XAUUSD: Healthy pull back inside the Channel Up.XAUUSD reached the top of the Channel Up and as the 4H timeframe turned overbought (RSI = 66.415, MACD = 15.310, ADX = 35.525) we should see a technical pullback to the bottom. Apart from the 4H MA50, we expect this pull back to be of a minimum -3.75%. With the 4H RSI on clear sell territory, sell now with TP = 2,005.
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Commoditytrading
Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points
The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%, meeting Mitrade's estimates. Meanwhile, the US stock market closed lower as Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at further rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 270 points to 33,414. The S&P 500 fell 28 points to 4,090, and the Nasdaq 100 retreated 83 points to 13,030.
Later tonight, the European Central Bank is also expected to increase rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%. EUR/USD gained 60 pips to 1.1059, and GBP/USD surged 100 pips to 1.2564.
AUD/USD edged up 8 pips to 0.6669, as Australian retail sales recorded a 0.4% month-on-month increase in March. USD/CAD closed 10 pips lower at 1.3615, and USD/JPY plunged 185 pips to 134.68.
Spot gold climbed $22 to $2,038.76 an ounce. Despite supply disruptions and declining inventories, WTI oil futures slipped $3.06 to $68.60 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum advanced to $29,083.0 and $1,902.20 respectively.
Investors surprised by Australia’s rate hikeOn Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, to control inflation. The decision was not expected by investors. AUD/USD then added 31 pips to 0.6661.
The Eurozone year-on-year inflation rate was 7.0% as expected by Mitrade. EUR/USD increased 24 pips to 1.0999, and GBP/USD slipped 32 pips to 1.2464. USD/CAD rose 83 pips to 1.3625, and USD/JPY dropped 95 pips to 136.53.
Spot gold surged HKEX:35 to HKEX:2 ,016.72 an ounce, and WTI oil futures fell $4.04 to $71.66 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently trading higher at HKEX:28 ,548.0 and HKEX:1 ,863.61 respectively.
The S&P 500 declined 48 points to 4,119, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 367 points to 33,684. The Nasdaq 100 closed 117 points lower at 13,113.
SUGARUSD Bearish ShortTrading AnalysisSUGAR RAWUSD
Bearish trend forming for Sugar Commodity
We are seeing a Elliot 5 pattern way theory occurring as well on the 2-3 hour charts.
But most importantly sugar is spiraling down towards a major support level. Clearly the uptrend has broken it's trend line with a fake cat bounce/retest making it definite the reversal has occurred.
FIB LEVELS also mention that the support is a crucial zone of interest. As it could reverse or keeping it's bearishness due to it's heavy many spikes of volume.
A parallel channel has formed. I would place a sell limit in it's latest order block as seen in the picture, also to mention that there are many inside bar candles in this order block which can be used efficiently for the right trade, in this scenario shorting.
A nice 650+ pip move if all goes as speculated.
- David van Delden
XAUUSD Gold Bullish Move Momentum LongBullish XAUUSD
Fed Rate's higher = gold increases while dollar deceases. (positive fundamental news)
Next to this we are seeing most likely a new break of structure from it's resistance.
If XAUUSD breaks above this a performs a retest in the zone we will see the price rise up to wards the fib level corresponding with the bigger previous swing high (resistance) also a key supply zone for sellers.
Both aspects positively confirm new potential bullishness in Gold.
SL below it's demand zone or swing low
TP 2.414 FIB LEVEL (to be safe I would set it just some PIPS below it)
- David van Delden
First Republic Bank auctioned off to JPMorgan ChaseAfter the high-profile seizure of the First Republic Bank, JPMorgan has agreed to pay $10.6 billion to US regulators for taking over the bank. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase’s stock price rose 2.14% to $141.20.
As other major markets were closed for the holidays, the S&P 500 slipped 1 point to 4,167. The Nasdaq 100 declined 14 points to 13,231, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46 points to 34,051.
EUR/USD closed 45 pips lower to 1.0975, and GBP/USD tumbled 76 pips to 1.2496. AUD/USD gained 15 pips to 0.6630, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain a 3.60% interest rate level in May. USD/CAD slid 6 pips to 1.3542, and USD/JPY climbed 121 pips to 137.48.
Spot gold decreased HKEX:8 to HKEX:1 ,981 an ounce, and WTI oil futures moved down $1.10 to $75.70 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading lower at HKEX:27 ,961.0 and HKEX:1 ,830.83 respectively.
