Get started

Consumer

CDSP peaks are a possible lagging indicator of recession startsThe new CDSP numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) . Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to @FXEvolution for the article. DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes. If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500 What to do: If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.
FRED:CDSP
by MayaUndefined
TATA CONSUMER ANALYSIS!!the red line, will be soon breached, if markets be in a bullish nature, or will be breached after being volatile for some time and then move upside. blue lines are the levels. the green line is a great support, which stock being volatile, then will not breach this green support, and volume might be seen to be increasing. and the dark black line is the actually trend what the stock should follow. the stock is trading near its MA(50,100), so there is a moving which is yet to come. tata consumer is been diversifying its products, and has been establishing its consumer value in the market. great company, and FMCG sector is also being great enough. its a bit discounted, and TATA CONSUMER will be a part it when nifty fmcg indice will give its impulsive move. (check below the analysis of HUL company).
NSE:TATACONSUMLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
Target - Corporate earnings season resemblant of the bear marketYesterday, Target announced its earnings for the third quarter of 2022. The report outlined softening sales and profit trends with downgraded guidance going forward. Total revenue and cost of sales increased year over year, while net earnings and EPS fell dramatically for that same period. Subsequently, shares of Target fell more than 13% in the pre-market trading. Target is yet another company that fulfills our prediction about a weak corporate earnings season and progression into the second phase of the bear market. We expect this trend to worsen in the next earning season and further enforce our thesis. Total revenue = $26.518 billion (+3.4% YoY) Cost of sales = $19.680 billion (+8.1% YoY) GAAP Earnings per share = $1.54 (-49.3% YoY) Operating income = $1.022 billion (-49.2% YoY) Net earnings = $712 million (-52.1% YoY) Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of Target. Yellow arrows indicate previous earnings reports and subsequent price action. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic reversed to the downside. MACD flattens, and if it breaks below 0 points, it will bolster the bearish case. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic show signs of exhaustion. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:TGTShort
by Tradersweekly
6
Fed may destroy Oil Demand - Stay CautiousAs soon as the US Fed shifted into rate increases - traders should have suddenly elevated their protection tactics. The Fed's objective is to beat inflation and remove the easy money mentality. In order to do that, they may have to break consumers, industry, global economics, and the general demand cycle for cars, homes, credit/debt, and more. What happens when the Fed raises rates to a point where the global economy comes to a crashing halt? Consumers react by pausing or stalling travel/spending plans - creating demand destruction for Oil, Lumber, and other commodities. In my opinion, it is just a matter of time before Crude Oil collapses downward, headed into a typical seasonal cycle (winter). I believe we may be entering a period of very dangerous demand destruction as the US Fed may have pushed rates too high (again). Stock up. Things could get really WONKY. Follow my research.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BradMatheny
$PEP Pepsi: RSI Suggests We Go to ATHPepsi has key earnings this week which should receive a nice tailwind from it's RSI setup. The 100 session RSI on large timeframes indicate the stock is highly oversold relative to usual times. Historically, such levels on the RSI produce a 15% rally in the following three months. furthermore we are trading at the bottom of a channel, giving me further confidence in a long to retest the highs of the channel. yellow dotted lines: Key volume support white dotted lines: Key technical support blue lines: channel
NASDAQ:PEPLong
by zimeaBlue
Microsoft (MSFT) bullish scenario:The technical figure Flag can be found in the daily chart in the US company Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). Microsoft Corporation is an American multinational technology corporation which produces computer software, consumer electronics, personal computers, and related services. Its best-known software products are the Windows line of operating systems, the Microsoft Office suite, and the Internet Explorer and Edge web browsers. Its flagship hardware products are the Xbox video game consoles and the Microsoft Surface lineup of touchscreen personal computers. The Flag broke through the resistance line on 05/10/2022. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 9 days towards 260.20 USD. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 235.20 USD if you decide to enter this position. Investors will be hoping for strength from Microsoft as it approaches its next earnings release. In that report, analysts expect Microsoft to post earnings of $2.31 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 1.76%. In terms of valuation, Microsoft is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 24.74. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 23.21, which means Microsoft is trading at a premium to the group. Meanwhile, MSFT's PEG ratio is currently 2.11. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. The Computer - Software was holding an average PEG ratio of 2.04 at yesterday's closing price. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by legacyFXofficial
RTN:Lucrative risk reward!They recently agreed to acquire a Mexican style restaurant for £7 mil. With inflation expected to go slightly higher than current levels, consumer spending will definitely go down. Despite this I expect bulls to come in and support the share and catapult it higher from these levels its currently trading at. We are currently close to the all time lows and price action created a bullish formation on the weekly last week. I look to buy last week's close with ultimate target being the £80.00 zone. Will however take some off the table around the £60.00 zone. Total R is 4.35.
