Commodoties
XLE to hit $130 by Jan 2025 a 300% gain from 2020 lowsCheck out the two trends prior to this. Clearly, you can see the run of over 300% that was 6 years long and then another 5-year trend at 142% gain. I believe we have entered commodities run and companies that produce oil and sell gasoline or diesel are going to benefit hugely. I am making a call that by January of 2025 we will see XLE at $130. Even if it doesn't, WTI Crude will hit that $130 mark. Two calls right there I think are very realistic repeating that 5-6 year trend which also matches the first 300% gain although the climb may be steeper. I think that climb coincides with how much inflation we have so I believe it's still a fair analysis overall.
If you have not watched my recent video on hyperinflation, I suggest you do. At least go compare a 1month chart of the M2 money supply (M2SL) to the SPX. Hand a hand increases and parabolic running back to 1960. It looks to be sometime around 2025 we hit our first level of lift-off, straight up as the curve stops and begins to head to the moon. This happens to land around my chart here with XLE being at $130 by 2025. After 2025 all bets are off. WE could be heading into a massive inflationary person and it could be a billion per share or something crazy. That number won't matter anymore of course as it's only nominal.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Week 38 – Bears gaining momentum.In our previous forecast, we anticipated Gold to finish the correction and reach the resistance area. Instead, the price fell into a deeper pullback.
In the coming week, we are expecting the price to reach the confluence between the trendline and the resistance and go for one more low.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 38 – Indecision territory.Last week, the pair broke the trendline and stopped around the resistance level, despite our forecast in which we expected the price to fall from the upper channel line.
For next week, we will study the price action and decide whether the price will continue the bull run, or if it will drop. If we get a sideways move, then the chances are that we will continue the uptrend. If we get a strong bearish reaction, followed by a small correction, then we will head towards the support.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Week 27 – Edging closer to a new drop.In our previous forecast, we correctly anticipated Gold to reach the resistance area and resume the bearish trend. Instead, the price decided to drop and quickly reversed in what it looks to have been a stop hunt.
In the coming week, we are expecting the price to reach the resistance area before resuming the bearish trend and break the support.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
I think that UUUU is now in Markdown phaseI think that the labor market is now getting better, national mask mandates are lifting, sanctions on covid are lifting.
Mines are going to go back to work, more labor available, newer machines with grants and eco bills.
I think that the cost of UUUU will go Down, due to uranium supply re opening, and technical data. this will persist until maybe October in the winter months when energy is in high demand and labor is more expensive.
Metals - ABMLModel has given entry signals for American Battery Metals Corporation:
- American Battery Metals Corporation engages in the exploration, mining, extraction, and recycling of battery metals. It owns 647 placer mining claims on approximately 12,940 acres in the Western Nevada Basin, situated in Railroad Valley in Nye County, Nevada; and a 120-acre parcel of private property with water rights, in the town of Currant, NV near Railroad Valley.
- The company is focused on creating a vertically-integrated lithium company in three ways: environmentally-sustainable exploration and mining, green extraction processes and battery metals recycling.
- Lithium ion batteries are critical in the renewable energy industry.
- We are very excited about opportunities in the commodities sector, as we believe a macro turn is approaching in the nearest future.
- We are bullish on the clean energy and ESG sectors.
- Technically in a Wyckoff accumulation structure with a spring, possibly testing the channel top.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
Gold Good Shorting oppourtunity?First of All thumbs up to all the traders who followed my call to sell gold from 1743-1752 area all the way up to 1680-1670. Currently hedge funds from January has closed massive long positions from 349,946 to all the way up-to 262,774. As a result we can see massive downtrend on gold so far.
At the moment Gold had a pretty big crash from all the way from 1752-55 area to 1675 bullish reversal zone and it is pretty natural to expect a strong correction at this point followed by Biden US economic plan. Now the gold is retesting the strong selling zone 1715-1722 where we can see some bear pressure. Above 1728 is a bit risky but I think it is very less likely because of bearish pressure.
Technically Gold has just retraced to 61.8% of fib level at 1713.91 of daily impulse zone which is current selling resistance at 1711-1715 if broken above 1722 is the next resistance where we can expect consolidation between 1706-1722 area.
Overview: I am operating my selling orders from 1715 and 1705 with SL 1728 as I have already achieved twice my Monthly Target A small loss would not bother me much . My Initial target remains the same 1670 whereas 1650, 1620, 1588 are my follow up targets . I will be only looking for longing opportunities from 1588 area.
