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Easy Long - THIS IS NOT ADVICE!!!congress providing fundamental promise with passing a bill that could influence markets to buy this ETF, Technicals are setup to look for a return to previous levels off the backs of a strong Bulldiv rally from oversold levels, setting a stop below the recent swing low allows for a technical trade plan that removes emotion. The simple R/R lines up with the bottom of the recent range making it conservative, too. if the position is large enough, it could be managed through selling calls and use the premiums to hedge against a drop, just close out any short calls before dumping shares and make sure any short calls are sold with a strike above entry. NOT ADVICE, SIMPLY FOR FUN AND THEORY
AMEX:SOXLLong
by rolledchange
3
CMC - Infrastructure Bill Fueled Breakout - Industrial SteelNYSE:CMC - this company is in the correct sector to directly benefit from the infrastructure bill. It is forming a Cup basing formation. If the market reacts positively to the news of the Infrastructure Bill getting signed, the vertically integrated steel producer stands to benefit from all of the national construction products that will ensue, especially if the administration keeps its promises about using domestic materials and labor. Basing Formation: Cup - depth ~22% - duration ~ 14 weeks Pivot Point: $36 Target: $40 Stop Loss: $32.5
NYSE:CMCLong
by MakeMoneyCoESTB2020
DXY weakness !The US debt problem has caused increased weakness and caused a downtrend since October open ! The problem has been stemmed on by many people in congress and i have little faith this problem will get resolved fully in a timely manner. While this is bad for America , this would provide the perfect opportunity for a parabolic leg in crypto and potentially increase institutional investors due to inflation increasing ! Currently i have two paths planned out which both heavily rely on a debt solution or lack of : The blue path is the path we would ideally see for another parabolic leg and it relies on congress being slow to act on a full resolution. The yellow path will only occur if more solutions are presented and this problem is fully solved with a plan put into place to potentially stop this recurring debt ceiling .
INDEX:DXY
by ollie_oz
US Markets to See Big PullbackWe've been on quite the bullrun this year. I think it's time to go short. Technically: For the first time this year, we have fallen below the 50ema on the Daily and failed to recover above it. We normally recover same day or next but its been 6 trading days below the 50ema. We made a lower low in June which signaled a sign of weakness in the uptrend. Now we are again making another low below August 19th low. I think its time we retest some support levels. Fundamentally: - Fed has talked about tapering and possibly raising rates buy EOY/early next year - Covid Delta variant is on the rise, raising fear in multiple countries - US Congress has not yet voted on the Federal Budget and will most likely go into a Government Shutdown next month. - China cracking down on Tech + Evergrande 300b default is likely to make some waves globally Levels to watch: - ~34000 (July Low) - ~33200 (May High, June Low, 200 ema) - ~31200 (New year consolidation range) - ~29600 (Pre-covid High, Feb Low)
OANDA:US30USDShort
by dbryan
1
WKHS Swing-Trade IdeaWKHS (Workhorse Group, Inc.) is a swing-trade idea that presents the following (Bullish) conditions: 1.) The 5-day moving average is about to cross the 21-day moving average price. When short period moving averages cross above long period moving averages, it tends to indicate an upward price movement. 2.) The monthly "Moving Average Convergence/Divergence" (MACD) histogram (indicator at bottom) is ending a down wave and beginning a new up wave. 3.) The concentration of volume (Blue/Yellow bars on left) indicates that the majority of investors currently own stock at the $16.20 price level (Point of Control), this level drops by approximately half as the price moves up towards the $17.92 (Yearly) Fibonacci support/resistance level. The volume of of share holders above $17.92 decreases until about $19.57 (Less resistance). Then resistance increases until $21.37, followed by another decrease in resistance until the price hits the next fibonacci support/resistance level at $22.71. This is followed by decreasing concentrations of volume as the price moves up. For movement up beyond this point the following will be critical. 4.) Workhorse was the 2nd place bidder on A major contract to update the postal delivery vehicle fleet for the United States Postal Service (USPS). Workhorse is offering a 100% electric vehicle fleet. The 1st place bidder OSK (Oshkosh, Corporation.) was awarded the contract by the outgoing Trump appointed head of the USPS. Oshkosh is only offering 10% of the fleet as electric vehicles and 90% internal combustion engine. The House of Congress and the Biden Administration may rescind the awarded contract to OSK to meet the requirements of an Executive order that President Biden signed on 25/Jan/2021. If Workhorse is granted the contract, look for a move up from the $22.71 to $27.49 fibonacci support/resistance levels. Just my opinion, not advice. Thank you.
