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Copper

Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?Intricate dance between gold and copper prices is a tale beyond mere metals. It reflects global economic sentiments, industrial demand, geopolitical angst, and investment trends. Gazing into the crystal ball to decipher the future of the gold to copper ratio, a fascinating narrative unfolds, particularly highlighting copper's brighter prospects. Copper is displaying record futures premium unseen since 1994 fueled by supply side concerns. Beacon of positive economic data from China, is helping Copper shine brighter than Gold. This paper delves into the forces propelling copper and illustrates how portfolio managers can use the gold-to-copper ratio to gain risk reduced exposure to copper’s ascent. COPPER SUPPLY IS FACING PLENTLY OF HEADWINDS Mined copper and Refined copper are facing potential supply disruptions. Copper miners have benefited from the growth in supply over the past year. Australian mining giants reported higher annual copper production (BHP up 7% and Rio Tinto up 3%). Both benefited from a higher realized price. Copper mining costs for Australian miners were higher due to outages. While copper operations have done well, other commodities have not. Iron Ore, Aluminum, Platinum Group Metals, and Nickel prices are performing poorly. This has negatively impacted performance of mining majors. BHP profit was flat while Rio Tinto was down 9%. It is likely that miners will start scaling down production to boost profitability. Some have already started. For instance, Anglo American announced that it would lower its copper production guidance by 20% to 730k-790k tonnes. Mine outages are another source of concern. Macquarie Bank highlighted that disruptions remain elevated resulting in supply deficit of 700k tonnes in 2024. Copper shortage risks exacerbating the ongoing raw material shortage at refiners. Chinese copper smelters announced a rare joint production cut last month due to shortage of ore. Consequently, Chinese copper spot treatment charges (measure of refiner profits) plunged 75% in merely two months. Recent guidance from BHP (+7%) and Rio Tinto (+11%) point to a sharp increase in copper production signaling strong demand. Rio Tinto’s own smelter projects are coming back online this year, and its guidance suggests refined copper production will surge 40%. This will exacerbate ongoing raw ore shortage. COPPER FUTURES PREMIUM SURGES TO HIGHEST SINCE 1994 Potential supply disruptions are evident in the market. The contango for copper futures on CME Group is sharply steeper signaling even higher prices in the future. Source: CME QuikStrike Front-month futures are trading sharply higher than the spot price. According to Bloomberg, the gap between LME copper 3-month forward and cash market is at its highest since 1994. Copper prices are clearly sensitive to supply side shocks. CHINA’S RECOVERING ECONOMY SUPPORTS COPPER DEMAND Copper prices are shining bright. Supply constraint is not the only reason. Demand outlook is promising. Chinese economy has started to build up pace. Outlook however remains uncertain. Copper is overwhelmingly impacted by industrial and manufacturing activity and growth. Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI surged from 50.9 to 51.1 in March. It marked the fifth consecutive month of manufacturing expansion which augurs well for copper demand. However, demand side headwinds remain. Besides manufacturing, housing is a key sector driving copper consumption. Housing construction consumes copper for wiring and piping. Persistent housing slowdown will drag down copper demand. TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO BULLISH COPPER COPPER GOLD Both copper and gold exhibit strong bullishness. Technical signals for copper are marginally greater than those for gold. Copper shows stronger positive momentum according to RSI while Gold’s momentum is fading. Gold also faces resistance at its R1 pivot point while copper has found support at its R1 pivot point. OPTIONS MARKET BODE WELL FOR COPPER RELATIVE TO GOLD Positioning on CME options market signals that both copper and gold have a bullish outlook. However, copper’s put/call ratio is lower, indicating a more bullish sentiment. Unlike gold, copper has seen a buildup of bullish positioning over the past week too. COPPER CME copper options have a put call ratio of 0.44 as of 4/April. Source: CME QuikStrike Changes to open interest have been bullish with a larger growth in calls relative to puts over the past week. GOLD CME gold options have a put call ratio of 0.72 as of 4/April. Source: CME QuikStrike Puts open interest has been on the rise, especially in near-term contracts over the past week. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS ALSO FAVOR COPPER OVER GOLD COPPER Asset managers have switched from net short to net long positioning over the past month in CME copper derivatives. However, the most recent report shows short positioning being built up sharply. GOLD Asset managers built up a large net long position beginning March in COMEX Gold. Since then, positioning has since remained unchanged at net long. Asset managers have also been consistently scaling back short positions over the last month. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Copper is faced with the potential of worsening supply disruptions. Supply of raw ore for refiners is already disrupted, forcing them to become unprofitable. This situation is likely to worsen as Rio Tinto’s smelting plants come online through the year consuming even more raw ore. Supply of ore is also being cut by miners as they face unprofitable conditions. Supply of ore is also rising. Australian miners stated that production is expected to rise this year. Supply may become resilient if refiner’s scale back production. Demand favors copper with consistent economic recovery in Chinese manufacturing. Housing remains a headwind creating downside risk to demand. Copper prices are high and so is uncertainty on the path ahead. Prices are up 10% YTD as of 4/April. As such, a straightforward long position is risky. Demand at present is not higher, as suggested by the spot discount. In case the disruptions do not materialize, prices could pull back sharply. Alternative to an outright position in copper is the Gold-Copper ratio which exhibits strong mean reversion. The ratio is also elevated right now, owing to the massive rally in gold prices through 2024. Gold is trading near its all-time high, which is limiting demand and further price appreciation. Contrastingly, copper is still far from its highs of 2022. Expecting copper outperformance, a short position in the gold-copper spread can be used to gain exposure to copper’s tailwinds with lower risk. The following hypothetical trade setup comprises of a long position in CME Micro Copper Futures and a short position in CME Micro Gold futures. The position requires two contracts of Micro Copper for each contract of Micro Gold to balance the notional values. Each Micro gold contract provides exposure to 10 troy ounces of gold (representing a notional value of ~USD 23k. Each Micro copper contract provides exposure to 2500 pounds of copper (representing a notional value of ~USD 10.6k). • Entry: 558 • Target: 531 • Stop Loss: 567 • Profit at Target: USD 1,402 • Loss at Stop: USD 333 • Reward-Risk: 4.