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AUD/USD edges lower, confidence data nextThe Australian dollar lost ground earlier in the day but has pared these losses. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6381, down 0.05%. The markets are braced for a deceleration in consumer and business confidence indicators, which will be released on Tuesday. Westpac consumer confidence change is expected to decline by 0.7% in October, following a 1.5% decline in September. Consumers remain pessimistic about the economic outlook, and the index, which is currently at 79.7, has been below the neutral 100 level since March 2022. The NAB business confidence index is expected to fall to -2 in September, after improving to 2 in August, the highest level since January. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged last week and will meet next on November 7th. This provides the central bank time to evaluate key data, including third-quarter inflation later this month. The RBA has paused for four straight times but can't start to think about trimming rates until inflation, which rose to 5.2% in August, is closer to the 2%-3% target range. US nonfarm payrolls soared in September, with a huge increase of 336,000. This crushed the market consensus of 170,000 and the upwardly revised August reading of 227,000. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, compared to the market consensus of 3.7%. Wage growth decelerated in September - from 0.3% to 0.2% m/m and from 4.3% to 4.2% y/y. This is another sign that inflation is easing. The blowout nonfarm payrolls led to the Fed futures market increasing the odds of a rate increase before the end of the year, which currently stands at 31%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed has been signalling that rates will remain "higher for longer" and traders are concerned that the Fed's scenario could play out, especially with the US posting strong releases such as Friday's nonfarm payrolls. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6372. Below, there is support at 0.6299 There is resistance at 0.6430 and 0.6531
by fisherkj4
AUD/USD extends losses, CPI loomsThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6405, down 0.28%. Australia releases the CPI report on Wednesday. In July, CPI eased to 4.9%, beating expectations and dropping to the lowest inflation rate since February 2022. CPI is expected to rise to 5.2% in August. Inflation remains more than double the 2% target, and the core rate is also high, with the trimmed mean dropping from 6.0% to 5.6% in August. The RBA has raised rates to 4.1%, the highest level since 2012. Have interest rates peaked? That is the thousand-dollar question. The futures markets have priced in a final rate hike before the end of the year at 35%, as investors are betting the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely done with rate tightening. The Australian economy has cooled off as a result of the RBA's tightening, and the slowdown in China could tip the economy into a recession if rates were to move higher. The central bank is understandably more hawkish, as policy makers don't want to close the door on further tightening with inflation still well above the target. The new RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock, has warned that the door remains open to further rate hikes and said that upcoming decisions will be based on key data. The RBA minutes from the September meeting indicated that members considered a rate hike, but in the end, opted to pause rates. In the US, Consumer Board (CB) Consumer Confidence slipped to 103.0 in August, down sharply from a revised July read of 108.7 and shy of the market consensus of 105.5. This marked a 4-month low. Consumers noted concern over rising gasoline prices and high interest rates and the percentage of consumers who expect a recession rose in September, according to the CB. This does not bode well for consumer spending, a key driver of US growth. AUD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6380. The next support line is 0.6320 There is resistance at 0.6446 and 0.6506
by OANDA
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GBP/USD extends losses on mixed UK dataThe British pound is in negative territory after two days of losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2245, down 0.40%. The struggling pound is down 1.1% this week and is trading at its lowest levels since late March. It is a busy day on the data calendar for UK releases. Retail sales rose in August by 0.4% m/m, following a 1.1% decline in July and was just shy of the market consensus of 0.5%. The sharp decline in July was largely due to unusually wet weather. On an annual basis, retail sales fell by 1.4%, compared to -3.1% in July. Consumer spending has been in a nasty rut, as annualized retail sales have now declined for 17 straight months. The silver lining was that the -1.4% drop marked the slowest pace of contraction in the current streak. The September PMIs were a mixed bag. The Services PMI slowed to 47.2 in September, down from 49.5 in August and missing the consensus estimate of 49.2. This marked a second straight deceleration and the sharpest contraction since January 2021. The Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.2 in September, up from 43.0 in August and above the consensus estimate of 43.0. The decline in activity in both services and manufacturing points to a UK economy that continues to cool. The Bank of England, which held interest rates on Thursday, will be hoping that the slowdown translates into lower inflation and that it can continue to hold interest rates. UK consumer confidence remains low, but there was a bit of an improvement in September. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to -21, up from -25 in August and beating the consensus estimate of -27. This was the highest reading since January 2022, but the economy has a long way to go before consumers show optimism about the economic outlook. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2267. The next support level is 1.2156 There is resistance at 1.2325 and 1.2436
