Get started

Consumerpriceindex

Gold Watch: CPI Impact and Interest Rate DynamicsGreetings Traders, Our spotlight is on XAUUSD, where we are actively eyeing a potential buying opportunity around the 2015 zone. As gold trades in an uptrend, it currently finds itself in a correction phase, steadily approaching the trend at the critical 2015 support area. This numerical level carries historical significance, serving as a vital juncture where the correction may align with substantial market forces, creating an opportune entry point for traders. To comprehend the potential market dynamics, we must delve into the macroeconomic fundamentals. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released on October 25, 2023, revealed an actual inflation rate of 1.2%, surpassing the forecast of 1.1% and the previous 0.8%. This ongoing trend of rising inflation is crucial, as it has the potential to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The latest FOMC data, dated December 13, 2023, reflects a steady interest rate of 5.50%. Such a stance indicates a commitment to combat inflation, but the continuous dovish rhetoric and the decision to maintain the interest rate may suggest that the Fed is cautious about tightening too quickly. This dovish sentiment in the monetary policy can lead to further weakness in the USD. Considering the interest rate evolution, the Fed has been on a trajectory of cautious adjustments. For instance, in the FOMC meeting on September 20, 2023, the interest rate was held at 5.50%, maintaining the status quo. This steady approach is indicative of the Fed's commitment to managing inflation without overly hindering economic growth. The correlation between interest rates and the strength of the USD is pivotal in understanding gold's potential upsides. The negative correlation between gold and the USD implies that a weakening dollar could propel gold prices higher. As traders navigate the XAUUSD chart, the careful consideration of both CPI and interest rate data is imperative. The dovish monetary policy's potential impact on the USD's strength and the subsequent influence on gold prices should be a focal point in crafting effective trading strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
Inflation (CPI) - A Battle Already LostInflation ( CPI ) - A Battle Already Lost I've recently shared my outlook on CPI and where I think its headed in the months ahead but after further review, it seems that I've previously overlooked certain signals which should have altered my perspective in a way that it did not. Based on discovery of those signals, I have now updated my anticipatory CPI chart to highlight certain levels of interest. As we can see on the wavemap, the Consumer Price Index (a measure of inflation) has broken above its 40+ year bearish trend line. The breakout was very strong and should be considered as very significant. The format of the wave during this breakout has developed as what seems to likely be a zig-zag formation. Noticeably, the upside zig-zag wave has retraced 90% of the 40 year long bearish drawdown. Therefore, leaving little probability of it being a truly corrective wave. Aside from the macro bear trend-line, I have also highlighted the newly respected bullish trend-line. Finding resistance near 6.77, Fibonacci measurements suggest that the pending action will fall to retest the former price containing trend line and maybe even drop below it. Specifically, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that 0.99-1.01 should be the downside target range. Over the past 20 years, this level has also supplied nearly unbeatable support. If support is once again discovered near 1.00, the currently active wave could then be sent to retest the red bullish trend, at a level near 9-10. Ultimately, completion of the blue diagonal will signify that the CPI (and inflation) area headed for upside levels that the American economy has never witnessed. Personally, I believe that inflation is a byproduct of capitalism and there is no true containment possible. The next decade will prove to show if this is on point or simply farce.
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by DigitalSurfTrading
Elliott Wave Science Meets the Consumer Price IndexIt would be awesome if TradingView offered a candlestick chart for CPI but considering its only updated once per month, maybe the line graph/chart is the best option (not sure how that works). As for the data available to me, I've done a best effort markup using the science of Elliott Wave Theory. Considering the fluctuations seen on the M(onthly) chart, I believe its possible that CPI is sitting in the midst of a shallow Wave 4 correction. With this in mind, I find it possible that the number stretches into the low-mid 7.xx range between now and March. From there we may see a 2023 low within the 4.xx level. I will share my thoughts here as I know there is much interest in "what will the CPI numbers be?"... Being that this CPI data is directly based on the actions of humans and the habits that we act on, it should work pretty well with Elliott Wave Theory. I will keep this post fluid and apply analytical updates as monthly results are publicly announced. Remember these three important things: 1) trade the chart instead of the news and 2) stay safe /3) don't drown!
