WISH ContextLogic accumulation areaWISH had an IPO price in 2020 of $24 and now the price dropped to 7.55usd.
ContextLogic Inc. (WISH) financial results or why it went down:
The good:
Revenue per Active Buyer was $22, an increase of 21% year-over-year
ProductBoost revenue increased 11% year-over-year to $50 million
Logistics revenue in the second quarter was $228 million, or a 126% year-over-year increase.
The bad:
Marketplace revenue decreased 32% year-over-year to $378 million in Q2
Buyers during the quarter declined 44% year-over-year to 17 million
Monthly active users declined 22% year-over-year to 90 million
Active buyers decreased 26% year-over-year to 52 million
Cost of revenue for the second quarter of 2021 was $272 million, a 31% year-over-year increase
Q2 gross profit was $384 million, down 22 percent year-over-year.
On 8/13/2021 Analyst Stephen Ju from Credit Suisse Group Lower Price Target for WISH from $24.00 to $19.00
Contextlogic
WISH: Danger or opportunity? How to deal with it?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how WISH is doing today! It is dropping sharply thanks to earnings. However, is this an opportunity or time to get out of it?
First, it is never a good idea to buy anything just because it is dropping. Some drops make sense, some don’t. Either way, in this analysis, we’ll focus on TA, not FA.
I like to buy reversals, but in this case, we must see a bullish structure first. I would never sell WISH right now, as the Risk/Reward ratio is extremely poor, and if I were shorting it, I would probably book profits now.
WISH can reverse and fly again, yes, but for now, there’s nothing telling me it will. The key point in the short-term is the pivot point at $ 7.85. If defeated, then we might see some reversal, or at least, a congestion – either way, the bearish sentiment will get weaker.
In the daily chart, it seems that it must close a candlestick above the $ 7.52, to make today’s drop as a false breakout from the previous support. Personally, I think there’s a good chance that WISH will do something like PINS, except that PINS earnings were quite good.
I see much more interesting opportunities around, and I will just stay away from WISH. If we see a clear movement, then we might trade it, but we have nothing that it is good enough to convince me. Again, there are much better stocks out there.
Let’s watch the key points mentioned in this analysis closely, as they will give us the first signs of a possible good movement in the next few days.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analysis.
Have a good weekend.
Make a $WISHTechnical:
The has recently been on a downward trajectory. A strong descending triangle pattern is forming. If the stock finds the strength to push through to the upside the stock could reach its previous stock price of the high 20s or low 30s. Good risk-reward to the downside as lower support is in the mid 7 range.
Fundamental:
E-commerce is the future. Powerhouses like Amazon have paved the way for the growth of the industry but there are new players in town. WISH has set up infrastructure to directly source products from China and other low-cost manufacturers. This makes them significantly cheaper than the alternative, a direct competitive advantage. Furthermore, the e-commerce industry is booming. COVID-19 has only accelerated the rapid pace of technological change as next-day delivery and contactless delivery become the standard.
All Star Managamnet Team:
Piotr Szulczewski - Founder and CEO
Mr. Szulczewski is our founder and has served as our Chief Executive Officer since July 2010. Prior to founding the Company, Mr. Szulczewski served in various positions at Google, Inc., a technology company, including as a technical lead and senior software engineer.
Jacqueline Reses - Executive Chair
Ms. Reses was appointed Executive Chair in May 2021 and has been a member of our Board since December 2020. Previously, she served as Executive Chair of Square Financial Services LLC and Capital Lead at Square, Inc., a publicly traded financial services company that provides payments, point of sale, and cash flow management services to small businesses and consumers, from October 2015 until October 2020.
Farhang Kassaei - Chief Technology Officer
Mr. Kassaei has served as our Chief Technology Officer since July 2021. Prior to joining the Company, he served as Senior Director of Software Engineering at Google where he oversaw the development and roll-out of commerce capabilities across its core product suite, including Search and YouTube. Mr. Kassaei previously spent more than 10 years at eBay Inc. where he held multiple leadership positions, including Chief Architect for the core marketplace.