RLong
by taftrader
How to manage Capital in an Economic DownturnThe Great Recession is not the first time that the economy has experienced downturn or recession. The last one occurred during the early 1980s, and it caused unemployment to spike and home prices to drop. However, that doesn’t mean that a similar situation cannot happen again. The effects of a recession have lasting implications for consumers and businesses. When consumers have less money to spend on goods and services, businesses must make adjustments in order to remain profitable. In fact, recessions can lead to innovation in industries like technology where creative minds come up with cheaper solutions for everyday problems. Here’s a look at how consumers are affected by recessions, what they’re doing about it, as well as how you can manage your money in these challenging times. What Happens When the Economy Recovers? When the economy recovers from a recession, there are typically two ways that consumers spend their money. One way is that consumers continue to spend on the same products and services that they bought before the recession. The other spending trend that occurs during a recovery is that consumers change the products and services that they spend money on. The reason for this change in spending habits is that consumers have changed their priorities during the recession. When a recession has caused consumers to have less disposable income, they tend to make their money go further. When consumers have less disposable income, they can no longer afford to spend money on certain products and services. The Impact of a Recession on Consumers A recession can have a lasting impact on consumers. Consumers who experience a recession tend to have less confidence in their ability to manage their money. This can cause lasting damage to their credit scores as they seek out lower interest loans or take out a repayment plan. A recession can also impact a consumer’s career and ability to earn a living wage. When a recession occurs, businesses have to make changes to remain profitable. This might include laying off employees or reducing the hours that part-time workers are scheduled for. A recession can impact consumers’ ability to buy a home as well. Mortgage rates tend to be higher during a recession as investors seek out higher returns because of the increased risk of default. Consumer Responses During a Recession When a recession occurs, consumers are likely to make changes to their spending habits in order to save money. The first thing that consumers are likely to do is reduce discretionary spending. Discretionary spending is the money that is spent on entertainment activities, eating out at restaurants, shopping for luxury items, and on travel. Another common response of consumers during a recession is to change how they get their services. When a recession occurs, consumers are likely to change how they get their banking, insurance , and healthcare services as well as how they pay their bills. How Consumers Can Manage Their Money in a Recession The best way for consumers to manage their money during a recession is to make a budget. A budget for spending should include all of the money that goes out of your bank account each month as well as how much money comes into your account. When making a budget, it is important to consider your expenses and income to see if there is any room in your budget to make changes. This can include looking at your monthly expenses and trying to reduce the amount that you spend on certain items. When you are making a budget, it is important to keep in mind that you will have to change it as time goes on. As your income changes, you may have more or less money available to spend each month. Likewise, you may also have more or less expenses to pay each month. Investing in the Stock Market: The stock market is one of the riskiest investments you can make. It’s also one of the most profitable when things go right. The stock market has its ups and downs, but it always rebounds in the long run. Even during a recession, savvy investors know how to make money in the stock market by investing in stocks and other types of securities. Investing in the stock market may seem intimidating at first, but it’s not as complicated as you think! In this Educational article, we’ll show you how to invest in the stock market if you have less than $5,000 to invest. With these tips and tricks to invest in a recession, you’ll be on your way to becoming a successful investor with an impressive portfolio sooner than you think! How to invest in the stock market with $5,000 Before you dive head first into the stock market, it’s important to know how much you have to invest. While the stock market can be rewarding, it’s also one of the riskiest investments you can make. Investing in the stock market is all about risk and reward — the more risk you take, the bigger your reward can be. Investing in the stock market requires at least $5,000 in order to diversify your portfolio. Diversification is key to long-term success in the stock market. Rather than putting all of your eggs in one basket, diversification allows you to spread your funds across many different investments. Diversification is key When you’re investing in the stock market, it’s important to diversify your portfolio. Diversification allows you to spread your funds across many different investments for two reasons: risk reduction and opportunity enhancement. Risk reduction is accomplished by not putting all of your funds into one investment. Instead, you’re spreading the funds across different types of investments. Opportunity enhancement allows you to take advantage of different types of growth opportunities. Understand why you’re investing Before you invest in the stock market, it’s important to understand why you’re investing in the first place. If you’re investing for growth, you’re looking for stocks that are currently undervalued to increase in value over time. If you’re investing for income, you’re looking for stocks that pay dividends. Take advantage of no-fee investments When you invest in the stock market, you pay fees for the management of your portfolio. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are mutual funds that are pre-packaged and purchased as a single unit. Mutual funds are professionally managed funds that are offered by financial institutions, whereas ETFs are professionally managed funds that are traded on a stock exchange. If you’re investing a small amount of money in the stock market, you’re better off choosing mutual funds or ETFs that have no or low management fees. Mutual funds and ETFs with no or low management fees are often referred to as no-load funds. Shorting ETFs can be profitable (This strategy is best suitable for Professional Traders) Shorting ETFs can be profitable if you’re investing a large amount of money in the stock market. Shorting ETFs allows you to profit from a declining market. Shorting ETFs is a very risky investment strategy and is not recommended for beginners. If you’re interested in shorting ETFs, be sure to talk to a financial advisor before making any investments. Additional Note: When the global economy is on the verge of recession, investors are scared and their first thought is to run towards things that are safe. In recent years, markets have grown to distrust risky investments such as stocks and other volatile assets. When the global economy is about to go into recession, commodities like gold and oil usually become hot properties for investors wanting to preserve their capital. There are a number of asset classes that thrive during a recession: real estate, bonds, and value stocks—or anything with a low correlation to the stock market. However, at the same time there are also some that suffer: high-beta stocks; growth stocks; growth real estate; luxury goods; emerging market equities; and anything else with a high correlation to the stock market. In our next article we will analyze Gold and Silver as an hedge against inflation and their performance in an economic downturn. Conclusion The recession that took place in the early 2000s is a great example of how a recession can change the way consumers spend their money. During this recession, consumers were likely to spend more money on food and clothing since those were necessities that consumers could not do without. When the next recession occurs, consumers may change their spending habits once again. However, it is important to remember that a recession is a natural part of the business cycle. It is likely that consumers will continue to spend their money in the future even in the face of a recession. Investing in the stock market is a smart way to diversify your investment portfolio. It’s also a great way to earn passive income through dividends. The best way to invest in the stock market if you have less than $5,000 to invest is through mutual funds or ETFs with no or low management fees. Shorting ETFs can also be a great way to make money in a recession if you have a large amount of funds to invest. Even though the technical definition of a recession has been changed/modified it is important to know that unemployment rate determines the condition of a recession.
SP:SPXEducation
by EQTSHARES
XLY XLP factors for 2022 and beyondQuick review of the spending habits over last the years since i published my first chart... covid craziness brought the chart heavily into the XLP 'stable needs' but a huge rebound into the luxury spending, probably due to the rich getting richer and all that crazy covid money and legal scams of the mega rich energy price increases and inflation has knobbled that spike and brought it way back down to earth with a lengthy recession in sight its good to review markets on these levels have a great summer, stay sane with all the relentless BS spouted from the MSM everyday! if u feel under the weather, throw out your Te'lie'vision
AMEX:XLY
by majorlee
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by geoffreyip523
Be ready for BIg Target in Godrej CP Be ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGETBe ready for BBBIIIIIGGGGGGGG TTTARRGET Godrej CP
NSE:GODREJCPLong
by Hardikjethwa
Rare Buying Opportunity: Unilever (UL)This is a yearly chart of Unilever over the past 50+ years (non-logarithmic). The orange line is a smoothened 9-year moving average. This line provides the most conservative price at which Unilever will likely close the year (about 6% higher than the current price). The 9-year smoothened moving average has never failed to provide support in the past nearly half-century. This is a rare buying opportunity for long-term investors who want to buy and hold assets for years. Unilever is a high-dividend stock and the price of the stock will likely grow steadily for years to come. This long-term growth analysis has been validated by the Wave Trend Oscillator by @LazyBear. This extremely accurate oscillator indicates that Unilver's monthly price is overextended to the downside even more than the low of the Great Recession and that the downtrend will likely come to an end in the coming months if it has not yet already. Please share your thoughts below. Not financial advice. As always anything can happen and trends can end. Invest at your own risk.
NYSE:ULLong
by SpyMasterTrades
2
Rare Buying Opportunity for AEOThis monthly chart for American Eagle Outfitters ( AEO ) shows a clear non-logarithmic trend line that has continued throughout the history of the company's existence on the exchange (except briefly during COVID lockdowns). The green shaded area is a definite buy area for long-term investors. This linear trend held up during the Great Recession when 10% of the population was unemployed, and there is no reason to believe that economic circumstances are worse now than in the Great Recession, such as to expect the 25-year trend to end. Similar to VFC , this is another high dividend stock that is sitting in a relatively rare buying zone. Based on my charting analysis, I believe that this stock will likely end 2022 about 25% higher than the current price. So based on the charts, I expect to get about a 25% return on investment in addition to a 5% dividend by the end of the year. Not financial advice. As always nothing is ever guaranteed. Trends can end.
NYSE:AEOLong
by SpyMasterTrades