IOTA compared to Ether's May 2017 RallySo, this is a completely new kind of analysis for me as I have never used the 'percent' option in the charts. I've seen posts where people have compared charts, but I can't figure out how to do so, so I apologize for the formatting. This also should not be taken as a prediction, merely a comparison of the two. In any case...
The top chart is, of course, IOTA. The one below is ETH's chart back in May of this year. I am actually unsure whether we are at the top of wave 3 or wave 5 for IOTA, so for comparison's sake will assume that it is currently at the top of its Wave 5.
Some very noticeable similarities between the two charts:
1. The rallies both took on roughly 150% gains between their second and third waves and 400% between their fourth and fifth. Both totaling 650%.
2. Wave 5 was the biggest leg. They both extended well beyond the 2.36 level .
3. The rallies both spanned roughly one month from the beginnning of wave 1 to the end of wave 5.
4. Ethereum's run was fueled heavily by news and announcements, the same currently goes for IOTA.
So, if IOTA's run is finished, we could expect a retracement back between .5 and .618. But what if we've only finished wave 3? Will IOTA see an even larger leap in its fifth wave? I sure hope so, but only time will tell. If so, we may see an ATH completely unprecedented. I don't want to even put a number on it at this point.
The one thing I do recommend is to hold if you are already holding, years if possible, and BTFD. This will likely be a huge contender for BCH's spot at number 3 and I don't doubt we will see even bigger gains in the long term.
Comments and critiques are of course welcome.
Comparison
BCH/BTC comparisonBTC and BCH charts mirror eachother strongly which shows that people are trading one coin for another to multiply their holdings.
Yet Despite BTC's recent growth BCH seems to be holding it's price quite well which means not everyone is dumping their BCH for BTC.
Although the price gap between the pair seems to be widening perhaps BTC's growth also helped BCH's value.
Is this a sign of conflict between the two or harmony?
A simple view on US 10Y bond yieldsUS 10Y bond yields are at a critical support point. If broken, downward move might accelerate.
Upper consolidation zone is almost complete, there remains only a small contraction area before break-out (either downwards or upwards).
Comparing the current US 10Y bond yield and gold_ price levels with those of 8th November 2016, gold_ has recovered to day-one-value but bond yields are still much above the (1.700-1.800_) band.
Bitcoin compared to DASH, LTC and ZECHow do Dash, LTC and ZEC move against btc? Can we learn anything from their relative movements?
Orange arrows indicate the tops in altcoins which usually results in a stall or minor consolidation in btc price
Blue arrows indicate bottom of alt moves and either coincide with or lead the rise in btc price.
Check the fib retracements to check for potential bottoms. We already had a wick to 62%
New moon was on the 25th and may coincide with a local top
Painted in redDuring Bitcoin pump most altcoins was bleeded. Unfortunately, such times also comes. I got a loss in value about 30% of all actives. So, there are some rules to follow which can help you to keep the state of money
1. On the eve of serious BTC growth forget about any long positions or investing in alts, this is very dangerous!
2. Play quick games only
3. Best decision is to sell your BTC into fiat on a top of it, and forget about altcoins until they return to life. Then if you can see legible movement or recognizable patterns, feel free to enter the game again.
Please, like this idea if you agree, or comment if think differently
Good luck in trading!
BMW - VW (Correlation)Comparing the BMW chart to the VW chart it is striking that both price developments are strongly correlated to each other. Given the current spread between the two price changes in percentage, determined by using the closing price of the first day after going public, subtracting it from the current stock price and then subsequently deviding it through the first closing price, this offers us to greatly take advantage of their correlation. Obviously, it is likely that both prices are going to cross again in the future which means that all we have to do is shorting the BMW stock and buying some VW stocks in order to benefit from the decreasing spread between both prices. If we now charge both positions with the same amount of money and then close them when prices cross again, we are going to end up with 16.43% in profit.
Ethereum vs DASH comparison - Mindblowing fractal?Looking at this comparison, the chance is- based on the wonderful fractal comparison that Ethereum may breakout into new all time highs. As Ethereum currently is bouncing on its previous ATH dating back @ both March and May '16. If it is able to hold these levels, exponential growth seems plausible.
remember however, that MM's are relentless and since ETH is extremely liquid, it might need some more time before taking off (also being reliable on the current BTCC & BTCU fork situation). This however does not mean that this beautiful chart isn't one to watch closely.