NASDAQ:WKHSLong
by khollspati
Will we see a new decline in gold?From the beginning of the year, a downtrend in H4 gold began. It represents a correction of the rise in 2020. And the main question always, is it time to buy or will we see another drop? It will become clear today! We are currently facing resistance from the trend line, as well as resistance from previous peaks. This is an opportunity to look for a new decline to the previous bottom, and in case of a break even lower. The important event today is - Fed's Chair Powell testifies Watch for movement beforehand! If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ForexTrendline
2
DEC 20 GOLD: Entering weekly resistance zoneWhat is up trading family, Comin back at you with my December 20th , 2020 analysis on XAU USD. This week we are watching for the market's reaction to the vaccine rollouts as well as congress approving a stimulus package, in relation to the resistance zone we are nearing on the weekly timeframe. We will continue to hold our positions and monitor gold's reaction to this area through the week. If you have any questions or comments don't hesitate, I love interacting with you guys and hearing your thoughts on the market. And as usual ... take profits and take it easy -- I'll catch y'all next week. - Ray
OANDA:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn4277822
2
Follow-up: Will the USD start recovering or what!?Hello traders! I hope you are having a good week. We will follow up on the analysis from a few days ago talking about the recovery or fall of the US dollar. We can see how the market ends up confirming the bullish flag pattern, also breaking the weekly resistance (in blue) located around 1.2200. It is still possible that we are facing a false breakup before a dump, recovering the aforementioned area as a resistance, so, in case we want to get into some trades, an alternative to reduce risk is to use cost averaging techniques, taking a small operation and increasing it little by little. In my opinion, while the market remains above 1.2200, the bullish plans will continue to be viable, being able to reach 1.2300 as an initial goal since it is a psychological level, or even carrying out a rally towards 1.2400 - 1.2500, an area in which we have a weekly resistance that hasn't been visited in years. Regarding the dollar index $ DXY, from our analysis in which we took a look at how it had behaved in recent weeks, we can see how it has simply continued its bearish course. It recently broke the psychological zone of 90.00, however, it is a too recent break to be able to trust it, since, at the time of writing this idea, it has barely pierced it for a few cents. Now, with respect to the fundamental factors that are possibly supporting the weakening of the US dollar, we have a similar scenario to the one mentioned in previous ideas. In short, the US Congress remains silent on the new stimulus packages for COVID-19, resulting in uncertainty, causing the dollar to weaken. Another point that we must consider is Brexit, since the latest news suggested that the possibility of an agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom, a situation that has positively affected the Euro and the Great British Pound. However, a no-deal Brexit is still possible, which would bring volatility to the Euro and the Pound, so if we plan to trade these pairs, we must take that into account. Leave in the comments what you think of this idea and what is your perspective on what is happening in the markets. Whether you’re gonna sit on your hands and just watch the market or start taking trades, remember to always plan your trades and trade your plan. Happy weekend folks!
