C-Wave for Copper-Miner?We could be in a 1-2 / 1-2 / 1-2 and in the C wave. Let's see if the current 2 holds and we can see an upward impulse after a 5-divider downwards.
Copper
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?COPPER is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.3037
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4.3876
Why we like it
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 4.2133
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
S&P500 vs VIX vs Copper/Gold Ratio. The rally continues.On this chart you can see the Volatility Index against the S&P500 and the Copper/Gold ratio.
We bring this chart to you in order to show you why we think the long term trend on the stock market will be bullish for 2025.
As you can see, VIX had an odd spike in August, when the stock market corrected to some degree.
Since the 2008 crisis, we have had similar spikes on VIX only another two times March 2020 (COVID) and September 2011.
Alls those times, the Copper/Gold ratio bottomed after a long term decline and started to rise.
This rise started also a rally on the S&P500.
Since the market was unphazed in August, we have strong reason to believe that it will extend its gains in 2025 too.
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Copper Breakout: Bullish Trend After 0.6Fib RetracementI’ve initiated a long position in Copper after a successful retracement to the 0.6 Fibonacci level, which triggered my entry. The bullish trend looks solid, and I am targeting the 0.7 Fibonacci level for my take-profit (TP), aligning perfectly with my point of interest around the 4.800 level. As of now, Copper is facing resistance in the 4.300–4.400 price zone, but a breakout here will prompt me to adjust the stop-loss (SL) and take partial profits. Until the breakout occurs, the trade criteria remain as shown in the chart.
Technical Analysis:
• Entry: Near the 0.6 Fibonacci retracement level.
• Target (TP): 4.800 (aligned with the 0.7 Fibonacci level).
• Stop-Loss (SL): To be adjusted after a clean breakout above 4.400.
• Market Structure: The price has respected the Fibonacci retracement levels and is set for a potential breakout to the upside. The bullish trend remains intact, supported by clean retracement patterns.
Fundamental Outlook:
Copper prices have been fluctuating due to external factors, including China’s economic measures, which have helped support the market. However, half of those gains have retraced as market participants begin to question the scale of the stimulus. Despite this, the long-term view for Copper remains bullish, especially with solid demand linked to the energy transition and rising input costs.
Additionally, factors like U.S. rate cuts and China’s fiscal policies will play a key role in driving future demand. The current short-term outlook remains dependent on stimulus from China, as well as the timing and impact of U.S. rate cuts. Should demand recover, Copper could potentially rally towards the 4.800 level as targeted.
Risk Management:
• The SL will remain flexible, adjusted accordingly based on the price action and breakout strength.
• Partial profits will be taken in the 4.400 range, with the remainder held for the final target at 4.800.
• The position is managed carefully to avoid exposure to market volatility in the lower ranges.
Always remember to Pay Yourself by taking partial profits when the trade moves in your favor!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Copper - The impact of China's support packagesCopper is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. As long as copper is in the range, selling at the ceiling and buying at the bottom of the range will be recommended.
If copper falls due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend starts and the ceiling of the range is broken, it is possible to sell copper in the specified supply zone.
Chinese banks have recently reduced interest rates on existing mortgage loans, which amount to a total of 25.2 trillion yuan. This move aims to support the real estate market and bolster China’s economy.
Meanwhile, the CEO of Maersk stated that they do not expect to navigate the Red Sea efficiently until 2025. Additionally, they see no signs of a decline in global demand or transaction volumes in the coming months.
Maersk, one of the largest shipping companies in the world, was founded in Denmark in 1904 and is known for its extensive operations in maritime shipping, logistical services, transport, and financial services.
On Tuesday, the World Bank reported that global commodity prices are projected to drop to their lowest in five years by 2025. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook (CMO), the bank noted that despite this decline, overall commodity prices will remain 30% higher than five years before the COVID-19 pandemic. Although forecasts vary by commodity, improved supply conditions are cited as a key factor in the overall price reduction.
A Reuters survey predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. These figures mark a change compared to the July survey, which projected 3.1% growth for both years.
According to a recent analytical note from Bank of America, U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) for this month are expected to increase by around 100,000 jobs, a significant decrease from the 254,000 jobs added in September. This decline is primarily attributed to disruptions caused by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing workers’ strike, which likely reduced job opportunities and working hours.
Tracking Economy with this Ratio – Copper vs Gold RatioThe Fed is using the Copper / Gold ratio in tracking economy and its growth.
Currently, the copper / gold ratio is still trending downward, which indicates that the economy may not be recovering that soon.
Copper Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: HG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $12.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CHILEAN COPPER MINER - ANTOFAGASTA - SETS UP FOR BUY
This massive Copper-Miner, Antofagasta presented in a scan and I could see the huge demand side from a couple of years ago and upwards sloping chart from left to right. Then all of a sudden 'bam' and the healthy demand side turns to supply and selling.
