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CORN

Shady CORN Scheme: Bullish Plot or Market Trap?🌟 Ultimate CORN Heist Strategy: Swing Trade Plan 🌟 Greetings, Wealth Chasers & Market Mavericks! 🤑💸 Ready to pull off a legendary heist in the 🌽 CORN Commodities CFD Market? Our Thief Trading Style blends sharp technicals and fundamentals to craft a high-octane plan for massive gains. Follow the strategy below, stick to the chart, and aim to cash out near the high-risk Red Resistance Zone—an electrified level where overbought conditions, consolidation, or trend reversals could spark traps from bearish bandits. Let’s lock in profits and treat ourselves to the spoils! 💪🎉 📈 Entry Plan: Launch the Heist! 🚀 Wait for a breakout above the Moving Average at 4.5800 to ignite your long entry—bullish riches are calling! Option 1: Set Buy Stop Orders just above the MA for breakout confirmation. Option 2: Place Buy Limit Orders on a pullback to the most recent swing low/high within a 15- or 30-minute timeframe. 📢 Pro Tip: Set an alert on your chart to catch the breakout in real-time! ⏰ 🛑 Stop Loss: Protect Your Loot! 🔒 For Buy Stop Orders, place your Stop Loss after the breakout confirms to avoid premature exits. Thief SL Recommendation: Set at the recent swing low on the 4H timeframe (4.4300) for day/swing trades. Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and number of open orders—play it smart! ⚠️ Feeling rebellious? Set your SL wherever you dare, but don’t blame us if the market bites back! 😎🔥 🎯 Target: Grab the Gold! 🏴‍☠️ Aim for 4.8000—take partial profits or exit fully before hitting this level. Scalpers: Stick to long-side scalps. Got deep pockets? Jump in now. Otherwise, join swing traders for the full heist. Use a trailing Stop Loss to lock in gains and keep your money safe. 💰 🌽 CORN Market Outlook: Why This Heist Works 🌟 The CORN CFD market is currently neutral but shows strong bullish potential, driven by: 📰 Fundamentals: Check macroeconomic data, COT reports, geopolitical events, and news sentiment for a full picture. 📊 Intermarket & Seasonal Analysis: Aligns with favorable positioning and future trend targets. ⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Position Management 🚨 Avoid new trades during major news releases to dodge volatility spikes. Use trailing Stop Loss orders to secure profits and protect open positions. Stay updated via reliable sources like Investing.com for real-time news impacting CORN prices. 💥 Boost the Heist! 🚀 Support our Thief Trading Style by hitting the Boost Button to amplify our robbery squad’s strength! 💪 Together, we’ll swipe profits effortlessly every day. Stay tuned for the next heist plan—more riches await! 🤑🐱‍👤 Let’s make this CORN heist legendary! 🌽💸🎉
PEPPERSTONE:CORNLong
by Thief_Trader
The Golden Grain: Trading Corn in Global Markets🟡 1. Introduction Corn isn’t just something you eat off the cob at a summer barbecue — it’s one of the most widely traded agricultural commodities in the world. Behind every kernel lies a powerful story of food security, global trade, biofuels, and speculative capital. Whether you’re a farmer managing risk, a trader chasing macro trends, or simply curious about how weather affects global prices, corn futures sit at the crossroads of agriculture and finance. In this article, we’ll explore what makes corn a global economic driver, how it behaves as a futures product, and what traders need to know to approach the corn market intelligently. 🌎 2. Where Corn Grows: Global Powerhouses Corn is cultivated on every continent except Antarctica, but a handful of countries dominate production and exports. United States – By far the largest producer and exporter. The “Corn Belt” — spanning Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, and parts of Ohio and Missouri — produces the majority of U.S. corn. U.S. exports also set global benchmarks for pricing. Brazil & Argentina – These two South American powerhouses are crucial to the global corn supply, especially during the Northern Hemisphere’s off-season. China – Though a top producer, China consumes most of its own supply and has become a key importer during deficit years. Corn is typically planted in the U.S. between late April and early June and harvested from September through November. In Brazil, two crops per year are common — including the important safrinha (second crop), harvested mid-year. Understanding where and when corn is grown is vital. Weather disruptions in any of these regions can ripple through the futures market within hours — or even minutes. 