Rate hike expected despite a slowing US GDP estimateLater tonight, US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.6% to 2.0%. But with a high inflation rate and multiple Fed officials proposing more rate hikes, the US is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
USD/CAD edged up 8 pips to 1.3635, and USD/JPY slipped 10 pips to 133.66. EUR/USD rose 67 pips to 1.1040, and GBP/USD increased 58 pips to 1.2467. AUD/USD declined 28 pips to 0.6598.
Spot gold fell HKEX:8 to HKEX:1 ,989.4 an ounce. Although US crude-oil stockpiles decreased by 5.05 million barrels, WTI oil futures closed $2.70 lower at $74.38 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum both recovered quickly to HKEX:28 ,862.0 and HKEX:1 ,917.07 respectively.
In response to Microsoft's impressive earnings report, its stock prices surged 7.24%, leading the Nasdaq 100 to advance 81 points to 12,806. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 slid 15 points to 4,055, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 228 points to 33,301.
Commoditytrading
Military conflict in Sudan escalatesThe clash between two major military leaders in Sudan led to a massive evacuation of foreign diplomats and residents. Locals and refugees from other countries will have to seek shelter elsewhere.
Growing instability saw spot gold recover HKEX:6 to HKEX:1 ,989.11 an ounce, and WTI oil futures edge up $0.89 to $78.76 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell to HKEX:27 ,409.0 and HKEX:1 ,836.16 respectively.
The German business climate index recorded smaller growth than Mitrade's estimates, increasing from 93.2 in March to 93.6 in April. EUR/USD climbed 54 pips to 1.1041. GBP/USD added 39 pips to 1.2482, and AUD/USD moved up 6 pips to 0.6696. USD/CAD slipped 2 pips to 1.3537, and USD/JPY closed 7 pips higher at 134.22.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 66 points to 33,875, and the S&P 500 gained 3 points to 4,137. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 31 points to 12,969.
Gold price slips amidst rate hike fearsAs recent inflation levels fail to meet major central banks’ targets, investors expect further interest rate increases. After hitting a near-record high, spot gold plunged HKEX:17 to HKEX:1 ,983.64 an ounce. WTI oil futures edged up $0.50 to $77.87 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently trading lower at HKEX:27 ,724.0 and HKEX:1 ,870.79 respectively.
Later tonight, Mitrade expects the German business climate index to rise from 93.3 in March to 94.0. EUR/USD then added 20 pips to 1.0987, and GBP/USD slid 13 pips to 1.2443.
AUD/USD fell 50 pips to 0.6690. Markets in Australia and New Zealand will be closed tomorrow for Anzac Day. USD/CAD climbed 65 pips to 1.3539, while USD/JPY moved down 8 pips to 134.15.
The Nasdaq 100 gained 14 points to 13,000, and the S&P 500 closed 3 points higher at 4,133. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 22 points to 33,808.
XAUUSD: Loosely supported on the Channel Up. Be prepared.Gold is at the bottom of a 1 month Channel Up, supported by the S1 (1,969) and on neutral 1D technicals (RSI = 50.472, MACD = 22.040, ADX = 18.645). The triple rejection on the 4H MA50 however on a 4 day span, illustrates substantial short term weakness that may be translated in a stronger correction under the Channel Up and to the 1D MA50.
We are prepared for both scenarios. Our buy trigger will be a candle closing over the 4H MA50 (hasn't happened since April 14th) and we will target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 2,070). On the other hand, a closing under the S1 (and as a result the Channel Up) and the 4H MA200 will be our sell trigger and we will short near the S2 (TP = 1,940).
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Tesla tumbles after disappointing earnings Tesla's stock price dropped 9.75% to $162.99, as quarterly earnings of $23.3 billion fell short of Mitrade's estimates. Meanwhile, the SpaceX rocket test flight had positive feedback despite exploding before reaching orbit.
The Nasdaq 100 declined 102 points to 12,985. The S&P 500 declined 24 points to 4,129, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 110 points to 33,786.
EUR/USD added 13 pips to 1.0967, and AUD/USD gained 27 pips to 0.6740. Although UK retail sales data is predicted to contract by 0.5%, GBP/USD moved up 5 pips to 1.2443. USD/CAD advanced 14 pips to 1.3474, and USD/JPY dropped 46 pips to 134.23.