WAITING FOR THE BREAK! :)
Trade cautiously & Kind regards,
Gabriel Molenkamp
Hershey's CoCo Sector Report - January 28, 2017Materials and Finance both started the week flat, moved up for a couple days, then remained steady on Friday while the US and World markets were down. If the US and World indexes are up next week I expect much from these two!
Real Estate and Consumer Staples (Non-Cyclical) were the clear Sector losers taking back all the gains they made early in the week to finish weak.
Materials had over 60 stocks > 5% for the week... compare that with Real Estate that had only 9!
Good trading!
Brian Hershey
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Check out my "Hershey's CoCo World" indicator, available now for your US stock and sector evaluations.
"CoCo World" helps to answer the following question: Is this stock moving alone or with the US and world markets? No stock is an island, so it's important to see what everyone else is doing. Useful across all time frames, small and packed with info!
Hey how, let's go! BTC to the moon!For more info and a comparison of the 5 mayor cryptocurrencies of this moment, please see steemit.com
And go long. Very long. :)
(1D) Some BREXIT contendersThis line chart is very busy, comparing a few common GBP pairs. I thought it was useful to make this comparison to see what was happening with GBP by keeping the numerator common across the lot.
Overall I find that GBP has been recovering in recent days, as BREXIT approaches. I had expected this phenomenon to occur. It does not mean that GBP will necessarily continue to strengthen after BREXIT. I cannot foretell the future.
Other thoughts on comparing instruments here .
High volatility is expected over the next 72 hours. All traders should ensure that their risk management strategies are sharpened up. The only thing you can control is your loss.
GOLD Price monthly K.I.S.SI love K.I.S.S charts (keep it simple stupid).
Why? Because they help clear all the mud out of a chart and the over analysis. Analysis is great and I love it when it comes to charts and technical analysis. However, too much analysis is sometimes too confusing and cloudy. Ultimately we want clarity as much as possible.
For me clarity comes from the long term chart time frames a strong respect for price and tape action behavior predictors and then sometimes forward looking events .
Lets get the forward looking event out of the way first. USA election 2016 in November. From my point of view there is zero doubt that this election is going to mark a dramatic shift in policy and decision making for the USA. I hate to get into politics discussion but for me this is going to be a key driver and potential turning point for markets/economy and sentiment at least as far as the USA is concerned. And many times what the USA does sort of takes the rest of the world down the rabbit hole too.
So having said that, now we confront the current bullish stance of the USA dollar index. On the weekly and daily time frames the US dollar index appears to be in large cup and handle formation ready to break out north of typical 100 resistance. This also resembles a high tight flag with the previous vertical leg about 9 trading months. If we project a typical A B C follow move that continues in time symmetry then we can project that the next major leg duration of the US Dollar index is likely to be about 9 months. I have no idea if we will get the full 9 month rally again or if it will be just 6 months. Or perhaps it will be 11 months right into the election. Either way, it makes sense for the dollar to turn near the election as new policies and chaos from Washington confronts the markets.
The inverse of the dollar is gold. Gold is weak obviously. It looks like gold wants to dive down to near long term trendline support between 875 and 900. Of course it does not have to touch this up trendline. It could reverse before it. Perhaps this depends on how cumbersome (or not) the us dollar move north is. I suspect that the gold price will make some type of inverse head and shoulders pattern to cement the bottom. The alternative is a V shaped spike bottom as in the 1975 case, however this looks less likely to me as now there are many more stakeholders in these markets.
So the bottom line is that gold is looking like it wants to find a FINAL low in 2016 ideally towards the mid to 3/4 point of 2016 . This would present an opportune time to keep powder dry and build more powder for the so called 'buy of a lifetime'.
If you like this chart please hit the like button (thumbs up) in the top left corner of the chart !!!
DJIA vs. DJTA Divergence Supporting Diverging DJIA Price and RSIAs pointed out in a separate comment, the current price/indicator setup increasingly resembles that of 2000 and 2007, immediately before indices' pronounced price declines.
A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms that pessimistic view. Beginning in mid-2007, the DJTA started to trend downwards, while the DJIA remained caught in a relatively narrow trading range over the course of 2007 until early 2008. This pattern is currently being repeated, as the DJTA finds itself in a downward trend which started in late 2014, while the DJIA has been flat over the same time period.