by OANDA
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Euro takes a tumble after ECB's hikeThe euro has steadied on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0665, up 0.20%. The European Central Bank's rate decision went right down to the wire on Wednesday. It was unclear whether the central bank would hike or hold, with strong reasons to support each position. In the end, the ECB opted to hike, choosing the fight against inflation over the threat of recession. The ECB raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4.0%, but the euro responded with sharp losses. The reason? The ECB rate statement signalled that the rate-tightening cycle is likely over, which sent the euro and eurozone bond yields lower and European stocks higher. EUR/USD fell 0.80% on Wednesday and dropped as low as 1.0631, its lowest level since March. ECB policy makers have been grappling with a dilemma, which made the rate decision so difficult to call. Inflation is running at a 5.3% clip, more than double the target rate of 2%, but high borrowing costs and the slowdown in China have weighed heavily on eurozone growth. In the eurozone, the services sector has been weakening and manufacturing continues to contract. Germany, the traditional locomotive of the eurozone, is likely in recession and is struggling with an inflation rate of 6.1%. Against this background of high inflation and sluggish growth, the ECB opted for a 'dovish hike', with the rate statement noting that rates have likely reached the peak level. Lagarde didn't shed any light on the ECB's rate path, but the futures markets brought forward expectations of a rate cut to June 2024, compared to September 2024 before the rate decision. Lagarde stated at a follow-up press conference that it's too early to say that rates have not peaked, but the markets beg to differ and are already looking ahead to rate cuts, which indicates some dissonance between the stances of the central bank and the markets. In the US, the week wraps up with two tier-1 events. The Empire State Manufacturing Index, which plunged to -19 in August, is expected to improve to -10 points. UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to dip to 69.1, down from 69.5 and inflation expectations are projected to remain unchanged at 3.5%. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0654. Next, there is resistance at 1.0732 There is support at 1.0609 and 1.0531
by OANDA
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EUR/USD eyes German, Eurozone CPI reportThe euro's mini-rally has run out of steam. EUR/USD climbed 0.80% over the past two days but is trading in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0867, down 0.11%. The markets will be keeping a close eye on European inflation releases today and Thursday. Germany releases the July CPI report later today, with a consensus estimate of 6.0%, compared to 6.2% in July. The once-formidable German juggernaut is in trouble and inflation remains high. The eurozone releases July CPI on Thursday, which is expected to drop from 5.3% to 5.1%. The ECB meets next on September 14th and ECB President Lagarde may have signalled that another rate hike is coming. Lagarde attended the Jackson Hole summit last week and said that interest rates would remain high "as long as necessary" in order to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. Lagarde's hawkish remarks were more hawkish than her comments at the July meeting, where she said that ECB policy makers had an "open mind" about the September decision. There's no arguing that eurozone inflation remains too high, but the argument against raising rates even higher is that the eurozone economy is not in great shape, and nine straight rate hikes from the ECB have cooled economic growth. Further hikes could tip the economy into a recession, which means that the ECB has its work cut out in deciding whether to raise rates again or take a pause in September. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at next week's meeting, and disappointing data on Tuesday may have cemented a pause. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 106.1 in July, compared to 116.0 in August, marking a two-year low. As well, JOLTS Jobs Openings slowed to 8.82 million in July, down from 9.16 million in June and well off the estimate of 9.46 million. This was the sixth decline in the past seven months, a sign that the resilient US labour market is showing cracks. EUR/USD is putting strong pressure on resistance at 1.0896. The next resistance line is 1.0996 1.0831 and 1.0731 are providing support
by OANDA