Spot gold recovered $10.05 to HKEX:2 ,004.81 an ounce, and WTI oil futures slid $1.87 to $77.37 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading lower at HKEX:28 ,243.0 and HKEX:1 ,944.59 respectively.
UK inflation remains above 10%The UK's year-on-year inflation rate in March slowed from 10.4% to 10.1%, higher than the expected 9.8%. On the other hand, the Eurozone year-on-year increase remained at 6.9%. The persistently high price levels are likely to convince major central banks to keep raising interest rates.
GBP/USD then added 17 pips to 1.2438, and EUR/USD fell 17 pips to 1.0954. AUD/USD slid 9 pips to 0.6713. USD/CAD advanced 79 pips to 1.3460, and USD/JPY gained 60 pips to 134.69.
Spot gold fluctuated around the HKEX:2 ,000 level, closing $10.6 lower at HKEX:1 ,994.76 an ounce. WTI oil futures fell $1.66 to $79.24 despite US crude oil inventories dropping by over 4.5 million barrels. Bitcoin and Ethereum declined to HKEX:28 ,998.0 and HKEX:1 ,953.40 respectively.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.35 points to 4,154, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3 points to 13,088. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 79 points to 33,897.
Slower inflation expected in the UK and Europe Later tonight, annual inflation levels in the UK and the Eurozone have projected slowdowns to 9.8% and 6.9% respectively. Meanwhile, GBP/USD rose 50 pips to 1.2424, and EUR/USD gained 45 pips to 1.0971.
Canada’s month-on-month core inflation readings for March CPI recorded a 0.6% increase, higher than Mitrade's projections of 0.4%. USD/CAD then slid 5 pips to 1.3387, and USD/JPY fell 37 pips to 134.09. AUD/USD added 22 pips to 0.6722.
Spot gold closed HKEX:10 lower at HKEX:2 ,005.33 an ounce, and WTI oil futures edged up $0.07 to $80.90 a barrel. Bitcoin regained the HKEX:30 ,000 level, currently trading at HKEX:30 ,311.0, and Ethereum climbed to HKEX:2 ,098.34.
Major US indices closed with minor fluctuations, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 10 points to 33,976. The S&P 500 increased 3 points to 4,154, and the Nasdaq 100 increased 4 points to 13,091.
The dollar recovers and sends spot gold below $2,000The US dollar and Treasury yields continued their recovery run supported by resilient economic data and hawkish Fed speaks. The dollar index is trading higher at 102.05, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.591%. This has diluted the yellow metal’s safe-haven demand, with spot gold declining HKEX:9 to HKEX:1 ,995.18 an ounce.
Later tonight, Mitrade expects the UK Claimant Count Change in March will jump to 10,200. GBP/USD then dropped 39 pips to 1.2374. EUR/USD fell 74 pips to 1.0926, and AUD/USD slid 8 pips to 0.6700. USD/CAD added 31 pips to 1.3392, and USD/JPY climbed 69 pips to 134.46.
WTI crude futures closed $1.60 lower at $80.83 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum slowed to HKEX:29 ,331.0 and HKEX:2 ,069.37 respectively.
The S&P 500 advanced 13 points to 4,151, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 100 points to 33,987. The Nasdaq 100 rose 8 points to 13,087.
XAUUSD Buy signal on SupportXAUUSD hit Support (1) at 1981 and the current reaction is a rebound.
The long term pattern is a Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price is closing over Support (1).
2. Sell if it closes under.
Targets:
1. 2050 (Resistance 1)
2. 1950 (Support 2 and MA200 (4h)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is testing the bottom of the Channel Down. This strengthens the probability of a rebound (buy signal).
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Growing Fed hike expectations strengthen the greenbackAlthough many major central banks have stopped raising interest rates in 2023, the US Federal Reserve is determined to keep increasing rates until meeting the inflation target of 2.0%. Recent hawkish comments from Fed officials and resilient retail sales data have increased the chances for more rate hikes in the incoming months.
The US dollar strengthened against its peers. USD/CAD rose 31 pips to 1.3361, and USD/JPY jumped 121 pips to 133.77. EUR/USD declined 44 pips to 1.1000, and GBP/USD plunged 107 pips to 1.2413. AUD/USD fell 73 pips to 0.6708.