Tarun Jain - Chief Product Officer
Mr. Jain has served as our Chief Product Officer since August 2021. He served as Director of Product Management at Google from 2017 to 2021. At Google, he incubated and led the development of Discovery Ads, bringing inspirational and engaging commercial ad experiences to YouTube, Gmail and Discover.
Devang Shah - General Counsel and Secretary
Mr. Shah has served as our General Counsel since February 2018. From August 2010 until April 2017, Mr. Shah served in various positions at Zynga Inc., a game development company, most recently as General Counsel, Secretary and Senior Vice President.
Retails patience waning, almost time to flyTechnical analysis:
Clearly a larger harmonic structure at play here. There's no telling yet what exactly is forming, but I outlined a Bearish Bat pattern to 1) give me hopium that selling will end around $8.15 and 2) with COVID, it's only fitting the chart would form a bat.
We've been in this descending channel for the entirety of July so far. I expect this to breakout and turn sideways until early August, where I then expect us to start making higher lows. I expect price to rise to $12 in August.
Fundamental analysis:
With the delta variant spreading, we could potentially see another lockdown (rare), and that would expedite this trade as ecommerce will once again lead the way.
WISH might hire a new CFO with commendable credentials and the market might react well to it.
WISH might announce a very good Q2 report on August 11th and once again prove its value.
How I am trading it:
I am already deep into WISH as-is, but I am looking to add more here and around $8.15 and lower if I can get it that cheap. I do not plan on selling this company as long as it's fundamentals stay true. Long term target: $28
This is not financial advice.
Who's WISHing for a Retest?WISH simple fib retracement using recent lows revealed some levels on the chart. The 786 fib has been a relatively frequent area of traffic for the stock. Meanwhile, 618 fib line was previously a level of support the continued to get tested but didn't break until recently. With WISH testing 618 as short-term resistance last week and 786 as potential support on Friday, it will be interesting to see if these levels remain the channel for WISH if/when it continues this consolidation trend.
Other than the usual social media excitement, also take a peek at the filings which should show the latest Form 4 coming out last week (7/15), which revealed that Brett Just Chief Accounting Officer, sold more shares. This adds to the growing number of Form 4s that have shown selling from insiders.
Will it ever stop dropping? 😱Despite the huge RSI divergence, there’s nothing good going on in WISH now. We are dropping a lot, and nothing here says we’ll stop.
I like to think that the time to buy is when it is dropping, but we must do it carefully, always waiting for our chance, looking at the patterns that could change the trend.
We have no patterns now, but if we do a green candle on Monday, breaking through the 9.68 I’ll consider it a good sign for sure. For now, I prefer to watch it carefully, waiting for my chance.
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
$WISH Bulls Bulls Anticipating Strong Reversal $WISH Bulls looking for a reversal after the stock tested higher lows first established in early June and following a move from one side of the Bollinger Bands to the other. Confirmation of the "double bottom" could set up a big move to the upside based on an ELLIOTT WAVE "C" expression with a price target above $15.23.
Fundamentals (which have been improving during the recent run given numerous key bullish news developments) are about to meet "oversold" oscillators and strong Elliot Wave counts.
WISH ContextLogic Buy RumorsI know this rumor isn`t new, but makes us think a little bit about WISH`s valuation.
One person close to WISH`s Insiders said Amazon offered $10 billion all-cash to buy the company, and Wish's CEO didn`t agree.
Looking at today`s Market Cap of only 6.438Bil, i would say that from a valuation point of view you can buy it cheaper than Bezos now.
My short term Price target considering also the Avg. Volume of 59Mil per day is the 15usd resistance.
I look forward to read your opinions about it.
Time is running our for WISH! ⏳Ok, WISH lost the 10.77 and it hit the support at 10.40 today. This is he best spot if WISH is about to reverse again. Despite the breakout from the distribution, WISH didn’t drop too much like some expected, and it is still above the 10.