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. 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COMEX:GC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Copper Prices on the Rise - Do Your Research Before You T Copper prices have recently reached a 14-month high, driven in part by China's economic improvement. This could be a potential trading opportunity, but it's important to be well-informed before making any decisions. Copper is a key economic indicator, and its demand is expected to rise. However, the market can be volatile. Here are some resources to help you make informed decisions: • Copper price charts and analysis • Information on copper trading risks Remember, successful trading requires research, understanding your risk tolerance, and aligning your strategy with your goals
AMEX:COPXLong
by bryandowningqln
75: Exploring the Electric Vehicle and Copper ConnectionIn the ever-evolving landscape of the financial markets, the intersection between Electric Vehicles (EVs) and copper presents a compelling narrative. As interest in EVs surges, propelled by advancements in technology and a global shift towards sustainability, the demand for key components such as copper intensifies. Recent market dynamics have seen a lack of enthusiasm for EV stocks, prompting car manufacturers to implement price reductions to stimulate sales. However, this move signifies a strategic pivot rather than a sign of weakness, as companies aim to bolster revenues for further investment in the burgeoning EV sector. Crucially, the production of EV batteries heavily relies on copper, emphasizing its integral role in the industry. Consequently, a resurgence in copper demand is anticipated, driven by the expanding EV market and the broader digitalization trend. Technical analysis reveals copper's struggle to breach the 4.12 level, hinting at potential downside movements. Key support zones are identified around 3.37 and 2.83, where increased buying interest in copper is expected. These levels coincide with opportune entry points for investors eyeing the EV sector, as copper targets new highs, with an ambitious target of 6.49. We can see that the convergence of EVs and copper presents a compelling trading opportunity. As the EV market continues to evolve, savvy investors can capitalize on the interplay between these sectors for potential gains.
COMEX:HG1!
by Soldi75
2
COPPER Best sell entry of the year.Copper (HG1!) has entered the 3.9740 - 4.0235 Resistance Zone that has been in effect since May 01 2023. It has provided the rejections of August 01 2023 and December 27 2023, with the latter hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement upon its reversal and the former the 0.786 level. Technically the current 1D CCI pattern is almost identical to the one that preceded the August 01 2023 peak. We will pursue Target 1 at 3.800 (Fib 0.618) and Target 2 at 3.7400 (Fib 0.786). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Short
by TradingShot
1
COPPER Sell opportunity within a Channel Down.Copper (HG1!) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), on a Bullish Leg following the February 09 2024 rebound. That was a Lower Low within the Channel Down that started in December. The long-term pattern is a Falling Wedge and being much closer to its top, after the January 31 2024 than its bottom, this is a strong sell opportunity. The August 2023 Lower High rejection initially hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before making a Lower Low much later. As a result our target is 3.6250, which is just above the0.786 Fibonacci level and a technical Lower Low for the short-term (blue) Channel Down. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Short
by TradingShot
Copper futures. Disinflation is almost there to comeCopper futures fell further to around $3.8 per pound, marking a weekly loss driven by concerns over demand from China and heightened US interest rates. China's manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January, contributing to the negative sentiment. With a robust US jobs report, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March have diminished. Weaker Q1 industrial activity is expected to dampen demand, although Glencore's projected 5% production decline in 2023, along with an anticipated additional drop in 2024, could offset this. Despite these challenges, there is still hope that China will implement measures to stabilize its economy. Technical graph illustrates also, 5-years SMA is a massive long term support in this time for Copper futures COMEX:HG1! , as it breakthrough can deliver solid further losses for Copper futures prices, like in 2020 (30% off), in 2014-16 (40% off) and in 2008-09 (50% off).
COMEX:HG1!
by PandorraResearch
Dr. Copper Sets Sights on Higher LevelsDr. Copper has recently demonstrated signs of strength, largely attributed to China's stimulus measures. This price surge is occurring within a pattern of consistently higher lows since the lows of 2023. It's important to highlight that this upward momentum previously broke through the downtrend line stemming from the highs of 2023. Following its breakthrough of the $3.82 resistance level yesterday, attention is now focused on the potential for a sustained positive price trend. If the industrial metal maintains a price above $3.82 per pound, it could set its sights on the psychologically significant level of $4 and the resistance level established in August. These levels appear to be potential objectives worth considering in the near future.
