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BTC/USD - Analysis of recent events and a Double TopQuick BTC/USD analysis of the last few Months: Looking at the Price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Convergence/Divergence: From Tuesday 13th Sept 22 until Saturday 5th Nov 2022 we had Convergence with the Price and RSI which indicated a reversal was most likely on its way. Price = HH - LH (Higher High - Lower High) RSI = HH - HH (Higher High - Higher High) Next from Wednesday 9th Nov 2022 to Monday 21st Nov 2022 we had Convergence with the Price and the RSI which then lead to a reversal breakout. Price = LL - LL (Lower Low - Lower Low) RSI = LL - HL (Lower Low - Higher Low) Next from Sunday 29th Jan until Tuesday 21st Feb 2023 we had Divergence with the Price and the RSI leading to the bearish reversal drop that we are still in today. I suppose you could start this Divergence sooner if you wanted, but i have started it on the 21st Feb 2023. Price = HH - HH (Higher High - Higher High) RSI = HH - LH (Higher High - Lower High) Here is a closer look at the 1 day chart. Here is a closer look at the RSI Indicator. For those who are new and do not know, please note that Divergence/Convergence with the Price and RSI is indicted by the Straight Yellow Lines on the Chart and RSI Indicator. A few other bits. BTC has also created a Double Top Pattern as indicated by the 2 circles on the chart with arrows. The 1st Top was at Monday 15th Aug 2022 and 2nd Top was at Tuesday 16th Feb 2023. Note that BTC tried to get above this support level 3x and failed all attempts at closing above this resistance line. BTC is still in an Ascending Channel Pattern, while it did break out of its Upper Resistance Trend-line, it did not CLOSE ABOVE it, so this Upper Resistance Trend-line is still valid. Using the Lower Trend-line of the Ascending Channel and the Double Top Resistance line, we can also say that BTC may also be in an Ascending Triangle Pattern. At the moment of typing this, BTC is still below its 50MA (Yellow Line) and has found some support from its 200MA (Red Line). Looking at just the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) and Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) of the Ichimoku Cloud, we can see that BTC is in the Equilibrium Zone Inside the Cloud. Note that a successful daily candle CLOSE BELOW the 200MA will also bring BTC under its Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) support level into the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud. Please note that i am not using the traditional 9,26,52,26 settings for this cloud. Looking at the Bollinger Bands, we can see that we have had massive expansion of the Upper and Lower Bands for the negative side, BTC is still way below its Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA and note that the Middle Band is still Pointing Downwards. Note that BTC is still walking on the underside of its Lower Band. My thoughts: While Silvergate Bank’s liquidation may have contributed to the drop we are still in, looking at this chart, we can clearly see that the Price and the RSI were already giving the warning signs back in February especially with the Double Top and Price/RSI Divergence. We will now have to see if the 200MA holds as Support, if it doesn’t then next is the Lower Trend-line of the Ascending Channel Pattern. During these recession, it is iInteresting times ahead for BTC and the whole Crypto market. In any case, i hope this post has been informative and has helped those who are new to charting and using Price/Oscillator Convergence & Divergence to help predict possible price movement.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by entertheroach
An introduction to the MACD indicatorHere is my quick and dirty introduction/explanation of what the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator………… indicates. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend following momentum indicator that follows the intimate relationship between a 12-Period EMA and a 26-Period EMA on a price chart in whatever timeframe you are in. The MACD indicator is made up of 6 parts, the MACD Line, the Signal Line, the Histogram, the 0.00 Base Line, the Positive Zone and the Negative Zone. As default, the MACD Line is calculated by subtracting the value of a 26-Period EMA from the value of a 12-Period EMA on your chart to give you your MACD Line value. The MACD indicator will give a MACD Line value in whatever timeframe you are in. The Signal Line is a 9-Period EMA of the MACD Line and is used with the MACD Line to generate/trigger Buy and Sell Signals. If the MACD Line crosses ABOVE the Signal Line, that is considered a Buy Signal. If the MACD Line crosses BELOW the Signal Line, that is considered a Sell Signal. Note that Buy and Sell Signals can be generated in both the Positive and Negative Zones The Histogram is a graphical representation of the distance between the MACD Line and the Signal Line (9-Period EMA). Green Histograms will appear above the 0.00 Base Line when the MACD Line crosses ABOVE the Signal Line. The Green Histograms will Increase in size the further the MACD Line moves upwards & away from its Signal Line. The Green Histogram will also lighten in colour if the MACD Line fails to move higher to create a higher Green Histogram Bar. Red Histograms will appear below the 0.00 Base Line when the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line. The Red Histograms will increase in size the further the