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Australian dollar edges up ahead of inflation reportThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6437, up 0.12% on the day. China's economic slowdown is bad news for the Australian economy, which counts China as its biggest export market. China's imports have been falling and as a result, commodity prices have dropped, hurting Australia's exports of iron ore and gold to China. China continues to record weak economic numbers and this will likely be reflected in lower GDP releases, although economic growth is above 5%. The Australian dollar is sensitive to China's economic strength and has declined by around 3% in the third quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on September 5th and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.10% for a second straight month. There are clear signs of the economy cooling, including inflation and wage growth easing and a slight rise in unemployment. The RBA would like to extend the pause in rate hikes, with an eye on lowering rates sometime in 2024. All eyes will be on Australia's July inflation report which will be released on Wednesday. Inflation has been falling, albeit slowly. In June, inflation fell from 5.5% to 5.4% and the consensus estimate for July is 5.2%. If inflation drops to 5.2% or lower, it should cement a RBA pause in September. A higher rate than 5.2% won't necessarily mean a rate hike, but it would likely lower the odds of a pause, which are currently around 90%. In the US, it is a busy Tuesday with consumer confidence and employment releases. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index has been on the rise and soared to 117.0 in July, up from 110.1 in June. The estimate for August is 116.0 points. JOLTS Job Openings is projected to decelerate for a second straight month in July, from 9.58 million to 9.46 million. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6424 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6360 There is resistance at 0.6470 and 0.6531
by OANDA
GBP/USD rises ahead of UK retail salesThe British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2772, up 0.32%. The UK will wrap up a busy week with retail sales on Friday. The July report is expected to show a decline in consumer spending. Headline retail sales are expected to fall by 0.5% after a 0.7% gain in May and core retail sales are projected to decline by 0.7% after a 0.8% increase in May. The June numbers were higher than expected despite high inflation, helped by record-hot weather. Will the July data also surprise to the upside? The UK consumer has been grappling with the highest inflation in the G7 club, which means shoppers are getting less for their money. This has dampened consumption, a key driver of the economy. Energy prices are lower, thanks to the energy price cap, but food inflation continues to soar and was 17.4% y/y in June. Consumer confidence has been mired deep in negative territory and the GfK consumer confidence index, which will be released later today, is expected at -29, almost unchanged from the previous release of -30 points. The Bank of England would like to follow some of the other major central banks that are in a pause phase, but the grim inflation picture may force the BoE to keep raising interest rates, which could tip the weak economy into a recession. Wage growth jumped to 7.8% in the three months to June, up from 7.5% in the previous period. In July, headline CPI fell to 6.9%, down sharply from 7.9%, but core CPI remains sticky, and was unchanged at 6.9%. The data points to a wage-price spiral which could impede the BoE's efforts to curb inflation. The Federal Reserve remains concerned about high inflation and said that additional rate hikes might be needed, according to the minutes of the July meeting. At the meeting, the Fed raised rates by 0.25%, a move that was widely anticipated. Most members "continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy". At the same, time, members expressed uncertainty over the future rate path since there were signs that inflationary pressures could be easing. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2787. The next resistance line is 1.2879  1.2726 and 1.2634 are providing support
by OANDA
Australian dollar edges higher after mixed confidence dataThe New Zealand dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday, trading at 0.6060 in the European session. Like most major central banks, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been waging a long and tough battle against inflation by raising interest rates. CPI fell to 6.0% in the second quarter, down from 6.7%. That's certainly good news, but let's remember that inflation is still rising sharply and is much higher than the RBNZ's 2% target. The central bank is also concerned about inflation expectations, which can become embedded when inflation is high and translate into even higher inflation. Wednesday's 2-year inflation expectations release showed a rise to 2.83% in the third quarter, up from 2.79% in the second quarter. One-year inflation expectations fell to 4.17% in Q3, down from 4.17% in Q2. The data indicates that inflation expectations remain high, and that perception could make the life of policy makers more difficult in the fight to bring down inflation. The RBNZ has a long way to go before inflation falls to the 2% target, and that will likely mean further rate hikes unless inflation levels fall sharply. The RBNZ held rates at 5 .50% in July and meets next on August 16th. China is experiencing a bumpy recovery, and that is bad news for the global economy. Commodity currencies such as the New Zealand dollar are sensitive to Chinese economic releases and a soft Chinese trade release on Tuesday sent NZD/USD lower by as much as 80 basis points. The bad news continued on Wednesday as China's CPI for July declined by 0.3% y/y, down from 0.0% in June and just above the consensus estimate of -0.4%. This marked the first decrease in CPI since February 2021 and points to weakness in the Chinese economy, which will likely mean less demand for New Zealand exports, a negative scenario for the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD continues to put pressure on support at 0.6031. Below, there is support at 0.5964 0.6129 and 0.6196 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD climbs as key US inflation gauge ticks lowerEUR/USD is trading at 1.0872 in the European session, up 0.07%. The euro is under pressure and is down close to 100 pips since Tuesday. Inflation in the eurozone continues to fall. Eurozone CPI is expected to fall