PEPPERSTONE:COPPERLong
by Pepperstone
PLATINUM, WHAT IS IT AND WHY THE HECK WOULD I WANT THIS METALWhat is Platinum? Platinum is a chemical element with the symbol Pt and atomic number 78. It belongs to the noble metals group, which also includes palladium, rhodium, iridium, osmium, and ruthenium. Platinum is characterized by its high density, malleability, ductility, and resistance to corrosion. These unique properties make it an invaluable material for various industrial applications. Where is Platinum Found? While platinum is relatively scarce, it is not as rare as some other precious metals. The majority of the world's platinum supply comes from two main sources: primary production and recycling. South Africa is the leading producer of platinum, contributing significantly to the global supply. Russia, Zimbabwe, and Canada also have substantial platinum deposits. Platinum is often found alongside other minerals, such as nickel and copper, in ore deposits known as platinum group elements (PGE). Extracting platinum from these ores involves complex processes that require advanced mining and refining technologies. Why Would You Want Platinum? Jewelry and Luxury Goods: Platinum's brilliant white sheen and resistance to tarnish make it a popular choice for crafting high-end jewelry. Platinum jewelry is not only exquisite but also durable, making it an ideal choice for engagement rings, wedding bands, and other fine accessories. Catalytic Converters: The automotive industry extensively uses platinum in catalytic converters, where it plays a crucial role in reducing harmful emissions from vehicles. Its catalytic properties make it an essential component in promoting cleaner air and environmental sustainability. Electronics and Industry: Platinum is a key player in various industrial applications, including electronics, due to its excellent conductivity and resistance to corrosion. It is used in the production of electrical contacts, laboratory equipment, and in the manufacturing of glass. Investment and Financial Markets: Platinum, like gold and silver, is considered a precious metal and is actively traded in financial markets. Some investors choose to include platinum in their portfolios as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties. Platinum mining is a challenging and complex process. Extracting platinum from the Earth involves several intricate steps, and the scarcity of platinum deposits adds to the difficulty of mining this precious metal. Here is an overview of the key challenges associated with platinum mining: Ore Extraction: Platinum is often found in combination with other metals, forming platinum group elements (PGE) deposits. Extracting platinum from these ores requires advanced mining techniques. The ores are typically low in concentration, making the extraction process more intricate than that of more abundant metals. Depth of Deposits: Many platinum deposits are located deep underground, which adds to the complexity and cost of mining. Deep-level mining requires specialized equipment and poses safety challenges for miners. In some cases, mines may extend kilometers below the Earth's surface. Energy Intensity: The extraction and refining of platinum involve energy-intensive processes. The high temperatures required for smelting and refining contribute to the overall energy consumption of platinum mining operations. Environmental Impact: Mining operations, especially in ecologically sensitive areas, can have significant environmental impacts. Platinum mining may result in habitat disruption, soil erosion, and water pollution. Sustainable mining practices and environmental regulations are essential to mitigate these effects. Labor Intensity: Mining platinum is a labor-intensive process that requires skilled workers. The complexity of the operations, coupled with safety considerations in deep-level mining, makes it essential to have trained personnel. Market Volatility: The platinum market is subject to price fluctuations, influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical events. This volatility can impact the profitability of mining operations and investment decisions in the platinum industry. Technological Challenges: The extraction and processing of platinum ores require advanced technologies. Developing and implementing efficient and environmentally responsible mining technologies is an ongoing challenge for the industry. Despite these challenges, the demand for platinum in various industries, such as jewelry, automotive, and electronics, continues to drive the exploration and extraction of new platinum sources. Innovations in mining technologies and sustainable practices are being explored to address the difficulties associated with platinum mining and ensure its responsible and ethical extraction. THE TECHNICALS Sharp downtrend, weak, although down, it is a support trend. Two strong (one stronger than the other) support trends, IF UNDER, THEN BUY is probably the rule for those. It looks like there is some downside to come, which has been showing. The ideal price targets are thicker, and basically mean, under perfect conditions, I'd exit and enter at these levels, however, nothing is ever perfect. AS far as what the technicals say for price, I'd say there is a good chance it can maintain $800, however, there is a possible dip showing, which takes price down to $700. Again, these are both under or at major trends, and we can say that if price gets to these levels, I have a better than average chance at profit. AND if I'm wrong, I'm backed up by multiple support lines, which means less time in the red. Other scenario is where the bullish momentum keeps moving up at we head up to 1200 or so before hitting that huge dip. However, I tend to see this as the less likely option. RSI is showing the dip, along with various other indicators as coming in the short term and being backed up with support and buying in the longer term, this doesn't include a black swan event, which would theoretically take the price way down, and rocket to all time highs, as platinum will likely hold value. Good luck!! Personal opinion, I'm bullish long term from a fundamental side and technical side.
TVC:PLATINUMEducation
by nicktussing77