GOLD → How might consolidation end? Up or down?FX:XAUUSD is in the consolidation stage. The morning session was extremely quiet amid the absence of Japan in trading, as well as after Saturday's news. Traders are waiting for Powell's speech at 16:30 GMT.
The market was expecting that Trump's assassination attempt in Pennsylvania could have a strong impact on gold as a hedge asset, but the market did not react much, except for cryptocurrencies.
The dollar still looks bearish, if Powell does not change his stance from last week, the dollar index could break support and go down, for gold this would be a favorable scenario.
Since the price is in a range, we can consider 2 scenarios at this point:
1) If the bulls keep the price above 2407, they may break the local resistance and test the upper boundary of the range with a breakout target
2) Against the backdrop of the dollar pullback, gold may come down to the liquidity zone before a subsequent move up.
Support levels: 2407, 2401, 2392
Resistance levels: 2413, 2417, 2424
Fundamentally and technically the background is favorable, gold is quite capable of testing the ATH or even renewing it, but it is worth paying attention to Powell's speech....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Consolidation
HOW-TO: Cyato Bands
█ Overview
Welcome to the getting started page dedicated to my automated trading strategy Cyatophilum Bands, which is in continuous development.
The strategy principle is to identify consolidation areas, catch breakouts and ride the trend as long as possible.
█ Trade examples
Breakout from Tight Consolidation
Price consolidates within a narrow range and identifies the breakout point.
False Breakout Avoidance
Filter out noise from the market by incorporating volume, trend and range filters.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Set the Bands time frame higher than the current chart to perform MTF analysis.
Reversal Confirmation
In the strategy direction settings, you can choose to go long, short or both.
Profitable Trend Continuation
A cool feature the take profit has is that it gets disabled when the trend is strong and clear, allowing to play safe in a ranging market, while maximizing profits in strong trends.
█ Indicator settings
Bands Settings
The band configuration settings allow you to create any kind of band, my favorite is the Donchian channels, but you can also create Bollinger and Kelter kinds of bands.
Filter Settings
The entry is triggered by a band breakout, but only that is not enough to create a solid strategy. Adjust the consolidation area, set a volume, range and trend filter to strengthen your entry.
Stop Loss Settings
Easily create a stop loss system using %, ATR, pips or AUTO calculation modes.
Add a trailing stop using ATR or Classic modes. (more modes can be added upon request)
Take Profit Settings
Set a take profit system using also different modes and the amazing feature to disable take profit during strong trends.
Backtest Settings
Backtest quickly using the information panel. See if you beat buy and hold and ATH buy and hold, as well as other stats like daily return.
█ Backtesting results & preconfigured charts
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IMX/USDT
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GOLD → Favorable fundamental background. Will we go to 2450?FX:XAUUSD updates high to 2424 amid favorable news. Buyers are returning with the belief that the dollar will continue to fall on the back of the imminent interest rate cuts.
CPI indicates significant easing of inflationary pressures in June. Annual inflation fell to 3%, the lowest rate in a year. This report provides evidence to the Fed that inflation is easing, but most likely it is not enough for them and they will need 1-2 reports confirming the fact that inflation is under control and a move into deflation is forming.
Ahead of PPI and traders are focusing on this report as favorable data could reinforce fresh selling in the US Dollar. This, in turn, could trigger a rise in gold prices. But, it is worth considering the unpredictability of the news in your trading.
Resistance levels: 2411, 2416, 2424
Support levels: 2396, 2392, 2385
Technically, a small correction is possible after a false breakdown of resistance, which in general may lead to testing the imbalance zone before the next growth, if the fundamental background after PPI is maintained or intensified....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;)
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY → Interventions + CPI. The market doesn't believe it...FX:USDJPY is coming under bearish attack. Immediately after the US CPI release, the Japanese Central Bank intervened in the FX market to support the yen.
Fundamentally this was to be expected. Japan's central bank is not trying very hard to preserve its national currency. In order to invest minimal effort, policymakers took advantage of the US CPI report. The CPI + Interventions tandem led to a 2.7% decline in the currency pair. But, traders are starting to buy back some of the decline. Ahead of PPI, the news could both amplify the fall and smear all the efforts of the BoJ.
Technically, I don't think such actions will lead to anything global. The growth could continue. On W1 the nature of the market does not change, all interventions are gradually bought out and the currency pair will continue to update the highs.