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by DigitalSurfTrading
Inflation & Interest Rate Series – The CPI Rally Content: • Why CPI could be at the beginning of a rally? • On 14 Dec 21, Fed: “Inflation is not transitory” changes everything • Strategy to counter inflation Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. If you are into shorter-term trading, the live data feed is definitely a must for traders. In part 2 of this series, we will do a deep dive on if CPI were to decline, to at what specific level? Before we can consider inflation is under control. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us. COMEX Micro Gold 0.1 = US$1 1.0 = US$10 1700 points = US$17,000 Eg. 100 points profit = US$1,000
Editors' picks
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by konhow
4
US Inflation is 8.4% For March. How Does This Affect Crypto?Many are bracing for "ugly" numbers for inflation in the United States in this week's Consumer Price Index report - as high as 8.4%. Inflation was, of course, the result of the US Treasury having printed record amounts of money in recent years - highly accelerated in the last few years due to COVID spending; further made worse by lockdown procedures that caused disruptions in the supply chain that inflated prices even further. White House officials are attempting to peg it to Putin's action against Ukraine but that's only a small part of the picture and may not make a difference as consumers and voters start to feel inflation pressures directly in their day to day lives. As poll numbers and approval ratings continue to turn against the incumbency a tones of desperation can be seen in the way the current administration talks about economic issues at hand. (Massive upsets in political races are already happening and is expected to continue into Nov 22' and beyond.) In the short-term, both crypto and stock markets (including Russia's MOEX) has taken a downturn after the news of high inflation numbers began to hit. Fears of inflation have spooked off part of the investor community - however, being that Bitcoin (and most crypto coins) have branded themselves as being a "hedge" against inflationary woes, the real trend is yet to come. Crypto investors are banking on there being a massive loss of confidence in the USD and have much of that money flow into the crypto ecosystem for outsized gains. Either way, a "moment of truth" seem to be well on its way in 2022 as these trends continue unabated. (As talked about in "Is Dogecoin Crypto's New Stablecoin?" and "The 'People's Coin' - Why Dogecoin is Forever", DOGE has shown relative resilience against today's downturn - the upside to its focus on utility over speculation.)
Editors' picks
Long
by RyanTanaka
90
Inflation Concerns Eases Amid Lower Than Expected Core CPI DataAmid rising concerns on inflation, today's release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February is among the most anticipated event of the month. The CPI acts as a gauge for inflation, where it measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. The CPI data vs Analysts' estimates is as follows, CPI: 0.4% vs Expected 0.4% CPI YoY: 1.7% vs Expected 1.7% Core CPI: 0.1% vs Expected 0.2% Core CPI YoY: 1.3% vs Expected 1.4% Note that Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy prices, while CPI is an all items index. Considering the above CPI data that is relatively tamed, we can expect the market's concern about a spike in inflation to be eased for the time being. We also saw the 10-year Treasury yields sliding lower, and an upward push in the stocks pre-market in reaction to a positive miss in the Core CPI data. As such, I expect the broader stock market to stay relatively green today, at least until the $58 billion auction in 10-year notes that will happen later today, which may provide further indication on where Treasury yields may be headed going forward. Thus, market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market as it will help provide you with insights on what you can expect for the day's movement. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
USD Consumer Prices - what can be expectedToday, there is a number of medium impact news, among which Consumer Prices Index and Fed Chair Powell speaking are expected to have a high impact. Consumer Prices is a number, so I circled back to its previous releases to examine the possible impact. See the charts below. Greater than to forecast is supposed to be good for the currency. 13.1 . 10.12 . 12.11 . 13.10 . 11.9 . 12.8 . Apparently, CPI change was never enough to change the overall direction of the market. It can, however, confirm the bounce of resistance or a breakout. I will see if any position is worth taking. Later, in the evening, there is Powell speaking. I will not hold beyond that. I marked levels and potential levels on the chart. Good luck!
by OrcChieftain
Evidence for inflation: Changes in DXY/CPI Inflation is erosion of the dollars buying power: ( when consumer prices are changing (rising) faster than the value of the dollar.) One way to quantify this is the ratio between the Dollar (DXY) and CPI (the Consumer Price Index). A decrease in this ratio is consistent with the concept of inflation As of August 9th 2020 two analysis below (A & B) show** the dollars buying power is dropping (the slope of the DXY/CPI ratio is decreasing) (A) Quantitative Analysis: Top Bolinger Band (green): Length is 634 weeks, starting from the 2008 crash low. Bottom Bolinger Band (Orange): Length is 50 weeks (~ one year) The two bands show that every time the DXY/CPI ratio crosses the BBands mid-line (634MA) it coincides with a statistically significant change in the 50 week trend (abs(BB50) >2SD, p<.05,). The current values of BB634 and BB50 suggest that we have entered a period of increasing inflation. (B) Inferring causality: A smaller DXY/CPI ratio can be the result of a) a drop in DXY value (with no change in CPI) b) a price increase (CPI) with no change if DXY value. There's room for both a and b since, first, DXY charts for this period show an irrefutable drop in DXY value. Secondly (and informally) I recently got back from shopping and, bruh....shiz got expensive!! /sarc Notes: ** the analysis are consistent with a rejection of the null hypothesis that there is no change.
Editors' picks
TVC:DXY
by gb50k
11