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailThe much-expected bullish pressure following the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production appears to be losing steam as bears are defying OPEC+ again. The majority of market participants are of the opinion that the selling pressure witnessed in the previous week is a result of persistent US rate hikes and recession fears but if we take a look at this bearish move from a technical standpoint, it could be a retracement phase which most of the time is a consequence of profit-taking activities. This video illustrated the technical side of the current market structure and highlighted a key level at the 78.00 level which will be serving as our yardstick for trading activities in the coming week.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
US GDP growth slows more than expectedLast night, the US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate was at 1.1% - noticeably lower than Mitrade's expectations of 2.0%. On the other hand, the labor market strengthens as the Initial Jobless Claims reading decreases to 230,000.
Germany and Canada will announce their GDP data tonight, with the market estimating lower readings at 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. EUR/USD fell 13 pips to 1.1027, and USD/CAD declined 44 pips to 1.3591. GBP/USD added 20 pips to 1.2487, and AUD/USD increased 31 pips to 0.6629. USD/JPY rose 26 pips to 133.93.
Spot gold slipped $1.55 to HKEX:1 ,987.85 an ounce, and WTI oil futures edged up $0.38 to $74.76 a barrel. Bitcoin is currently trading below the HKEX:30 ,000 level at HKEX:29 ,551, and Ethereum just climbed to HKEX:1 ,913.53.
A strong earnings report sent Meta Platforms (META) surging 13.93% to $238.56 and supported the Nasdaq 100 to gain 353 points to 13,160. The S&P 500 increased 79 points to 4,135, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 524 points to 33,826.
Rate hike expected despite a slowing US GDP estimateLater tonight, US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.6% to 2.0%. But with a high inflation rate and multiple Fed officials proposing more rate hikes, the US is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
USD/CAD edged up 8 pips to 1.3635, and USD/JPY slipped 10 pips to 133.66. EUR/USD rose 67 pips to 1.1040, and GBP/USD increased 58 pips to 1.2467. AUD/USD declined 28 pips to 0.6598.
Spot gold fell HKEX:8 to HKEX:1 ,989.4 an ounce. Although US crude-oil stockpiles decreased by 5.05 million barrels, WTI oil futures closed $2.70 lower at $74.38 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum both recovered quickly to HKEX:28 ,862.0 and HKEX:1 ,917.07 respectively.
In response to Microsoft's impressive earnings report, its stock prices surged 7.24%, leading the Nasdaq 100 to advance 81 points to 12,806. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 slid 15 points to 4,055, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 228 points to 33,301.
Military conflict in Sudan escalatesThe clash between two major military leaders in Sudan led to a massive evacuation of foreign diplomats and residents. Locals and refugees from other countries will have to seek shelter elsewhere.
Growing instability saw spot gold recover HKEX:6 to HKEX:1 ,989.11 an ounce, and WTI oil futures edge up $0.89 to $78.76 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell to HKEX:27 ,409.0 and HKEX:1 ,836.16 respectively.
The German business climate index recorded smaller growth than Mitrade's estimates, increasing from 93.2 in March to 93.6 in April. EUR/USD climbed 54 pips to 1.1041. GBP/USD added 39 pips to 1.2482, and AUD/USD moved up 6 pips to 0.6696. USD/CAD slipped 2 pips to 1.3537, and USD/JPY closed 7 pips higher at 134.22.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 66 points to 33,875, and the S&P 500 gained 3 points to 4,137. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 31 points to 12,969.
Gold price slips amidst rate hike fearsAs recent inflation levels fail to meet major central banks’ targets, investors expect further interest rate increases. After hitting a near-record high, spot gold plunged HKEX:17 to HKEX:1 ,983.64 an ounce. WTI oil futures edged up $0.50 to $77.87 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently trading lower at HKEX:27 ,724.0 and HKEX:1 ,870.79 respectively.
Later tonight, Mitrade expects the German business climate index to rise from 93.3 in March to 94.0. EUR/USD then added 20 pips to 1.0987, and GBP/USD slid 13 pips to 1.2443.
AUD/USD fell 50 pips to 0.6690. Markets in Australia and New Zealand will be closed tomorrow for Anzac Day. USD/CAD climbed 65 pips to 1.3539, while USD/JPY moved down 8 pips to 134.15.
