Is Copper Melting?The red metal is widely regarded as a barometer of global economic health.
Despite thin investments in production in recent years, copper prices have been bullish since June this year. Anticipation of China re-opening from Covid linked restrictions and less than expected inflation prints in the US have fueled a near 15% rally in copper prices over the last two weeks.
Notwithstanding the recent bullishness in prices, this case study provides a brief macroeconomic backdrop making a case for short term headwinds even as the long-term bullishness for copper remains solid.
Real Estate in China
Against a backdrop of wider ESG recognition, de-carbonisation & EV adoption, and couple that with low investments in copper production, all this points to copper’s bullish outlook over the long term.
However, massive macro headwinds, chiefly from the troubled real estate sector in China and rising interest rates are likely to slam brakes on copper price rise in the short term. China consumes more than half of global copper production. Within China, real estate represents a lion’s share of copper usage.
Rising default rates in real estate loans, deleveraging among construction firms, and declining/slowing growth in real estate lead to anemic demand. Soft demand for copper from China is likely to send prices downwards in the near term.
Strong Dollar despite recent price retracements hurts commodity consumers
A majority of the global equity markets have plunged massively with change in the interest rate regime. Projects that used to make sense when the cost of financing was zero, now do not make commercial sense. Companies are facing shrinking profits and the outlook appears bleak for many firms across various industries with few exceptions. A resilient and strong dollar doesn’t help much either.
Commodities that are traded in USD fuels inflation in non-dollar-based economies. Firms that are already fighting slow growth are saddled with the burden of rising costs as US exports its inflation via a strong dollar. Even though USD may weaken somewhat in the coming weeks, the year-to-date gains in the USD makes it challenging for non-US firms which will likely drag copper prices down.
Geopolitical Conflicts
The lingering geo-political conflicts and the uncertainty that comes with it have put firms on their back foot. Businesses and consumers alike are posturing defensively instead of betting on growth.
Deleveraging
Markets in general are in a deleveraging mode. This is being observed across equities, bonds, housing, company balance sheets, credit market, and crypto among others. The US Fed is determined to tame inflation lower through higher rates for longer. This is likely to create an onset of recession starting with rising unemployment rate. As that sets in, we could see a decline in consumer demand which will subsequently affect commodity prices negatively.
Technical Signals
Copper prices rallied last week heading into a resistance band has not been breached since June. After a positive CPI print, prices moved above this band on positive sentiment. The RSI points to overbought as it hit 69.19 while BBW hit a 3-month high indicating a potential reversal in the uptrend. The 200-day moving average is currently at 3.9905 which could offer a resistance level in the current larger downtrend. Although the March contract saw elevated volume on the move last week, the current contract volume was consistent with normal trading activity.
Current implied volatility for March expiry ATM Copper options is 32.71% or 2.06% daily, it has been at this level for the past month. Realized 20-day volatility has been closer to 41.16% or 2.59% and stands elevated over the past 2 weeks from the low 20’s. This means that at current implied volatility levels daily, a 1-standard deviation move at the 200-day moving average could take us to 4.07.
$3.4465 is the Point of Control for the Visible Range Volume Profile since April and could offer a potential level for taking profit. Another potential level could be 3.2945 from where price has bounced over the past 3 months.
Trade Setup
Copper Futures on CME provide exposure to 25,000 pounds of copper. Copper futures expiring in March 2023 have a maintenance margin of $5,750.
Establishing a short position with an entry price of at $3.873 with a potential target at $3.4465 would result in $10,663 in profits or a return on capital of 185.4%. However, if the stop loss at $4.07 is triggered, it would lead to a loss of $4,925 or -85.65% of capital employed. Tier 2 target at 3.2945 would lead to a profit of $14,463 or 251.5% in return on capital.
Micro Copper Futures on CME, at 1/10th the size of standard copper futures, provide a more flexible, cost-effective way to express market views. Similarly, E-Mini Copper Futures on CME offer exposure to 1/2 of a standard futures contract.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk.
These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
Copper
Copper to see a breakdown?XCUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 4.209 (stop at 4.249)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A break of the recent low at 4.221 should result in a further move lower.
Reverse trend line resistance can be seen at 4.290.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the high.
Our profit targets will be 4.109 and 4.089
Resistance: 4.270 / 4.305 / 4.330
Support: 4.250 / 4.220 / 4.180
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Copper futures could drop like a rock to $1.94The retracement in wave (X) (orange) could be over as it reached 61.8% of wave (W).
It unfolds in a triple three WXYXZ (yellow).
Y and Z are greater than W, which is healthy.
The target is the previous valley of Jan 2016 at $1.94.
At this target point the wave (Y) will reach the distance of 1.272 of wave (W), which is Fibonacci ratio.
Copper's momentum has changed.XCUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 4.099 (stop at 4.139)
Our bespoke support of 4.130 has been clearly broken.
Offers ample risk/reward to sell at the market.
We look for losses to be extended today.
Short term bias has turned negative.
Our profit targets will be 3.999 and 3.979
Resistance: 4.130 / 4.160 / 4.185
Support: 4.075 / 4.030 / 3.990
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Copper to see a higher correction.XCUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 4.128 (stop at 4.168)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
A break of the recent low at 4.130 should result in a further move lower.