Resistance levels: 159.6, 160.2, 160.5
Support levels: 157.7
It is possible to buy out and test the imbalance zone before the subsequent decline. A favorable background may be the PPI report, but after the market calms down, traders may return to JPY sell-offs, which may lead to the continuation of USDJPY growth.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → 2387 is key resistance, but ahead of CPI...FX:XAUUSD continues to maintain a bullish market structure, gradually pushing up to strong resistance with a breakout target. The US dollar is declining amid dovish US Fed assumptions....
All eyes remain on the US CPI report
Powell's caution on weakening labor market conditions suggested that a September rate cut is likely just around the corner, which once again brought down the US dollar along with US Treasury yields.
Softer US annual CPI data or a surprise decline in monthly inflation could confirm the September Fed rate cut and increase the chances of another rate cut in December. And vice versa...
Technically, buyers are pushing up to 2387. A break of resistance will open the way to 2400-2437. But, there could be a correction before that
Resistance levels: 2387
Support levels: 2378, 2370
Favorable news can strengthen the movement, in which case the resistance breakout is not to be missed. But, unexpected data may shake the market, the dollar may continue its strengthening phase and in this case gold will head towards 2350.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;)
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD → The morning gap is bought out. The bulls are aggressiveFX:EURUSD opens with a gap down, but buyers are actively buying back the move. The nature of the market is bullish, but at the same time consolidation, as there is strong resistance ahead.
The fundamental background is favorable, there is no news today. Last week traders took well the fact of unemployment growth, within the framework of which active buying started.
Technically, on H4 a bullish distribution is forming towards 1.085, from which, after the initial testing of the liquidity area, a correction may follow. But in general, I expect the continuation of growth (rebound from 1.0816 or breakdown of 1.085).
Resistance levels: 1.0852, 1.091, 1.1
Support levels: 1.0816, 1.078
The nature of the market is changing and the bulls are actively holding key areas. The market is bullish and a breakout of the nearest resistance will favor the continuation of growth.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → An intermediate bottom of 2350 is forming. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is testing 2350, gathering liquidity below this zone. Bulls are actively holding the defense above the key area and the overall picture looks promising.... BUT!
Powell's speech continues today ahead of CPI and PPI. Things are heating up, the slightest hint of an unpredictable outcome could shake the market.
For now, there are some positive signs after Powell's words:
- Keeping rates high for too long could jeopardize growth in the U.S. economy
- A rate hike is unlikely to be the next step
- The Fed has made significant progress in bringing inflation down to the 2% target, recent monthly numbers show modest further progress
- Fed needs more favorable inflation data to cut rates
Overall, traders are not getting enough of this, the market is in consolidation and no one is in a hurry to take premature action yet. We are waiting for today's comments of the Fed chief.
Technically, gold is showing bullish dynamics after the bulls did not let the price go beyond 2350. The price is consolidating above the key level of 2365 and testing the area of interest and liquidity of 2375-2380. A breakout and consolidation of the price above this area may further strengthen the price, as the promising target, at the moment, is 2387 - 23400.
Resistance levels: 2373, 2380
Support levels: 2365, 2355, 2350
A bounce to the downside before further growth is possible, but price consolidation above the key zones could form an interim bottom for the bulls. All emphasis on Powell's comments.....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;)
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD → The bulls are coming back. Trend change. Target 1.1FX:EURUSD is breaking the downtrend pattern on a smooth change of fundamental background. Traders are selling off the dollar, which is favorable for the euro.
A local bullish pattern is forming on D1 on the background of the global downtrend. Strong fundamental background is favorable for the strengthening of the currency pair.
On H4, the price is correcting after updating the local maximum and consolidates above the level formed by the gap. Bulls are trying to keep the defense above this area. The key focus is on the breakout of the 1.0816 zone. This will open the way to the zones of interest: liquidity and imbalance. Today is a day off in the US, the fundamentals are still in place, trading may be calm.
Resistance levels: 1.0816, 1.0852, 1.0916
Support levels: 1.078, 1.073
I expect the trend to continue, as traders are showing interest in the market. Local ATH may become a potential target for MM
Regards R. Linda!
NZDUSD → Traders believe in the best outcome. NFP aheadFX:NZDUSD strengthens after a false breakdown. The change of the fundamental background leads to a change in the character of the market. Traders are looking at a breakout of 0.614 and growth in the future, but ahead of NFP...
On D1 the price is not going to leave the sideways range yet, as we are told by the false breakdown and return to the channel with the subsequent formation of the impulse. Technically, on H4 a pre-breakdown consolidation is forming and the price is gradually pushing up to resistance, which may lead to a breakout and further growth.