Long
by FernandoBorea
Politechnical Analysis of BSE Sensex from 2004 to 2024Starting 2004 was a New Era of the Indian Political System wherein former RBI Chief and Finance Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh was elected as the Prime Minister of India. From there the Indian markets saw a quick growth and transformation, Sensex rocketed from 4800 levels to 21,000 level in a matter of 4 yrs. Then came the Sub Prime crisis in US which rattled the Global Market crashing stocks market by 60-70% globally. There on the Sensex took its time to re establish growth. The Congress Govt faced huge backlash from the country on their governance, integrity and top party leaders had to face corruption allegations against them. The markets retested the previous highs of 2008 levels of before Sub-Prime Crisis, but could never breakout. The confidence was in the market was subdued for 6 years and the market just couldn't breakout. March 2014, was the anticipation month of a new government, new hope, and the markets took that confidence to breakout from the 2008 Pre Subprime crisis highs. April 2014 the election fever was at high, the market were turning volatile and at the same time an indecisiveness could be felt. Then came the result month May 2014, BJP won and the markets shot itself up. There were a little blips in between due to Global Economic factors in 2016. But the next two years, saw an acceleration. The Midcaps and Small Caps were outperforming like never before. The amazing earnings of companies kept the markets soaring high. TRADE WAR, COVID 19 and "Aatma Nirbhar" Jan 2018, Trump had declared a Trade War on China, the trigger for Indian markets to fall was the Feb 2018 budget. From hereon the growth was subdued, Even though in 2 year the Sensex made a high of 42,000, the growth was only 4-5% over the 2 yrs. The markets kept looking quite weak as the earnings started taking a hit in most of the sectors. The valuations were still soaring and now the markets was expecting something new and big from the Modi lead BJP Govt. Even though the Finance Minister brought some corporate tax reform, which enable the markets to touch 42,000 mark. Just as the government was to bring the $5trillion Indian dream to reality, the world is hit by a deadly Coronavirus (COVID-19). This changes everything. Never ever anyone could imagine that life would come to a standstill. It crashed the markets horribly. The Prime Minister now takes this decision and brings about a new term that will/may change the future of India. The Aatma Nirbhar Bharat (Self Reliant India). Right now what the markets are actually doing is "Retesting the Governance of Modi BJP 2014". When I say retesting the governance, technically, the Markets may retest the entire rally from March 2014 breakout which also is a 61.8% fibonaaci retracement level from the lows of Sub Prime crisis to the highs of 2020. If the market is confident of the Modi Govts dream project of "Aatma Nirbhar Bharat" (Self Reliant India), We could see a mirror image (backwards) of 2004 to 2014 and an astonishing swing from 21,121 to 93,000 by May 2024. This rally would be called as "Aatma Nirbhar Rally".
INDEX:SENSEXEducation
by AkshatGupta
Threats on the horizon, EU summit & hidden intervention of JapanToday we are talking about a possible demarche by the Irish Democratic Party and, accordingly, the text of the treaty that could be not approved. Therefore, the GBP movement stuck. On the one hand, growth needs to be continued, because on brink of Brexit deal, on the other hand, everyone suddenly realized that the deal still has to be approved by the Parliament of Great Britain. This has already happened with Theresa May so the growth of the pound has stopped so far. Also, a positive sign following the results of today's summit of the European Union may well overshadow the concerns for a while. So today we will continue to buy the pound, but with an eye on the outcome of the summit. Its failure will be a sentence for the pound (at least temporary) and it will be sold out. Another rather unexpected threat was the announcement by China that the country is ready for countermeasures if the US Congress provides legislative support to protesters in Hong Kong. Given the already difficult and still incomplete trade negotiations between the United States and China, this could become a stumbling block in resolving trade wars. In the light of such news and market concerns, today we will continue to look for points for safe-haven assets purchase (gold and the Japanese yen). As for the yen decline this week, Goldman Sachs explains its weaknesses with purchases of foreign assets by the Japanese State Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which put pressure on its currency. But in general, this is a form of hidden currency interventions. Interventions by the Bank of Japan may provoke the United States to ask the Bank questions, but also it seems like there is no manipulation. Worth noting the weak data on US retail sales (-0.3% with the forecast + 0.3%). The dollar naturally was under pressure. Recall that we remain bears, so today we continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Pound is