Cop: The Trending Stock of the HourI believe that successful trading strategies rely heavily upon identifying consolidation zones. Consolidation zones provide us the right direction of the market. Consolidation happens when a market move sharply upside or downside. Later, a trader can use these consolidation zones to identify patterns, whether it be a continuation or reversal.
It requires attention and care. Rather than turning out to be a factory of producing signals, it is better to sit down and look for a setup. Setups are important because we are planning a trade and execute them on time. If you fail to plan a setup, then you are planning to fail.
Another advantage of trade setup is that we know where to get out and the right time to go in. Know the market. Study the price movements and make your trades.
My charts use price movements, patterns, structures and indicators such as moving averages and oscillators. Trading intelligence is combining multiple knowledge to produce a favorable trade setup and plans.
ConocoPhillips (COP) stock price distance from twenty day simple moving average surged at 0.85% while its distance from fifty day simple moving average raised 0.88% along with 3.94% above distance from two hundred simple moving averages. A moving average can help cut down the amount of “noise” on a price chart. Look at the direction of the moving average to get a basic idea of which way the price is moving. Angled up and price is moving up (or was recently) overall, angled down and price is moving down overall, moving sideways and the price is likely in a range.
COP
light crude dudeI think oil is set to blast off. The indications are clear in the prices but I also think fundamentally - not based on the current ratio supply and demand of oil necessarily but in the geopolitical uncertainty that lies ahead. If the USA proceeds with "defending" the South China Sea as promised by the leadership, we will see oil prices react.
BEARISH RATING - XLE (SPDR SELECT SECTOR - ENERGY)It's been about seven sessions since we first issued our real time rating on XLE as bearish, and we still believe there will be opportunity to the downside.
Volatility should continue as headline risk prompts uncertainty in the markets. Even if Saudi Arabia did happen to freeze or reduce production, it could not be enough in the long-term to offset production by Iran, Iraq, Russia and US shale producers. Furthermore, as we stated well over a year ago, the continuously slowdown in global economic growth will put a damper on crude prices.
Here is our note from 9.14.16:
Fundamentally, we do not see a meaningful resolution between Saudi Arabia and Russia curtailing their massive crude production, in part do to the unwillingness of Iran to freeze production until it reaches 4 m/bbl per day in production. With Russia - and most of OPEC - continuing course, any production cuts by domestic producers will be offset, and the supply glut will continue.
What is troubling, too, is the IEA reduced its demand forecasts by 100,000 barrels due to weaker demand from Asia. The report suggested that the supply-demand imbalance will last until the first half of 2017. If subscribers remember, we foretasted, in August 2015, that demand would continue to slow due to the global slowdown and that Chinese demand would wane. The inability for the consensus to forecast the sharp decline in global economic growth has left crude prices quite volatile.
We expect ongoing EIA inventory data to favor crude bears as the industry heads into the seasonally weak winter months.
Technically, a break below $68 will press ascending support. We like the technical indicator make-up that suggests that the next leg of selling is beginning as long as it is supported by key fundamental factors. As bulls continue to unwind longs, the z-score will turn bearish which we prefer on the short-side until -1.5 to -2. Bearish targets are set up on key support.
Rating Specifics :
Signal Trigger: $67.98
Signal Threshold: $70.02
Signal Opportunity: $60
R/R Ratio: 3.91
Duration: 1 to 3 months
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Only Gap At This Point Is RequiredAs Said in title only gap at this point can make this market move to dogs.
Rules to short:
Short when market breaches the red horizontal line
Reasons To Short:
Standing on the volume any gap can make this market to go bump
Divergence will be eliminated after gap so there will be nothing left to hold this market
Market will follow trend if gap down
News looking like we can have a gap so waiting for that as well
holded at this area and moving in a upward channel which is very strong pattern
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Get In Your Calls and Prepare PutsCOP continues to stay in a trend channel. Although it takes a while to bounce between the support and resistance levels, it is consistent. Expect COP to hit the resistance prior to earnings date. It will then decline after earnings and who knows how low it will go. Also anticipate the ups and downs of oil to keep this cyclical. Place your calls and prepare puts!
SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the CourseTraders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback.
Here , we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11 low has seen volume under the 20-day average. On balance volume is not supporting this move.
Next, when deciphering a mere pullback following a steep decline or an inflection point, think what is the "smart money" doing?
Simple. They've been selling to the dumb money for the last five weeks . Corporate buybacks continue to be the only demand in US equities.
Fundamentally, the index is highly expensive versus historical valuations. At a 21.79 P/E, the SPX is over 5 points over its mean. It's over 11 points higher that the "sweet spot." Shiller P/E, which tracks 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings, is at 24.98 (also, historically expensive outside a recession).
Furthermore, earnings are, indeed, rolling over (along with the business cycle) while real earnings growth is cratering at -14.5 percent. Last time that happen, the US saw a recession in the early-90s, the recession following the tech bubble and the 2008 financial crisis.
See that here !
Aside from there lack of conviction with permabulls being scooped up in buyback fever, the index is about 160 points of its most recent low. Yesterday, price action closed at daily resistance at 1,978 and near the 50% Fib. level from this years epic start.
If it can close above these two levels, the next level that is key is 2,020. If bulls overtake this level a potential retest of 2,071 is probable.
However, this is how I believe it will go as the dollar continues to strengthen and the Fed continues to be out of place:
A bear market scenario like those that followed the tech bubble and financial crisis would put the SPX near 1,078.
This year, we've also seen SocGen's Albert Edwards forecast a potential 75% decline for the broader index.
17 months ago, I published a chart showing a whopping 71% potential decline in SPY from then current levels .
Granted, this was merely based on historical references and calculation, but interesting nontheless.
Will you get a chair when the music stops?
Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26
Check my posts out at:
bullion.directory
www.investing.com
www.teachingcurrencytrading.com
oilpro.com
Bull Divergence COPBullish Divergence seen on MACD, RSI, and Stock RSI, indicate that this recent fall of COP stock is soon nearing. There is not clear divergence on the weekly chart, only the daily. So I am not expecting this rally to be a complete trend reversal, however, there is ample room to go up a bit to correct for this recent sell off.