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Copper

Gold - The Tea Leaves Say: More Downside On Deck3.5% is a lot in gold, and that's about the range of the total landslide we've been through the entirety of August so far. It's the kind of pattern where goldbugs and USD collapse narrative nerds go long and go long or hodl and hodl but the price never goes up. In my last call on gold from the beginning of July, I warned that $2,000 was a death trap. That call was pretty successful, coming just a few dollars shy of the target, abeit it was because the next month's futures contract settled some 2% higher. Gold - $2,000 Is a Death Trap And with the index markets at large, I caution that Nasdaq not breaking 15,000 is actually a real bull trap QQQ - Is It Rally Time? Or Are You Too Early? With gold, geopolitical risks are heightened because Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party he has yet to throw away bought a lot of gold, and at relatively high prices, according to media reports at least. And thus, because of this, a form of subtle on-the-low economic sanctions against Xi and/or the CCP can be to devalue the price of gold, which puts the central bank in a bind. And this is a real problem for China right now with all the other economic catastrophes that land one after another, and the flooding, and the instability, and the posturing of the International Rules Based Order about war/invasion via Taiwan. The CCP won't invade Taiwan. But China might get invaded by the IRBO via Taiwan. You might not believe it. But give it some sober thought. Tacticians are tacticians for a reason. Hitting from the shadows and blind spots is a real useful thing. But for Xi, he can always weaponize the 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa that was launched on July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin against the entire world. Because the whole world has been going to Shanghai to train under the Jiang faction for economic and social benefits. Which means a lot of closet skeletons. Which means a lot of data dumps can serve as weapons delivered to international media in the future. Anyways, here's the call, friends. Gold is obviously going down and will go down farther. It really looks like it's seeking at least the short term lows, which means $1,900 is longzo-gonzo. And so on a dump from where we're at at time of posting to, say $1,850, you're getting 5% on a very safe short. You can short the hole. And 5% is a lot of money on gold. Probably only at $1,850 can we look for reversal longs towards new all time highs. But with how lethargic gold has been, we may very well just have seen the top on the re-run to $2,080.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LordWrymouth
2
Why Silver stands out.In the ever-evolving landscape of global economics, precious metals like silver, often serve as key indicators and safe havens. This week, we'll explore the factors making silver an interesting prospect in today's market. Current Macroeconomic Indicators: The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a slight increase in the US for July, registering at 3.2%, up from the previous month's 3%. Predictive models from the Reserve Bank of Cleveland suggest an impending rise for the August CPI. Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model projects a rise in GDP figures. Silver, Inflation & GDP: The above becomes important when historical data reveals that significant spikes in silver prices often follow periods of simultaneous rises in GDP and inflation. Notably, in years that saw increases in both indicators, silver recorded gains of 38% and 46% in 2009 and 2020, respectively. Conversely, 2002 saw a modest 2% return. Silver vs. Gold: A measure of relative value between the two major precious metals via the ratio of Silver to Gold, further substantiates the idea of a potential strength in Silver. The ratio is trading just off a trend support-turned-resistance and at the upper end of the symmetrical triangle. Resistance here can play out in the format of silver strengthening relative to gold. Yields and Silver: The longstanding inverted relationship of yield and silver can be observed in the chart, but the ratio provides some insights into the limits of this relationship. What’s immediately obvious to us post 2008 there has been a regime change in this relationship as yield grinded lower and silver remains elevated. With no immediate large catalyst on the horizon, it is likely the current regime will hold and hence, the ‘floor’ in this relationship is near. Meaning relative to current levels of yield, Silver is trading on the lower side. Equities vs ‘real’ economy: Beyond being a precious metal, silver's industrial applications—from automotive to solar panels and electronics manufacturing—make it a bellwether for the 'real' economy, akin to copper. Comparing the Nasdaq 100 against industrial metals illustrates a disparity between equities and the 'real' economy, positioning silver as significantly undervalued relative to peers like copper and gold. Positioning: Current market positions, particularly among net Non-Commercials, seem to favor silver with a growing bullish sentiment. Technical Analysis: A noteworthy observation is the persistence of the 22.5 level as a pivotal support and resistance mark for silver, a trend tracing back to the 80s. Prices currently thread above this level and remain supported by an uptrend that began in August 2022. Additionally, RSI points to oversold, and in the past 4 instances when RSI reached such levels, prices quickly rebounded thereafter. Against the above factors, we see support for Silver, on multiple fronts, such as economic cycle, relative value against equities, and underpriced when compared against gold. Hence, to express our view on Silver, we can set up a long position on the Silver Futures at the current level of 22.67 with a stop at 21.8 and take profit at 25.10 . Silver prices are quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per troy ounce and each 0.005 move is equal to 25 Dollars. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.atlantafed.org www.clevelandfed.org
