Copperlong
Bullish on Copper - But feel best to wait a bit yet for EntryI think it's just about time to buy copper again, in fact I was flipped the buy signal back on April 24th. However, I am sitting on the sidelines, mainly because I want to see the RSI get back over 50 before jumping back in. Once the RSI can get back above 50 (if it does within the next few trading sessions) I'll be going long copper :)
Fundamentally, Copper should rise from here - but there are a few potential snags that could still weigh heavy on her.
Neutral on Copper for right now - but ready to get long: I am neutral on copper for right this second, but I am getting ready to get long on copper in the next few trading sessions. It looks like she wants to break off the 9 day MA and the Aussie Dollar is showing some strength (just went long AUDJPY) and this suggests perhaps copper will be getting ready to make a comeback. Since contracts expired yesterday it does look like buyers want to get back in the game. I am essentially waiting for a clear break / crossover of the MACD for confirmation.
When I do go long, I will be setting SL for 2.4000
Copper - Bullish PotentialCopper is currently consolidating inside wave B of a corrective wave, which follows the bearish impulse which began in 2011. We expect copper to resume its bullish movement and complete wave C of this cycle over the new few months. The previous bounce off the .786 retracement prints a likely low in the market, and the correction since that time has proceeded exactly as we would expect if this is a low.
There exists support in a demand zone at the .618 retracement line, upon which the market is currently skipping and rejecting bearish movement.
Buy the breakout !2017 seem to be the year of commodities comeback with the economy growth and inflation showing signs of returning and Trump protectionism speech seem set to stop USD strength. History has a clear view on soft interventions like this and they usually point down for USD (1987 plaza accord comes to mind). Furthermore, EM would benefit greatly of a weaker USD and China cutting oversupply in coal (up more than 130% in 2016) and now seem to follow through on copper consumption and cutting aluminum oversupply. This all also holds promising signs for gold the leader of the commodity space. Having said that "doctor copper" is the life pulse on the economy. If half what we are hearing about infrastructure projects etc. commodities and specifically copper are set to be a winner in 2017. Technically 50/200 moving average have already decided on top price action. It says up. Confirmed by rounding bottom and the decisive breaking of a downwards trend. Entry point somewhat tricky - sitting at 2.75 resistance could fall as far as 2.50. Binomial option in place in other words - providing two scenarios - buy dip (2.50) or buy breakout of 2.75 - whichever comes first in other words.
Copper to make new highs?The current structure hints a conclusion of a wave C downtrend to a prior impulse ended @ 2.2770 marking a wave 5. A new impulse substructure has broken the wave iv on C indicative of an uptrend onset. however, if any failure the impulse fails to swing an uptrend wave C ending should serve as a protective stop as well as a new entry point.
Bullish in copperCopper is in an uptrend in the 4h/daily chart and is very close to the lower trendline of the channel. It has started moving up. The lower trendline and 61% retracement can act as very good support levels. With those as the SL, this seems a high probability long setup. Target would the 100% FE of the previous impulse up.