we want to see from price to confirm the bullish signs.
Do you trade Palladium? If so, please let us know what you think of the descending triangle pattern and if you agree with current volume supporting yesterday’s move.
Have a great day and good trading.
Soft (Metals) Landing: Silver Likely Has More Room to FallSilver has been trading inside of a falling wedge since April 2022, battered by an increasingly-hawkish fed. Despite a formidable collapse in the biggest inflation driver, oil, CPI and PPI reports are shaping up to be a continuation of the trend; worsening inflation. With any weakness in oil likely to be temporary given our macro environment, it's easy to speculate that inflation-related surprises will likely be to the upside, adding even more pressure to a committed fed.
Because of this, I'm expecting the downtrend in metals to remain intact as we march towards future FOMC rate decisions. Inflation and unemployment currently stand to embolden the fed to raise on the high end of projections until there is a meaningful downtick in inflation, or a material disaster economically. The latter of which can be devastating for silver, given its industrial role. Lastly, specifically for silver, there are also gaps ahead of us that will likely want closed.
Gaps are outlined on this chart going back to 2020 bottoms, and FOMC meeting dates are represented by vertical lines.
My suspicions/beliefs/biases:
Silver is setting up one of the best buying opportunities in recent memory, and market forces will continue to drive deep value deeper for some time.
When the trend reverses, it will reverse for decades, and maybe longer.
Renewable energy sector, capital preservation strategies, fiat collapse, and relative value against literally everything will eventually snap silver's 11 year losing streak.
There will be another touch on the bottom trendline of the falling wedge, likely at or near the September FOMC meeting.
Silver should not break out of the wedge to the downside, but if it does, moves to gap lines will be violent.
We are almost certain to test gap line 1, and it is fairly likely that we will test gap line 2.
Once gap lines take support away from the descending wedge bottom line, reversal has likely begun.
Very unlikely that silver goes far beneath $14.70/oz.
Closing gap 2 would almost certainly mark the end of a front-loaded rate hike cycle, and almost lend itself to capitulatory selling-off, marking what I see to be a likely bottom moving forward.
Beneath gap 2, something terrible has probably happened, hug your loved ones and pray.
TLDR; Short/medium term bearish while the wedge is intact, eternally bullish the moment a breakout to the upside or a fed pivot occurs.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Overbought on 1D but still bullish.WTI Crude Oil turned overbought on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 70.618, MACD = 2.330, ADX = 75.260) as it is extending its relentless rally inside a Channel Up pattern since the June 28th low. This 1 month uptrend is approaching the R1 (83.50), which is the High of April 12th and current Resistance. We are using this as a short-term buy opportunity (TP1 = 83.50). As long as the Channel Up holds, we will buy again upon a pull back (TP2 = 85.50). If the price crosses under the 4H MA100 though, it would mean the end of the bullish trend, and we will shor, targeting S1 (TP = 74.00).
Prior idea:
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Gold: Can buyers hit a new leg higher? Today's focus:
Pattern – Continuation
Possible targets – 1978.50
Support – 1952.70
Resistance – 1965.55
Hi traders, and welcome to today’s update. After buyers held support on Monday, gold looks to be edging at new continuation in its current stage 1. Signs continue to favour buyers after they broke out of the medium-term downtrend last week.
We want to see price beat resistance and hold support or, at a minimum, the moving average to a new uptrend for the last leg higher to remain valid.
US retail sales data is due out today and could have an impact on the USD and Gold.
Have a great day and good trading.
WTI CRUDE OIL: First time since April on the 1D MA100WTI Crude Oil reached the 1D MA100 for the first time since April 28th. The 1D technicals turned green (RSI = 59.140, MACD = 0.550, ADX = 29.727) and if the 1D candle closes over the 1D MA100, then an emerging Channel Up will lead it to the 1D MA200 and consequently we will target a HH (TP = 76.50).
We will take the loss if the price crosses under the Channel Up and the 4H MA50, where we will go short and target the S1 (TP = 66.80) on the long term.
