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Copper

COPPER: Long term sell signalCopper is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.350, MACD = 0.033, ADX = 19.471) as it is at the top of the 2023 Channel Down, but having failed to cross over it, opens the way for a big decline in the first quarter of 2024. As you can see the Channel Down that started last January looks very similar to the one in 2012/13. Both emerged after a Global peak and then rejection to an oversold 1W RSI bottom. It is very interesting how similar the ranges are, both Channel Down bearish legs have been around -18.50%. We are turning bearish on the most optimal technical level and aim for another -18.50% decline (TP = 3.2500) or up when the 1W RSI gets oversold (under 30.000). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
COMEX:HG1!Short
by InvestingScope
Copper ~ Help Me Obi-China, You're My Only Hope (2H)CAPITALCOM:COPPER chart mapping/analysis. Copper - off its October lows, yet still contending with global macro headwinds & China's difficulty in shaking off its deflationary economic funk.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Prelim trading range = ~3.93 - ~3.73. Under bearish pressure from 38.2% Fib rejections. Bullish reaction to China/macro economic news = bounce off lower range of parallel channel (green) + 200SMA confluence support / break above 38.2% Fib / break above ~3.93 upper trading range. Bullish extension target(s) = 50% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone. Bearish reaction to China/macro economic news = break below ~3.73 lower trading range / lower range of parallel channel (green) / break underneath 200SMA, becoming dynamic resistance. Bearish extension target(s) = 23.6% Fib / lower range of descending parallel channel (light blue).
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by BlueHatInvestor
COPPER Correction to accelerate lower.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!) 1.5 months ago (October 24), we caught the most optimal bottom buy signal: The price action didn't only hit our Target but also broke above both the January 18 2023 Lower Highs trend-line and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The rejection that took place on Monday though, is giving rise to a new Falling Wedge pattern with the current Bearish Leg on full display. The bearish signal is already confirmed as the 1D MACD has completed a Bearish Cross, and so far the sequence is very similar to the August 01 rejection. As a result, we are bearish on Copper, looking to take advantage of today's green 1D candle and short near the closing in anticipation of being close to the peak. Our short term Target is 3.6100, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, a symmetrical level where the price bounced on August 17. Selling can only be extended if the green Support Zone breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Short
by TradingShot
Leveraging the AUDUSD Strength Amidst USD WeaknessThere has been an opportunity that has emerged due to the recent fluctuations in currency values and the growing demand for copper exports to China. As you may be aware, the USD has been experiencing a period of weakness, while the AUD has shown signs of strength. This presents an advantageous situation, as we can leverage the stronger Australian dollar against the weaker US dollar. In light of this, I propose that we explore the possibility of exporting copper to China. With the AUDUSD exchange rate in our favor, we can maximize our profits by capitalizing on China's increasing demand for copper. China, being one of the largest consumers of copper worldwide, offers a lucrative market for our manufacturing. By exporting copper to China, there is a growing demand and take advantage of the current exchange rate of AUDUSD.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Copper-Elliot wave counts and market structureI have earlier posted a daily chart on Copper sharing my views on this commodity and stating that it is now in wave 3 structure and will be slowly advancing towards 4.67$ mark going into 2024. By referring to that chart you can get a better understanding of this chart since that talks about a bigger picture about what to expect from this commodity. Coming to this chart, the metal made a leading diagonal(Elliot wave theory) between 17th Oct and 6th Nov. That is marked as wave (i). After an impulse gets completed it is always followed by a corrective wave which can retrace even upto 90%(but never 100 if the prior wave was impulsive).In this case the wave (ii) retraced 50% of wave(i) from 6Nov. till 13Nov. A new impulse was again set in place on 13th of Nov. The Elliot wave theory is a very accurate and the most logical way of looking at the market structure and getting an understanding of how the price moves. Once you start to look at the market from the Elliot wave perspective you will start believing that whatever happens in the market is never random. The market always has a structure and logic, which many a times we as individuals may not spot(immediately) and that only means we need to up our game to try and understand this beautiful market place. The purpose of this chart was not only to talk about copper and where it might be headed, but was also to give an insight to all about how i approach the charts and what are the points that i look for. Note*- This chart is for educational purpose only
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by neeraj_2_sharma
Gold: Shining Bright with OpportunitiesGold is once again in the spotlight, and here’s why! Economic Cycles, PMI & Gold The US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator often used to identify turns in the economic cycle. A below 50 PMI print indicates contraction in the US manufacturing cycle, while a print above 50 suggests expansion. Generally speaking, expanding manufacturing cycles spell a boost for industrial materials, like copper, while contractionary periods spell downturns in the economy and a preference for 'flight to safety', boosting gold holdings. An interesting observation from the chart above is the correlation between the Gold/Copper ratio and the inverted US PMI, moving in tandem over the last decade. However, looking at the current scenario, the PMI has turned lower, yet the Gold/Copper ratio has remained relatively muted, suggesting that gold may currently be underpriced. Similarly, the Gold/Silver ratio shows a less pronounced but similar effect. Significant drops in the PMI below the 50 level have historically triggered notable increases in the Gold/Copper ratio. With the PMI currently below 50 for a sustained period, this might be priming the ratio for a potential upward surge. Yields, Fed Expectation & Gold As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold loses its appeal when interest rates rise, leading investors to prefer interest-yielding products. We covered the effect of a Fed rate cut on gold in a previous article here . While the Fed remains steadfast in holding rates, even the act of pausing rate hikes positively impacts gold. This effect is observed via the Gold/US10Y Yields ratio. The previous pause in rate hikes preceded a significant run-up in this ratio. Additionally, this ratio is currently near its resistance level, which it has respected multiple times over the last decade. With the Fed expected to continue holding rates, now could be an opportune time to consider adding gold to your portfolio. Gold Price Action Gold’s current price action also shows a completed cup-and-handle pattern. With an initial attempt to break higher halted, it now trades right above the handle. Additionally, gold could arguably be trading in an ascending triangle pattern, as noted by its price action as well as generally declining volume, potentially signaling a bullish continuation pattern. In summary, given the Fed's stance on holding rates, the correlation between PMI and the Gold/Copper ratio, and the bullish technical indicators in gold's price action, a positive outlook on gold seems reasonable. To express our view, we can buy the CME Gold Futures at the current level of 1962. Using the cup and handle pattern to guide the take profit level, at 2400 and stop at 1890. Each 0.10 point move in gold futures is for 10 USD. The same view can also be expressed with greater precision using the CME Micro Gold contract where the notional is one-tenth of the regular size gold contract. Here, each 0.10 point move is for 1 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