💹 3. Corn as a Futures Market Power Player Corn is one of the most liquid agricultural futures markets in the world, traded primarily on the CME Group’s CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade). It attracts a diverse set of participants: Producers and Commercials: Farmers, ethanol refiners, and food manufacturers use corn futures to hedge price risk. Speculators and Funds: Hedge funds and retail traders speculate on corn price direction, volatility, and seasonal patterns. Arbitrageurs and Spreads: Traders bet on relative price differences between contracts (e.g., old crop vs. new crop spreads). The deep liquidity and relatively low tick size make corn accessible, but its price is highly sensitive to weather, government reports (like WASDE), and international trade policies. 🏗️ 4. CME Group Corn Futures: What You Can Trade The CME Group offers both standard and micro-sized contracts for corn. Here’s a quick overview: o Standard Corn Ticker: ZC Size = 5,000 bushels Tick = 0.0025 = $12.50 Margin = ~$1,050 o Micro Corn Ticker: XC Size = 1,000 bushels Tick = 0.0050 = $2.50 Margin = ~$105 ⚠️ Always confirm margin requirements with your broker. They change with market volatility and exchange updates. The availability of micro corn contracts has opened the door for smaller traders to manage risk or test strategies without over-leveraging. 📊 5. Historical Price Behavior & Seasonality Corn is deeply seasonal — and so is its price action. During planting season (April–May), traders watch weekly USDA crop progress reports and early weather forecasts like hawks. A wet spring can delay planting, leading to tighter supply expectations and early price spikes. Then comes pollination (July) — the most critical stage. This is when heatwaves or drought can do serious damage to yield potential. If temperatures are unusually high or rainfall is scarce during this window, markets often react with urgency, bidding up futures prices in anticipation of reduced output. By harvest (September–November), prices often stabilize — especially if production matches expectations. But early frost, wind storms, or excessive rain during harvest can still trigger sharp volatility. Many experienced traders overlay weather models, soil moisture maps, and historical USDA data to anticipate season-driven price shifts. Even international factors play a role. For example, when Brazil’s safrinha crop suffers a drought, global corn supply tightens — impacting CME prices even though the crop is thousands of miles away. 🧠 6. What Every New Trader Should Know If you’re new to corn trading, here are some key principles: Watch the Weather: It’s not optional. Daily forecasts, drought monitors, and precipitation anomalies can move markets. NOAA, Open-Meteo, and private ag weather services are your friends. Know the Reports: The WASDE report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), USDA Crop Progress, and Prospective Plantings reports can shake up pricing more than you might expect — even if changes seem small. Mind the Time of Year: Seasonality affects liquidity, volatility, and trader behavior. March–August tends to be the most active period. Understand Global Demand: The U.S. exports a huge portion of its crop — with China, Mexico, and Japan as major buyers. A tariff tweak or surprise Chinese cancellation can cause wild price swings. 🛠️ Good corn trading is 50% strategy, 50% meteorology. 🧭 This article is part of a broader educational series exploring the relationship between agricultural commodities and weather patterns. In the upcoming pieces, we’ll dive deeper into how temperature and precipitation affect corn, wheat, and soybeans — with real data, charts, and trading insights. 📅 Watch for the next release: “Breadbasket Basics: Trading Wheat Futures.” When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
Front-loaded Exports has fuelled rally in Corn. Can it last?After President Trump instituted broad new tariffs on 2nd April 2025, corn futures initially wavered but then rallied sharply. While this may seem counterintuitive given tariffs' disruptive impact on trade, near-term support for corn comes from front-loaded U.S. exports, a weaker dollar, and lower-than-expected domestic supply. However, prices are likely to face downward pressure as the U.S. harvest season approaches. This paper examines the short-term bullish factors, outlines the potential risks ahead, and presents a hypothetical trade setup involving a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures. CME Corn futures gapped lower on 3rd April but quickly recovered, jumping 4.5% over the next three trading days to six-week highs by 9th April. This move aligns with the typical spring seasonal trend, as corn often firms in late spring during planting & strong