Prior idea:
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GOLD: What the hammer formartions tell usFollowing a downtrend, where the price action created a series of the lower lows and lower highs, the bulls are increasing their presence in the game and are signaling that there might be a change in the price direction. Thus, a hammer signals a potential change in the price direction, as the bears were unable to follow up on the new short-term low by allowing the bulls to push the price higher to force a higher close. It is exactly the high close that signals that the bulls have just assumed control over the price action, as they defeated the bears in an important fight near the session lows.
Similarly, the inverted hammer also generates the same message, but in a different manner. The price action opened low, but pushed higher to surprise the bears. Still, the bears still have control and they push back the price action to close near the lows. Unlike the hammer, the bulls in an inverted hammer were unable to secure a high close, but were defeated in the session’s closing stages. Still, the mere fact that the buyers were able to press the price higher shows that they are testing the bears’ resolve. The fact that the hammer’s bulls managed to get a close at the top of the candle is the reason the hammer is considered stronger than the inverted hammer. This is a logical sequence as the hammer is considered to be one of the most powerful candlestick patterns of any type.
It is important to note that neither of these two patterns is a direct trading signal, but a tool which generates a sign that the price action may reverse as a balance shift is occurring.
Having said that, we have this Pattern forming on GOLD, so wait for confirmation of the bullish breakout candle at today's close, and if this happens we will have confirmation of a potential short-term reversal.
Our last two analyses:
🔴 HARMONIC STRUCTURE IN PLAY (short)
🔴 WAVES STRUTTURE IN PLAY (long)
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Trade with care!
BluetonaFX - SILVER Potential Double Top OpportunityHi Traders!
There is a potential double top pattern forming on the Silver 4H chart. This depends on the very important level on the chart, which is 23.091.
Originally, we had a price rejection at 23.091, which we marked on the chart. The price rejection formed a price channel to the downside; there was then a break of this channel in an attempt to re-test 23.091, and we have found resistance again near this level.
If 23.091 holds again, the chart pattern will become a double top pattern, which is bearish. If there is a momentum break and a close above 23.091, the potential double top will be broken, and then there are long-term levels to the upside. We have a calculated long-term Vector level of 24.205.
There are opportunities for possible entries near 23.091, or another option is to wait either for a confirmation sign of a breakout or a reversal. There are great risk-reward opportunities for both options.
Please remember to like, comment, and follow us, as your support greatly helps us.
Thank you for your support.
BluetonaFX
COPPER: Best sell signal on a 1 month basis.Copper hit the top of the Channel Down pattern that started in mid January and got rejected straight away. The 1D time frame already turned neutral (RSI = 51.361, MACD = 0.023, ADX = 28.747) and if the price crosses under the 1D MA50 and MA200, it will give a confirmed sell continuation signal.
First target is the S1 (TP1 = 3.5525) and second near the S2 (TP2 = 3.3750). A 1D RSI Double Bottom inside its S1 support, will be the first buy signal.
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Oil: Can support survive? Today's focus: Oil
Pattern – Descending Triangle
Possible targets – 64.06 73.22
Support – 67.05
Resistance – 72.22 74.15
Hi, and thanks for looking at today’s update. Our attention is on oil after yesterday’s sharp selling took price back to key support. This level has held firm for buyers, but could this be the fourth time lucky for sellers? So far, production cut updates have done little more than spur on sellers.
Will we see buyers re-hold this level, or could we see a new break lower by sellers that gets the downtrend back on track?
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
XAUUSD as we see gold price respond 139 if we get initiative we come into the support we get initiative of f that low that low we should see price responds as well ok once price responds to the upside that's the price response we looking for and that's ultimately the process of initiation that's began ,buying offers but sellers are responding . so the process of responsive and initiative as we approach resistance we see buyers that lifting offers , but sellers are providing more liquidity than the sellers combine that's why we see a positive delta at the high and a negative delta at the low . once price come 144 146 trade location shift in dynamic, after absorption price lift above 148 excess point to opportunity to go long without excess point there is no trade. market through 1970 after bounce of on handle .