to 5.5% in June, down from 6.1% in May and a notch below the consensus of 5.6%. Headline inflation has fallen to its lowest level since January 2022. The problem for the ECB is that Core CPI, which is a more reliable gauge of inflation trends, moved the wrong way. Core CPI ticked higher to 5.4%, up from 5.3% and below the consensus of 5.5%. These levels of core inflation are incompatible with a 2% inflation target and today's inflation report won't prevent the ECB from delivering a rate hike in July. The ECB may be forced to increase rates beyond the July meeting until there is evidence that core inflation has turned the corner and shows clear signs of deceleration in the second half of the year. Germany's inflation report was worse, as both headline and core inflation moved higher, as expected. Headline inflation rose to 6.4% in June, up from 6.1% in May, while the core rate climbed from 5.4% to 5.8%. Inflation had fallen over six straight months and the June numbers could be an anomaly, but as ECB President Lagarde stated earlier this week, the battle against inflation isn't over yet. US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favourite inflation gauge, eased lower in May. The index dipped to 4.6% y/y, down from 4.7% in April, which was also the consensus. On a monthly basis, the index fell to 0.1%, down from 0.4%. The decline in inflation hasn't had much effect on market rate pricing, with an 86% probability of a 25-bp rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The week wraps up with UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to rise to 63.9 in June, up from 59.2 in May. EUR/USD continues to put pressure on resistance at 1.0916. This is followed by resistance at 1.0988 1.0822 and 1.0750 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/CAD pares gains, Canadian inflation easesThe Canadian dollar is flat on Friday, trading at 1.3258 in the European session. Canada releases GDP for May later on Friday. The consensus stands at 0.2% m/m, which translates into 2.4% annualized, a respectable gain. If the GDP report beats the consensus, the Canadian dollar could post gains. Canada's economy showed strength in the first quarter, with a gain of 3.1%. This was higher than expected and was one reason cited by the Bank of Canada in its surprise decision to raise rates earlier this month. I would expect that GDP growth will again be a key factor when the BoC makes its rate decision at the July 12th meeting. The BoC, like most other major central banks, has aggressively tackled high inflation by raising interest rates. The policy appears to be working, as headline inflation eased to 3.4% in May, down sharply from 4.4% in April. The core rate, which is comprised of three indicators, fell to an average of 3.8% in May, down from 4.2% a month earlier. The drop in inflation is certainly welcome news for the central bank, but the key question is whether inflation is falling fast enough for BoC policy makers. A third factor in the BoC's decision-making process will be employment. Canada's labour market has shown strong resilience in the face of rising interest rates, although the economy shed jobs in May, after eight straight months of gains. Another decline in new jobs could dampen the Bank's appetite for a rate hike in July. The US is coming off solid GDP and jobless claims data on Thursday and all eyes are on the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favourite inflation gauge. The index is expected to remain at 4.7% y/y, which would mean that inflation remains uncomfortably high compared to the target of 2%. We'll also get a look at UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to rise to 63.9 in June, up from 59.2 in May. USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3254. Next, there is resistance at 1.3328 1.3175 and 1.3066 are providing support
by OANDA
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EUR/USD - Will Lagarde shake up the euro?EUR/USD has edged lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0939, up 0.20%. The German GfK Consumer Sentiment report found that consumer confidence is expected to fall in July to -25.4, down from a downwardly revised -24.4 in June. The report noted that the German consumer is reluctant to spend due to economic uncertainty, and high inflation has eroded the purchasing power of households. The consumer confidence release comes on the heels of the German Ifo Business Climate index, which fell from 91.7 to 88.5 in June. This missed expectations and marked the index's lowest level this year. The weak confidence numbers highlight a persistent lack of confidence in the German economy. The ECB, which continues to signal that more rate hikes are coming, finds itself between a rock and a hard place. The Bank's number one priority is curbing inflation, which will require more rate hikes. However, tightening too quickly runs the risk of choking economic activity and tipping the German economy into a recession. How far will the ECB go in raising interest rates? Investors hope to get some clues from ECB President Lagarde later today when she participates in a panel on policy at the ECB bank forum in Sintra. Lagarde said on Tuesday that eurozone inflation remains too high and reiterated that ECB policy "needs to be decided meeting by meeting and has to remain data-dependent.” In the US, Tuesday's strong releases were further proof of a solid economy. Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales were higher and beat expectations, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence jumped in June from 102.5 to 109.7, its highest level since January 2022. These strong releases will provide support for the hawkish Fed, which is expected to raise rates in July and again in September or October. EUR/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.0916. Next, there is support at 1.0822 1.0988 and 1.1082 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD drifting lower ahead of RBA minutesThe Australian dollar has started the week with losses. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6848, down 0.39%. The Australian dollar gained 1.95% last week and has soared 5.2% in the month of June. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the June meeting on Tuesday. At the meeting, the Bank decided to raise rates by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark rate to 4.10%. This surprised the markets, which had expected the central bank to pause. Governor Lowe continued his hawkish stance after the decision, defending the interest rate as necessary since "upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased". Lowe has his hands full with sticky inflation, which rose in April from 6.3% to 6.8% y/y, above the consensus of 6.4%. The core rate fell from 6.9% to 6.5%, but this is much too high for the RBA, which has a target of 2%. The RBA has projected that inflation will not fall to 2% until mid-2025, leaving little doubt that the current rate-hike cycle is not close to wrapping up. The minutes should provide insights about the rate hike and what the central bank has planned moving forward. The RBA meets next on July 4th. The Fed is also very concerned with inflation but took a different approach, as it paused at last week's meeting after ten consecutive hikes. Fed policymakers got some good news on Friday, as UoM inflation expectations eased to 3.3% in June, down sharply from 4.2% in May and lower than the 4.1% consensus. Inflation expectations haven’t been this low since March 2021 and this is another indication that inflation is heading lower. The UoM Consumer Sentiment report climbed from 59.2 to 63.9, due to lower inflation expectations as well as the resolution of the banking crisis, according to the report. AUD /USD tested support at 0.6836 earlier. Next, there is support at 0.6729 0.6940 and 0.7004 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD flat as UK GDP a mixed bagGBP/USD is trading at 1.2517 in Europe, almost unchanged. In the UK, GDP declined by 0.3% in March m/m, below the 0.1% estimate and the February reading of 0.0%. Still, the economy managed to gain 0.1% in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4 2022 and matching the estimate. There was no surprise as the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 4.50%, its highest since 2008. This marked the twelfth consecutive hike in the current rate-tightening cycle, underscoring the BoE's pledge to curb hot inflation. Governor Bailey said after the rate announcement that Bank would "stay the course to make sure that inflation falls all the way back to the 2% target". Nobody is expecting that the road to 2% will be easy, with inflation currently in double digits. The BoE remains optimistic that inflation will fall rapidly during the year and will fall to 5% by the end of the year. In February, the BOE predicted 4% inflation by the end of the year. This seems like a tall order but is certainly possible if the rate hikes make themselves felt and cool the economy. There have been constant concerns that the BoE's aggressive rate policy would lead to a recession, and six months ago, the BoE had projected a recession. Bailey reversed course yesterday, saying that the drop in energy prices and stronger economic growth meant that GDP would expand by a weak 0.25% in 2023, versus the 0.5% contraction in the previous forecast. In the US, the economy is showing signs of cooling and high interest rates are expected to dampen the robust labour market. Unemployment claims surprised on the upside on Thursday, rising from 245,000 to 264,000, well above the estimate of 242,000. This is just one weekly report, but it's sure to raise speculation that the labour market is showing cracks. The US wraps up the week with UoM Consumer Confidence, which is pointing to a rather sour US consumer. The indicator fell to 63.5 in April and is expected to ease to 63.0 in May. Weak consumer confidence can translate into a decrease in consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. GBP/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.2495. The next support level is 1.2366 1.2573 and 1.2676 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD rebounds as German consumer confidence improvesGerman consumer confidence continued its upswing heading into May. The German GfK consumer sentiment index rose to -25.7, up from -29.3 in April and above the estimate of -27.5 points. Not exactly red-hot numbers, but the upswing has now extended over seven straight months, a clear trend that the German consumer is becoming more optimistic about economic conditions. As well, income expectations rose for a seventh straight time, the highest level since February 2022 and the main driver for the rise in consumer confidence. German consumers were able to breathe a sigh of relief as the feared energy crunch this past winter never materialized. Energy prices remained relatively moderate and the government pitched in with subsidies that lowered energy bills for households. Still, consumer demand has been weak, dampened by the double-barreled jab of high inflation and rising interest rates. The German economy is not in great shape, with GDP expected to stagnate in 2023, and as the largest economy in the eurozone that certainly does not bode well for the rest of the bloc. In the US, it's the opposite story, as consumer confidence slowed to a nine-month low in April. The Conference Board consumer confidence index slipped to 101.3, down from the March reading of 104.0, which was also the estimate. The survey found that the level of consumers planning to buy major household appliances in the next since months fell to a 13-year low, and that could spell big trouble for the economy, as consumer spending is a key driver of growth. Consumers have been resilient in the face of high inflation and rising rates, but that could be changing as the Fed's aggressive tightening percolates through the economy. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1023. Above, there is resistance at 1.1056 There is support at 1.0966, followed closely by at 1.0933