demand season. Surging Export Commitments Amid Tariffs Export commitments have surged post-tariff announcement. USDA reports that U.S. exporters had already booked about 85% of the 2024/25 season target by early April, according to Reuters , well above the 5‐year average. In the week ending 3rd April, net U.S. corn sales hit ~40.2 million bushels, reflecting heavy front-loading. Large private sales continue: for example, in early April exporters announced a 9.4-million-bushel sale of 2024/25 corn to Spain. These front-loaded sales (especially to Mexico & Europe) suggest buyers are rushing to secure supply before possible trade disruptions. Overall, extraordinarily strong export pace and large “flash” sales are underpinning the market. Supply is Weaker than Initially Thought USDA’s April WASDE cut U.S. 2024/25 ending stocks to just 1.465 billion bushels – a 75 million bushels reduction – implying a stocks/use ratio around 9.6%. For context, that ratio is near multi-decade lows for corn. The USDA simultaneously raised exports to 2.55 billion bushels, a full 100 million bushels above the previous estimate. On the supply side, USDA’s Prospective Plantings (March 2025) projected 95.3 million corn acres for 2025, roughly 5% higher than 2024, above expectations (highlighted by Mint Finance in a previous paper ). This suggests that while near-term stocks remain stressed the situation is likely to improve drastically following the harvest. Weaker Dollar Supports Increased Corn Exports A key bullish factor for U.S. corn exports is the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar. After the tariff announcement, the trade-weighted dollar tumbled – hitting fresh lows (e.g. a 10-year low versus the Swiss franc). Through April 10, the dollar was down ~2–3% on the week. A weaker dollar makes U.S. corn cheaper for overseas buyers, supporting export competitiveness. With dollar at multi-year lows, U.S. corn is more attractive globally, partly offsetting any Chinese retaliatory tariffs. COT and Options Data Managed-money funds have dramatically pared back their long corn bets since the beginning of March. CFTC COT data show net long positions peaking around 364,000 contracts in early February, then plunging to ~54,000 by the 8th April report. However, the pace of decline has slowed dramatically over the past few weeks and seems to be signalling an end of the cutback by asset managers. Interestingly, despite the tariff introduction (2/April) and the WASDE release (10/April), implied volatility (IV) moderated. IV has since normalized from the spike observed in March. During this period, skew also declined, reaching a negative value on 8th April - indicating that put options briefly became more expensive than calls. Although this trend has since reversed, skew remains near its lowest levels in 2025, suggesting sustained interest in put options among market participants. Source: CME CVOL OI shift over the past week also signals a cautious tone despite the rally. Near term options have seen an increase in put OI, suggesting participants remain cautious despite the rally. Source: CME QuikStrike Hypothetical Trade Setup While bullish factors have driven a sharp rally in corn prices over the past two weeks, there are dark clouds on the horizon. Tariffs risk disrupting trade and as most importers have already loaded up on US corn, they could slow the pace of future purchases. Additionally, a downbeat seasonal trend along with an expected bumper harvest signal that prices could reverse sharply from here. On the technical front, momentum remains solidly bullish but approaching a potential overbought level amid a slowing bullish trend. Corn prices remain pressured from a bumper harvest expected in September. Along with expected trade disruptions and a slowdown in the pace of US exports, prices are likely to decline during the summer. Regardless, prices remain bullish in the near term from a weakening dollar and near-term front loading. To express views on these converging trends, investors can deploy a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures consisting of a long position on the near-term May contract (MZCK2025) and a short position on the September contract (MZCU2025). A hypothetical trade setup providing a reward to risk ratio of 1.8x is mentioned below: A calendar spread on CME Micro Corn Futures is highly capital efficient with the above trade requiring maintenance margin of just USD 23 as of 15/April. The position remains protected from near-term price increase but benefits from the eventual price decline in September during harvest season. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:MZC1!