COMEX:SI1!Long
by inspirante
TMC Offers Massive Upside Mining the Seafloor The weaker dollar has led to prices for commodities climbing sharply and quality mining stocks generating substantial gains. This has occurred in the face of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the fastest pace in history. Rising rates normally strengthen the dollar and we did see a USD rally in the first half of 2022 when the Fed began raising rates. But that rally fizzled and the dollar took a sharp turn lower in September of 2022, even with the Fed continuing to raise rates, doubling the Fed Funds rate from 2.5% to over 5%. This can be explained by the markets being forward-looking and anticipating an end to rate hikes on the horizon. But this is also partially due to inflation remaining stubbornly high with no signs of fiscal responsibility from the current administration. And now that most of the rate hikes are behind us and we are at or near a terminal Fed Funds rate, we think the dollar decline will accelerate, which will translate into significantly higher commodity prices. TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California. It primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. This company is interesting because they are the first publicly-traded company to attempt mining valuable metals from the sea floor. They claim to be developing the world’s largest estimated source of battery metals, with enough nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese to electrify the entire U.S. passenger vehicle fleet. They estimate massive In situ quantities of nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese with a total resource of 15,700,000 t Ni / 2,400,000 t Co / 13,300,000 t Cu / 350,000,000 t Mn. Some nickel projects have high grade, some have a large resource, but TMC is an outlier among peers with the largest NiEq resource and highest NiEq grade. The company estimates an NPV of over $10 billion at current nickel prices, based on just 22% of the NORI-D resource. Yet the company is trading at a market cap of around $300 million. This is a multiple of 10x to 20x less than their land-based peers, implying huge upside should they be successful obtaining permits and moving into production. In just the past week, TMC said it plans to apply next year for a license to start mining in the Pacific Ocean, with production expected to start as early as late 2025. The company has signed non-binding MoU with Pacific Metals Company (PAMCO) of Japan to evaluate the processing of 1.3 million tonnes per year of wet nodules But environmental campaigners say seabed mining could have a catastrophic impact on marine ecosystems, so it is still unclear if they will get the license needed to start mining. There are also questions around the costs to pull these nodules up from deep locations on the seafloor. TMC is an interesting speculative mining play. Management believes it has rights to the globe’s largest undeveloped Nickel project. Nickel is one of the most widely used minerals for EV batteries and will see increased demand in the years ahead. A supply gap is likely to push prices for nickel much higher in the years ahead, potentially increasing the value of TMC as well. Much will hinge on getting final regulations from the International Seabed Authority, which seems to be in no hurry. But if this happens and TMC gets permits, I think this stock is going to be 5x to 10x for investors buying shares ahead of the news. The share price spiked higher on increased media coverage lately, but dropped back just as fast. I recommend this balanced article from CNBC for continued reading on TMC. The price went from 65 cents to $3.00, before falling back to $1.10 currently. Everyone will have to decide for themself if this is a good opportunity to buy the pullback or simply catching a falling knife. A small allocation as a lottery ticket could be of interest for risk-tolerant investors.
NASDAQ:TMCLong
by jhamlin24
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 1/08US and European markets saw a relatively tame session to end the month. Major indexes remain buoyant and edge higher even as the USD gains and US Bond yields hold around long term highs. While traders focus on the end of a global interest rate rising cycle, share markets remain risk on. For me, the technical view remains positive for now with focus today on the RBA rate statement today in our local market and then it will shift to the US Key employment data at the end of the week. Expecting a stronger open in Asia with the ASX200 to open up 25 pts, the Nikkei to open flat and Hang Seng to open up 210 pts. Traders will be keeping an eye on coming employment data and rate Statements from the RBA today and BOE later in the week, for an updated outlook for Global interest rates and inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
COPPER Two year Triangle may finally break.Copper (XCUUSD) is trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 07 2022 High. The price is currently above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), supported twice by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI shows that we may be replicating the July 15 - September 20 2022 fractal. If the price breaks above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle, then based on the fractal should target initially the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level at 4.1800. As long as it closes below the Lower Highs, we will sell and target the 3.6870 Support. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!
