Can Rio Tinto Save the Day? The Looming Mining Supply CrisisAs the world races towards a greener future, a critical challenge looms on the horizon: a looming supply shortage for essential energy-transition metals, particularly copper. This shortage, if left unchecked, could jeopardize our ambitious plans for a sustainable future.
Rio Tinto, a global mining behemoth, has sounded the alarm, urging the industry to expand mining operations to meet the escalating demand. The company's chairman, Dominic Barton, has dismissed the notion that mergers and acquisitions alone can solve this crisis. He insists that organic growth, involving the discovery and development of new mines, is the only viable path forward.
The urgency of this situation cannot be overstated. The demand for copper, a vital component in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure, is set to skyrocket in the coming decades. Failure to secure adequate supplies of this critical metal could hinder our progress towards a sustainable and electrified world.
Rio Tinto's leadership in the mining industry is undeniable. Their proactive stance on addressing the supply crisis is commendable, and their commitment to organic growth and exploration for critical minerals demonstrates their dedication to the cause. However, even with the efforts of industry giants like Rio Tinto, the road ahead is fraught with challenges.
The Chinese economy, a major player in the global mining landscape, is currently facing its own difficulties. While Barton remains optimistic about China's ability to overcome these challenges, their current economic state could further exacerbate the supply crisis.
As the world grapples with the pressing issue of climate change, the mining industry must rise to the occasion. The time for complacency is over. It is imperative that we invest in exploration, expand mining operations, and secure the critical resources needed to power a sustainable future. The stakes are high, and the world is watching. Can Rio Tinto and the mining industry save the day?
Copper
Copper Supported by the Fed’s Jumbo CutAfter May’s record peak, copper prices slumped as demand optimism went away due to US and China economic fears, EV adoption slowdown and AI euphoria giving way to skepticism. However, copper staged a rebound, as China has been stepping up its effort to prop the economy, while AI optimism returned recently lifting tech and chip-making sectors. Furthermore US recession fears were quelled after the Fed slashed rates by a jumbo 0.5% last week and pointed to aggressive easing ahead, in what could be a boon for the property sectors where copper is used heavily.
These forces have helped the non-ferrous metal regain control above the EMA200, providing the launch pad for reclaiming the 4.500 handle. This would bring the summer high in the spotlight (4.700), although this level has a higher degree of difficulty.
On the other hand, the Fed’s frontloading creates risk of renewed inflation pressures that could lead to a shallower easing path, while China economic problems persist and the real estate sector remains in distress. Copper starts the current week on the back foot, unable to capitalize on its recent bounce. This sustains risk of sub-EMA200 moves that would pause the momentum, but the downside contains many buffers and prolonged weakness does not look easy, technically nor fundamentally.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Bullish momentum to extend?COPPER is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that align with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.2646
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4.2003
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 4.3858
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
The ART of sitting ON YOUR HANDSI was not always a bear... but my arms are tired of holding these Silver Bags for over a decade. I am still bullish! In the long long term ( ;
I am still holding a longterm SILJ short position ( see previous post ) but the immediate future is not clear. Will we get an explosive rally leading up to... during... or after the FOMC? I would not bet on it. The truth is however that nobody knows. As Ray Dalio says, "He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass"
The next few weeks will provide a challenge for market timers and speculators. I expect plenty of whipsaw and broken hearts before a trend is established (bullish or bearish).
I am waiting for a break of 29.83 to become a Bull and enter Long
I am waiting for a break of 26.67 to become a Bear (a big one) and enter Short
I strongly recommend waiting for a daily close over these levels before getting to comfortable unless you are prepared to keep a tight stop and run for the hills if either of these breaks turn out to be a trap.
Until then this range (in between the two levels will provide plenty of juicy scalping opportunities for cowboys like myself. I am using the .382 Fib level 28.10 (derived from the Oct 23 Low to the High in May 24) as my guiding light and BABB (Bullish above Bearish below) in the interim with TPs at my key break levels. They will be formidable resistance/support zones until broken and proven otherwise. Happy trading!
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Copper - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Copper (HG)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in HG if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy
Sentiment: Advisors very bearish is actually...bullish.
OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI decrease drastically while Commercials have added to longs = bullish.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Bullish Spread Divergence
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & %R
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Dr Copper - Copper continue to decline!?Copper is located in a 4H timeframe, lower than EMA200 and EMA50 and is trading in its mid -term descending channel
Short -term copper purchases can be sought if the downtrend continues to reach the demand zone, which is also intertwined with the weekly copper pivot
The upward correction of copper to the specified supply zones will provide us the sell position
Gold, copper, silver: A hard or soft-landing conundrumMetals were all lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a hard-landing scenario. But not all metals fell equally. We take a look at gold, silver and copper to sort the longs from the shorts, depending on which variant of an economic landing we could be facing.