by mintdotfinance
2
Inflation Leading Indicator Data with Agricultural Commodities Inflation leading indicator data is not derived solely from CPI numbers; more importantly, we must consider what drives these CPI numbers. By understanding this, we can stay ahead of the mass market. Looking at past trends, we can observe that CPI numbers and agricultural commodities tend to move in tandem. In this discussion, we will explore why agricultural commodities are an effective tool for projecting inflation direction and examine where these commodities may be heading. Micro Agriculture Futures: . Corn: MZC . Wheat: MZW . Soybean: MZS . Soybean Oil: MZL . Soybean Meal: MZM Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
4
What Lies Beyond the Cornfield's Horizon?The narrative of corn in the global agricultural scene is not merely about sustenance but a complex ballet of economics, innovation, and policy. This staple crop stands at the intersection of international trade, with U.S. farmers gaining a foothold in Mexico's market through a significant legal victory against GMO corn restrictions, highlighting the nuanced dance between technology and trade agreements. Meanwhile, Brazil's agricultural strategies reveal a shift towards leveraging corn for ethanol, showcasing a potential future where corn could play an even more pivotal role in sustainable energy solutions. In science and technology, the development of digital corn twins presents a frontier in crop breeding. This innovative approach could redefine how we think about plant resilience and efficiency, potentially leading to crops tailored to withstand the capricious whims of climate change. The challenge lies in translating theoretical models into practical, field-ready solutions that can benefit farmers and consumers alike. However, the journey isn't without its threats. The unexpected rise of corn leaf aphids in 2024 serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing battle with nature's unpredictability. Farmers are now challenged to anticipate and manage these pests, pushing the boundaries of traditional farming practices into more predictive, data-driven methodologies. This situation beckons a broader inquiry into how agriculture can evolve not just to react but preemptively adapt to ecological shifts. As we look beyond the cornfield's horizon, we see a landscape where policy, technology, and biology converge. The future of corn involves navigating this triad with foresight, ensuring that each step taken today not only secures current yields but also plants the seeds for a sustainable agricultural legacy. This exploration into corn's evolving role invites us to ponder how we can harness these developments for a future where food security and environmental stewardship walk hand in hand.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by UDIS_View
Behind the Curtain: Economic Indicators Shaping Corn Futures1: Introduction Corn Futures (ZC), traded on the CME, play a vital role in global markets, particularly in the agriculture and food industries. As a commodity with widespread applications, Corn Futures are influenced by a multitude of factors, ranging from seasonal weather patterns to broader economic trends. Understanding these influences is critical for traders seeking to navigate the market effectively. In this article, we leverage machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, to identify key economic indicators that have historically correlated with Corn Futures' price changes. By analyzing daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, we aim to provide a clearer picture of how these indicators potentially shape market behavior and offer actionable insights for traders. The findings are presented through visual graphs highlighting the top economic indicators across different timeframes. These insights can help traders fine-tune their strategies, whether for short-term speculation or long-term investment. 2: Understanding the Key Economic Indicators Economic indicators provide a glimpse into various facets of the economy, influencing commodity markets such as Corn Futures. Using the Random Forest model, the following indicators emerged as significant for Corn Futures on different timeframes: Daily Timeframe: Oil Import Price Index: Reflects the cost of importing crude oil, impacting energy costs in agriculture, such as fuel for equipment and transportation. Durable Goods Orders: Tracks demand for goods expected to last three years or more, often signaling broader economic activity that can influence commodity demand. Natural Gas Prices: Critical for the production of fertilizers, which directly impacts corn farming costs. Weekly Timeframe: China GDP Growth Rate: Indicates global demand trends, as China is a major consumer of agricultural products. Housing Starts: Reflects construction activity, indirectly influencing economic stability and consumer behavior. Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): A measure of credit risk that can signal changes in business investment and economic uncertainty. Monthly Timeframe: Retail Sales (YoY): Gauges consumer spending trends, a crucial driver of demand for corn-based products. Initial Jobless Claims: Acts as a measure of labor market health, influencing disposable income and consumption patterns. Nonfarm Productivity: Indicates economic efficiency and growth, impacting broader market trends. By understanding these indicators, traders can interpret their implications on Corn Futures more effectively. 