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BTCUSD - 2013 vs 2021 - More similaritiesHi and thanks for visiting, glad you're taking the time to read my analysis. If you are familiar with my previous analysis, you know I pointed out that there are a lot of similarities between the 2013 and 2021 bull runs. If you're not familiar with it, I suggest you go and have a look at it here: Now I found even more similarities : The time it took for the 2013 mid-cycle high to be broken was pretty long, 30 weeks (7 months) to be precise. Now look at the 2021 cycle, the 30th candle after the mid-cycle high is the one that broke above it. In 2013, after breaking above that mid-cycle high, it took only 3 weeks to reach the 2013 ATH, reaching the 2.272 fib extension. Does that mean that we will see the same now in 2021? To be honest, I doubt that we'll move up that fast, the 2.272 fib extension is around the 200k USD mark, and I don't think we'll reach that by the end of November. So, keeping that in mind, I think it's more realistic to see a price around 100k by the end of the year, and potentially reaching that 200k level in Q2 of 2022. For what it's worth, I'm not a financial advisor and this analysis/projection is just my view of what I think is possible. If you want to put money on the line, better do your own research. So, what do you think? Where do you think bitcoin will take us by the end of the year and what do you think is going to be the cycle top? I'm looking forward to your comments and as always, if you liked this idea, a 👍🏽 would be appreciated.
BNC:BLXLong
by Nico.Muselle
23
🔥 ICP Copying SHIBA? Massive Break Out PotentialIn this analysis I want to dig deeper into a recent discovery I made. When laying the charts next to each other there are several similarities. 1) When the tokens first started trading on Binance, there was a huge, multi week sell-off that occurred. Both tokens lost 80%-90% of their first daily closing value 2) Both tokens had a very long period of accumulation. During this accumulation period price action was very limited and volume was low. 3) SHIBA saw one major candle on Oct 4th that launched the price out of this accumulation period. This candle was the starting moment of an almost 600% rally. A candle like that for ICP could be the start of a rally like that. ICP is still in this period of accumulation. We saw some nice price action today, but nothing is signaling a break out of the accumulation period, yet. I'm waiting for a strong daily candle which will bring us above $80 before trying to ride the wave. The price has been suppressed for a very long time, so when the price finally goes it will explode to the upside. Naturally, this is a very speculative analysis. However, the similarities are certainly there. Keep an eye out for big daily ICP candles, since it might signal another "SHIBA-move". Happy trading!
Long
by FieryTrading
26
BTC price reversal: comparisonThis could be nothing. Perhaps too simplistic, but the recent rally ending in May looks eerily similar to this recent run. Comparing 1D between FEB and MAY with 12h between July and now. No Elliot/Wyckoff stuff here, simply annotating the tops for comparison. Apart from the price forming a very similar pattern, notice how the volume on both is decreasing and how similarly RSI is printed below their respective waves on both timeframes. I'd be looking for one or all of these to happen on the 12h in the next days/weeks: RSI crashing below 50 Break in market structure - forming a lower low RSI failing to break back above 50 - failing to re-establish the uptrend Forming a lower high (D) (ideally after LL is formed) If this would play out, it would support my previously shared long-term view on the weekly.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by S4nra
BTCUSD - 2013 vs 2021 - Similar or not?Hi guys, back with another Bitcoin publication after a couple of months of inactivity. Not because nothing happened, but because my previous analysis is still valid. Anyway, I thought I'd make a comparison between the 2013 and 2021 bull markets, as it is striking how similar they are. Let's start with sharing a screenshot of the 2013 bull run, some annotations that are important are made on the chart: Now let's put the 2021 bull cycle next to it, including annotations : Now let's see what are the similarities : Halving occured before previous ATH was broken No immediate effect after the halving, only a few weeks after Hardly any hesitation when breaking above previous ATH Rise to the 1.618 reverse fib extension without much troubles Decline to the 1.272 extension and bounce to the upside There are some differences too : The 2013 bull run took less time We did not break above the 1.618 fib yet in 2021 ❓ So why does the bull run take more time? The most obvious explanation is that the market has matured compared to 2013, we have BTC futures now that can temper price movement and overall I think people are a bit more cautious as well. ❓ What will happen IF we break above the 1.618 fib? If we break above that fib level, and history repeats itself, then a rally to the 2.272 fib, just like in 2013 would not be out of the ordinary. In case that happens, we'd see a high of around 200k USD. 