MACD Line moves downwards & away from its Signal Line. The Red Histogram will also lighten in colour if the MACD Line fails to move lower to create a lower Red Histogram Bar. The Positive Zone is the area ABOVE the 0.00 Base Line. If the MACD Line crosses above the 0.00 Base Line, this means that a 12-Period EMA is ABOVE a 26-Period EMA on your price chart in whatever timeframe you are in. So to reiterate, the MACD Line will be ABOVE the 0.00 Base Line when a 12-Period EMA is ABOVE a 26-Period EMA on your price chart. The Negative Zone is the area BELOW the 0.00 Base Line. If the MACD Line crosses below the 0.00 Base Line, this means that a 12-Period EMA is BELOW a 26-Period EMA on your price chart in whatever timeframe you are in. So to reiterate, the MACD Line will be BELOW the 0.00 Base Line when a 12-Period EMA is BELOW a 26-Period EMA on your price chart. Note that the MACD indicator has no upper limit in the Positive Zone and no lower limit in the Negative Zone. The MACD indicator can also be used to show Divergence between the Price and the MACD Line. In a Bullish scenario, if the Price is making Lower Lows and the MACD Line is making Higher Lows then this is potentially Bullish. For a Bearish scenario, if the Price is making Higher Highs and the MACD Line is making Lower Highs then this is potentially Bearish. The MACD indicator can also be used to show Hidden Divergence between the Price and the Histogram. In a Bullish scenario, if the Price is making Higher Lows but the Histogram is making Lower Lows then this is potentially Bullish. For a Bearish scenario, if the Price is making Lower Highs but the Histogram is making Higher Highs then this is potentially Bearish. The MACD can sometimes produce false positive as can be seen here where we have Bullish Divergence with the Price Converging with the MACD Line but no real breakout happened. Note that the MACD Line and Signal Line will be in line with the current Candle Wick in whatever timeframe you are in. The MACD indicator is a lagging indicator but it also has the power to be predictive especially with potential upcoming Buy and Sell signals, divergence and when used with other indicators like Volume, the Ichimoku Cloud, Bollinger Bands, MAs or EMAs, RSI, ADX DI to name but a few as these can help complement the MACD signals to help get a much clearer picture as to what is going on and what may happen on your chart in whatever timeframe you are in, because there is a lot of BS, FUD, FOMO and utter crap out there so a little clarity is always helpful ;-) For me the MACD is a very useful indicator with my trading, so I hope you have found this quick and dirty MACD educational post helpful. Happy trading. Notes: MACD Line = 26-Period EMA Value - 12-Period EMA Value = MACD Line Value Signal Line = 9-Period EMA of the MACD Line. Used with the MACD Line to trigger Buy and Sell Signals Histogram = Distance between the MACD Line and the Signal Line 0.00 Base Line = Crossover point to the Positive Zone and/or Negative Zone Positive Zone = a 12-Period EMA is ABOVE a 26-Period EMA on your price chart Negative Zone = a 12-Period EMA is BELOW a 26-Period EMA on your price chart EMA = Exponential Moving Average.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by entertheroach
2
OHI PRICE FORECAST USING PAST CONVERGENCE PATTERNS & K-VARIANCE REFERENCE KEY: Yellow Horizontal Lines = Key Support Intervals (K). Orange slopes = Key Resistance Intervals based on convergence model. White Regression trend represents a LOG/Linear slope equal to (((0.33X-1)T/V)^2) Where, 0.33 = Series Conv {((Alternating Series Test), If for all n, an is positive, non-increasing (i.e. 0 < an+1 <= an), and approaching zero, then the alternating series equals 1 }, T= Time-frame V = %Change X = Standard Div / Variance Forecast Findings (95%): This chart shows a mathematical and technical forecast for Omaha Healthcare Investors for the next 5 trading days. Based on previous activity a sell-off of more than 5% yields a rapid rebound equal to previous support levels. Given that OHI saw a 6.11% correction, compounded regression show a standard procession of variance at $1.86 or 5.18% where in approximately 23 hours from the time of this writing the closing price will be equal to $38.33 on Wednesday Feb 13th. After the markets close. the buying activity will be followed by a convergence of sell-side activity reducing the daily price change from 1.86 to 1.13, the final percentage gain going into trading hours on Thursday will be %3.08 and the price at market open for OHI on Thursday Feb 14th will be $37.57. Adjust your trades according to this forcast and use the model for future predictions and you will maximize your profits from trading OHI. These variance metrics are extremely consistent and the convergence (K = 1+v^2) factorization almost never deviates outside of the provided Intervals. FWYB, DanOmun.
NYSE:OHILong
by danOmun
S&P UPDATEUPDATE ON PREVIOUS POST. THERE ARE MANY FACTORS GETTING INVOLVED. TECHNICALLY THE INDEX IS STUCK ON ITS 9-10 EMA HOWEVER, IF IT FALLS BELOW THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR A WHILE. IF IT STAYS ABOVE WITH VOLUME IT WILL RALLY. NUMBERS TOMORROW WILL BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION ALONG WITH TRIPLE WITCHING AND THE FOMC MEETINGS. ANYTHING MAY HAPPEN WE WILL BE ABLE TO CONFIRM IN THE MORNING AFTER THE FIRST 30 MINS TO 60 MINS , ALSO LETS SEE IF AFTER EUROPE CLOSES IF IT CAN MAINTAIN THE MORNINGS CURRENT DOWNTRENDS.
FX:SPX500
by bhorbs81