9
🧽 Mister Poper. Meet The Cleaner Of Your DreamsCopper price continued to provide negative trades affected by the frequent stability below the additional barrier at 3.7280, to manage to reach some negative stations by touching 3.6100. Also, RSI stochastic continues to provide the negative momentum to allow us to suggest forming new negative waves to attack the additional support near 3.5000 followed by monitoring its behavior to manage to confirm the upcoming trend. The expected trend: Bearish
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Pandorra
COPPER Channel Down bottom buy opportunityCopper (HG1!) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the June 29 low and since 5 days, it entered the 11 month Support Zone. The 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, which has been a buy signal the previous 2 times within the Channel Down. Every bearish sequence in 2023 has seen a rebound that hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This is good enough for us to buy and target 3.7600 (0.618 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
London Metals Exchange Week 2023 reviewAs London Metals Exchange Week 2023 wraps up, we summarise some of the key observations for the state of the base metals in 2023 and what are likely to drivers for the markets going into 2024. Better than the macro data would indicate Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop especially in China, metal demand is holding up fairly well. Demand indicators are generally holding up better than macroeconomic data would suggest, indicating other forces are at play. The main diver of the discrepancy is likely to be the shift in demand for metals coming from the energy transition. The upside surprise in Chinese demand can be linked to accelerated grid spending in the country which is a metal intensive activity (Figure 1). China has ‘net zero’ ambitions and has been using this era of relatively low copper prices to accelerate the buildout of its grid infrastructure that will be essential for increasing the capacity of electric vehicles on its roads. More broadly, China’s piece-meal stimulus activity is starting to bear fruits. Aggregate financing to the real economy has turned a corner after several months of disappointment and is now rising faster than consensus expectations, which could bode well for further metal demand. It’s worth noting that copper demand in China had not fallen as much as aggregate financing data would have indicated (Figure 2). We believe the stimulus will continue to support the metals market into 2024, although we note that China has not yet offered a big ‘bazooka’ of a stimulus package yet. More metal supply in 2024 Markets are concerned that the supply outages in a range of metals could reverse course next year and therefore start to weigh on price. In its latest projections, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) now envisages a massive supply surplus of 467,000 tonnes in 2024 (previously 298,000 tonnes). This is thanks to a considerable expansion of refined copper production, especially in China, though new production capacities in Indonesia, India and the US are also set to contribute to nearly 5% year-on-year production growth in 2024. However, the group maintain a deficit forecast in 2023 in the order of 27,000 tonnes, albeit a narrower deficit compared to their April forecast of 114,000 tonnes. Other metal study groups (such as the International Nickel Study Group, International Lead and Zinc Study Group) that met the prior week also expect higher supplies. However, we note that a lot of European metal smelters that went offline during the energy crisis of 2022 are unlikely to come back. Furthermore, these forecasts are based on all planned production coming to the market, which is rarely the case. Usually a 1-2% supply disruption takes place and that has the potential to significantly alter the balance. Nickel oversupply spilling into Class 1 Market participants are increasingly worried about a Class 1 nickel oversupply in 2024. Indonesia’s mining and processing expansion has largely impacted Class 2 nickel. That is the material most suitable for meeting Chinese demand for nickel pig iron (NPI). High quality, Class 1 nickel, however, has been in a supply deficit in recent years. Class 1 has seen increasing demand from battery applications as electric vehicles expand production (and utilisation). However, conversion of Class 2 to Class 1 is looking increasingly economically feasible and Indonesia is at the forefront. There is even potential for a trade deal that could see Indonesian supply become Inflation Reduction Act compliant. That could see US battery demand be met by a new source of metal supply. At the same time, what was thought to be a localised shift to less nickel-intense battery technology in China, could become a more global trend. That is also a source of concern for the market. Market developments The London Metal Exchange (LME) Chief Executive Matthew Chamberlain announced at the main LME dinner that the LME has launched a new collaboration on product development with its Chinese rival, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). The announcement came after news last month that SHFE was looking into the possible launch of a nickel futures contract for international use. A much larger proportion of industrial nickel use today is Class 2 rather than Class 1. China is seen as the main venue for transactions in Class 2 nickel and should have a greater role in benchmark price formation. The Class 1 LME contract thus has a degree of disconnect with the bulk of current industrial use and therefore has been seen as an imperfect hedging tool. While the LME didn’t offer much detail about its collaboration with the SHFE, an obvious area for joint work is in nickel. Conclusions Overall, the mood at the LME week was sombre, not just because of the geopolitical events that took place the weekend before the event. However, many were surprised at the strength of current demand. As we have highlighted, commodities tend to be late-cycle performers and we are likely seeing that in play in the current economic cycle. The energy transition is adding further fuel to metal demand that could help the complex during otherwise challenging times if a perfect soft-landing is not achieved. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
EUREX:FCIN1!
by aneekaguptaWTE