Are we entering a commodity super-cycle?Definition of a commodity super-cycle:
Commodity super cycles are decade-long periods in which commodities trade above their long-term price trend.
Technical Analysis:
Using a weekly candlestick to see the bigger picture.
DBC is breaking out of a 10 year long downtrend.
On Balance Volume is supportive, as it is also breaking higher, reaching levels from a decade before.
We are breaking and testing $18.5, which is a very long-term resistance; now potentially turning into support.
This is a long-term setup.
R1, R2 and R3 are potential targets to take some profits.
Fundamental factors:
Weakening dollar
Supportive central banks
Fiscal stimulus geared for infrastructure spending
Pent-up demand once as global economies re-open.
Government and private companies increasingly pledging carbon reduction measures.
Inflation ticking higher, as the Fed is taking a new approach of waiting, rather than anticipating, as it has done in the past.
Copper
🏛COPPER SWING ANALYSIS|LONG🚀
🏛COPPER is trading in an uptrend in a rising channel
And as you can see on the chart number 1
The metal broke the pervious all time high with ease on the daily
But then retraced back below the level
While staying inside the rising channel
All of the above paints a mixed picture
But until the channel gets broken,I will remain bullish
But further growth will depend on the coppers ability to fix itself above the key level
If it fails to do so, we will see a bearish breakout eventually
And the price will go down to the nearest support
LONG🚀
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BEWARE IMPORTANT COPPER PRICE LEVEL - HG1! - COPPER - DAILYThank you for your likes and comments! Really appreciated! This is an idea about Copper price, not a financial advice.
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The HG1! Copper Futures have been continuously rising... almost a year.
We realized that summer is coming and that this market have been beating all the selling power trying to bring it down of slower it>
How long is it going to last?
The blue lines represent the channel that the price is following. Being at the top of this channel and seeing a possible strong signal of a pullback, the probability of seeing the market profile change has risen.
The volume involved where huge but will it again beat it and keep going up further?
The next step down is probably at the dotted red horizontal line. Some other "super volumes" interventions happened in that past at that price level.
For a day traders, this is probably something to keep an eye on> For a longer term trader, lowering the exposition is probably smart at this price level. Reentering step by step after this level is passed or when the deep happens.
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 22 – New top on the cards.In our previous analysis, we expected Copper to test the support level before resuming the bullish trend. Instead, the price started the bullish move without testing the support level.
In this context, we expect a pullback to occur around the orange trendline that will act as a trigger for a bullish move that will break the previous high.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 21 – Targeting the support.In our previous analysis, we expect Copper to start a bullish move and break the top. Instead, the price has fallen into a deeper correction.
In this context, in the coming days, we are expecting a slight price increase towards the resistance area, before making another drop, having a chance to reach the support.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
Price action on #Copper $HG The narrative around copper is very compelling.
1) $5T of Government spending in the next 10 years for renewable energy development
2) Electric cars
3) Miners underinvestment in recent years
What this says to me is the simple fundamentals from miners...limited supply would be enough to extend this commodity bull cycle.
Beyond that...we have car manufacturers making bold moves to have a majority of their fleets electric within the next 10 years.
European and California carbon credits markets are becoming more developed...producing incentives for companies to move towards greener technologies. Whether you agree with the politics of it or not...it is happening.
And massive government spending on renewable energy.
What does all this green stuff have to do with copper?
All these need copper...and lots of it!
With just experiences a 50% retracement from the May 21st high of 4.5815 and made a double top with divergent RSI this morning.
Zooming in we can see some impulsive buying around the $4.5 area.
The long term trend in copper looks very promising.
Could it go lower? Of course...but today's price action has me watching very closely.
Sentiment Sunday - GoldSentiment Sunday:
- Eyes are on gold this week, gold bugs are buzzing about a possible explosive breakout.
- Rising material costs signaling consumer inflation, yet Fed's monetary inflation model has not indicated inflation yet.
- Mixed sentiment, as Fed is likely to maintain dovish monetary policies.
- Energy, Industrials, and Industrial/Capital Goods-related materials showing strength, supporting a 'Reflation' macro quadrant situation.
- Poor employment data signaling a possible move toward stagflation. I speculate that the economic data from now will begin to reflect the effects of the pandemic.
- Lumber, copper, cryptocurrencies seeing massive gains, speculators expecting the precious metals to finally trail.
- Elon Musk stated that DOGE was a 'hustle' in his anticipated Saturday Night Live hosting, causing a correction in the cryptocurrency market. Investors are likely exiting and preparing to move into lagging inflationary assets.
- Trend is still not defined, but the bullish case for gold is rather strong.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 20 – New top expected.As we mentioned in our previous analysis, Copper pulled-back and it looks like the price is starting to lose momentum, after reaching our trendline.
In this context, in the coming week expect this pair to make a new top.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
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