Fundamentally, based on previous data, traders expect Friday's employment report to show only 189K new jobs compared to 270,000 in the previous month, and unemployment to remain flat. But it's worth paying attention to the actual data. As a mild reminder of slowing economic growth could weigh heavily on the Fed.
Resistance levels: 0.614
Support levels: 0.61, 0.608
Technically traders believe in the continuation of the growth. A break of resistance may trigger a rally. But unpredictable news may change the market mood and in this case active selling may start.
Regards R. Linda!
HelenP. I Bitcoin can continue to decline to $50K pointsHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Some time ago price entered to consolidation, where it at once rebounded from resistance 1, which coincided with the resistance zone, and started to grow to resistance 2, which is the top part of the range. After the price reached this part, it little declined and some time traded near, after which backed up to resistance 2 and started to decline near the trend line. Bitcoin in a short time declined to resistance 1 and made a fake breakout, after which turned around and rebounded up, thereby breaking the trend line. But soon, the price turned around and made a strong impulse down, thereby exiting from consolidation and breaking resistance 1 with the trend line again. Just now, BTC continues to decline, so, I expect that BTCUSDT will make a small movement up to the trend line, but not reach it, after which turn around and continue to decline. Therefore I set my goal at 50000 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
GOLD → A change in mood amidst the comments and newsGOLD is testing the previously broken channel boundary. The market maker is driving the price into the liquidity area before the strong news. Powell corrected the direction a bit within yesterday's speech
The chance of a September interest rate cut rises after Fed Chair Powell acknowledged progress on disinflation. Jeremy reverses course slightly to dovish. Markets are awaiting the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting (due later today) to get more information on the Fed's next steps. The regulator needs more data before it can start cutting rates.
Data from the US labor sector is also in focus:
All eyes now turn to ADP's US employment change report after JOLTS showed a rise in job openings on Tuesday.
The next important event for the gold price remains the minutes of the June 11-12 Federal Reserve meeting, which could shed light on the central bank's outlook on rates and inflation, having a significant impact on the value of the U.S. dollar and the gold price.
Resistance levels: 2346, 2352, 2363, 2380
Support levels: 2341, 2328, 2319
Technically, we have buyers appearing on the local change of fundamental background. The bulls are winning within the consolidation. There is a possibility of strengthening, but we should pay attention to the news....
Regards R. Linda!
UNFI → Resistance Retest. Ready for a breakthroughBINANCE:UNFIUSDT is showing positive dynamics amid the red cryptocurrency market. The coin is approaching strong resistance and we have the potential to catch a breakout with subsequent growth.
On the weekly timeframe, the coin is still in consolidation (range 16.0 - 2.5). But, against the background of the general neutral trend we have a downward resistance, which is once again being retested. A pre-breakout consolidation is formed against the wedge resistance, due to which an attempt to break the line and further strengthening can be formed. An initial test of resistance may lead to a small bounce, but a quick retest will increase the chances of a breakout.
Support levels: 3.281
Resistance levels: 5.716
I expect the formation of a local consolidation with a gradual push to the resistance of the wedge and further breakout.
Regards R. Linda!
About The FX Crash & Cash IndicatorThe FX Cash & Crash Breakout indicator is a powerful Forex trading indicator on TradingView. Crash (consolidation or ranging market) and Cash (breakout from consolidation into a long or short trade).
It uses Heikin Ashi candle bars in combination with real price on the hourly chart to smooth price fluctuations and identify early range-bound price action breakouts. Consecutive gray bars indicate a crash move into a sideways market. A breakout occurs when it goes from a sideways market to either either green or red bars indicating the opportunity to cash in on a trending short or long market opportunity. While primarily designed for intraday trading, it can also be utilized for swing trading. It's crucial to use strict trading discipline, gain basic knowledge of trading practices, and focus on risk management. This indicator was created to enhance your marketing strategy.
Russel 2000 - Consolidation into Q3
Hey Guys,
For this Index the Consolidation period has been there since the big Engulfing Candle on the Yearly Chart happened in 22.
To become bullish again Russel has to move beyond 2280 (-1625 is the lower end with a mid-point of 1940)…
Until then I will take a neutral bias towards this Index. Most likely we will consolidate on the 3D Chart between the two white lines - Demand and Supply Lines from the Quarterly Chart. Keep in mind that the Blue Box is the High of 23 and the Red Box Constitutes the Middle Line of 22.