The Nasdaq 100 gained 14 points to 13,000, and the S&P 500 closed 3 points higher at 4,133. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 22 points to 33,808.
XAUUSD: Loosely supported on the Channel Up. Be prepared.Gold is at the bottom of a 1 month Channel Up, supported by the S1 (1,969) and on neutral 1D technicals (RSI = 50.472, MACD = 22.040, ADX = 18.645). The triple rejection on the 4H MA50 however on a 4 day span, illustrates substantial short term weakness that may be translated in a stronger correction under the Channel Up and to the 1D MA50.
We are prepared for both scenarios. Our buy trigger will be a candle closing over the 4H MA50 (hasn't happened since April 14th) and we will target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 2,070). On the other hand, a closing under the S1 (and as a result the Channel Up) and the 4H MA200 will be our sell trigger and we will short near the S2 (TP = 1,940).
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Tesla tumbles after disappointing earnings Tesla's stock price dropped 9.75% to $162.99, as quarterly earnings of $23.3 billion fell short of Mitrade's estimates. Meanwhile, the SpaceX rocket test flight had positive feedback despite exploding before reaching orbit.
The Nasdaq 100 declined 102 points to 12,985. The S&P 500 declined 24 points to 4,129, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 110 points to 33,786.
EUR/USD added 13 pips to 1.0967, and AUD/USD gained 27 pips to 0.6740. Although UK retail sales data is predicted to contract by 0.5%, GBP/USD moved up 5 pips to 1.2443. USD/CAD advanced 14 pips to 1.3474, and USD/JPY dropped 46 pips to 134.23.
Spot gold recovered $10.05 to HKEX:2 ,004.81 an ounce, and WTI oil futures slid $1.87 to $77.37 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading lower at HKEX:28 ,243.0 and HKEX:1 ,944.59 respectively.
UK inflation remains above 10%The UK's year-on-year inflation rate in March slowed from 10.4% to 10.1%, higher than the expected 9.8%. On the other hand, the Eurozone year-on-year increase remained at 6.9%. The persistently high price levels are likely to convince major central banks to keep raising interest rates.
GBP/USD then added 17 pips to 1.2438, and EUR/USD fell 17 pips to 1.0954. AUD/USD slid 9 pips to 0.6713. USD/CAD advanced 79 pips to 1.3460, and USD/JPY gained 60 pips to 134.69.
Spot gold fluctuated around the HKEX:2 ,000 level, closing $10.6 lower at HKEX:1 ,994.76 an ounce. WTI oil futures fell $1.66 to $79.24 despite US crude oil inventories dropping by over 4.5 million barrels. Bitcoin and Ethereum declined to HKEX:28 ,998.0 and HKEX:1 ,953.40 respectively.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.35 points to 4,154, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3 points to 13,088. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 79 points to 33,897.
Slower inflation expected in the UK and Europe Later tonight, annual inflation levels in the UK and the Eurozone have projected slowdowns to 9.8% and 6.9% respectively. Meanwhile, GBP/USD rose 50 pips to 1.2424, and EUR/USD gained 45 pips to 1.0971.
Canada’s month-on-month core inflation readings for March CPI recorded a 0.6% increase, higher than Mitrade's projections of 0.4%. USD/CAD then slid 5 pips to 1.3387, and USD/JPY fell 37 pips to 134.09. AUD/USD added 22 pips to 0.6722.
Spot gold closed HKEX:10 lower at HKEX:2 ,005.33 an ounce, and WTI oil futures edged up $0.07 to $80.90 a barrel. Bitcoin regained the HKEX:30 ,000 level, currently trading at HKEX:30 ,311.0, and Ethereum climbed to HKEX:2 ,098.34.
Major US indices closed with minor fluctuations, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 10 points to 33,976. The S&P 500 increased 3 points to 4,154, and the Nasdaq 100 increased 4 points to 13,091.
The dollar recovers and sends spot gold below $2,000The US dollar and Treasury yields continued their recovery run supported by resilient economic data and hawkish Fed speaks. The dollar index is trading higher at 102.05, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.591%. This has diluted the yellow metal’s safe-haven demand, with spot gold declining HKEX:9 to HKEX:1 ,995.18 an ounce.