Spot gold dropped HKEX:36 to HKEX:2 ,004.26 an ounce, and WTI oil futures edged up $0.27 to $82.43 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped to HKEX:29 ,937.0 and HKEX:2 ,090.69 respectively.
The S&P 500 slipped 8 points to 4,137, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 29 points to 13,079. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 143 points to 33,886.
XAUUSD Still bullish and targeting 2180Gold/ XAUUSD has many puzzled today with its strong decline, however the long term trend is unchanged inside the large Channel Up.
The shorter Channel Up, according to the 1day RSI also, resembles the pattern of November/December 2022. Both formed after a +10.50% price increase. The latter went on to complete a +21.20% rally from the Double Bottom (another shared characteristic).
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, buy and target 2180.
Previous chart:
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XAUUSD: Structural buy opportunityXAUUSD hit the bottom of the 1 month Channel Up with 4H technicals turning neutral (RSI = 45.493, MACD = 5.690, ADX = 42.984). The 4H RSI hit the 3 week Support and this creates the ideal condition for a new short term buy. Target at least a +3.50% price increase (TP = 2,060).
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No monthly change in March UK GDP UK national production in March recorded zero percent growth and a 0.1% three-month increase. Meanwhile, GBP/USD advanced 39 pips to 1.2520.
EUR/USD climbed 55 pips to 1.1044, and AUD/USD surged 93 pips to 0.6781. US initial jobless claims increased to 239,000 in March, exceeding Mitrade's estimates of 232,000. USD/CAD plunged 104 pips to 1.333, and USD/JPY declined 64 pips to 132.56.
Spot gold rose HKEX:25 to HKEX:2 ,040.11 an ounce, reaching a 13-month high. WTI oil futures slipped $1.1 to $82.16 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading higher at HKEX:30 ,751.0 and HKEX:2 ,108.88 respectively.
The Nasdaq 100 increased 261 points to 13,109. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 383 points to 34,029, and the S&P 500 rose 54 points to 4,146.
Canada holds rates at 4.5% for the third monthThe Bank of Canada has maintained its interest rate at 4.50% for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, US inflation data are lower than expected, with the year-on-year inflation rate slowing from 6.0% to 5.0%. USD/CAD declined 28 pips to 1.3438, and USD/JPY fell 53 pips to 133.20.
EUR/USD rose 79 pips to 1.0989, and GBP/USD added 57 pips to 1.2481. Australia added 53,000 jobs in March, and AUD/USD increased 38 pips to 0.6688.
Spot gold climbed HKEX:11 to HKEX:2 ,014.99 an ounce, and WTI oil futures added $1.73 to $83.26 a barrel. Bitcoin slipped to HKEX:30 ,007.0, while Ethereum advanced to HKEX:1 ,905.54.
The Nasdaq 100 plunged 115 points to 12,848, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 38 points to 33,646. The S&P 500 slid 16 points to 4,091.
Oil continues to test key resistance after the OPEC surge. Oil continues to hold firm on Wednesday after a strong surge on Tuesday that saw close to two percent added after sellers looked to test the new floor set up by buyers after the stunning gains seen after OPEC's surprise production cuts.
Since the news price has sat in a range between $79.65 and HKEX:81 , maybe we would have seen a new test lower to see how firm the gap was. No, buyers made a new push yesterday, breaking out of the mini range, but now continue to be held back at key resistance.
Early in the LON session, buyers are trying to push, but resistance remains in play for now. Looking at yesterday's momentum, if we can see it continue, could this be the move that finally clears this level of resistance? We feel that if we do see a break, this could open up buying, and there's a chance we could see the low 90s possibly tested.
The drivers behind the rally are firm, but traders will need to keep an eye on the US response if we see oil trading back at certain levels, as this will start to impact their continuing war with inflation.
What do you think? Could we see USOUSD trading back at HKEX:83 - HKEX:85 this week or next?
Good trading.
More easing expected in US inflationAs the market awaits tonight’s US inflation data, investors continue to anticipate further easing in price levels, with year-on-year readings in March dropping from 6.0% to 5.2%. Meanwhile, the greenback weakened against other major currencies. EUR/USD climbed 51 pips to 1.0910, and GBP/USD advanced 43 pips to 1.2424. AUD/USD added 13 pips to 0.6650.
