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AUDUSD idea update See chart notes for why we're still in a Bearish shape and why I'm not looking for an entry anymore. Yes, retests are nice areas to get in. No, I don't care for wide stops nor do I have the patience to sit through vague ideas finding clarity. We could easily come back down to the pink zone and then bounce back up. D1 is hugely important for healthy analysis. And if you've gotten into a strong move, managing the trade for a longer term move on the D1 is a great strategy to minimize your trigger happiness. I need one more step of analysis THEN look for trades on my timeframe. So please don't take blind entries -- bias does not equal "get into a position".
by structuredtrader
Why an early fail can actually HELP a breakoutThis is a great example for traders of all timeframes to study. I don't really have time for people basing trades on wide zones - that's fine for analysis, but for a TRADE, you've got to see the fight at a specific level. When you draw these correctly, you can get a really great picture of evolving sentiment and balance of power shifts. Most traders treat breakouts way too lazily. You don't just enter at a new High/Low. You NEED buildup. Any naked attack from distance is likely to fail. But what if it only pauses, instead of crashing? Do you redraw the level? Do you avoid the trade completely? What works for me: Talk out the developing scenario. A fail failed? Ooh, interesting. Maybe there's more power on the original side than expected. Once the breakout's happened, how is the other side thinking? I was biased long, getting everything I wanted to see....but what would the Bears want to see? Probably a close back under the grey/yellow boxes, right? But wait, now that we created another temporary level during the failed probe, there's another level price needs to break through before even attempting the yellow level and then grey boxes! --> this makes for a likely bounce point, and creates several chances for late entries. Best of all, it means a breakout entry at the original level will be protected by that bounce and your trade stays green.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by structuredtrader
CL breakdown continues powerfully, big Daily levels in sight nowUpdate to a previous post I made about the CL level breakdown. Bias remains short until proven otherwise. Flat, no clear entries for me until tomorrow morning when we look at premarket price action and range. Yesterday's trade posted to twitter. 11.25R despite mismanaging the hell out of it. It's imperative you learn to take wholesale entries, understand context, and know when to pull the trigger and when to HAPPILY stand aside.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by structuredtrader
D1 bias, H1 setup, short term executionI'll post my Ninjatrader charts for trade entries. This is the kind of setup I want to wait for vs fighting the grind on NQ today. I'm a momentum trader, and momentum comes from traps and/or tipping points. I don't want price to ever come back to my entry and I don't believe in wide stops. Before taking entries, ask yourself about the market state. Is it grinding? If so, you're going to get killed with constant retests of your entries, general noise etc. What's the point getting into a position you think is going to be retested (I'm speaking as a daytrader, not a swing trader...). If you're getting stuck overtrading, ask yourself this: Do I really expect this trade to move to my target? If there's a preceding trap AND contraction AND empty space ahead of you...that's where the money's made.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by structuredtrader
EURUSD D1 breakout and subsequent H1 opportunitiesSee chart for relevant explanation. These two levels offer clear markers we can use for context relative to the D1 wedge berak. The eventual break of A looks great in hindsight, but wasn't a great breakout setup. B provided a much stronger story, and exactly the sort of price action we're looking for ahead of a breakout. I'm borrowing directly from Bob Volman --> trading around these levels is highly dependent on the presence of buildup and potential for double pressure. The break at B is one of the few grade A BO setups. We expect the kind of momentum that followed because the Bull-Bear fight that went on for the prior couple of days suddenly has a total paradigm shift. The same level, at which we're experiencing directional contraction (wedging against the level), is where longs are going to be forced to sell and aggressive shorts will be looking to sell to enter (hence, double pressure).
by structuredtrader
Levels introduction, ideal scenarios in EUR/USDSee chart for relevant explanation. These two levels offer clear markers we can use for context relative to the D1 wedge break. The eventual break of A looks great in hindsight, but wasn't a great breakout setup. B provided a much stronger story, and exactly the sort of price action we're looking for ahead of a break. I'm borrowing directly from Bob Volman, but trading around these levels is highly dependent on the presence of buildup and double pressure. The break at B is one of the few cases of a grade A BO setup. We expect the kind of momentum that follows because the Bull-Bear fight that's been going on for a couple of days suddenly has a total paradigm shift. The same level, at which we're experiencing directional contraction, is where longs are going to be forced to sell, and aggressive shorts will be looking to sell en masse.
by mcjackson
DXY: A Tearway Move - in Context DXY Dollar Index The dollar has been been on a tearaway move ever since breaking its longer term downtrend at the 90.42 level. By 'tearaway' in DXY terms that means 2%. Huge ! Over 11 calendar days or so. The same as Bitcoin moves in 45 minutes. This is as exciting as DXY gets. And people seriously trade this for a living. Some have to but in a world of choice you can do the math - and choose. It takes all sorts to make a world ! Since breaking above and then retesting the top of the range structure at 90.93 DXY has surged up the right side of the chart as fast as fell down the same space on the left side of the chart. It's now testing the next line of resistance at the 91.92 level after an intra-day high 3 points higher. It should consolidate a little here before breaking higher still to test the 92.55-92.64 range. Over the more medium term DXY should hit 94.03. Until it does the dollar is likely to remain a buy dips market.
TVC:DXYLong
by sumastardon
XAUUSD - Context!The Chart is mostly self explanatory. Here are the very important things to watch: Swings and Pivots are CLEAR identifiable. But one has to keep both in context. When it rains, it can rain drop by drop, or it can pour like hell. You can drive a care, or you can race with your car. ...see what I mean? It's all about context. To eliminate guesswork in the charts, a nice trick is to go higher in timeframes, or load much less data. If I would load only 5 years of data, instead of 10, it would be a much clearer picture what the real trend is. Please don't take this as the only truth in the world, I don't mean it like that. I just share my years of learning, knowledge and facts I have gained over time. So, it's just my framework, how I learned from the greatest Chartist I know in the world. Within many years of work, I was able to grasp what he hammered me in my head...it took a long time for me, I'm slow, but happy now ;-) Peace!
FX:XAUUSD
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
GBPUSD - ContextToo many information on charts. What's a trader to do? Put context around it to filter and see the important stuff. Price got rejected at the upper U-MLH (!) Here we are again. Another rejection will shoot price down to the centerline again (...maybe). If price can manage to crawl up to the orange line - I call this the 1-Line-Trade - I looking for signals to short it. But I'm never in a hurry and I also don't cry if I miss a trade...there are millions to come... Happy new week out there!
by Tr8dingN3rd