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Copper

COPPER Sell opportunity within a Channel Down.Copper (HG1!) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), on a Bullish Leg following the February 09 2024 rebound. That was a Lower Low within the Channel Down that started in December. The long-term pattern is a Falling Wedge and being much closer to its top, after the January 31 2024 than its bottom, this is a strong sell opportunity. The August 2023 Lower High rejection initially hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before making a Lower Low much later. As a result our target is 3.6250, which is just above the0.786 Fibonacci level and a technical Lower Low for the short-term (blue) Channel Down. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Short
by TradingShot
Copper futures. Disinflation is almost there to comeCopper futures fell further to around $3.8 per pound, marking a weekly loss driven by concerns over demand from China and heightened US interest rates. China's manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January, contributing to the negative sentiment. With a robust US jobs report, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March have diminished. Weaker Q1 industrial activity is expected to dampen demand, although Glencore's projected 5% production decline in 2023, along with an anticipated additional drop in 2024, could offset this. Despite these challenges, there is still hope that China will implement measures to stabilize its economy. Technical graph illustrates also, 5-years SMA is a massive long term support in this time for Copper futures COMEX:HG1! , as it breakthrough can deliver solid further losses for Copper futures prices, like in 2020 (30% off), in 2014-16 (40% off) and in 2008-09 (50% off).
COMEX:HG1!
by PandorraResearch
Dr. Copper Sets Sights on Higher LevelsDr. Copper has recently demonstrated signs of strength, largely attributed to China's stimulus measures. This price surge is occurring within a pattern of consistently higher lows since the lows of 2023. It's important to highlight that this upward momentum previously broke through the downtrend line stemming from the highs of 2023. Following its breakthrough of the $3.82 resistance level yesterday, attention is now focused on the potential for a sustained positive price trend. If the industrial metal maintains a price above $3.82 per pound, it could set its sights on the psychologically significant level of $4 and the resistance level established in August. These levels appear to be potential objectives worth considering in the near future.
PEPPERSTONE:COPPERLong
by Pepperstone
PLATINUM, WHAT IS IT AND WHY THE HECK WOULD I WANT THIS METALWhat is Platinum? Platinum is a chemical element with the symbol Pt and atomic number 78. It belongs to the noble metals group, which also includes palladium, rhodium, iridium, osmium, and ruthenium. Platinum is characterized by its high density, malleability, ductility, and resistance to corrosion. These unique properties make it an invaluable material for various industrial applications. Where is Platinum Found? While platinum is relatively scarce, it is not as rare as some other precious metals. The majority of the world's platinum supply comes from two main sources: primary production and recycling. South Africa is the leading producer of platinum, contributing significantly to the global supply. Russia, Zimbabwe, and Canada also have substantial platinum deposits. Platinum is often found alongside other minerals, such as nickel and copper, in ore deposits known as platinum group elements (PGE). Extracting platinum from these ores involves complex processes that require advanced mining and refining technologies. Why Would You Want Platinum? Jewelry and Luxury Goods: Platinum's brilliant white sheen and resistance to tarnish make it a popular choice for crafting high-end jewelry. Platinum jewelry is not only exquisite but also durable, making it an ideal choice for engagement rings, wedding bands, and other fine accessories. Catalytic Converters: The automotive industry extensively uses platinum in catalytic converters, where it plays a crucial role in reducing harmful emissions from vehicles. Its catalytic properties make it an essential component in promoting cleaner air and environmental sustainability. Electronics and Industry: Platinum is a key player in various industrial applications, including electronics, due to its excellent conductivity and resistance to corrosion. It is used in the production of electrical contacts, laboratory equipment, and in the manufacturing of glass. Investment and Financial Markets: Platinum, like gold and silver, is considered a precious metal and is actively traded in financial markets. Some investors choose to include platinum in their portfolios as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties. Platinum mining is a challenging and complex process. Extracting platinum from the Earth involves several intricate steps, and the scarcity of platinum deposits adds to the difficulty of mining this precious metal. Here is an overview of the key challenges associated with platinum mining: Ore Extraction: Platinum is often found in combination with other metals, forming platinum group elements (PGE) deposits. Extracting platinum from these ores requires advanced mining techniques. The ores are typically low in concentration, making the extraction process more intricate than that of more abundant metals. Depth of Deposits: Many platinum deposits are located deep underground, which adds to the complexity and cost of mining. Deep-level mining requires specialized equipment and poses safety challenges for miners. In some cases, mines may extend kilometers below the Earth's surface. Energy Intensity: The extraction and refining of platinum involve energy-intensive processes. The high temperatures required for smelting and refining contribute to the overall energy consumption of platinum mining operations. Environmental Impact: Mining operations, especially in ecologically sensitive areas, can have significant environmental impacts. Platinum mining may result in habitat disruption, soil erosion, and water pollution. Sustainable mining practices and