The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision this evening, with Mitrade anticipating no changes to the current 4.50% rate level. USD/CAD declined 60 pips to 1.3466, and USD/JPY edged up 5 pips to 133.65.
Spot gold gained HKEX:12 to HKEX:2 ,003.61 an ounce, and WTI oil futures increased $1.79 to $81.53 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped to HKEX:30 ,143.0 and HKEX:1 ,881.22 respectively.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 98 points to 33,684, and the S&P 500 slid 1 point to 4,108. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 87 points to 12,964.
US Nonfarm Payrolls underperform first time in 12 monthsThe March readings for US Nonfarm Payrolls slightly missed Mitrade's estimates at 236,000, while the unemployment rate lost 0.1% to 3.5%. Although the results ended a 12-month streak for an overachieving labor market, they still indicate a resilient US market. On Wednesday night, the year-on-year inflation rate for March is expected to slow down from 6.0% to 5.2%.
EUR/USD declined to 1.0834, then recovered to 1.0859. GBP/USD and AUD/USD both fell over 30 pips to 1.2381 and 0.6637 respectively. USD/CAD closed 6 pips lower at 1.3506, and USD/JPY surged over 140 pips to a week high of 133.60.
Spot gold dropped $15 to HKEX:1 ,991.35 an ounce. WTI crude futures briefly slipped below HKEX:80 to $79.74 a barrel. Bitcoin just rose past the HKEX:30 ,000 level to HKEX:30 ,331.0, and Ethereum is currently trading higher at 1,932.21.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 101 points to 33,586, and the S&P 500 edged up 4 points to 4,109. The Nasdaq 100 slid 11 points to 13,051.
WTI CRUDE OIL Top formation like all others since DecemberWTI Crude Oil is forming a Top pattern, which is similar to all peaks since December.
The RSI (4h) crossed below the Rising Support, which is the first sell signal on peak formations.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 74.00 (top of the Symmetric Support Zone).
Tips:
1. Four out of five previous Tops formed around a Golden Cross (4h) pattern. Such was formed 2 days ago.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
US ADP job report disappoints investorsThe private report on the US labor market indicated only 145,000 jobs were added in March, considerably lower than Mitrade's expected figure of 200,000. As a result, the market worries over Friday’s official nonfarm payrolls report.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD declined 52 pips to 1.0901, and GBP/USD fell 44 pips to 1.2457. AUD/USD lost 31 pips to 0.672. USD/CAD added 13 pips to 1.3458, though USD/JPY slid 36 pips to 131.35.
Spot gold suffered minor losses at $2,020.67 an ounce. WTI oil futures closed just lower at $80.61 a barrel, now trading at $79.90. Bitcoin and Ethereum returned previous gains, currently at $28,032.0 and $1,898.28 respectively.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major US index to close higher yesterday, advancing 80 points to 33,482. The Nasdaq 100 plunged 132 points to 12,967, and the S&P 500 slipped 10 points to 4,090.
XAUUSD Sell the top of the Channel UpXAUUSD crossed over the Fibonacci 0.786 level today and is approaching the top of the two week Channel Up.
This is a good opportunity to start placing short term sell positions targeting the MA50 (4h).
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price and as long as it stays inside the Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 1980 (the MA50 4h).
Tips:
1. RSI (4h) hit its Rising Support. This adds more selling bias as last time it did so on the Falling Resistance, it dropeed to the bottom of the Channel Up.
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Australia expected not to raise rates againLater today, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision. As the market expected yet another no-change decision, AUD/USD surged 100 pips to 0.6785. EUR/USD advanced 56 pips to 1.0895, and GBP/USD increased 78 pips to 1.2411.
The US JOLTs Job Openings will also be available tonight, with Mitrade anticipating job supply falling to 10.4 million in February. USD/CAD fell 80 pips to 1.3435, and USD/JPY dropped 31 pips to 132.41.
Spot gold briefly crossed the $2,000 level and closed $15 higher at $1,984.56 an ounce. WTI crude futures added $4.75 to $80.42 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading higher at $27,744.0 and $1,806.26 respectively.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 327 points to 33,601, and the S&P 500 edged up 15 points to 4,124, though the Nasdaq 100 slipped 33 points to close at 13,148.