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Complacency

"New bull market!" "Return to normal!" Bubble bust denial lolzFED "pivot" hopes won't die. Bank collapses are "good for the stock market". AI mania has the meme market looking alive again. NVDA, a company in which both revenue and earnings have dropped significantly over the past 3 quarters, is trading at 150+ P/E and 25xSales with a $666Billion market cap! We're "back to normal" folks! /s I LOVE how this classic Market Psychology chart lines up so well with the current NASDAQ monthly chart!
TVC:IXICShort
by RobBiddle
7
Zcash Reversal or Bearish Continuation ZEC will need to close daily above descending trendline and see more bullish support or risk retracing into the right shoulder of a very clean head & shoulders pattern on daily charts. ZEC is volatile and sideways chop at current price is unlikely to continue... in the coming day or 2, it will either break up and reverse the long-term bearish trend, or fall back into the descending triangle. Overall, Crypto faired very well so far this week, appearing to shrug of major headwinds: 1. EU MiCA did not adopt language against Proof-of-Work 2. Inflation measure Feb results by BLS show PPI up 20% year over year, zooming past Jan inflation # 3. Federal Reserve FOMC towed the line with 25 bps and a cautious Chairman continuing measured and dovish leaning communication while acknowledging inflation... pointing to healthy near full employment without diving into the real and severe labor shortage the US faces. Markets responded to the sheepish FOMC action rallying up and apparently exuberant the Fed kicked the can down the road again. Fundamentals of the economy remain unhealthy, equities and assets are sky high, inflation is roaring, the regulators are not looking to control anything until after the mid-term elections. This complacency is likely to result in a harsher correction the longer the facade continues.
Z
by R0MM3LL
"This Time Is Different"Based on this chart we are currently in the complacency stage. The description fits quite well for the overall market sentiment. For months now we have heard about how we are in a much needed correction for the next great run up. Think of all the emotions that you experienced from the March crash to the May top. Many of us have felt the optimism, belief, thrill, euphoria, and now the complacency. Do not be a fool and fall for the "This Time Is Different" narrative. People will say this time is different because of "institutional investors, countries adoptoption, etc." Do not fall for it.
Short
by Nutty_Trader
26
Bitcoin: Last confirmation before zeroI thought BTC would go a bit higher before a correction, but "this cool off is taking longer than expected" got me thinking, as well as people telling how wrong I was to be bearish in March 2020, days before the BTC market capitulated because months later price went up (fun fact: just before BTC crashed 60% some people made fun of me for being wrong because BTCUSD went up 5%, you're always right when you choose your timeframe in hindsight). From the charts I am comparing I think it is quite obvious what my timeframe is. Maybe timeframe is not the correct word because it could take 5 days like it could take 2 months. This kind of price action does not appear for the first time, here is an example of it taking 2 months. The celebrating and media attention is not at its peak, it could either be that this is just a small "bear market" in the trend up, like April 2013 was - not that I think BTCUSD drops 80% now. Also, the (long idea)/(short idea) ratio indicator is extremely overbought, when BTC was at 11k no one cared, now everyone is in and bullish, this does not bode well. I am also long ETH, back in Dec 2017 & Jan 2018 Bitcoin going down ended up harming the ETH uptrend but long after the BTC downmove was started, obvious, and it did not prevent it from going to ath, and on top of that ETH made 2 double tops to really give bulls time to think and adjust their portfolio. If this BTC downtrend happens, could be fast, us longs ETH might want to trail a stop on BTC short, maybe sell some ETH if it stops going up, and reload lower. There is a case for BTCUSD going up "Possibly the last confirmation before 50k", right now I am not feeling it. Might go higher, from experience and instinct I am not feeling it. Looks more like complacency and the price will drop soon. The hard part is guessing where it bottoms (zero obviously), I'd say somewhere between 35 and 45% from the high. The area to considering closing that short and buy in $ numbers is not that wide, roughly 25 to 30k. Depending on what happens we might have to close our short higher, but I don't think I'd buy before the price reaches that area.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MrRenev
26