growth leader, dollar and ruble in danger and FEDThe best day for the pound over the past six weeks. Sum up, the result of its growth was the highest among the 30 other currencies on FOREX. Causes - a general correction in dollar pairs and possibility of Brexit progress. It is about the progress in the negotiations between Government and the leaders of the opposition Labor Party. As a result, by the middle of the next week, a compromise on Brexit may appear. In addition, a decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the UK will be announced on Thursday. But we will talk about it tomorrow. Today, the Fed’s Open Market Operations Committee will announce its decision. With a 98% probability, the rate will remain unchanged. That is characteristic 2% put on a decrease in the rate. Obviously, the rate change is not worth waiting. But in general, if you look at the likelihood of lowering the rate until the end of the year, then the tendency is rather “dovish”: the probability that by the end of the year the rate will be decreased is 60-70%. What does this mean for the dollar? - Nothing good. Yesterday's sales - further proof of that. The weak inflation component in the latest report on US GDP indicates that the expectations of a rate hike in 2019 by the Fed are not that baseless. Thus, yesterday the markets were discounted under a possible "pigeon" tone by the Fed. Note that as a reason for the Fed’s optimism is the latest figures for US GDP (they are much higher than forecasts). So the results are quite unpredictable in terms of the Central Bank’s comments. Our position as a whole is to sell the dollar. But, it will need to be adjusted in the process of results announcement. Returning to the events of yesterday, we should note relatively good data on the Eurozone GDP (exceeded forecasts: 0.4%, with market expectations averaging 0.3%). But the GDP of Canada frankly disappointed: in February, the indicator fell by 0.1%. In addition, the situation with unemployment in the Eurozone was better than experts' expectations (7.7%, with a forecast of 7.8%). In this light, yesterday's growth of EURUSD above 1.12 can be considered as logical. Democratic Leader Senator Chuck Schumer called on the United States to impose additional sanctions against Russia. And today, in the US Congress should pass a hearing on Russia, which could result in another tightening of sanctions. As for our positions, today we are continuing to look for points for the dollar sales against the euro, pound, as well as the Australian and Canadian dollars. In addition, we will buy gold, as well as sell oil and the Russian ruble on the intraday basis.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Brexit, trade wars, oil and ruble problems April 12, 2019 is the official Brexit date. There are two options: leaving without a deal (both are afraid of it, Britain and the EU, therefore, we regard this outcome as highly unlikely) or a delay. In our opinion, the second option is alternative. It is all about the terms. The EU summit will show whether it takes a year, as the EU wants, or a couple of months, as the Britain wants. Our trading tactics are unchanged so far - we buy a pound on descents. Trade negotiations between the US and China over the end of the trade wars continue. This week promises to be quite intensive in terms of the negotiation process. Recall that the completion of trade wars is viewed by markets as positive for the world economy as a whole and for individual markets (commodity, stock) in particular. Oil has reached its maximum in the last 5 months. The reasons for this we have already listed. The main thing is the OPEC + No.2 agreement, which provides for an artificial supply reduction in the oil market by 1.2 million b / d. In addition, a sharp drop in the level of mining in Venezuela and problems in Libya only only thrown oil on the flames. The result - the growth of oil quotations despite an increase in the production of shale in the USA. We continue to look for points for asset purchases on the intraday basis with small stops. We recommend yesterday’s ruble appreciation in the foreign exchange market as a pretext for its selling. “Deadly” sanctions are already under consideration by Congress. Recall that one of the main strikes from the new package will impact banking system. Analysts of Raiffeisen bank calculated the total volume of problem assets on the balance of credit institutions of the Russian Federation in 2019 exceeded 10 trillion (problematic is considered “mortgage with indicators of impairment”, which include bad, toxic and simply non-performing loans). The coverage ratio of bank reserves of problem debts is only 54%, i.e. the amount of uncovered problem assets is estimated at 4.7 trillion rubles. The banks will not be able to cover this hole with their own capital - it simply will not be enough. Thus, the banking system is more vulnerable than ever, and sanctions may well destroy the delicate balance and lead to collapse. In this light, we recall our basic recommendation to sell the ruble at every available opportunity. We want to highlight a recommendation on the dollar sales, as well as purchases of gold.
Long
by Trade24Fx