3: How to Use This Information The timeframes for these indicators provide unique perspectives for different trading styles: Daily Traders: Indicators like the Oil Import Price Index and Natural Gas Prices, which are highly sensitive to short-term changes, are valuable for high-frequency trading strategies. Daily traders can monitor these to anticipate intraday price movements in Corn Futures. Swing Traders (Weekly): Weekly indicators, such as the China GDP Growth Rate or Housing Starts, help identify intermediate-term trends. Swing traders can align their positions with these macroeconomic signals for trades lasting several days or weeks. Long-Term Traders (Monthly): Monthly indicators, such as Retail Sales and Nonfarm Productivity, provide insights into overarching economic trends. Long-term traders can use these to assess demand-side factors impacting Corn Futures over extended periods. Additionally, traders can enhance their strategies by overlaying these indicators with seasonal patterns in Corn Futures, as weather-related supply shifts often coincide with economic factors. 4: Applications for Risk Management Understanding the relationship between economic indicators and Corn Futures also plays a critical role in risk management. Here are several ways to apply these insights: Refining Entry and Exit Points: By correlating Corn Futures with specific indicators, traders can potentially time their entries and exits more effectively. For example, a sharp rise in the Oil Import Price Index might signal increased production costs, potentially pressuring corn prices downward. Diversifying Trading Strategies: Leveraging daily, weekly, and monthly indicators allows traders to adapt their strategies across timeframes. Short-term volatility from energy prices can complement long-term stability signals from broader economic metrics like GDP Growth. Mitigating Uncertainty: Tracking indicators such as Corporate Bond Spreads can provide early warnings of economic instability, helping traders hedge their Corn Futures positions with other assets or options. Seasonal Hedging: Combining indicator-based insights with seasonal trends in Corn Futures can enhance risk-adjusted returns. For instance, aligning hedging strategies with both economic and weather-related factors could reduce downside exposure. 5: Conclusion The analysis highlights how diverse economic indicators shape Corn Futures prices across multiple timeframes. From daily volatility influenced by energy costs to long-term trends driven by consumer spending and productivity, each indicator provides unique insights into market dynamics. Traders can use this framework not only for Corn Futures but also for other commodities, enabling a more data-driven approach to trading. The combination of machine learning and economic analysis presents opportunities to refine strategies and improve outcomes in the competitive world of futures trading. Stay tuned for the next article in this series, where we delve into another futures market and its relationship with key economic indicators. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
The Fed Signals Commodity TrendThe Fed signals that the commodity trend may be moving higher. In the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed lowered rates by a quarter point. Contrary to the expectations of many analysts who anticipated more cuts in 2025, they signaled only two rate cuts next year, reflecting greater caution about the pace of further reductions in borrowing costs. So, how is this being interpreted as an indication that the commodity trend may be moving higher? Corn Futures & Options Ticker: ZC Minimum fluctuation: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:GD1!Long
by konhow
Corn Futures: New All Time Highs Ahead 10x potential CBOT:ZC1! Straight forward MACRO LONG to new ALL TIME HIGH. Easy 2x upside to previous all time high within a year and 5-10x upside within the next couple of years. There is a huge fair value gap or unbalanced zone to the upside (yellow) to be filled. The 3 month chart has finally started to show signs of reversal as price retraced to a key high volume zone (gray) and printed a bullish hammer candle. Weekly timeframe is lacking strength and looking like it wants to retest the low $400's. Rather wait for a further retrace or jump in upon a break of previous highs.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by ZelfTrade