💡 If and when we'll see that is the question, history doesn't always repeat itself, but if often rhymes. As to the when (in case it does happen of course), my best guess is that it would be in Q2 2022 .. But ... this is Bitcoin ... so anything can happen. 🤯 👦🏽Now it's your turn. What do you think of this analysis/comparison and what are your predictions? 💌 Share your thoughts in the comments below. Oh, and if you like this publication ... you know what to do 👍🏽 Thanks for reading! Constructive feedback always welcome! PS : if you found this interesting, you might want to have a look at my other publications below as well.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Nico.Muselle
175
I change my plan now in XRPIn this update, I wanting to share you a good data analytical that XRP it's up more than Cardano. For that, I want to buy some XRP coins just sell part of my Cardano coins to hold XRP until $3.60 USD. Because XRP could to continue exploding!!! I just sold 6000 ADA and I keep with 8,400 ADA in hold. This it's my plan. I will use 6,000 ADA that I get 10,077 XRP coins to hold until $3.60. I look one thing, XRP could to continue exploding so fast than Cardano and XRP will be so easily to reach the $2 dollar very soon!!! For that, I hold 10,076 XRP coins and I keep with 8,400 ADA coins. Now, I hope that based in this data analysis, I hope to sell all my XRP coins at $3.60 USD to take this profit, and I hope also that XRP will be run the price above of Cardano price. This it's an excellent way that I may to use XRP to invest and re-bought more Cardano approximately like 18,000 ADA to 22,000 ADA to hold. This it's my next plan to accumulate at least over 20,000 ADA as XRP will help us in this rally. Now, I reccomend to diversify your 50% in Cardano and 50% in XRP (just for limited time) to use XRP until $3.60 USD, then sell and use this money to re-bought more Cardano coins.
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
6
Bitcoin & Gold Comparison (Fractal)As I was searching for fractals/similar market structures as bitcoin is showing right now I came across this gold chart from the 1970's. Now when you take a look at this chart there are a lot of similarities. 1. You can see the first top which later on becomes the support area in both charts. 2. Then we see the market creating a top and failing to make a higher high on both charts. 3. On both charts we can see the market sell off after being unable to create a higher high. 4. We then find support on the area where the first top was created. Now I'm not saying BTC will do the same, but you have to admit this all looks very similar. On top of this you can see a very similar RSI structure and Ichimoku Cloud structure. After gold had found its support it went on with an even bigger rally, eventually setting in a real top for that bull cycle. You can see this on the gold chart if you zoom out. Now if Bitcoin will follow this fractal I believe we will see 100k+ prices within the next few months.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Decrazer
2
Gold vs BTC a historical comparisonA comparison of corrections for Gold and Btc, Gold as a less volatile and slower market takes around 8-12 times longer for the duration of submoves and also the bigger move. Similar steps are made, for example a few lows at a certain support before the 4th one breaks it and 2 more follow (for Gold). So far Btc follows a similar trend in terms of duration (if you divide by around 10) and price action (formation of lows). If this continues on it would give more room for lower lows and a time window towards August and September, which historically arent the strongest months for crypto as well. Then we could start a new uptrend from that floor.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Cofr4x_
Is #XRP About To Pull A #DOGE? Comparative Analysis: DOGEUSD has had an unthinkable bull run in 2021. With Memes, Elon's Tweets & No Utility. Doge 100xed and much more. Now If you consider the fact that #DOGE has Integrated with Flare this may explain the rally, but still at this moment #DOGE offers nothing for its holders & community other than gains. Now imagine what #XRP could do.... The world's most eco friendly crypto with the cheapest and fastest transactions. These simple facts lead me to believe #XRP will have a tremendous Future, and I would assume catchup & outperform #DOGE in the mid/long term! DYOR,NFA, Comment Below With Any Questions About This Idea, Follow For More!