GOLD Will this be the longest Bull Cycle in history?Gold has started a new Bull Cycle (since the late 2015 bottom) that was confirmed after it broke above the $1380 5-year Resistance in mid 2019. The U.S.-China trade war peaking at that time and recently the massive money stimulus from the Federal Reserve creating inflation , Gold has already reached new All Time Highs.
The recent 2 month pull-back shouldn't worry long-term investors. We have entered a new era in money supply and this alone can be enough to sustain this new Bull Cycle to extreme Highs.
On this chart, I plotted the previous two Bull Cycles (1976 - 1980 and 2000 - 2011) on the current one. We see that the first one (1976 - 1980) was far more aggressive, reaching higher (marginally) but being shorter (considerably) than the second (2000 - 2011). The current Cycle (2015 - now) seems so far to be like the second and if it wasn't for the U.S. - China tensions and now the massive COVID stimulus, it would have been even less aggressive. As soon as new balances are found, we can argue that this Cycle too might reach (marginally) lower Highs than the previous too, while being longer. Of course it doesn't have to be symmetrical as my projection shows but that serves as a good illustration to make my point reach out.
That is the "Theory of Diminishing Returns" on economic asset classes that rise through time, and is the same as the one I have published on Bitcoin a few years back. That theory suggests that no matter how strongly an asset rises through time, every time will be less aggressive than the previous one.
Do you agree with this? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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P.S. For those who recognize the analysis, this is a repost of the idea below which I published on September 27 and got deleted. I am publishing it again in order to be used for future reference reasons:
XAUUSD Sell SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bearish as the price hit the Higher High trend-line of the Channel Up with the RSI also reaching the Resistance.
Target: 1,780 (near the 4H MA50 and Higher Low trend-line of June 15) and 1,770 in extension (Higher Low trend-line of the Channel Up).
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
XAU/USD; GOLD Analysis Via 4hr/TF Hey guys, recently the market has been extremely unpredictable considering current market conditions and Its impact on a wide range of things such as Stocks, Commodities and Foreign Exchange etc.
This is my first analysis conducted on a commodity; XAU/USD which should be really interesting!
Please do not forget to follow/like my content for more trade ideas and possible trade signals/opportunities.
As we begin trading for the first time in June, we notice the market slowly beginning to recover as the COVID-19 pandemic eases worldwide. Recently, we had oil prices decline to a negative figure which we've never seen since 1995, due to a contraction in global demand for oil. Although, as markets slowly began to make a recovery, oil prices have climbed back up towards its short term average price.
Now, let's talk GOLD!
Since the 1st Feb, Gold has rallied to near historic highs significantly from 1200.000 to a current high of 1742.000
According to technical analysis, we identify a source of exponential growth particularly on the Monthly given higher highs and higher lows. In regards to our 4/hr time frame, from the 18th May bullish structure was broken as sellers began entering the market, driving price towards a descending bearish structure of consolidation. Ultimately, we see that the descending order of bearish structure was broken as there was an increased amount of buy pressure @1700.000, where more buyers decided to enter the market. Despite being in between the descending market structure, we see that price rejected and price failed to pullback down, breaking above the SMA and our point of resistance @1718.545
With price breaking our second "Purple vertical line" indicating our point of resistance, we now expect it to continue to surge upwards towards our previous high, which ultimately would be our new level of support if price further escalates above that level.
GOLD XAU ShortThe craft of trading is like solving the greatest financial puzzles using mathematical equations and behavioural structures. F
Gold has been one of my favourite markets to trade due to its structure, and precious ability to act as a safe haven when everything looks gloomy.
I am not painting gloom as yet, but will definitely capitalise on the next drop. Don't miss it!!!!!
We have what looks to be a 3-3-5 regular flat forming on a daily time frame, and a subway 4 correctly completing. A break below this trend line and gold could give back 2017 gains touching its January 2017 open of $1,150, coincidentally this price also sits around clusters of major Fibonacci levels.
Preferred Yellow: At any point, price down rapidly fall from here. If the DXY (US Dollar Basket) recovers, this will support the drop. Watch the RSI to cross.
Teal Projection: Second scenario would be one more wave up to extreme level. then fall.
If GOLD can follow this structure and complete the arrows, I will be EXTREMELY BULLISH in 2019 on gold, gold stocks and gold ETFS as this could signal the recession.
CAN WE STILL GO LOWER ON WHEAT?Alright, so I've been looking at wheat for some time now, and to be totally honest I don't actually think that we're done from a selling stand point. I believe that prices could still go lower, potentially near the 4.400/4.200 Region.
ALSO!
If this happens I'll be more than ready to buy the reversal up to highs of 4.700 after our bear run!
TP: 4.400/4.200