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Corn Futures and PPI InsightsIntroduction to Corn Futures Market Sentiment Corn Futures are capturing the interest of traders as technical indicators and economic fundamentals align in a potential bullish setup. Currently, the Corn Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a Commodity Channel Index (CCI) bullish crossover, indicating a possible uptrend in prices. Corn Futures have followed suit with an earlier CCI bullish crossover, adding strength to the view that Corn prices could see upward momentum in the coming months. As Corn Futures reflect early signals of a shift in market sentiment, this article explores a straightforward yet effective Bull Call Spread strategy using June 2025 options. By leveraging these CCI signals and key resistance levels, traders could position themselves to benefit from a potential rise in Corn prices while maintaining a controlled risk profile. Corn Futures Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Understanding the specifications of Corn Futures is essential for managing both position size and margin requirements effectively. Here’s a quick breakdown: Price Tick Size: The minimum fluctuation is 0.0025 cents per bushel, equivalent to $12.50 per tick. Margin Requirement: Approximately $1,000 per contract, although this can vary based on broker and market conditions. Analysis of Key Indicators and Market Setup Two primary indicators support the bullish case for Corn Futures: the CCI bullish crossover in both the Corn Futures and the Corn PPI. The CCI, a momentum-based indicator, identifies potential trend reversals by highlighting overbought and oversold conditions. The recent CCI bullish crossover in Corn Futures suggests early buying pressure, while the subsequent crossover in the Corn PPI confirms this trend on the economic front. This alignment between technical and economic indicators provides a potentially unique opportunity for options traders to capture potential upward movement, particularly as Corn prices approach critical resistance levels in front of a potential breakout. Identifying Key Resistance Levels for Corn Futures Resistance levels play a crucial role in setting realistic targets and managing expectations. In the current Corn Futures landscape, the primary resistance level for the front contract is observed around 550. For our target contract, ZCN2025 (July 2025), this resistance translates to approximately 485 due to the effects of contango/backwardation. These resistance levels serve as benchmarks for setting exit targets in a Bull Call Spread. If Corn prices rally towards this zone, it could provide a favorable exit opportunity while maintaining a controlled risk-to-reward structure. The Bull Call Spread Strategy Setup In this setup, we employ a Bull Call Spread using options with a June 20, 2025, expiration date. This strategy is ideal for capturing moderate upside movement while limiting downside risk through a capped loss. Here’s the specific setup: Long Position: Buy the 460 Call for a premium of 25.41. Short Position: Sell the 490 Call for a premium of 15.87. By buying the 460 Call and simultaneously selling the 490 Call, we establish a Bull Call Spread that allows us to benefit from price increases up to the 490 strike level. This setup reduces the net cost of the trade while capping the profit potential at the 490 strike price, aligning with our outlook based on resistance levels. Net Premium (Cost): 25.41−15.87=9.54. Reward-to-Risk Analysis A Bull Call Spread provides a straightforward way to define both maximum profit and loss at the outset. Here’s a closer look: Maximum Profit: Achieved if Corn Futures price rises to or above the 490 strike level at expiration = (490−460)−9.54=20.46. Maximum Loss: Limited to the net premium paid = 9.54. Breakeven Point: 469.54, calculated by adding the net premium to the 460 strike. This structure results in a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.14:1. Forward-Looking Trade Plan and Execution Strategy This Bull Call Spread strategy is structured with specific entry and exit conditions in mind: Entry Condition: Triggered once the ZC1! (continuous Corn Futures contract) surpasses the prior month’s high at 434'2. This confirmation aligns the technical breakout with the ongoing bullish trend indicated by the CCI and PPI crossovers. Target Exit: Based on the resistance level, the target for this trade is 485 on the ZCN2025 contract. Reaching this level would allow for a strategic exit with a maximum profit potential. Alternative Exit: If Corn Futures prices fail to sustain the breakout or if technical indicators weaken significantly, an early exit can be considered to limit losses or preserve gains. By setting these clear parameters, the trade plan maintains discipline, helping traders avoid reactive decision-making and align with the predefined strategy. Risk Management Essentials Effective risk management is crucial, especially when trading options. Here are some best practices: Stop-Loss Strategy: For options traders, a stop-loss can be set based on a percentage of the premium paid or by monitoring underlying futures price action. Position Sizing: Limit the size of the position relative to the account balance to avoid overexposure. This is especially relevant for volatile markets like Corn. Discipline and Emotional Control: Stick to the plan, avoid emotional reactions to market noise, and adhere to entry and exit conditions. Risk management ensures that even if the trade does not perform as expected, losses are limited and capital is preserved for future opportunities. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