by TradingShot
1
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 26/07US and European markets continue the grind higher as focus remains on coming earnings from big Tech in the US. Overall, major indexes are extended so I feel that it will not take much to prompt investors to unwind and take some profits. In saying that, the trend remains up in the near term so there is no reason to close positions at the moment. The USD has been pushing higher while Gold is under pressure and Copper rallies. The previous few sessions US bond yields have been moving up ahead of FOMC statement due out tomorrow night where rates are expecting to be lifted. Expecting a mixed open in Asia with the ASX200 to open up 20 pts, the Nikkei to open flat and Hang Seng to open down 100 pts. Traders will be keeping an eye on inflationary data (AUS CPI out today) and US Rate Statement from the Feds, for signs that inflation is still easing. Whether that translates into lessening pressure on the wallet and the cost of living, I expect will take some time to play out. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper ** If you like the content then take a look at my WEBSITE in the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material ** ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. **
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Copper - (continued) SHORT; for now ...I fail to grasp the general consensus where the overall impression seems to be that "bad technicals" but "a very pretty fundamental picture"? LME stocks jumped +45% just since January alone! - How is that a "good" fundamental picture? (I must be missing something, especially with China not coming back, in any way resembling past demand.) Long(er) term, one could make a case, perhaps, but only by disregarding the hole that the decline of Chinese demand will poke into global fundamentals. On the other hand, Copper/Gold ratio looks rather bullish. Here is a close-up; As for the Copper/Gold Ratio; That is definitely what bullish looks like! Stay SHORT for now (... and then make a lot of money trading it from under 3.50 ;-)
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
2
Copper Conundrum: Diverging Indicators Point to More DownsideThe last time we looked at copper was last October, and the trade played out nicely in our favor. Much has happened since then and we think another opportunity lies on the horizon now. Revisiting the same analysis now we observe the following… China, being the largest copper buyer, its currency pair CNHUSD traditionally shares a high correlation with copper. However, a divergence has emerged since May 2023. Moreover, copper's wide usage in manufacturing - from batteries to appliances and industrial machinery - makes China's import and export figures a good indicator of global economic health. These figures currently paint a gloomy picture, with YOY Exports & Imports pointing lower. Again, we notice a divergence between copper prices and these economic numbers. The Gold/Copper ratio, usually confined within a certain range, has recently tried to break higher. Despite facing resistance, the movement may still have momentum. Previous breaks upward have proven to be quite rapid. One way this could play out is if copper trades lower, the Gold/Copper ratio tends to trend higher. From a price action perspective, copper seems to be breaking out from a seven-month bull flag, inching towards the 4.00 price level. However, the significant resistance at 4.00 casts doubts on the breakout's success. Further fuelling this doubt is the emergence of a Simple Moving Average (SMA) death cross on the daily timeframe. On a shorter timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests slight overselling, while the overall price structure is encapsulated in a symmetrical triangle. Summing up, we foresee short-term downside for copper due to diverging macro factors from copper’s price and a downward trend in the dollar. Moreover, price action suggests overbought levels and looming resistance. CME has the Full-sized Copper Contract or the Micro Copper Futures which we can use to express this view, taking a short position at the current level of 3.904, stop loss at 4.10 and take profit at 3.55 the next level of support and subsequently 3.30 if the symmetrical triangle breakout happens. Each $0.0005 price move in copper per pound is equal to $1.25 for the micro copper futures and $12.50 for the full-sized copper futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:HG1!Short
by inspirante
Nikkei break out? - China's JapanificationThe recent Nikkei rally is bringing it ever closer to that "magical" 30,000 level which it hasn't touched since the late '80s collapse. IFF a breakout occurs, expect a collapse in all XYZ/JPY pairs - since, true to form, every equity/hedge fund in the world is expected to pile in. Internal Chinese (export/import) numbers are showing a fair pick up in exports - post Covid - BUT a very anemic internal demand, with import numbers steadily surprising to the down-side (by a lot!). Simultaneously Japanese heavy industry is racking up some solid numbers lately, especially in regard to steel, automobile and electronic components. All of this is fueled by an abating chip shortage, giving world wide car production a boost. E.g. Watch the Nikkei price action and fully expect a blinding YEN rally should that 30,000 level get blown away!
OSE:NK2251!Long
by Nemo_Confidat