Later tonight, Mitrade expects the UK Claimant Count Change in March will jump to 10,200. GBP/USD then dropped 39 pips to 1.2374. EUR/USD fell 74 pips to 1.0926, and AUD/USD slid 8 pips to 0.6700. USD/CAD added 31 pips to 1.3392, and USD/JPY climbed 69 pips to 134.46.
WTI crude futures closed $1.60 lower at $80.83 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum slowed to HKEX:29 ,331.0 and HKEX:2 ,069.37 respectively.
The S&P 500 advanced 13 points to 4,151, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 100 points to 33,987. The Nasdaq 100 rose 8 points to 13,087.
XAUUSD Buy signal on SupportXAUUSD hit Support (1) at 1981 and the current reaction is a rebound.
The long term pattern is a Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price is closing over Support (1).
2. Sell if it closes under.
Targets:
1. 2050 (Resistance 1)
2. 1950 (Support 2 and MA200 (4h)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is testing the bottom of the Channel Down. This strengthens the probability of a rebound (buy signal).
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Growing Fed hike expectations strengthen the greenbackAlthough many major central banks have stopped raising interest rates in 2023, the US Federal Reserve is determined to keep increasing rates until meeting the inflation target of 2.0%. Recent hawkish comments from Fed officials and resilient retail sales data have increased the chances for more rate hikes in the incoming months.
The US dollar strengthened against its peers. USD/CAD rose 31 pips to 1.3361, and USD/JPY jumped 121 pips to 133.77. EUR/USD declined 44 pips to 1.1000, and GBP/USD plunged 107 pips to 1.2413. AUD/USD fell 73 pips to 0.6708.
Spot gold dropped HKEX:36 to HKEX:2 ,004.26 an ounce, and WTI oil futures edged up $0.27 to $82.43 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped to HKEX:29 ,937.0 and HKEX:2 ,090.69 respectively.
The S&P 500 slipped 8 points to 4,137, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 29 points to 13,079. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 143 points to 33,886.
XAUUSD Still bullish and targeting 2180Gold/ XAUUSD has many puzzled today with its strong decline, however the long term trend is unchanged inside the large Channel Up.
The shorter Channel Up, according to the 1day RSI also, resembles the pattern of November/December 2022. Both formed after a +10.50% price increase. The latter went on to complete a +21.20% rally from the Double Bottom (another shared characteristic).
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, buy and target 2180.
Previous chart:
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XAUUSD: Structural buy opportunityXAUUSD hit the bottom of the 1 month Channel Up with 4H technicals turning neutral (RSI = 45.493, MACD = 5.690, ADX = 42.984). The 4H RSI hit the 3 week Support and this creates the ideal condition for a new short term buy. Target at least a +3.50% price increase (TP = 2,060).
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No monthly change in March UK GDP UK national production in March recorded zero percent growth and a 0.1% three-month increase. Meanwhile, GBP/USD advanced 39 pips to 1.2520.
EUR/USD climbed 55 pips to 1.1044, and AUD/USD surged 93 pips to 0.6781. US initial jobless claims increased to 239,000 in March, exceeding Mitrade's estimates of 232,000. USD/CAD plunged 104 pips to 1.333, and USD/JPY declined 64 pips to 132.56.
Spot gold rose HKEX:25 to HKEX:2 ,040.11 an ounce, reaching a 13-month high. WTI oil futures slipped $1.1 to $82.16 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading higher at HKEX:30 ,751.0 and HKEX:2 ,108.88 respectively.
The Nasdaq 100 increased 261 points to 13,109. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 383 points to 34,029, and the S&P 500 rose 54 points to 4,146.
Canada holds rates at 4.5% for the third monthThe Bank of Canada has maintained its interest rate at 4.50% for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, US inflation data are lower than expected, with the year-on-year inflation rate slowing from 6.0% to 5.0%. USD/CAD declined 28 pips to 1.3438, and USD/JPY fell 53 pips to 133.20.
EUR/USD rose 79 pips to 1.0989, and GBP/USD added 57 pips to 1.2481. Australia added 53,000 jobs in March, and AUD/USD increased 38 pips to 0.6688.
Spot gold climbed HKEX:11 to HKEX:2 ,014.99 an ounce, and WTI oil futures added $1.73 to $83.26 a barrel. Bitcoin slipped to HKEX:30 ,007.0, while Ethereum advanced to HKEX:1 ,905.54.
The Nasdaq 100 plunged 115 points to 12,848, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 38 points to 33,646. The S&P 500 slid 16 points to 4,091.