Consolidation-breakout
USDCAD Sell the BreakoutUSDCAD has finally approached the area at the top of the channel which will likely provide the best area to short the market. We will be looking to sell the breakout out of this smaller consolidation channel.
I have waited for this consolidation to publish an idea, as it would suggest the upturn in price of the last few days seems to be losing all steam as it approaches to upper channel resistance allowing for market bears to re enter.
We can expect price to breakout of this channel pretty soon, however you must always wait for confirmation to trade.
EUR/USD - Brexit week. EUR/USD moving sidewards with no apparent bias in the last week. Volatility is expected this week due to the EU Ref.
If EUR/USD breaks 1.13 look for upside of 1.135-1.40; on the converse, if the pair still consolidates sidewards look for fluctuation between 1.12 and 1.13 for the forthcoming week.
EURAUD - 30M - Bat pattern CD trade in uptrendafter the recent big upmove for EURAUD i expected a correction to come in to at least retest the white box. so i looked for short signals. i just went short based on the breakout from the dashed consolidation. i waited a bit to get a better price and now hope for downside.
risk reward is pretty nice, so doesnt need to work all that often. if we come down into the white box nicely i will look for a bat pattern buy and also look for other long signals if the bat doesnt work
Dow Jones Industrial Avg Held in Neutral Consolidated Position BREAKOUTS & RUN
As we look over market history in the U.S. and other equity markets, we see long standing fits and starts.
Ranges in these starts are extremely bullish, seeing breakouts of more than 2000% over 25 year periods. After breakouts markets always and eventually consolidate before they turn there next break.
Post 1930's Great Depression U.S. market grew by 2405% before consolidating in the late 1950's for 23 years into the early 1980's.
Top end resistance area is 1,000, which was tested many times over in the 60 all the way through 70's and eventually breaking out in 1983.
The 80's brought us the computer age, which lead us down the path of internet and micronization along with digitalization into 21st century. Markets priced in our new found improvements resulting in a 2104% market movement 1983-2000.
CONSOLIDATION
Our current equity status is consolidation.
From previous market history, we can see these periods can last a quarter century or slightly longer.
I'm expecting at least another 5 to 15 years of consolidation with a pinnacle trough, which we've already seen (2007-09), to reach 65%. Our top end resistance area is 17,500, which was met already in early 2015 and will most likely be tested once or twice more.
Predicted Breakout won't occur until 2020 or much later, 2030. Given the magnitude of the deep consolidated trough (2007-09), I would assume sooner rather than later.
EURCAD - 2H - Bat Pattern retesting trendlineBat pattern coming into strong trendline support. We also have a nice trendline inside the CD leg to work with as a confirmation for this bat. Look for a break above the trendlien (on a lower timeframe) as first confirmation. a small consolidation/correction and a breakout above this (like shown on the chart) should then be final confirmation to go long
EURAUD - 4H - Nother SharkAs alot of EUR pairs. EURAUD is also seeing a sharkish formation. but in this case we might see a trade earlier, since the consolidation is already startin to form. if we can at least retest the recent (consolidation) swing highs, i will place my orders below consolidation to sell to the shark completion point. should be a small easy trade with a decent risk reward.
if we complete this pattern the way i want it, i will also looking to go down the timeframes to look for further shorts. but lets wait and see first
if it spikes up from here, then i wont trade.
Looking Back, Looking ForwardWith this momentous breakout of the 2 year downtrend in Bitcoin's price, it can be difficult to imagine the possibilities going forward. I find repeating pattern's in Bitcoin's price history offer some direction. The patterns highlighted with the purple arrows are the price consolidation areas in yellow that have with a notable regularity formed near the 0.236 fibline, based off the previous ATH & 1st major correction. Based on this I predict a multi week long consolidation around the $800-$1000 region, market by the yellow triangle, before moving up & above the lower trendline in light blue.
EL shooting star reversal candleEL has been cropping up on my lists quite a lot recently - overall it is an upwardly trending stock and has been since 2009/2010. However, the trend is not at all easy to trade - even for a longer-term trend trader.
There have been many periods of extended consolidation - the duration (rather than the depth ) has been the main sticking point. In the last few months (since breaking above the 2014 high) the trend has become at little more linear - but not enough to feel confident for a straightforward trade.
Yesterday price gapped up on higher volume (and the earnings announcement) but the shooting star candle was extremely bearish. This suggests a reversal (at least in the near-term).
While I anticipate EL continuing to trend up it is not a stock which is simple to trade. I will bypass this one at this stage.