Corn Reversal: Classical 5 bar trend confirmed!Corn CBOT:ZC1! is showing signs of a reversal, and it has confirmed the following: The daily trend was activated at yesterday's close, with enough momentum to push above 450. The weekly trend is also active, following a classic five-bar trend pattern, indicating a strong reversal signal. Once it reclaims 433, it should quickly move toward the first target of 466. If everything aligns as expected, it could aim for a break of the current trend. For now, it’s important to take it level by level.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by ZelfTrade
5
15% to 35% Upside Ahead for Corn (Divergence Strategy)Corn recently has had the monthly bullish divergence confirmed with Septembers monthly close. This has major implications for corn, as I anticipate corn to now trade up at least 15% from current prices, up to a max move of approximately 35%. Monthly divergence triggers such as this are signals that the prudent trader must pay attention to. This does not mean I anticipate this market to go straight up from here. However, it does mean that, in my opinion, dips are for buying in the Corn market until we reach these upside targets. Have a great week.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
CORN, bound for huge bounce.. Drought will make prices surge!CORN has overextended correction to 5.74 from a high of 6.8. The overreaction is a bit on the unreasonable side with worst DROUGHT in years endangering world's supply. Price is back at 1.0 FIB level. This is beyond bargain / discount. Best to seed at this range. Based on monthly data, the 'trend shift' based on metrics hasn't changed. Reversal is on queue at the current price range. If anything, the market is too generous to offer at very low prices before the potential future valuation. 4H histogram is currently shifting -- with buyers attempting to reverse the trend. Spotted at 5.7 TAYOR Safeguard capital always. ------------- some related news: Central US is now getting worst of the drought. Corn crops are stressed, rivers are running low The middle of the country is extraordinarily dry ByJIM SALTER Associated Press June 30, 2023, 12:06 AM Drought Midwest This photo provided by Mike Shane shows Shane as he stands in his corn field near Peoria, Ill., Tuesday, June 27, 2023. By now, the corn stalks should be 10 feet high. Instead, they’re barely up to Shane’s waist. Illinois and other corn-growing states in the cent...Show more The Associated Press ST. LOUIS -- Mike Shane’s Illinois farm got a nice soaking on May 8, shortly after he planted his corn crop. Since then, rain has been hard to come by. Plenty of storms have ventured close only to fizzle out before making it to Shane’s 200-acre spread near Peoria. “It comes across the Mississippi River and then just disappears,” Shane, 47, said. “My corn looks absolutely terrible right now.” Without substantial rain soon, “I just don’t see any hope for it,” he said. Heavy rain over the winter eased the drought in the West, but now the middle of the country is extraordinarily dry. Crops are stressed, rivers are running low, and cities and towns are anxiously hoping for a break in the weather. Experts say the drought in the central U.S. is the worst since at least 2012, and in some areas, is drawing comparisons to the 1988 drought that devastated corn, wheat and soybean crops. This year, although temperatures have been generally mild through the spring and early days of summer, rainfall has been sorely lacking. The U.S. Drought Monitor, operated by the federal government and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, reports that nearly half of Kansas is in either extreme or exceptional drought condition — the highest drought designation. More than a quarter of Nebraska is in extreme drought, and 13% is in exceptional drought. Arid conditions permeate Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky. The frequency and intensity of droughts and rainfall are increasing due to burning fossil fuels and other human activity that releases greenhouse gases, according to data from a pair of satellites used to measure changes in Earth’s water storage. The study was published in March in the journal Nature Water. Adam Hartman, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said some parts of the central U.S. have been experiencing extreme drought since the winter. In other states, “flash droughts” have popped up over the past 2-3 months. “As a result you’ve see drastic losses in topsoil, subsoil moisture,” Hartman said. “We’ve seen ground water levels start to lower as well. We’ve seen stream flows start to decline.” Crops are feeling the impact. The U.S. Department of Agriculture now rates only half of the U.S. corn crop as good or excellent — the lowest percentage since 1988. Nearly two-thirds of the nation’s corn-growing areas are in drought. “That gives us some indicator that we’re seeing widespread stress on those crops throughout the Corn Belt,” said Krista Swanson, an economist for the National Corn Growers Association. If rains don't arrive soon, Swanson believes total yield could be down about 1 billion bushels from the original projection of 16.7 billion bushels. That won’t necessarily mean higher costs for consumers because much of the corn is used for feed, ethanol or is exported, Swanson said. The