SILVER'S TIME to TAKE BREATHER Fundamentals:
Bricks buying and geopolitical tensions have kept Gold price elevated pulling up the silver price with it. I believe the Bricks meeting this Sept to be a selling event given that all of the purchase goals (for now) will be met by the meeting. Gold is the stronger of the two metals. I am leaning short Gold but I think silver has more downside potential given recessionary woes (industrial applications).
Seasonal and Election: Looking back Sept-Oct are typically down months for metals.
Technicals: The price is now up against heavy supply zone and major $30 psychological level.
There is a head and shoulders pattern (4r) forming inside of a much larger head and shoulders pattern (2day) (See previous post). At the moment the price has failed to pop back up above the 4hr MA. It may recover. However, I will be selling into strength inside of the the supply zone with a stop on a 2day close above the $30.50 level.
Fed Thoughts: The market has all but priced in a rate cut at this point. Every movement this year has been predicated on them (despite never materializing). I am of the belief that the cut itself will be a selling event regardless of whether or not we get a short lived rally.
Expression: Given that I am skeptical on equities and bearish Silver I will be shorting SILJ given that it has a history of outperforming to the downside on Silver draw downs. In addition, the upside/risk is limited (as much as it can be haha). Major funds are not investing in juniors. They have and will put capital into majors like GOLD and NEM if metals continue to push higher. In addition, miners are not experiencing the upward pressure that Gold and Silver have because central banks and foreign buyers (the reason for the rally in metals) are NOT buying miners, they are buying physical metal. PAAS is also a strong short candidate. It is a basket case (major earnings miss) and will outperform to the downside.
COPPER Rejected on the 1D MA50. Will it rebound or break lower?Copper (HG1!) got rejected yesterday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since early July. This is a clear Bearish Leg on a potential Channel Up pattern, so technically, it may form a bottom on its Higher Lows trend-line and rebound.
If it does, our Target will be the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 4.900 as on the January 17 2023 rebound. If on the other hand the price breaks below 3.800 and the Higher Lows (dotted) trend-line, we will take the loss on the buy and sell, targeting 3.3500 (top of 2 year Support Zone).
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Bearish reversal?COPPER is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.3188
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracememnt.
Stop loss: 4.46047
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 4.1250
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Copper & Oil : Are commodities about to surge? Copper is showing great pattern consolidation.
it appears to be putting in a daily bull flag pattern that looks poised to breakout.
If copper follows some of the other recent price action in the commodity space it makes it even more likely to surge.,
You're seeing #gold #uranium #oil and other all performing well.
Will this dampen and slow down the dis inflation expectations? Perhaps.
I am long SCCO with members and have already secured some profits today with members.
I do think there is more strength to come in copper.
Potential bullish rise?COPPER has reacted off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to our take profit.
Entry: 4.1293
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4.0266
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 4.3154
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
COPPER - Following Gold?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 COPPER has been overall bullish, trading inside the rising wedge pattern in blue.
At present, COPPER is undergoing a correction phase and it is hovering around the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, it is retesting a massive support zone marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #COPPER approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Dr Copper - Which direction will copper go!?Copper is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel
The basis of short-term trading can be considered as breaking or maintaining the drawn short-term upward trend line
The failure of this line and copper reaching the demand zone will provide short-term buying conditions for copper
On the other hand, the authentic failure of the downward channel and copper reaching the supply zone, which is also at the intersection with the copper monthly pivot, will provide us with the opportunity to sell it with a suitable risk reward
Are we finally ready to move higher in GOLD?In a gold bear market, Barrick Gold's stock hasn't done much at all and ultimately has underperformed as investors anticipate lower earnings. However, investors might see this as a buying opportunity if precious metals see liquidity rotation out of the more overpriced and inflated assets.
Why are Interest rates falling? Time to buy? We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates.
Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom.
Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation?
Is the bond market pricing in a recession?
I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness.
Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper.
This drives the disinflationary narrative.
I think its to early to tell whether this decline is from demand or global weakness.
Price levels that induce Fomo #1These price levels are dangerous for retail traders. They are highs and lows of price strucutre. They are walls where price has bounced mutlitple times. They are prices where some traders may begin to chase price in attempt to catch the trend and not miss out. At the same time, they provide great entries for mean reversion traders. Watch and Learn and safe trading.
COPPER 📊 #XCUUSD
⏱ TIME: 1D
📝Technically and fundamentally, it is a very good place and the position has little risk
⭕️risk: low
📍The initial buying market around: 3.98
📌TP1: 4.086 $
📌TP2: 4.175 $
📌TP3: 4.298 $
📌TP4: 4.408 $
⛔️SL: 3.86 $
❌These analyzes are just to give a better perspective for you dear ones
Do not base on buying and selling❌