BTC POSSIBLE DIRECTIONS CLEAR PICTURE Hy my name is rukhshan warraich .
Lets take a top-down (htf-ltf ) approach to analyze bitcoin next movement .
1w-1d-4h
a) Technicals
lets first consider 1w data :
btc currently ended the h&s pattern but the price target area has not been touched yet that is a bearish movement (which is around 11000 per bitcoin )
left shoulder of the h&s pattern is higher than the right shoulder which makes it more accurate and valid to have a bearish movement .
curently btc is in consolidation phase where bulls and bears have no proper control over the price .
the next major technical support is at 11800 (very bearish move ).
1d data:
btc formed bearish flag (18june - 15 august ) and then showed a bearish move (almost -5800 usd down )
curently forming a descending triangle is till now playing good .(bearish pattern )
support is well kept but the price at support is fluctuating (17700, 17400 , 18200)
big picture shows btc is making a double bottom pattern with a price target of
(24500 , 28000) which looks not posible considering the economical conditions .
so the last hope is that it holds the support or loose it to confirm the very bottom .
halving is in 2023-2024 and considering economical conditions and inflation bull run is not possible.
4h data :
symmetrical triangle which can break from top or bottom (not confirm yet but most likely to the bottom )
b) fundamental analysis :
elsalvador is thinking of not buying more bitcoins as 70% of the population voted against buying more bitcoin.
maybe elsalvador will sell causing more panic .
market has not much reacted to good news so far .
sentimental :
people needs to withdraw money because of inflation and economical crisis .
conclusion :
considering all these points , btc can still take a relief rally till (19700-21000)
but the overall market is still bearish .
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