environmental regulations are essential to mitigate these effects. Labor Intensity: Mining platinum is a labor-intensive process that requires skilled workers. The complexity of the operations, coupled with safety considerations in deep-level mining, makes it essential to have trained personnel. Market Volatility: The platinum market is subject to price fluctuations, influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical events. This volatility can impact the profitability of mining operations and investment decisions in the platinum industry. Technological Challenges: The extraction and processing of platinum ores require advanced technologies. Developing and implementing efficient and environmentally responsible mining technologies is an ongoing challenge for the industry. Despite these challenges, the demand for platinum in various industries, such as jewelry, automotive, and electronics, continues to drive the exploration and extraction of new platinum sources. Innovations in mining technologies and sustainable practices are being explored to address the difficulties associated with platinum mining and ensure its responsible and ethical extraction. THE TECHNICALS Sharp downtrend, weak, although down, it is a support trend. Two strong (one stronger than the other) support trends, IF UNDER, THEN BUY is probably the rule for those. It looks like there is some downside to come, which has been showing. The ideal price targets are thicker, and basically mean, under perfect conditions, I'd exit and enter at these levels, however, nothing is ever perfect. AS far as what the technicals say for price, I'd say there is a good chance it can maintain $800, however, there is a possible dip showing, which takes price down to $700. Again, these are both under or at major trends, and we can say that if price gets to these levels, I have a better than average chance at profit. AND if I'm wrong, I'm backed up by multiple support lines, which means less time in the red. Other scenario is where the bullish momentum keeps moving up at we head up to 1200 or so before hitting that huge dip. However, I tend to see this as the less likely option. RSI is showing the dip, along with various other indicators as coming in the short term and being backed up with support and buying in the longer term, this doesn't include a black swan event, which would theoretically take the price way down, and rocket to all time highs, as platinum will likely hold value. Good luck!! Personal opinion, I'm bullish long term from a fundamental side and technical side.
TVC:PLATINUMEducation
by nicktussing77
Copper shark attackIf you trust the recent 9/20 day moving average crossover enough to short copper, today's bounce back toward the 9MA might be a good one to sell. When setting a profit target to the downside, a harmonic trader could project a shark with its C-point (D-point in the diagram) in the neighborhood of 3.5365 (red circle), for about a USD0.25 profit per contract. This would work out to USD625 for the mini contract or USD3125 for the full contract. If the shark went on to complete by drawing a full CD leg (green arrow to green circle), that would be another USD0.25 to the upside.
COMEX_MINI:MHG1!
by SwingWaiter
COPPER, Teasing a multi-weekly TOP GAINS soon! SEED!Copper is in continuous ascend mode this past few days / weeks after touching an important major order block at 61.8 FIB levels. Since then, significant net accumulation has been registered on a daily basis. Expect some generous price growth from the current price range. A seed from here is ideal while it's still in a slow roll ascend -- but not for long. Initial target is 5.0. Spotted at 3.80 SEED LONG. TAYOR. Safeguard funds always / not advice.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by JSAL
Metal Commodities Year End ReviewCOMEX: Micro Gold ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ), Copper ( COMEX:HG1! ), Aluminum ( COMEX:ALI1! ) 2023 is coming to an end. What are some of the biggest headlines of the year? • China’s ending of Zero-Covid gave hope to global economic recovery and an increase in commodities demand, but it was short-lived; • U.S. regional bank crisis triggered a flight to safety; • U.S. debt ceiling crisis escalated but was resolved at the eleventh hour; • The runaway inflation was contained as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates eleven times; • House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted in a history making vote; • The Israel-Hamas conflict broke out in October, and geopolitical risk intensified as shipping routes in the Red Sea were under attack by the Houthi militia; • U.S. reins in Cryptos with public trials and huge fines rendered to two large Exchanges; • Fed cut became the new market narrative, which pushes equities to record high. These events have significant impacts on commodities. Today, I will give a high-level review of metal commodities’ performance in 2023, and what lies ahead in 2024. Energy and Agricultural commodities will be covered in my subsequent writings. A Good Year for Precious Metals As of December 27th, Gold futures are up 13.2% year-to-date to $2,091 per troy ounce. The benchmark precious metal reclaims its status as the preferred safe-haven asset. • The collapses of three regional banks in March posted a potential systemic risk in the US banking system. Gold gained 13% within a month as investors bought bullion and dumped dollar-denominated assets. • Gold pulled back by 7% following the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis in early June, and the US government avoided a default of sovereignty debt. • Since the Gaza War broke out, gold gained 9% as the geopolitical crisis escalated. • Gold rises as the Fed cut narrative takes hold and investors are increasingly bullish. On December 3rd, spot gold reached an all-time high of $2,146. 