But in the past month or 2, buying has reemerged inside of a triangle-pattern-daily-chart and it I am getting buy signals on MACD, the Squeeze indicator is also talking back at me, I will watch this over the coming sessions to make an entry.
Watch this space.
Potential bullish rise?COPPER has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.3566
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 4.2689
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 4.4561
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
COPPER High probability buy signal on the 1D MA50.Copper (HG1!) is about to hit its 1D MA50 for the first time in a month (since September 16), following a 1D Golden Cross. Coming off a Higher High rejection within a short-term Bullish Megaphone, if the 1D MA50 holds, it is technically the perfect buy entry.
This Bullish Megaphone is essentially the Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up. The symmetrical Bullish Megaphone of September 27 2022 - January 18 2023 peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, our Target is 4.900.
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Heading into pullback resistance?COPPER is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.3566
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4.4606
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 4.2603
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Copper 10-10Pair : XCUUSD ( Copper / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Resistance Level
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
#COPPER 4HThe copper market on the 4-hour chart is showing signs of a bearish trend, with a notable support level breakdown. This indicates weakening buying pressure, leading to a potential sell opportunity.
Key Insights:
1. Support Breakdown: The price has recently breached a critical support level, suggesting a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
2. Pattern Formation: Prior to the breakdown, a bearish pattern (such as a descending triangle or head and shoulders) was forming, hinting at a reversal or continuation of a downtrend.
3.Volume Confirmation: Increased selling volume at the time of the breakdown reinforces the potential for further downside movement.
4.Target Zones:
- Immediate downside targets lie at previous lows or Fibonacci retracement levels.
- If the selling momentum continues, a deeper decline could be anticipated, potentially testing major support zones.
5.Stop-Loss Considerations: A protective stop-loss above the broken support or the latest swing high is advised to manage risk in case of a reversal.
Trading Strategy:
Entry: Enter sell positions after confirmation of the support breakdown on the 4H chart.
Take Profit: Set take-profit levels at key support levels below the breakdown point.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above the previous support (now turned resistance) or the latest swing high.
This technical analysis suggests that if the current conditions hold, selling #COPPER on the 4-hour timeframe could be a strong move for short-term traders.
Can SILVER BREAKOUT above 32.50?Silver (along with every other beaten down commodity) exploded on the news of China's stimulus! Unfortunately for silver bugs "somebody" was lying in wait with a mighty big hammer when it poked its head above 32.50.
In a vacuum the fundamentals (supply/demand) are incredibly bullish. However in the macro context of China's housing and economic woes there is a bear case to be made for base and industrial metals. If Copper starts rolling over I expect Silver to follow. Raw cash injections might keep Chinese stocks afloat but I do not believe it alter the reality of the real economy and its effect on commodities.
In addition to the issues with China, the US is at serious risk of a recession. 50 basis point cut has never been bullish. If you take the time to look at the last initial 50 basis point cuts it might curb your enthusiasm. I know... this time "its different"
TECHNICALS:
Silver may retrace to the $30 breakout level.... Great re-entry... if it holds... ( ;
If Silver is able to hold above 32.50 the rally remains intact.
COPPER: Low risk buy opportunity.Copper is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.137, MACD = 0.100, ADX = 52.223) and that is the ideal buy opportunity as the price is pulling back to the 1D MA50 and the bottom of the Channel Up. We are aiming for a little over the 0.786 Fib (TP = 5.000), like the Jan 18th 2023 High.
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COPPER Bottomed Out: Long Opportunity!Going Long on Copper:
I’m taking a long position in CAPITALCOM:COPPER at this level. If it retraces, I plan to add to my position down to around 4.15.
The weekly downtrend has ended, and this week’s price action has erased the previous bearish expansion bar. There are signs of bullishness on smaller timeframes, and the daily chart shows an active uptrend for the coming week.
It looks like the low may be in on this one. COMEX:HG1!
COPPERPair : Copper CU
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
RSI - Divergence
O-B
Copper is Next to Move, Why?Copper is next to move because the Chinese consumers may be coming back.
In last December's tutorial, we discussed how Gold was breaking above $2K and set to move higher, which it did. In April, we anticipated that Silver would soon catch up, and it did as well. Now, I believe Copper will be next, not just based on technical but also on fundamentals.
Micro Copper Futures
Ticker: MHG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Sentiment: Option Traders Take Bearish Bets on Silver and CopperNegative option flows were found for two metals at the same time: silver and copper.
Portfolios that want prices to fall appeared at the same time as the market is growing, which is interesting.
The positions are quite large, but they cannot be called "Insider positions", so we will be careful with forecasts.
Of course, we need chart confirmation that agrees with the sentiment in options. Option traders like to flip trends too, so we need more signals.
If you're long right now, though, that's something to consider. Like I said, option trades in Silver and Copper are significant.
