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COP

Time for ConocoPhillips to end the skid?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on August 16, 2021 with a closing price of 54.82. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 55.17 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.337% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.213% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.049% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 21 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:COPLong
by StockSignaler
Colombian Peso under Pressure The Colombian peso has been making headlines lately. There are calls of Colombia to dollarize amidst some expert calls that the COP might be overvalued by as much as 30%. This chart is an update to my last year's chart that correctly forecasted the current price range in the usdcop pair. According to this chart, continued dollar strength and a weak cop could see prices rise by 30% $4500 once we break the key $3500 level. -- El peso colombiano ha estado en los titulares últimamente. Hay llamadas de Colombia a dolarizar en medio de algunas llamadas de expertos de que la COP podría estar sobrevaluada hasta en un 30%. Este gráfico es una actualización de mi gráfico del año pasado que pronosticó correctamente el rango de precios actual en el par usdcop. De acuerdo con este gráfico, la fortaleza del dólar y un policía débil del cop podrían ver los precios aumentar en un 30% a $4500 una vez que rompamos el nivel clave de $ 3500.
by You23
USDCOP Macro Flows Towards 3650Risk premium is low once more in EM and we have long term targets spotted at 3650 here. => The rise since April is now clearly impulsive and the last and final levels in play now for this 5th wave is 3650. Pullbacks should only be bought, as mentioned in the previous idea (see attached) and now that we have our pullback..you know what to do. To put simply, a Q3 hike is underpriced and markets will start trading increased odds of a move from the Fed later this year. It's time to start building positions on the buy-side in dollar for the next few months. Good luck, I know not many are trading EM so feel free to PM or open the discussion below. Thanks
Long
by ridethepig
BRAZILS STRETCHED RISK PREMIUM MAKES FOR "REAL" LONG OPPORTUNITYBRAZILS RISK PREMUM IS STRETCHED See "Summary Statistics" in doc below www.bcb.gov.br BRL's risk premium (currently highest across EM peers) looks stretched, given a continued pick- up in growth and reducing near-term political risk. COP's recent rally was likely driven mainly by a reversal of heavy short positioning, without a material shift in the country's economic and political outlook. Recent data releases showed that 2017 exhibited the slowest annual growth since the 2009 crisis (1.8%Y) and growth should remain sluggish in 2018, at 2.3%Y. Uncertainty about the upcoming elections poses an additional challenge for the investment outlook, given that implementing structural reforms could be key to helping to correct the fiscal deficit. The risk to this trade is that Colombia's economic data surprise to the upside, leading to further appreciation in the currency.
Long
by itzbert