2024 Outlook for Gold: Lowering interest rates is bullish for gold, as the opportunity cost to hold the non-yielding bullion would be lower, comparing to interest bearing instruments. With two ongoing regional wars, geopolitical tension is expected to remain high in the new year. This is also positive for safe-haven assets like gold. The December 19th CFTC Commitments of Traders report (COT) shows that “Managed Money” has 155,697 long positions and 47,421 short positions. The 108K net long positions indicate that speculative traders are very bullish on gold. Trade Ideas: Buying gold in the dip may be a good strategy in 2024. For example, a pullback could happen if the Fed issues a hawkish statement, or monthly inflation rate rebounds, or a cease-fire achieved in either the Middle East or Ukraine. The February contract (MGCG4) of COMEX Micro Gold Futures is quoted at 2091.6 on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $20,916 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $830 in initial margin. Hypothetically, if gold futures bounds back to its all-time high $ 2,146, a long position would gain 54 points and $540 per contract (= 54 x $10). This would represent a theoretical return of 65% (= 540/830) excluding transaction fees. On the other hand, if gold price pulls back, the long position would lose $10 for each $1 of gold price decline per ounce. Copper Under Pressure by Gloomy Economic Outlook As of December 27th, copper futures are up 4.9% year-to-date to $3.98 per pound. The expected change in the balance of supply and demand drives copper price trend. • In November 2022, China ended a 3-year-long Zero-Covid policy. It gave hope to global economic recovery and an increase in commodities demand. Copper rose from $3.60 to $4.20, up 16% within two months. • China’s economic recovery lost steam after just one quarter. Copper prices have been trending down most of the year and touched a 52-week low of $3.55 in October. • Recent data shows the U.S. economy to be resilient, employment market strong and inflation trending down. Adding in the aggressive rate cut expectations, copper rebounded 12% to $3.98. 2024 Outlook for Copper: Below is the projected balance of supply and demand for copper, according to data from International Copper Study Group (ICSG). • 2024: supply 27.8 million tons (mt), demand 27.5mt; excess supply is 300,000 tons. • 2025: supply 28.6mt, demand 28.4mt; excess supply is 170,000 tons. As an industrial commodity, copper supply tends to be relatively stable and easy to forecast. However, its demand could vary substantially as business cycle rotates from boom to bust. The March contract (HGH4) of COMEX Copper Futures is quoted at $3.954 per pound on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 25,000 pounds, or $98,850 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $4,500 in initial margin. The recent COT report shows that Managed Money has 60,873 long positions and 45,806 short positions. The net long positions are small, not a good signal on trader intention. While investors expect a soft landing for the US economy, whether the global economy could avoid a recession remains to be seen. Geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty. I would wait for more data on copper demand before forming a trading strategy. Aluminum Taking a Hit as Demand Weakened As of December 27th, aluminum futures are up 0.4% year-to-date to $2,335 per ton. Like copper, the balance of supply and demand drives aluminum price trend. • China’s ending of Zero-Covid pushed aluminum prices up $400 within a month. • Aluminum prices have since declined and touched a 52-week low of $2,072 in August. • With good economic data and rate cut expectations, aluminum rebounded 13%. 2024 Outlook for Aluminum: The forecasted balance of supply and demand for aluminum by SMM: • 2023: supply 49.9mt, demand 50.0mt, supply shortage is 93,000 tons. • 2024: supply 51.1mt, demand 51.1mt, supply shortage is 50,000 tons. Current forecast estimates that aluminum is near supply and demand balance in 2024. The March contract (ALIH4) of COMEX Aluminum Futures is quoted at $2,375.5 per ton on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 25 tons, or $59,387.5 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $2,000 in initial margin. The recent COT report shows that Managed Money has 451 longs and 1,201 shorts. The net short positions indicate that speculative traders are bearish on aluminum. I would wait for more data on aluminum demand before forming a trading strategy. To sum up , I am bullish on gold with an outlook for lower interest rates and heightened geopolitical risks. For copper and aluminum, demand outlook is uncertain depending on whether a global economic recession could be avoided. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
COPPER: Long term sell signalCopper is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.350, MACD = 0.033, ADX = 19.471) as it is at the top of the 2023 Channel Down, but having failed to cross over it, opens the way for a big decline in the first quarter of 2024. As you can see the Channel Down that started last January looks very similar to the one in 2012/13. Both emerged after a Global peak and then rejection to an oversold 1W RSI bottom. It is very interesting how similar the ranges are, both Channel Down bearish legs have been around -18.50%. We are turning bearish on the most optimal technical level and aim for another -18.50% decline (TP = 3.2500) or up when the 1W RSI gets oversold (under 30.000). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
COMEX:HG1!Short
by InvestingScope
Copper ~ Help Me Obi-China, You're My Only Hope (2H)CAPITALCOM:COPPER chart mapping/analysis. Copper - off its October lows, yet still contending with global macro headwinds & China's difficulty in shaking off its deflationary economic funk.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Prelim trading range = ~3.93 - ~3.73. Under bearish pressure from 38.2% Fib rejections. Bullish reaction to China/macro economic news = bounce off lower range of parallel channel (green) + 200SMA confluence support / break above 38.2% Fib / break above ~3.93 upper trading range. Bullish extension target(s) = 50% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone. Bearish reaction to China/macro economic news = break below ~3.73 lower trading range / lower range of parallel channel (green) / break underneath 200SMA, becoming dynamic resistance. Bearish extension target(s) = 23.6% Fib / lower range of descending parallel channel (light blue).
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by BlueHatInvestor