50 2hour EMA is at 4.129.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
Our profit targets will be 4.028 and 4.018
Resistance: 4.200 / 4.223 / 4.250
Support: 4.165 / 4.150 / 4.130
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
HG1! Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 3.9335, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 3.7085, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 4.4555, where the 88% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Copper (HG) Rallies in Nesting Impulse According to Elliott WaveCopper (HG) rally from 9.28.2022 low is unfolding as a nesting impulse Elliott Wave structure. A nest is a series of 1-2-((i))-((ii)) which is an extended version of an impulsive structure. Up from 9.28.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 3.96 and wave 2 pullback ended at 3.5410. Wave 3 is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 3.929. The 1-hour chart below shows pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 3.708. The metal has extended higher again in wave ((iii)).
Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 3.865, and pullback in wave ii ended at 3.7985. The metal extends higher again in wave iii towards 3.988, pullback in wave iv ended at 3.932, and final leg wave v ended at 4.044 which completed wave (i). Pullback in wave (ii) then ended at 3.987. The metal extends higher again in wave (iii) towards 4.186 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 4.129. Expect wave (v) higher to complete soon with a few more high and that should complete wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Afterwards, the metal should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 1.4.2023 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 3.708 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
COpper and other futuresCommodity traders are pumping everything, gold, oil, copper, cattle, hogs, everything I checked.
If they continue to do so, it will force the Fed to go .5% regardless of CPI. A Fed member speaks every day next week, at least one of them will probably say something.
Not as bullish as I was earlier today. Besides, CPI of 6.5% is still above 2% target.
They can't undo QE because they're under water on all of their MBS, so they're slowly letting them expire. I think interest rates will have to remain high until their balance sheet goes down. Take a look at this chart (and now you know why I keep calling Powell stupid):
www.federalreserve.gov
Copper rally to be capped.XCUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4.185 (stop at 4.230)
With signals for sentiment at overbought extremes, the rally could not be extended.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Our profit targets will be 4.075 and 4.055
Resistance: 4.160 / 4.187 / 4.250
Support: 4.150 / 4.080 / 4.030
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Tracking the China reopening basket: HSI, Copper, KRW and AUDSince early November, when China initially hinted at lifting statewide Covid restrictions, a basket tracking assets linked to the Chinese reopening story has surged by 22%.
In the last 11 weeks, the China reopening basket, which is equally weighted with copper , Korean won , Australian dollar , and the Hang Seng index , has outperformed a global stock market (MSCI ACWI index) benchmark considerably.
The China reopening portfolio has gained 22.3% versus a 6.8% gain of the MSCI All-Country World index since November 1st. Because the total volatility of the China reopening basket has been lower (19.2% compared to 21.8%), the Sharpe ratio has been even more positively skewed (9.61 vs 1.89).
The Hang Seng index, which has climbed by 45% since November, has been the portfolio's best contributor with a weighted return of 11%, followed by copper with a weighted return of 5.3%.
XCUUSD ( COPPER / USD ) Commodities Analysis 10/01/2023Fundamental Analysis:
china is the biggest copper consumer and as of now we can see the most of its manufacturing plants and factories are getting shut due to Protests and ongoing havoc in the country.
DXY is very bullish which can go up to 130 and ultimately will result in the more price fall in the commodity sections.
World economic Crisis and Supply chain Disturbance which will lead to the Manufacturing Halt.
Technical Analysis:
Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD,
Hidden Bearish Divergence Formation in the process which is a very strong Bearish Trend continuation sign.
Nest Resistance and Potential Pivot Point 9500$
lower Support at 8450%
Bearish Targets: 5800$, 5250$, 4300$
#DR copper broken solid resistance and back above 200dmaHard to be bearish on global markets when probably the biggest proxy for growth is showing really strong technical action. Dr Copper has broken out its triangle which has kept price action constrained and under the 200dma for the better part of 2 months. It has now also broken above the 200day moving average with higher targets in play
HG1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 3.9335, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 3.7085, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 4.4555, where the 88% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
HG1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 3.9280, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 3.7085, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 4.2575, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Silver is gearing for a move up, but is it ready?Silver had a huge move up in 2020, but that was all it managed to do back then. Since its first significant peak in August 2020, it went sideways and started declining. Silver was in a big bear market since 2011, then entered an accumulation range, and then had its capitulation move in March 2020. Then with all the fiscal stimulus, it skyrocketed, but most capital flowed into crypto and stocks, not precious metals. As inflation remains high and interest rates could be near their peak, and investment in metal miners has gone down a lot over the last decade, this precious metal that seems to have lost its shine might be ready to shine again.
It looks like silver had a very healthy pullback into the top band of its accumulation range. Now resistance seems to have turned into support, and the market could head toward 24$ in the next few months. The truth is that I don't believe that the market has fully bottomed yet, although it could very well have, and that eventually, it will have on final leg down towards 16$ and bottom there. The main reason I think that has to do with how the market bottom is that there are two double bottoms around 17-18, and there is a little 'gap' at 16. Essentially I would like to see the market test 16$ because I want to see it thoroughly test that untested breakout, the Yearly S3 Pivot, and the Volume Profile Point of Control.
Another reason that I think the market will go down there again is that I expect a major deflationary episode to take place in 2023, one that has the potential to create a liquidity squeeze (risk asset collapse) that would affect precious metals too. In my opinion, the current move up in Gold, Copper, Silver, etc., mostly has to do with low production/inventories of metals, while demand seems to have bottomed in the short term. Eventually, the market will get crushed again, but I think the bounce has legs for now.
Therefore it would make sense to look for longs in the 16-20$ zone and take profits in the 21.7-24$ area. Shorting 24$ might be a good idea, but I would prefer to watch how the price action develops before I step in.