COPPER ANALYSIS 1WIn my opinion, copper will move like this for the coming months and years until 2026
Copperusd
XCUUSD ( COPPER / USD ) Commodities Analysis 10/01/2023Fundamental Analysis:
china is the biggest copper consumer and as of now we can see the most of its manufacturing plants and factories are getting shut due to Protests and ongoing havoc in the country.
DXY is very bullish which can go up to 130 and ultimately will result in the more price fall in the commodity sections.
World economic Crisis and Supply chain Disturbance which will lead to the Manufacturing Halt.
Technical Analysis:
Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD,
Hidden Bearish Divergence Formation in the process which is a very strong Bearish Trend continuation sign.
Nest Resistance and Potential Pivot Point 9500$
lower Support at 8450%
Bearish Targets: 5800$, 5250$, 4300$
Copper to $10+ by 2024. Easy. ~$4.50 today is fundamentally not the same as ~$4.50 in 2011 - the last time copper traded at these prices. QE was fresh off the block in 2011. today, it is standard operating procedure and although the fed talks a good game with tapering, we have yet to see any balance sheet reduction.
Looking at this monthly chart, I noticed an interesting double bottom that hits its' target before entering price discovery between 1999-2006. the pattern is not perfect but it looks really similar to copper 2016-2022. Double bottom, target reached around $4.30, and now we're off to the races - price discovery.
I think copper to $10 in under 2 years is a very safe bet. It doesn't threaten fiat as much as gold/silver and is manipulated less as a result. It is critical in many industries and the push for everything to go IoT will continue the increasing pressure on copper as well.
Let's see how this one ages.
Copper Long SetupCopper Long Setup
Entry: $3.4989
TP & RR: $3.6094 (3.47)
Stop Loss: $3.4671
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Opening a long order at a support level. As simple as that. The Stop Loss is set below the previous low and the Take Profit is at the lower trendline from the triangle that we broke down from. The market Flow indicator is printing a divergence on the 4h chart, so I believe the price should start trending up. I will be quick to trial the stop loss if the price indeed goes up. This is one of those trades that can go wrong very quickly and I don't want to give up profits.
Copper (HG): Strong long term Buy Signal.Copper is on a three day bullish streak since the February 3rd rebound near the 2.4800 Support. The 4H chart has already turned bullish (RSI = 54.648, ADX = 36.919, ADX = 36.919) but 1D is still bearish (RSI = 34.595, MACD = -0.070, ADX = 52.434, Highs/Lows = -0.0336) so the risk remains.
That risk is concentrated on the 1D MA200. As you see the MA200 on the 1D chart has acted as Resistance on previous occasions especially on the first rebound attempt after the last -13% fall in May 2019. If the price is rejected again (especially if a Double Top is made), then we expect a new rejection. On a different occasion (MA200 break out) we expect a new rally towards at least the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance (which is our Target).
There are numerous reasons that give more probabilities for a bullish break-out:
* The 1D RSI has bounced on a monthly Support level, which was last hit in July 2018. What followed last time the RSI hit 19.500 on 1D was a strong rally towards the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance, which is our Target.
* The current rebound is practically a Double Bottom as it was made near the 2.4800 Low of September 3rd, 2019.
* Last time Copper made a Double Bottom was on January 3rd 2019. The result was a bullish rally even higher than the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance.
Previous successful Buy Signal on Copper made last August:
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Copper: Complete Trading Plan | H&S vs Channel UpCopper (XCUUSD) has been trading inside a 1W Channel Up (RSI = 59.467, MACD = 0.018, ADX = 36.505, Highs/Lows = 0.0586) which touched the Higher High trend line at the end of December. Right now the price is pulling back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend line) to price a Higher Low.
As long as 2.8500 holds, which is the 1M Symmetrical Resistance, then the Channel Up will most likely price that Higher Low just below the 1D MA50 at 2.7000. With Copper trading on a Head and Shoulders since July 2018, if the Channel Up Higher Low trend line breaks, there are greater chances to re-test the neckline's Support within 2.5500 - 2.5270.
On the other hand, if the 2.8500 Symmetrical Resistance breaks, then that long term Head and Shoulders pattern gets invalidated and we will focus purely on the 1D Channel Up which should set eyes on the 2.9900 Resistance of the Head. In that case (if 2.8500 breaks) we will be switching to a buy with 2.9500 as the Target.
*Note at this point that the (otherwise bullish) Golden Cross formation on the 1D chart has been a bearish signal on the last 2 occasions for Copper since June 2018. On December 27th, 2019 we just formed a new Golden Cross.
See how the Head and Shoulders has provided an excellent buy signal last August:
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