by OANDA
USD/JPY - Yen slides as Ueda says no plans for policy shiftBank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at his first news conference as head of the central bank today. It wasn't quite a State of the Union address, but Ueda's message was clear - the current monetary policy was appropriate and he had no plans to make any major shifts. There has been strong speculation that Ueda will make some significant moves, perhaps not right away but in the next few months. After years of battling deflation, Japan is facing inflation which has risen above the BoJ's 2% target. The US/Japan rate differential has been widening as the Fed continues to raise rates while the BoJ has capped yields on 10-year government bonds and interest rates remain negative. The changing of the guard at the BoJ seemed to some as an opportunity for BOJ policy makers to take some steps toward normalization, such as tweaking or even removing yield curve control. Ueda poured cold water on this sentiment, stating that, “Right now, the yield curve control is considered most appropriate for the economy while tending to market functionality”. Ueda's message of "stay tuned for more of the same" has lowered expectations of a policy shift at the April 28th meeting and the yen has responded with sharp losses. Japan's consumer confidence gave policy makers something to cheer about, rising to 33.9 in March, vs. 33.1 prior and 30.9 anticipated. This was the highest level since May 2022, although consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, below the 50-level which separates contraction from expansion. The week ended with a solid US employment report. The economy added 236,000 jobs last month, within expectations and softer than the upwardly revised 326,000 reading in February. The labour market is cooling but has been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hikes and the odds of a 25-bp rate hike have increased to 68% according to the CME Group, compared to around 50% prior to the employment report release. There is resistance at 133.74 and 135.31 132.18 and 131.67 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD - Pound slips as PMIs dip, BoE hikes againThe British pound is down considerably on Friday and the US dollar has posted gains against the major currencies. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 122.13, down 0.60%. UK releases are a mixed bag on Friday. Business activity and manufacturing weakened in March. The Services PMI eased to 52.8, down from 53.5 in February and shy of the estimate of 53.0 points. Manufacturing fell to 48.0, versus 49.3 in February and an estimate of 52.8 points. Manufacturing has declined for eight straight months, with readings below the 50.0 level which separates contraction from expansion. Business activity continues to show modest expansion and is the driver behind economic growth in the UK. Given the weak economic landscape, it's no surprise that consumer confidence remains mired in negative territory. Double-digit inflation and high interest rates have sapped consumer optimism. In March, GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -36, as expected and a bit higher than the previous reading of -38 points. With consumers may in a sour mood, a strong retail sales report for February was that much more surprising, with a gain of 1.2%. This beat the upwardly revised January gain of 0.9% and crushed the estimate of 0.2%. Core retail sales jumped 1.5%, versus 0.9% in January, which was upwardly revised, and beat the estimate of 0.1%. As expected the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. This marked an 11th straight hike, although the 25-bp move was the smallest increase since June. Is the BoE done with tightening? This week's disappointing acceleration in inflation has increased the odds of at least one more hike, although BoE Governor Bailey was non-committal when asked about future hikes. Like the ECB, the BoE didn't flinch from delivering an expected rate hike despite the banking crisis and I wouldn't be surprised if more hikes are in store unless inflation shows clear signs of easing. There is resistance at 1.2324, followed by 1.2445 GBP/USD has support at 1.2253 and 1.2132
by OANDA
GBP/USD jumps on N. Ireland hopesThe British pound has posted sharp gains on Monday, after falling below the symbolic 1.20 level on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2026, up 0.72%. In the UK, the economic calendar is unusually quiet this week, with no tier-1 releases. There will be a host of BoE members speaking, including BoE member Broadbent today and Governor Bailey and Chief Economist Pill later in the week. The BoE is widely expected to raise rates by 0.25% at the March 23 meeting, which would bring the cash rate to 4.25%. The UK economy appeared to be well on its way toward a recession, and the BoE signalled at the February meeting that it was considering easing up on the pace of rate hikes due to the slowing economy. The central bank may have to reconsider its policy after strong economic data was released last week. Services PMI climbed back into expansion territory in January, rising from 48.7 to 53.3. As well, GfK consumer confidence for February improved to -38, up from -43 a year prior. Although consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, this was the strongest release since April 2022. The improvement in economic activity has caused the markets to fully price in 0.25% hikes in March and May, with a 33% likelihood of the cash rate rising to 5% in August. The UK left the EU in January 2020, but the vexing problem of the Northern Ireland border has continued to create friction between London and Brussels. There are hopes that the sides will announce as early as today that progress has been made, with speculation that a deal is very close to being reached. An agreement would be a massive victory for UK Prime Minister Sunak, who has been dealing with a lackluster economy and public worker strikes. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2006. The next resistance line is 1.2082 1.1958 and 1.1864 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY ends nasty slideUSD/JPY is in positive territory on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 128.50, up 0.52%. The yen had an excellent week, climbing over 3% and trading at levels not seen since May 2022. The Bank of Japan holds a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in what could be one of the highlights of the week. BOJ meetings were traditionally sleepy affairs that usually maintained the Bank's policy settings. That has changed and the December meeting roiled the markets after the BoJ unexpectedly widened the band around 10-year JBs to 0.50%, up from 0.25%. The dramatic move has raised speculation that the BOJ could be planning additional policy changes at the upcoming meeting. The 0.25% cap on 10-year yields was breached on Friday and again today. The central bank has responded by buying over 2 trillion yen worth of JGBs but there is talk that the Bank could further widen the band to 0.75% or even abandon its yield curve control (YCC) policy completely. The yen has gained 14% against the US dollar since November, adding pressure on the BoJ to tighten its ultra-loose policy. If the BOJ does scrap the YCC, it would likely be viewed by the market as similar to a rate hike, which would push the yen higher. The BOJ will also release an updated inflation forecast, which is expected to be revised upwards. Market participants should be prepared for volatility from the yen after the BOJ announcements on Wednesday. In the US, consumer confidence gained strength in December. UoM Consumer Sentiment jumped to 64.6, beating the forecast of 60.5 and above the November reading of 59.7. Inflation expectations for 2023 decreased to 4.0%, down from 4.4%, although long-term expectations inched higher. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 128.40. Above, there is resistance at 129.40 127.07 and 125.92 are providing support
by OANDA
Swissie drifting ahead of inflation releaseThe Swiss franc is showing little movement for a second straight day. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9993, down 0.03%. Consumer confidence fell in the October survey to -47, down from -42 in the previous quarter. This marked a record low, as Swiss consumers have become even more pessimistic about the economic outlook. The survey found that consumers are concerned about inflation and are cautious about making large purchases. Inflation has been on the rise, but the 3.3% pace reported in September pales in comparison to the double digits we are seeing in the eurozone and the UK. The October inflation report will be released on Thursday, with a forecast of 3.2%. The Swiss economy is going through a rough spell, and this is reflected in the KOF Economic Barometer, a useful measure of economic activity.  The index decreased in October to 90.9, down from 92.3 in September. This marked the sixth successive month that the index has been below the long-term average of 100. The primary driver of the downturn was manufacturing, which has been hurt by sluggish global demand. The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to raise rates by 0.75% at today's meeting, but what happens next is uncertain. The Fed seems to be getting close to the end of the current tightening cycle, but hopes that it will ease up on rates as early as next month could be premature, as inflation remains stubbornly high. The Fed signalled a 4.6% terminal rate in September, but the markets are currently pricing in a terminal rate of 5.0% early next year. Investors are already looking ahead to the December meeting, and they will be looking for clues from Fed Chair Powell about what he has planned in the coming months. USD/CHF faces resistance at 1.0047 and 1.0137 There is support at 0.9944 and 0.9857
by OANDA
SPY and CCI Data Release I wrote a blog post Friday about the CCI data release trade potential on SPY today. May, June & July were all negative CCI prints which saw the market move lower, with August being a slight lift but still saw a negative move as the market was expecting higher. Todays results is slated as being another small lift to 104 but I don't think this will be enough to cause a large amount of selling. I'm also slightly anticipating the result to be worse than 104 given recent developments fundamentally.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by RuckSack