Now the RSI is very oversold, and it must do something good tomorrow.
We are not that oversold I the 4h, but this could be a double bottom if we see a reversal pattern around. By losing the 10.40, the 9.68 will be the next stop. Let’s wait for the next signal. I’ll keep you guys updated.
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
Will it fly or not? You must be aware of these points! 👁👁It seems the 10.77 is a new support for WISH, while the 11.22 is the breakpoint to change the trend.
The fight is intense, as the Bollinger Bands are very tight. To the side it explodes, we’ll see a big move afterwards.
For now, WISH is just dropping without any signs of life. Since the risk-reward is very good at this level, I think it is a good moment to buy, but you must use a strategy for this, otherwise, things can go very wrong to you. My followers are trading WISH with me, but I don’t think WISH is the most interesting stock to trade around. We have stocks that are looking way better, in my view.
Just be careful, and trade wisely! If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
Just about to do something great! 👀Just like PLTR, we have an advanced breakout on WISH too, but the price didn’t confirm any buy yet. We are still accumulating, and the Bollinger Bands are very tight. It’ll explode soon, and it looks like it’ll be up.
We are bouncing after we hit the 10.37, and we even went outside the BBs for one moment, indicating some fatigue. Again, we have no buy yet, but I think next week we’ll have our chance!
I’ll keep you guys updated.
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
Did exactly what we expected! 👀 Now what? 🤓Ok, WISH did exactly as we said yesterday. It is exhausted, and we have many interesting signs around. The breakpoint is the 11.22, we must watch it closely tomorrow!
The RSI has a divergence + advanced breakout, just when the BBs are getting tight again!
We hit the support as we expected we would, at 10.37, and ow we have the start of a reversal. This is fantastic, and I already have a clear strategy for it! The only problem is the RSI that could be more oversold, but that’s ok.
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
When to trade WISH? 🤑Yes, WISH is getting cheaper for us, which is good! I don’t see the 12.10 as a breakpoint anymore, because we traded above it yesterday, and we lost the support at 11.57 today.
This tells us that WISH is pretty weak, despite the divergences seen on the RSI, and the fact it looks oversold. That’s not good, but when will we buy WISH again?
The answer: If it does a bullish candlestick in the 4h chart. Preferably if it does one after it hit the support levels at 10.37 or 9.68. The RSI could be a little bit more oversold in the 4h chart too. All of this would be great for WISH.
We are also surfing the lower band of the BB, another sign that WISH might be oversold soon. Let’s wait patiently for more signs. I’m sure it’ll give a buy soon, and I’ll be here to update you guys!
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
You must pay attention to these points next week! 👀Ok, we have no buy signs triggered here, and WISH is just falling. But when will it stop falling?
The good news is that it is doing a double bottom in the 30min, and the RSI is a little oversold. We do have a weak bullish divergence too. The 12.10 is the breakpoint for WISH, again. By breaking it, it’ll start to climb again.
The 4h chart is interesting. We are already near the lower band, and we did a spinning bottom today. The RSI suggests we could drop to the 10.37, but WISH is pretty tired in the 30min.
Now is the time to WISH break the 12.10 again! Let’s all keep our eyes on this point next week! I'll constantly update you guys!
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
What's next on WISH? 👍Ok, WISH didn’t trigger the buy sign we talked about yesterday (the supposed Spinning Bottom), and we dropped more.
Now we are holding around the 12.10 again, and we have signs of bearish tiredness. The RSI looks oversold, and I see the 12.53 as a nice trigger. This could save WISH for now, but keep in mind that it could drop more.
The 4h chart is not oversold yet, and if we lose the 11.96, we have the 10.37 as the next stop. Like yesterday, we have a possible reversal sign, but it wasn’t triggered. Always wait for confirmation!
I’ll update everyday about it.
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
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Melissa.
