Conteo
AUD will break down its support but bounce back thenThe AUDUSD is poised to break below it's support.
The last polls shows 5 times more analyst expecting a rate cut of 25bps for the next April 7th meeting than the previous weeks.
78% chances for rate cut priced by the Mkts (Rtrs).
Even when previously have more preference for the gray wave count, the break below the wave ii (gray) discard this
idea and places more odds for an expanded triangle as wave iv).
As the down movement since iv) (black count) seems a single impulse this could be an small push lower the support to be bounced back short after, Should wait to see how this following up movement develops to better asses what will happen then.
I'll wait for more confirmation.2 months ago told you I was expecting a decline in the NZDUSD, then a little push higher appeared and did a little bit more diffuse the scenario.
The main problem is because is hard to see a clear 5 patter although is not impossible to count one.
If you consider a very disproportionate expansive triangle for wave iv) then is possible the end of this correction be in place.
Even when we expect to see a relative sharp decline (a lot longer than is right now, watch this chart in daily ) because we expect the end of a double-zigzag that ends also a diagonal, the actual juncture makes me wait for more confirmation, for example I rater like to see the formation of a whole impulse and it consequent retracement before to commit with the bears here.
Gold could face new downward pressureAfter forming a first down impulsive movement, the price has formed an expanded flat.
You can discard other kind of counts like a zigzag in the first part of the decline because after it's bullish rebound the price descended in a zigzag fashion pattern and there after the price get new highs from the last lows.
After initial pullback that could be deep, this could send the price to a minimum at least of 1228 but if the price ends to be impulsive (you'll can tell because the base channel will then be broken to the downside) it could get much lower.