Consol Energy to find buyers at previous resistance?Consol Energy - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 63.75 (stop at 60.75)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Previous resistance at 64 now becomes support.
The previous swing low is located at 63.32.
Bespoke support is located at 64.
We look to buy dips.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 70.75 and 72.75
Resistance: 68.00 / 69.84 / 72.00
Support: 65.85 / 63.32 / 62.00
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Consolenergy
Fading into Consol primary trend.Consol Energy - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 58.22 (stop at 54.91)
Levels below 58 continue to attract buyers.
The primary trend remains bullish.
There is no sign that this bearish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing low of 57.52.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Short term momentum is bearish.
Early pessimism is likely to lead to losses although extended attempts lower are expected to fail.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 66.48 and 68.48
Resistance: 65.00 / 68.00 / 70.20
Support: 60.20 / 58.60 / 57.50
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
CEIX Consol Rally to $60 for Local Coal Cycle Toptry and be patient with this one. Geopolitical headlines will move it fast in this thin volume topping structure.
await a run up near 60 and then play for downside
strong fundamentals:
finviz.com
Greenlight Capital also discussed CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) in its Q2 2021 investor letter. The fund said:
“Thermal Coal and Natural Gas
ESG investing is inflationary, as green energy is simply more expensive than hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon energy companies are starved for capital and are being told to change their ways. The result is less exploration and drilling. Even with benchmark oil prices surging over the last year, companies are loath to drill more. Normally, the cure for high prices is high prices. With ESG in the proverbial driver’s seat, we might need much higher prices still in order to increase investment to meet demand.
There is almost nothing less popular than thermal coal. From 2011 to 2020, U.S. coal production declined by 51%. U.S. demand has fallen as we’ve shifted to alternative sources of electricity. As unpopular as coal is though, it still makes up about 20% of U.S. electricity generation. Globally, coal demand is growing modestly as China and India add power generation capacity faster than the West is reducing it. Even so, reduced oil and gas drilling has caused natural gas prices to advance and coal prices are following. Seaborne thermal coal prices are up 140% year-over-year and at the highest levels since 2011, and Northern Appalachia thermal coal prices are catching up, rising 23% in the last month alone.
We own CONSOL Energy (CEIX), the lowest cost, most efficient miner in Appalachia, which is poised to benefit from rising coal prices. It trades at 12x consensus earnings estimates that look stale to us, as they do not reflect recent coal price gains.”
4/3/22 CEIXCONSOL Energy Inc. ( NYSE:CEIX )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Coal)
Market Capitalization: 1.350B
Current Price: $38.77
Breakout price (hold above): $38.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $36.35-$31.75
Price Target: $46.20-$47.80 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 49-52d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $CEIX 6/17/22 40c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.50/contract
2/9/22 CEIXCONSOL Energy Inc. ( NYSE:CEIX )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Coal)
Market Capitalization: 1.004B
Current Price: $29.13
Breakout price: $29.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $26.95-$24.05
Price Target: $32.50-$32.80 (1st), $36.20-$37.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 22-25d (1st), 41-46d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $CEIX 3/18/22 25c, $CEIX 6/17/22 30c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.90/contract, $3.80/contract
Global Demand for Coal Is Expected to Be LingerConsol Energy, which I wrote about in the beginning of October, has not only risen above its all-time high at $28.27, as I was expecting, but also gained even more than 30% jumping to $36.23. Shares of the coal producer were rising within the upward channel rooted on April 30 and the upper margin crossing $29.40.
A breakthrough of the price above the upper margin gave Consol Energy stocks an additional boost to the new target area of $36.00-36.20. Also, a convergence on several oscillators between the highs of October 11 and October 18 has emerged forming a reversal pattern “Double Tops”, which has prompted a correction.
As for now Consol Energy shares have met their correction targets, and dived below the 7-month upside trend, at least the EMA13 and EMA21 moving averages on the daily timeframe are still above the price that indicates a downward pressure.
So, how deep might a further correction reach since stocks have made a 50% correction already? I see two major scenarios.
According to the first scenario prices may experience a strong decline considering the “Head and shoulders” pattern that is being formed on the chart. It is visible on daily and weekly timeframe charts with a 50% on Fibonacci retracement acting like a neckline, even it is pitched down. However, to finally confirm this pattern we need the price to hold below $21.50 per share. If this is confirmed, we will have a significant correction potential of 80-100% of the “Head” height that leads us to a long-term price target at $10.00-10.50.
The second scenario considers the “Hound of Baskervilles” trend continuation formation appearance after failure of the “Head and Shoulders”, “Reversed Head and shoulders” and “Diamond” patterns-like formation. The first signal for this scenario would be a continuation of rising prices after an existing correction breaking through the second “shoulder” top at $25.95. At this point the second “shoulder” is not complete and would be completed and confirmed only after reaching the $21.50 landmark.
I would suggest the first scenario would not be the one I would bet on as the demand for coal is strong ahead of the winter season.
According to New Hope Corp., a large Australian coal exporter, the demand for coal will remain strong for at least two more decades even considering the fact that countries around the globe are moving towards decarbonisation. Moreover, the company suggests that the demand for coal in India, Vietnam and Japan would exceed the supply in the coming quarter.