Pound can't find its footingGBP/USD is down sharply today and has fallen below the 1.11 level for the first time since 1985. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1125, down 1.16%. The British pound can't seem to find any love. GBP/USD is looking dreadful, down 2.1% this week and 3.8% in September. The currency hasn't sunk to such levels since 1985 and the strong US dollar could extend the pound's current downtrend. The markets are focused on today's mini-budget and UK releases. In the mini-budget, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced tax cuts and more spending. With no funding for the tax cuts and increased borrowing, gilt yields have jumped, but that has failed to boost the pound. UK releases reiterated that the economy is in trouble, for anyone who needed reminding. GfK Consumer Confidence, which has been in a deep freeze, fell to -49, down from -44 and missing the forecast of -42 points. Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.5, up from 47.3 and above the estimate of 47.5, but remained in contraction territory for a second straight month. Services PMI slowed to 49.2, down from 50.9 and shy of the estimate of 50.0. With both manufacturing and services in decline, the outlook for the UK economy remains grim. The Bank of England raised rates by 0.50% on Thursday. The pound did post some gains but couldn't hold on and closed the day almost unchanged. The move brings the cash rate to 2.25%, its highest since 2008. Still, it's fair to say that the 0.50% underwhelmed the markets, as there were some expectations for a more forceful hike of 0.75%. The BoE has been playing catch-up with inflation, which is running at 9.9% clip. The new Truss government has taken dramatic action to cap energy bills, which should help to curb soaring inflation. With the economy posting two consecutive quarters of negative growth and inflation still not under control, a recession appears unavoidable, which will likely add to the British pound's misery. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.1117. Below, there is support at 1.1038 There is resistance at 1.1269 and 1.1342
by OANDA
BOE delivers 50bp hike, sterling steadyAs expected, the Bank of England hiked interest rates by 0.50%, bringing the cash rate to 2.25%. There was an outside chance that the BoE would press the rate pedal to the floor and deliver a 0.75% increase, but in the end, members decided unanimously on a less aggressive hike. The central bank is grappling with 9.9% inflation and a falling British pound, which means that more large hikes are likely coming. The British pound has edged higher and is trading at 1.1287. With the rate decision out of the way, the markets will focus on UK releases, which are expected to be soft. Later today, GfK Consumer Confidence, which has been in a deep freeze, is projected to tick up to -42, up from -44. The week wraps up with Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Friday. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 47.5, up from 47.3, while Services PMI is projected to slow to 50.0, down from 50.9. The Federal Reserve delivered a third straight hike of 0.75% on Wednesday, raising the benchmark rate to 3.25%. This was largely expected, although there was a possibility that the hawkish Fed might raise rates by a full point. The Fed's decision was a "hawkish 0.75% hike", which gave the US dollar a significant boost, as GBP/USD plunged 1.01% on Wednesday and closed below the 1.13 line. The Fed sent a clear message that it plans to remain aggressive, as inflation has proven much more persistent than anticipated. August inflation fell from 8.5% to 8.3%, but this was higher than the forecast of 8.1% and only reinforced the Fed's hawkish stance. Fed Chair Powell left the door wide open for yet another 0.75% increase in November, and unless inflation shows a dramatic drop, December is likely to bring a hike of 0.50% or 0.75%. With the benchmark rate now above the neutral rate of 2.50%, additional hikes will likely lead to a recession, but this is a price the Fed is willing to pay in order to curb red-hot inflation. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1269. Next, there is resistance at 1.1384 There is support at 1.1144 and 1.1061
by OANDA
USD/JPY stabilizes after hitting 139The Japanese yen is in positive territory today after starting the week with sharp losses. USD/JPY is trading at 138.22, down 0.34%. Japan releases a host of events on Wednesday, including retail sales and consumer confidence. Retail sales for July is expected to come in at -0.5% MoM, following a 1.4% decline in June. Consumer confidence remains weak, with a July estimate of 31.0, following the June read of 30.2. Japanese consumers are in a sour mood and nervous about the economy, and it's no surprise that they are holding tight to the purse strings as inflation continues to rise. The yen remains under pressure and took it on the chin after Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Powell's brief speech went straight to the point, pledging to continue raising rates until inflation was brought under control. Powell pointedly said that one or two weak inflation reports would not cause the Fed to U-turn on its tightening, a veiled reference to the market euphoria which followed the July inflation report, which was lower than the June release. With the equity markets taking a tumble after Powell's speech, it appears that investors have finally gotten the Fed's hawkish message. Powell's speech removed any doubts about the Fed's plans to continue raising rates, but the size of the increases will depend not just on inflation, but also on other economic data. Overshadowed by Jackson Hole, US Personal Income and Spending data was weaker than expected. As well, the Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, fell to 6.3%, down from 6.8% and below the forecast of 7.4%. If Friday's non-farm payrolls report is weaker than expected, it would be a clear indication that the sharp increase in rates is having its desired effect and the economy is slowing. In such a scenario, Fed policy makers may be more inclined to raise rates at the September meeting by only 50 basis points, rather than 75bp. USD/JPY is testing support at 1.3822. The next support line is at 137.01 1.3891 and 1.4012 are resistance lines
by OANDA