I am looking to go long from the lower part and short from the upper part of the Consolidation - until a break occurs.
Normally I would enter on the 4h or 2h Chart but I will break it down to the 1H Chart because I like to take entries from there (Risk - Reward wise).
Thanks for reading
GBPCAD → Trend Change. The fall may continue to 1.710OANDA:GBPCAD breaks the uptrend, a bearish rally is forming and the price is testing local support. A break of the liquidity area will renew the sell-off against a weaker GBP and a rising CAD.
Pound sterling is moving from accumulation to realization and downward distribution on the background of expectations that the UK central bank will start an earlier interest rate cut relative to the US Fed. The Canadian, on the contrary, is growing on the background of monetary policy tightening in the country.
The resistance at 1.7336 plays a key role for the currency pair at the moment. A false breakdown (touching the SMA) is possible before the subsequent price drop, a breakdown of 1.7297 will strengthen the sell-off.
Resistance levels: 1.7336, 1.7387, 1.7415.
Support levels: 1.7297, 1.7228
I expect consolidation in the local range, which may turn into a phase of further decline. Key liquidity zones are 1.7228 - 1.7085.
Regards R. Linda!
NIKKEI225 Forms A Bullish Triangle? Elliott Wave AnalysisNIKKEI225 is moving in a strong five-wave impulsive bullish cycle, which looks to be unfinished. Currently we can see it consolidating and it can be forming and potentially finishing a bullish triangle pattern in wave (4), which can push the price even higher for wave (5) from Elliott wave perspective.
Bullish confirmation is above 40k, while invalidation level remains at 34k.
XAUUSD 1H - Consolidations Trading Setups - C.I.R.C. MethodThe chart above showcases various consolidations and their formation dynamics.
Consolidation, Initiation, Retracement, Continuation (CIRC)
Consolidations
What are “consolidations”?
Consolidations, often labeled as “ranges” in mainstream trading, hold a deeper meaning at T.T.T. Here, consolidations are the playgrounds of the BFI, zones where prices oscillate between highs and lows, as illustrated below. Within these confines, intentions simmer as BFI stack orders to propel future price movements. We confidently trade consolidations, fully aware of the intricate dynamics unfolding within the market’s underbelly.
XAUUSD 15M - Consolidations Trading Setups - C.I.R.C. MethodThe chart above showcases various consolidations and their formation dynamics.
Consolidation, Initiation, Retracement, Continuation (CIRC)
Consolidations
What are “consolidations”?
Consolidations, often labeled as “ranges” in mainstream trading, hold a deeper meaning at T.T.T. Here, consolidations are the playgrounds of the BFI, zones where prices oscillate between highs and lows, as illustrated below. Within these confines, intentions simmer as BFI stack orders to propel future price movements. We confidently trade consolidations, fully aware of the intricate dynamics unfolding within the market’s underbelly.
XAUUSD 1H - Consolidations Trading Setups - C.I.R.C. MethodThe chart above showcases various consolidations and their formation dynamics.
Consolidation, Initiation, Retracement, Continuation (CIRC)
Consolidations
What are “consolidations”?
Consolidations, often labeled as “ranges” in mainstream trading, hold a deeper meaning at T.T.T. Here, consolidations are the playgrounds of the BFI, zones where prices oscillate between highs and lows, as illustrated below. Within these confines, intentions simmer as BFI stack orders to propel future price movements. We confidently trade consolidations, fully aware of the intricate dynamics unfolding within the market’s underbelly.
NZDUSD → Local trend change? Moving down ↓ ?OANDA:NZDUSD breaks trend support amid a strong dollar. The currency pair could move to the downside if the bears hold the resistance area on their count.
On the daily timeframe, the currency pair is inside the sideways channel, but at the same time breaks the ascending support line. Thus, the market is starting to look towards 0.6084 support as an area of interest.
The US market has a day off today, so the volatility may be low, but nevertheless we have prerequisites for the beginning of the downward movement. If the bears keep the price below 0.6150-0.6140, the market may enter the phase of downward movement and head towards such targets as: 0.6083, 0.6000.
Resistance levels: 0.6140, 0.6170, 0.6215
Support levels: 0.6083, 0.6000
At the moment the market is struggling for the area of 0.6140. Consolidation below the level or the beginning of the impulse to the support will confirm that the bears are holding the market, then we will have to wait for the achievement of the goals.
Regards R. Linda!