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by contemplatingcrypto
7
Comparative Analysis Hints at Imminent Major Volatility IncreasePlease look at the picture below instead of the interactive chart, if the trend lines are not shown in the upper chart. This relates to the major indices, including CURRENCYCOM:US30 , TVC:SPX , and CURRENCYCOM:US100 . Here, I am focusing my analysis on Nasdaq100 (US100) given that it's the most volatile with the clearest price changes. For each of the past 3 major volatility events, the volatility started to increase with the price passing lower to the trend line. Yet, it didn't happen this time. Naturally, falling below a trend support should be a bearish signal, which usually triggers high volatility; however, for last year the market was fast upwards in an unprecedented way due to its reaction to the COVID19 crisis. The bullish run was slowed down by the correction last summer, which didn't trigger high volatility since the compensating trend was still faster than before. This time, it is different. Nasdaq100 has just started falling below the compensating trend and would probably find support in the pre-COVID19 trend. That is already triggering high volatility which would increase due to the fears of a crash and since many stocks are still over valued. I don't expect COVID19 levels, but I expect the value here to rise to the 30s in the very near future.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by MontyMacht
2
Strong Correlation with Market Brings Crypto SouthStarting from March last year, that is from the start of the massive bull after COVID-19 lockdowns, strong correlation can be seen between the crypto market and the stock market, not in magnitude, for sure, but definitely in direction. This wasn't the case before and this is the reason of the crypto revival to begin with. Few exceptions have been witnessed, most notably the GME squeeze which brought the stock market down but didn't affect crypto, and the recent BTC saturation, even if the directions can still be seen to be correlated. Another notable thing is that the recovery of the stock market is much faster than the crypto market. For the above reasons and based on what's going on right now (also see the linked ideas), I expect a south direction for all crypto assets till the end of the month, including Ethereum.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by MontyMacht
Back to Pre-COVID19 Trend. Price Target 25 for the Coming YearFundamental analysis indicates a rewarding buy and the past year wouldn't have disappointed, exceeding the market average with steady growth. However, as the market approached the GameStope Squeeze, amid the buying frenzy of the beginning of the year, SOLARIA hit the ceiling, tried to revive the trend again back in the day of the squeeze, and then gave up to a bearish trend ever since, now ongoing for 3 months. To analyze the effect and the prospects, I included her ESP35 index as an indicator of the local market ecosystem (please note that SOLARIA is not part of the index). I also included NYSE:BB to show the effect of the GameStop squeeze clearly. First thing to notice is the pre-VOVID19 trends: Blackberry was downwards with a relatively small angle. ESP35 was upwards but fell heavily as a result of the first lockdown. SOLARIA was up with a relatively small angle. After the first lockdown, and as the market gained momentum from the sudden fall of prices, SOLARIA was the largest and most steady gainer among the 3. Looking at the 3 graphs together, you can identify October 28, 2020 as the start of the major bullish trend that culminated with the GameStop squeeze and caused SOLARIA to lose half the gains of the prior year. Now, things look as follows: Blackberry trending downwards towards the pre-COVID19 levels, losing all the gains of the squeeze. ESP35 is trending upwards towards its towards the pre-COVID19 levels. SOLARIA, as the pitchfan shows, is currently leaving the COVID19 trend altogether, towards the original one of the smaller angle, as highlighted in the graph. Perhaps, the most important piece of detail here is that the RSI is not showing an oversell, which means that SOLARIA's price may continue slipping slowly without resistence until the COVID-19 effect is cancelled and it finds support in the original, pre-COVID19 trendline. I will pick something between the trendlines of the market and the pre-COVID19 level and go for a price target of 25 by April next year. Since the fundamentals are good, the price is at a low, and is cheap, a long-term long would make sense.
BME:SLRLong
by MontyMacht
Price target 0.6 for the coming daysIt might be hard to believe, but DOGE's price movement is more influenced by BTC's price than Elon's tweets. As the graph shows, there is still a tight coupling with the father of Crypto coins, albeit with a significant lag and much higher magnitudes. The lag almost disappeared in the current cycle, given the slowdown of BTC, and the magnitudes will probably suffer as well. Analyzing the recent trends and the Fibonnacci extensions, as well as looking at the higher Bollinger Band, you can see that the minimum target for the current bull is 0.5. This is also confirmed by the linear trend of the latest 2 highs. Yet, DOGE is rarely linear, and there's no reason to believe it would be this time either. Given that BTC would probably rise in the coming days, this would trigger higher rise in DOGE, reaching the Fib extension of 168.2% at 0.6 in this cycle. Eventually, the price would hit 1, most probably in the next bull cycle, even amid BTC saturation in the short-term, as long as ETH is pulling the market upwards.