Copper 1D Long – Targeting 0.5-0.6 Fibonacci LevelsCopper is showing signs of a potential bullish move on the daily chart. The setup suggests a possible retracement before a continuation to higher levels. We’re targeting the 0.5 to 0.6 Fibonacci retracement levels, with price targets set between 4.5000 and 4.7000.
Technical Analysis:
• Fibonacci Levels: The 0.5 to 0.6 Fibonacci retracement levels align with previous resistance areas, making them key targets for this move.
• Trendline Breakout: The price has broken through a descending trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum to the upside.
• Retest Expectation: We might see a retest of the breakout level before the price resumes its upward movement.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: Enter a long position on a potential retest or near the current level, anticipating further upward movement.
• Target: The primary targets are the 4.5000 to 4.7000 range, which aligns with the 0.5-0.6 Fibonacci levels.
• Stop-Loss: Remember, this is a swing trade, so it could take a few days to potentially extend to weeks. It’s important to understand this trading style and adjust your position size accordingly to accommodate the longer timeframe and potential market fluctuations.
This Copper trade leverages a potential shift in trend with clear targets and risk management strategies. Keep an eye on the retest for a better entry, and stay focused on the price action as it develops.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Copper CUPair : Copper CU
Description :
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
Copper Gets Double Boost from China Stimulus & Fed Jumbo CutThe Fed’s outsized pivot last week and guidance for multiple cuts ahead helped copper’s recovery, as it increases chances of a soft landing for the worlds largest economy. Furthermore, lower rates are expected to bring mortgages down and help the real estate market.
Copper got a second boost this week, from a massive monetary stimulus package from China - the world’s top consumer. Authorities have been enhancing their efforts to prop the sputtering economy recently and the new measures constitute a step up. Crucially, these include lower mortgage rates on existing home loans and a reduction in rates for second homes, in further support for the ailing property sector.
These developments lead copper towards a third straight profitable week and the best month since April, with bulls now getting the opportunity to tackle 4.700. Along with the return of AI euphoria that drives the rebound of the chip industry (where copper is a critical component), there are prospects for further gains.
On the other hand, the Fed’s frontloading creates risk for inflation persistence and less cuts in the future, while China’s actions are in the right direction, but bolder measures are needed on the fiscal front. Furthermore, the move looks stretched technically so a pullback towards the EMA200 (black line) would not be unreasonable. However, the downside appears well protected and sustained weakness below the EMA200 looks hard.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Vale S.A. is riding the wave of optimism as the Brazilian stockVale S.A. is riding the wave of optimism as the Brazilian stock market rebounds, buoyed by China's economic stimulus and rising iron ore prices.
Vale S.A. has emerged as a frontrunner in the recent upswing of the Brazilian stock market, with shares soaring over 4.5% thanks to an increase in iron ore prices driven by renewed demand from China.
As the world's largest iron ore exporter, Vale stands to benefit significantly from China's stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing its economy. This positive momentum underscores Vale's vital role in Brazil's economy, reflecting broader trends in the commodities sector and showcasing investor confidence in the company's future performance amid ongoing global challenges.
Rewards
Price-To-Earnings ratio (5.3x) is below the BR market (9.9x)
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 29%
Risk Analysis
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.8% per year for the next 3 years
Dividend of 11.58% is not well covered by free cash flows
Can Rio Tinto Save the Day? The Looming Mining Supply CrisisAs the world races towards a greener future, a critical challenge looms on the horizon: a looming supply shortage for essential energy-transition metals, particularly copper. This shortage, if left unchecked, could jeopardize our ambitious plans for a sustainable future.
Rio Tinto, a global mining behemoth, has sounded the alarm, urging the industry to expand mining operations to meet the escalating demand. The company's chairman, Dominic Barton, has dismissed the notion that mergers and acquisitions alone can solve this crisis. He insists that organic growth, involving the discovery and development of new mines, is the only viable path forward.
The urgency of this situation cannot be overstated. The demand for copper, a vital component in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure, is set to skyrocket in the coming decades. Failure to secure adequate supplies of this critical metal could hinder our progress towards a sustainable and electrified world.
Rio Tinto's leadership in the mining industry is undeniable. Their proactive stance on addressing the supply crisis is commendable, and their commitment to organic growth and exploration for critical minerals demonstrates their dedication to the cause. However, even with the efforts of industry giants like Rio Tinto, the road ahead is fraught with challenges.
The Chinese economy, a major player in the global mining landscape, is currently facing its own difficulties. While Barton remains optimistic about China's ability to overcome these challenges, their current economic state could further exacerbate the supply crisis.
As the world grapples with the pressing issue of climate change, the mining industry must rise to the occasion. The time for complacency is over. It is imperative that we invest in exploration, expand mining operations, and secure the critical resources needed to power a sustainable future. The stakes are high, and the world is watching. Can Rio Tinto and the mining industry save the day?