Even more significant, in my view, is the divergence between the recent DJIA' price movement and the Relative Strength Index. It should be pointed out that the longer a divergence persists, the stronger its explanatory power - and eventually the correction it calls for. Having lasted for more than two years, the current discrepancy has persisted significantly longer than the divergence in 2007, which remained for about half a year, before indices fell by about 50%.
DJIA vs. DJTA Divergence Supporting Diverging DJIA Price and RSIAs pointed out in a separate comment, the current price/indicator setup increasingly resembles that of 2000 and 2007, immediately before indices' pronounced price declines. See the following chart for the parallels between 2000, 2007 and now, as previously posted:
A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms that pessimistic view. Beginning in mid-2007, the DJTA started to trend downwards, while the DJIA remained caught in a relatively narrow trading range over the course of 2007 until early 2008. This pattern is currently being repeated, as the DJTA finds itself in a downward trend which started in late 2014, while the DJIA has been flat over the same time period.
Even more signficant, in my view, is the divergence between DJIA's price movement and the RSI, which is apparent since early 2013. It is worthwhile to point out that the longer such a divergence lasts, the stronger is its explanatory power - and eventually the correction it calls for. With the current divergence between price and RSI having started more than two years ago, this is substantially longer than the roughly half year discrepancy we experienced in 2007, before prices corrected about 50%.
Bitcoin Price v. Shanghai IndexNice to meet you, Though I observed here for a while, it is my first post.
In 2014 autumn, one member posted comparison between Shanghai Index and Bitcoin price. (See Link)
At that time, the author suggested that, Chinese investors will be less attracted to bitcoin because they have more profitable market, or Chinese Stock Market. According to recent data, it seems to be right forecast at least until mid of April, when Chinese Stock Market has been totally bullish while bitcoin bearish.
However, from late April, trend slightly has changed; growth of the stock slowed and even reversed for a week, and bitcoin price escaped local low of 1320 CNY and now heading 1550 CNY. If Chinese investors find that the stock is distinctly less profitable, I believe that modest bounce of bitcoin price to ~1700 CNY until late May is not only possible, but also plausible. Yet, impact of slowed stock market growth will be limited, for usual investor prefer gold and other 'safe' asset.
The comparative strength or weakness of Gold vs. US DollarIn this study, I'm looking at the performance of gold, in terms of percentage gains/loss compared to the performance of the US dollar, tracked by the dollar index (DXY). As gold moves inversely with the US dollar, I inversed the DXY to set a comparative benchmark, hence 1/DXY.
Please see notes on chart.
The all-important 38.2% level and what breaking it means.Several weeks ago, I posted () a unique comparison of Bitcoin bubbles and how even though the sizes are so much different, they follow the same pattern for the aftershocks and the retracements. As I'm sure everyone has noticed, we are on the verge of another bubble now, and I personally think that the breaking of this $680 level (and accompanying 38.2%) will be the confirmation we need.
What I have added this time, in addition to cleaning up my work, is several indicators on the bottom. In the past, they have "bounced" off of a higher level that the main crash of that cycle did, and this time around this same "bounce" is rearing it's head yet again. If we break $680, that will be a very good confirmation for the coming weeks.
I simplified this chart to try and make the picture I'm trying to paint a little bit clearer, if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask!
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On a side note, my prediction from here seems to be coming true: (www.reddit.com)
>Additionally, as the liquidity increases in the markets and the economy grows, I think the "bubble pattern" will break it's 235 day cycle and start slowing down, along with volatility slowly decreasing over time. We see this in my >chart with the time spans on the bottom. This is why the current phase seems to be "behind schedule" to many, but I'm not worried. As long as we continue the next few weeks with a solid launch platform, we will still be in >excellent conditions for a bubble launch.
I have been expecting this bubble cycle to take considerably longer than the "235 day" window everyone was expecting back then, and by now it looks like that is set in stone. There simply is too much ground to cover and not enough things are falling into place. I started to suspect this was the case back when we took so long to exit the bearish trendline back at $450 because all of the things (X,Y,Z) that had to happen were starting to get more and more compressed.
On the other hand, on the larger cycle picture, things seem to be right on track. So sit back and enjoy folks!
(oh, and I'm still buying Litecoin as based on my previous predictions too! Dat flash crash)