If this $WISH level holds, we're likely to see a huge reversalIf you are in $WISH today, here is the playbook many ELLIOTT WAVE traders are using. Some variations had buy zones all the way down to $11.80. The low of the day thus far is $11.95. Now watching to see if this retracement level holds, it could signal a coming bullish wave to $17.50 area.
Buying the dip! WISH to $22The pullback continues, but the mission remains the same; the fundamentals remain the same. This is nothing more than an opportunity to load up more shares. Reminder: 7.7B market cap. Last quarter revenue: 772 million... This is a stock you hold when you can get it at these prices.
I am expecting the local bottom to form at $11.30ish as there is a nice volume shelf there. I have buys set at 12.35 and 11.40, which should give me an average buy in price of around $11.80, considering my other buys.
Technical analysis:
We failed to pass the $15 supply zone. We're simply heading down to $11.30, grabbing liquidity and will reattempt to breach $15. I am eyeing the 38.2 retrace fib for a bounce. I think price will respect those trend lines, even though it's rudimentary, I find success with this sort of method and I'm sticking with it.
Disclaimer: this is not financial advice.
I told you the $ 13 was our next stop. 😉And some think TA doesn’t work! WISH did exactly what we talked about in my last analysis: Corrected to the 13, because it was our next support, and it is also at the 20ma in the 4h chart.
Now we do have a good reaction, as we expected, but we must wait for the confirmation.
If WISH breaks the 13.67 I see this as another buy sign! We have a spinning bottom just above a bottom area. I told you we would see something interesting! Now, let’s just wait for the trigger. I'll update you guys every day about it!
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
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Melissa.
NASDAQ: WISH - Moving averages on a course to POP price higherBulls are looking for prices to bounce off the rising 10 day EMA while Bears are hoping to push prices lower. There are several technical and fundamental indicators which point to higher prices ahead, but first, this issue must be resolved during trading on Wednesday June 30, 2021.
Predictive Price Movement Scenario for NASDAQ:WISH w/o SqueezeUsing a BARS PATTERN approach we have came up with a price movement scenario based on past behaviors and double checked against trendlines and support resistance to come up with this PREDICTION (blue bars) of price movement for $WISH.
This predictive model does not account for any potential SHORT SQUEEZE or GAMMA SQUEEZE which other experts in FINTWIT are predicting for the coming days ahead. This model shows what is likely to occur WITHOUT the pressure of a squeeze.
We will have another chance to buy it soon! 🤑🤑🤑Ok, WISH hit the 13.80 as we thought it would, and it is below this level right now. That’s fine, now I see the 13 as the next support, and look at the RSI – it is starting to get oversold again!
Any reversal pattern around will be a buy sign for us.
And this will be perfect, because the 13 is also the 20ma in the 4h chart. The 30min and 4h charts were too overbought recently, and this pullback simply normalizes the situation.
For now, we have no other buy sign, but I’ll warn you if we see one! So, keep in touch!
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
I told you the $15 was the target! 🎯Yes, we nailed another target! Now what?
WISH is correcting a little bit, and it can hit the 13.80 again. I still see it bullish, and if it drops there again, it is a buy in my opinion. A late buy, but a buy! 😉
If WISH breaks the 15 again, then we’ll see a continuation of the rally to the 20s, as we already talked about.
WISH is doing great. I’ll keep you guys updated.
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
How to proceed on WISH? 🤓This is just a consolidation. A normal movement that occurs when something did an amazing movement. It is how the market tells us that the stock is resting.
There’s nothing to worry about here, and since we are above the 20ma, we are fine, and the momentum is bullish.
The 20ma is a support for us here, and it seems WISH will hit it next, before it hits our first target at 15! The entry point was around 12.10, so, I believe it is impossible for us to lose money right now.
We are still in a bull trend in the 4h chart, but the problem is the RSI, which is overbought. This makes a pullback more likely, but this doesn’t change our thesis!
WISH is bullish, and I’m 100% sure that we’ll see pullbacks along the way, so, let’s just be prepared and be patient! I’ll keep you guys updated, as usual!
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