real impact is on the farmers. “Their cost-per-acre is the same regardless of what they produce,” Swanson said. “In these years where we have lower production, on the farmer side that’s a challenge.” Water levels are dipping in rivers. The Mississippi River — especially from southern Illinois to the south — is extremely low in many spots. It was just last fall that the river reached or neared record low-water marks in several places, only to bounce back to flood levels in the spring, before the latest drought-fueled decline. Lynn Muench, a senior vice president for the American Waterways Operators, which advocates for the tugboat, towboat and barge industry, said barge capacity is being voluntarily reduced on parts of the Mississippi River. Losing capacity is a financial setback but operators are taking it in stride, Muench said. “We’re a flexible and resilient industry so we’ll keep going,” he said. Colin Wellenkamp, executive director of the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative, said many communities are on edge. The drought last fall cost river communities billions of dollars in losses due to increased energy and water purification costs, lost tourism revenue, commodity losses and other hits. “Now we’re right back into drought again,” Wellenkamp said. So far, impact has been minimal, “but if we don’t get relief in July, that’s all going to change,” he said. On Shane's 200-acre farm, corn should be standing 10 feet tall by now. It's barely to his waist. The leaves are yellowed and Shane isn't certain the ears of corn are even developing. “If that's the case, it's worthless,” he said. But farmers aren't giving up hope. Swanson said the El Nino weather pattern that has taken hold typically means more rain and better growing conditions in the central U.S. “We could see more favorable weather over the next two months, which could have a positive impact,” she said. But even with El Nino, Hartman noted that the seasonal outlook for the summer months projects below-normal rainfall. “This drought could stick around for a little bit,” Hartman said.
PEPPERSTONE:CORNLong
by JSAL
Can Corn Conquer Climate Change?The global food system is under siege from the escalating climate crisis, and corn, a pivotal commodity, is facing a particularly formidable challenge. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and the increased prevalence of pests and diseases are all conspiring to undermine corn production. This article delves into the intricate relationship between corn and climate change, examining the potential consequences for food security, economic stability, and social well-being. Beyond the immediate threats posed by climate change, the impacts on corn production can have far-reaching consequences. Reduced yields can lead to price volatility, making it difficult for low-income households to afford basic food staples. This can contribute to food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly in vulnerable populations. Moreover, corn production is a major source of income for many farmers, especially in developing countries. Climate change-induced crop failures can have devastating consequences for rural livelihoods and economic stability. However, the challenges are not insurmountable. By adopting sustainable agricultural practices, investing in climate-resilient crop varieties, and fostering global cooperation, we can safeguard the future of corn and ensure a more sustainable and equitable food system for generations to come. Climate-smart agriculture, which includes practices like crop rotation, cover cropping, and precision agriculture, can improve soil health, reduce water use, and enhance resilience to climate change. Additionally, breeding for resilience can develop corn varieties that are more tolerant to heat, drought, and pests. Furthermore, promoting crop diversification can help reduce the risk of crop failures and ensure food security even in the face of climate-related challenges. Governments can also play a crucial role in supporting farmers by providing financial assistance, access to climate information, and investments in agricultural research and development. In conclusion, the future of corn is inextricably linked to our ability to adapt to a changing climate. By embracing sustainable practices, investing in innovation, and fostering global cooperation, we can ensure that corn continues to play a vital role in feeding the world. It's a call to action, a challenge to rethink our approach to agriculture, and a reminder that the future of food is in our hands.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by MorMedia
BTC $38-$40k low before macro upsideSorry to break it to y'all, but the BTC chop isn't finished yet. I expect a drop to around the $40ks which coincides with the Nov 22 low from a momentum perspective, unlocking another 10 months of upside like we previously experienced. CAPITALCOM:US500 is the main cause of this, which will cause another capitulation event before assets break correlation and boom. Timeframe can be forecasted using the resistance fan lines. I am a MAXI so trust the analysis, I want $300k+ just as much as you all do. Kappa.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JamesSpindler