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by MontyMacht
1
ETH Gravity is the Market not the GroundSince December, amid the beginning of the second lockdown, a second wave of raging bulls emerged, which culminated with the GameStop short squeeze. Ever since, the market is still in bullish mood, but the rage waned a little bit. This is the same when it comes to Crypto. As the comparison with SPX500 in the graph shows, there's a high degree of correlation, higher than was there before. That's because the dynamics driving the buying powers are the same, namely the surge of retail investment and the decreased spending. Now, if we compare ETH and BTC with SPX500, we would see that the rift happened in the past month only for BTC, while ETH was able to catch up with the market. This is because of the saturation of BTC around the 60K line (as I expected a couple of months ago) and the shift of many investors towards ETH and the alt coins. Putting this in context, one would stop wondering about ETH and start wondering about BTC. If ETH is following the market, then it's not defying gravity after all, since the market is the gravity inducer and not the ground. ETH price will fall soon with the imminent market correction, and BTC will catch up a little bit. They would meet somewhere in the middle, for now, until ETH soars again -- that is as long as the market is soaring. P.S. The graph is comparing prices with different scales. While this doesn't indicate the range of volatility, it is a very good indicator of the price tendencies and their correlations.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDShort
by MontyMacht
Hidden Periodicity and Pitchfork Suggests Short-Term SupportCAD is otally coupled with the price of oil, which is the major factor in this currency couple in recent times. The fact that EUR gained a lot during the first COVID-19 lockdown was mainly due to the price of oil going downwards. This was evident as well during the recent Suez canal blockage, which started a new bullish run for oil and a pull back for EURCAD. Yet, there is a hidden pattern at play here, one which can be shown using the sinusoidal of wavelength 5 months. The prices have been going up and down consistently through this pattern since a couple of years, mainly due to market dynamics, often augmented with political events. Following this pattern, you can see that we are approaching a crest in the sine wave, yet we are a law low point in the dominant bearish trend. Also, oil prices are increasing since the Suez crisis, which suggests that the pattern might not be followed. Yet, careful pitchfork analysis shows that we are currently at the line of support, which is also confirmed by the lower Bollinger band, as well as the almost over-selling RSI. The bearish trend doesn't seem to be waning anytime soon, since most of the action is take place in the lower side of the pitchfork. However, for the short-term, the price is going higher and now sounds like a good short-term buy.
Long
by MontyMacht
Is China's year of the Ox is in fact a Bear?Using my favorite chart for bear spotting, the 1W chart with Bollinger Bands, it is easy to find bears in sight below the BB median for for months. It is very rare that a month would pass with such a setting and the market doesn't turn bearish. It happened, though, recently with the COVID-19 lockdowns in March last year, and what we thought would be a bear turned out to be a raging ox. But what about the current downturn? Using Fib retracements across different timeframes, I did a comparison between the bull market of this and last year and the one from 2015, after which a bear sustained almost a year. I picked this bull and not the one in 2018 since the 2015 one is similar in structure and magnitude to the last one. Moreover, I added a retracement to the whole bull market since 2015 to have a clearer historical context. The purpose for using Fib retracements was to analyze the apparently hidden support we are currently at, which proved to be resilient so far. The analysis shows tight support across different retracements of last year's bull, tighter than the support at the similar range in 2015, which was easily missed. This could partially explain the current resilience but it doesn't rule out a sustained bear this year. The analysis also show main level, which, judging from the history of 2016's bear, proved pivotal. For this year, the pivotal points are the current 16900 range, 15900, 14900, and 13600, the last of which would probably be the end of the bear, if sustained. Fundamentals, of course, play a big role in the direction from the current level, and one of the biggest fundamentals is the global economy and its recovery. To see how tightly coupled the world economy is, you can add the OANDA:US30USD . DowJones is more stable than both China30 and NSDQ100, and usually acts as moving average of sorts. Here, you can view the China30's bear of 2016 as a mere correction towards DJ's level. If that's true this time as well, then we are in the sustainable level for now and the namesake of the year could prove truthful.
OANDA:CN50USD
by MontyMacht
Very Strong Sell Indicator for ETHBTC CrossWhether it is selling a CFD or merely moving money from ETH to BTC, the short term for this cross is pointing downwards. This is because ETH and BTC are at very different points in the day graph: * ETH is in overbuy range while BTC is almost touching the oversell. * ETH just hit the all-time high amid diminishing market, which increases the tension downwards. BTC hit a major low and appears to have found support, so up it should go. * BTC today tiuched the 1W median of the Bollinger Bands. Any sustainable move downwards would indicate a long bearish market, which is unlikely for now. ETH is on the median of the bands in the day graph, which is not a significant support. Make no mistake, the foreseeable future belongs to ETH in terms of growth. However, the short term, that is the few days to come, it's another story.
Short
by MontyMacht
2